Confirmed with Link: Montreal Canadiens Sign Paul Byron to 4-Year Extension ($3.4M AAV)

[Adam Michaels]

How fast will he be when it matters and he’s 32-33?

Good chance he's still going to be fast. And probably an even better chance he won't be around until then.

 

[BaseballCoach]

This would matter if middle six wingers and star defensemen declined the same. But they don't whatsoever.

Players in Byron's situation typically experience a stark decline around when his deal will end while star players, even moreso star defensemen, have a much, much longer peak and typically retain at least 90% of their peak production up until their retirement years. Not the least bit comparable, especially not considering Subban signed his deal smack in the middle of a competitive window for the team. I'd have been for a 29 yo 20 goal scorer to sign a 4 year deal at a manageable cap hit at the time as well.

I'm not sure you are right. When we got Weber before he turned 31, people said he was declining and would not be worth his 7.85 cap hit.

This is true of $9M guys too. Sure they are still better than $3M guys as they age, but if Weber's peak was 29 yo, then logically Subban's probably is too.

My point is not to knock Subban, it's to say that the Byron contract is fine. I suppose the more fundamental disagreement is that I don't think we should plan on it being 5 years before we have a chance to compete. If we don't trust the GM to turn the franchise around, and I don't, then fire him but the new guy will appreciate having Byron secured.

 

[Agalloch]

Very happy about that deal.

 

[BaseballCoach]

As fast as Byron is, Bergevin's successor can be even faster to unload the contract thanks to it containing no restrictive clause.

He's a short-term fix and he can be moved -- provided they don't wait til year 4 of his contract, at the TDL.

Bergevin moved Eller in the middle of his four year $3.5M cap deal. It's entirely flexible. Our new GM will be able to do what is needed at the time!

 

[Belial]

Fine deal and they can still trade him if needed.

Great value, really underrated player.

He scored more ES goals in the last 2 years than guys like Kessel, Wheeler, Pavelski, Max, Couture, Gaudreau, Kuznetsov, Kopitar, Barkov...

 

[BaseballCoach]

GM turdnugget extended someone a full season before their last one again?

you'd think he would have learned by now, but nope...

P.S., really happy with the signing tho

That's how he got Pacioretty on a good deal. Many other teams do the same thing.

 

[Forum93]

He leads by example, a hard working player who exceeds everyone's expectations, I'll take more Byrons anyday.

 

[417]

Very happy for Byron...he was a guy I thought thr Habs should move this season.

But credit to him, he's made himself indispensable to the team and while I was curious about what value he could get back, I'm more than happy with keeping him.

Especially when you see his contract is more than fair and has no trade protection.

A win all around for our best veteran forward.

 

[PhysicX]

Very happy for Byron...he was a guy I thought thr Habs should move this season.

But credit to him, he's made himself indispensable to the team and while I was curious about what value he could get back, I'm more than happy with keeping him.

Especially when you see his contract is more than fair and has no trade protection.

A win all around for our best veteran forward.

The last sentence, as ridiculous as it sounds, is sadly true. Paul Byron really is our best veteran forward.

And I agree with what you wrote. Now, I'm curious as to what happens to our right wingers. Will we sign Joel Ward? Where do Scherbak and McCarron start the year? What kind of production can we expect from Joel Armia?

 

[CauZuki]

Specifically, Petry has a Modified-NTC that kicks in this season. He lists 15 teams he doesn't want to be traded to.

I was lucky to be privy to his no trade list:

1. E
2. D
3. M
4. O
5. N
6. T
7. O
8. N
9.
10.O
11. I
12.L
13.E
14.R
15. S

 

[ZUKI]

This is stupid. Should have traded him.

While the cap is fine, I would never sign a bottom 6 guy for over 3 years. Bergevin just pissed away his chance to get a 1st back for a player that he can easily replace.

Well , first you assume that Byron could get a first back ; MAYBE it could be a late one but we can't be sure of Byron's value .

Here is the % of draft picks making the NHL , % that it will be a top 6 F, top 4 dman or #1 G, and % the player will be a 4th liner or a 6-7 dman .

View media item 2919
Byron is 20 goals scorer and an excellent PK player . He's 29 years old . You think it's a bad thing to keep him instead of getting a draft choice .I think you don't realise that the chance we get a player as good as him are very ,very low

 

[417]

The last sentence, as ridiculous as it sounds, is sadly true. Paul Byron really is our best veteran forward.

And I agree with what you wrote. Now, I'm curious as to what happens to our right wingers. Will we sign Joel Ward? Where do Scherbak and McCarron start the year? What kind of production can we expect from Joel Armia?

I'd be surprised if Ward is signed, there are too many forwards as is.

I also see Scherbak & McCarron starting the year with the Habs, unless they're traded which while not impossible, is unlikely.

Armia I think they're going to show patience with, he's a new player, he needs to get used to new linemates and an adjustment to an increased role & expectations.

I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles at first, but I think there's a player there...he's got size, he can move, he can shoot, good skills and he's one of the few right handed shots who can actually shoot on the team.

I think guys like Ward, Shinkaruk & Chaput are nice stories...but I can't see any of them usurping roles from Scherbak & McCarron.

 

[beowulf]

Seems a little high but for 4 years and the fact he might be one of the only 20 goal scorers this season I can live with it.

 

[Mike Mike Caron]

The fastest man alive.

 

[Habs 4 Life]

Solid player and well worth the money
Would have loved to get that extra top pick but at the same time Byron is the type of player who will not slow down or hurt our chances going forward.
I would have been a little patient though with the extension to be honest, I would have waited to see if a guy like Peca would be able to do the same role and give us the offense that Byron did
Anyways happy about the deal and it's not like it's an untradeable contract

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

A healthy Carey Price is going to be big for this team. Unless he goes down again, you won't need to score as many.

That's still more goals than we can score

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I'd be surprised if Ward is signed, there are too many forwards as is.

I also see Scherbak & McCarron starting the year with the Habs, unless they're traded which while not impossible, is unlikely.

Armia I think they're going to show patience with, he's a new player, he needs to get used to new linemates and an adjustment to an increased role & expectations.

I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles at first, but I think there's a player there...he's got size, he can move, he can shoot, good skills and he's one of the few right handed shots who can actually shoot on the team.

I think guys like Ward, Shinkaruk & Chaput are nice stories...but I can't see any of them usurping roles from Scherbak & McCarron.

Shinkaruk should probably be thought of in the McCarron/Scherbak grouping. Same age, and a former 1st rounder.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

Well , first you assume that Byron could get a first back ; MAYBE it could be a late one but we can't be sure of Byron's value .

Here is the % of draft picks making the NHL , % that it will be a top 6 F, top 4 dman or #1 G, and % the player will be a 4th liner or a 6-7 dman .

View media item 2919
Byron is 20 goals scorer and an excellent PK player . He's 29 years old . You think it's a bad thing to keep him instead of getting a draft choice .I think you don't realise that the chance we get a player as good as him are very ,very low

The Habs arent in a position where having a guy like Byron particularly matters for the next 3 seasons or so. They have plenty of young middle six wingers if they need one and they simply lack the core players to be at all competitive.

The point of picking up more draft selections isn't that an individual pick will pan out. It's to improve your aggregate odds of getting future core players by having more chances.

Byron was one of the few easily and tradeable expedible veteran pieces that might have gotten futures value better than the 4th rounder who aren't much better than just signing undrafted players.

The rebuild has to keep on going until there's some future core players to build around. The lack of young quality in the organization right now means this is going to take a while.

 

[417]

Shinkaruk should probably be thought of in the McCarron/Scherbak grouping. Same age, and a former 1st rounder.

You`re probably right but because he`s not technically a Habs draft pick...I think they`re probably less invested in him than they are the others.

Not to mention that Shinkaruk has already gone through waivers in his career...He`s definitely a better call up options than the the Habs have had in recent years.

Ultimately though, I think he and Chaput get waived and send down to Laval

 

[417]

The Habs arent in a position where having a guy like Byron particularly matters for the next 3 seasons or so. They have plenty of young middle six wingers if they need one and they simply lack the core players to be at all competitive.

The point of picking up more draft selections isn't that an individual pick will pan out. It's to improve your aggregate odds of getting future core players by having more chances.

Byron was one of the few easily and tradeable expedible veteran pieces that might have gotten futures value better than the 4th rounder who aren't much better than just signing undrafted players.

The rebuild has to keep on going until there's some future core players to build around. The lack of young quality in the organization right now means this is going to take a while.

He`s still easily tradeable

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Another idiotic move by our idiot gm. This team should be stockpiling nothing but picks and prospects at this point, not to mention shedding excess salary, not wasting 9.5 million of cap space on bottom third and fourth liners (Shaw, Byron, PLeks). Can't just have a team full of rookies you say? Fine, sign some useful vets off the scrap heap for one year league minimum deals. God I hate this gm with a passion...

It's obvious Bergevin has been asked to do the impossible of rebuilding the team while still trying to be competitive. As much as I hate the big oaf, this is on Ebenezer Molson and the ownership group. They care about profits, first and foremost and seem incapable of sacrifing the short term for the long term haul. But if they did have a better idea of how a team is built and how longterm projections are in hockey, they might realize the error of tgeir ways, as their short term obsession brings longterm profit down significantly as we have recently seen.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I don't mind the idea of competing while rebuilding. The way the league is setup, you can be competing up until the TDL, sell off assets, and then tank the rest of the year and pick at the top of the draft.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

They've got a bottom 5 group of skaters. Nightmare down the middle, almost as bad on left defense and no defensive depth. Deep on wings but only Gallagher is first liner on merit. The only thing that makes them look good is even worse lineups are in the same division in Detroit and Ottawa.

Price is a wildcard who might be anywhere from unremarkable to the most valuable single player in the game over the course of 82 matches, so Montreal is a variable team. Overall health helps Montreal less than most teams, because they are incredibly deep in approximately equivalent level players at both forward and defense, but only 3 guys who have legitmate claims to be above average (Gallagher, Petry and Weber) and its already known that Weber isn't going to have a healthy season.

Being devoid of star power or young players that plausibly could become star players means this is an extraordinarily low upside lineup. The best they can plausibly hope for is to sneak into a playoff spot, but would be facing a division with 3 of the leagues best squads

Realistically and average luck year for Montreal puts them in bottom 10, great luck they are about league average and might get a wild card spot.

My take on rebuilding veterans are that they are great to have around, but you should asset maximize by taking on other team's salary dumps. Byron doesn't just have good value, he had good value compared to cost this year, which makes him worth more to a contender than Montreal. Tatar is more the kind of veteran you'd be interested in Montreal's shoes (bad contract, might rebuild value given playing time). Byron also is bad for playing the spots where the team does have some young NHL level talent that could use the ice time.

By signing him, you are paying Byron a premium for his decline years in his 30s to get him for the next couple years when you aren't competitive. Then his salary will be there in 4-5 years from now when there might be a new core to build around and you want to spend cap space on players that can help you then rather than paying down the bad value years of formerly productive veteran.


In short, I don't think much strategic thought went into this decision beyond they like who Byron was at his physical peak so they want him around longer.

You're partly right, but what you don't seem to consider is that at that cap hit his value won't be affected and inversely, having 3 years more of contract will raise his value if we sell him off.

I don't see a problem with this signing, but signed or unsigned, we'll have to trade him because he'll surely be in decline by the time we'll be competitive again.

I think you might be making a premature link between signing that contraxt and not trading him. I don't think they are mutually exclusive.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

You're partly right, but what you don't seem to consider is that at that cap hit his value won't be affected and inversely, having 3 years more of contract will raise his value if we sell him off.

I don't see a problem with this signing, but signed or unsigned, we'll have to trade him because he'll surely be in decline by the time we'll be competitive again.

I think you might be making a premature link between signing that contraxt and not trading him. I don't think they are mutually exclusive.

Signing him for term takes you out of the deadline Ufa market, which is the most valuable point to sell good cheap support players.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Byron is a sneaky good player. I'm OK with signing him. The Habs obviously believe in him.