Theodore450
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- Sep 10, 2013
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HF Habs: Montreal Canadiens Hockey Ops - Part 3
- Thread starter Adam Michaels
- Start date
Indeed. And that pro scouting seemingly does a good job of looking past superficial assessments of the players they target, ignoring past stat lines and recognizing that many athletes take a few years at the pro level before being able to translate their skills and competencies into impact.
Reinhart, Montour, Bennett, Tkachuk, Forsling, Vaerheage... All players who made significant jumps in performance impact after 25... Meanwhile some around here act with certainty that guys 22-23-24 are done progressing and won't ever be more than what they are now
Whitesnake
If you rebuild, they will come.
- Jan 5, 2003
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What's the percentage of players that will stick around enough on their original team so that the same team can witness that progression? No matter if that's how it works, first there are more players that do not improve. And for the ones who do, the famous ''change of scenery'' is often the reason why. thing is...was it really a change of scenery or just a little more patience?Indeed. And that pro scouting seemingly does a good job of looking past superficial assessments of the players they target, ignoring past stat lines and recognizing that many athletes take a few years at the pro level before being able to translate their skills and competencies into impact.
Reinhart, Montour, Bennett, Tkachuk, Forsling, Vaerheage... All players who made significant jumps in performance impact after 25... Meanwhile some around here act with certainty that guys 22-23-24 are done progressing and won't ever be more than what they are now
But the reality is that team won't wait for a guy they drafted or acquired around 20 to peak at 26. People seem to think that Tage Thompson is an example of it...well he might not have peaked at 20...but it's D+5. That means an entry contract + another one.
Maybe Barbashev...D+7 at St.Louis....yet...D+8 wasn't as good to say the least so they surely thought it was just that 1 year....and then he had to be moved to Vegas to be so far a PPG. At 28.
So players might not be done progressing.....but teams based on a whole lot of factors could be done waiting. And others should have the wisdom to take the right ones. But it's a wheel that turn...you might give up on somebody too early....but you should be able to take players that other teams are giving up too early too...
Interesting question... Would make for an interesting analysis.
I suspect we'd see it higher with teams that have either younger average roster age and/or lower win% (ie non playoff teams)... And probably some correlation between "successful" internal development (played whose peak output seasons occur with drafted team) and team performance over time, though that's a much harder one to isolate given how many variables are at play.
Panthers trading Huberdeau being a prime example... They drafted, developed, then traded him at get optimal point to maximize his value. The team success they enjoyed after trading him quite directly connected to seeing him through to his peak yet the team results improving after he was traded.
Impossible to know for sure I'd say... It's more art than science
Panthers and Huberdeau
D8 before he hit ppg level
D11 he hits 100+
Promptly traded for great return that helped push them over the hump to a cup.
Reinhart in Buffalo is an example of the opposite... Moved right before he hit ppg level, and since he's pushed into the absolute elite level.
Was it timing of individual progression/putting it together or the change of scenery... I doubt it's either/or but rather "both".
Beyond organizational asset management competency, team situation I think is a bigger driver as to wether or not a team will wait. Teams in a "rebuild" phase can & should be excersicing more patience whereas teams trying to push to the next level and need immediate/established impact, or cap space, have more reason to move the asset right away.
Danault is a close to home case...
Traded in D5 for short term help (that didn't stop the Hawks get out of first round), progressed quickly into a high quality top 6 player... I doubt there's much reason to believe he wouldn't have hit similar performance level had he stayed in Chicago, and they obviously would've been better off keeping him & the pick they gave up for Weise/Fleischmann
High quality internal development, culture, and player evaluation are crucial to minimize the glaring screw ups... But as it is more art than science, a healthy dose of humility in not letting "mistakes" bias future decisions, is key imo.
Oilers are an example of the opposite this past summer. The Holloway/Broberg decisions, especially on top of spending cap on Skinner/Henrique, are downright fireable offenses unless they hoist the cup next spring. Horrible internal and external scouting imo
LaP
Registered User
I was advocating for Oilers to match this summer and i'D say the majority of this board wwas like they should not, It's funny that Holloway is having a better season than both Skinner and Henrique. Skinner and Henrique is 6 millions on the cap while Broberg and Holloway is 6.8ish on the cap. I'm not sure what went into the head of their GM but watching the playoffs last year i thought Broberg was one of their best dman during the few games he played.
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salbutera
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- Sep 10, 2019
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Why because Tkachuk is would only agree to a deal to STL or Fla, or is it because Vergaeghe after TBay did not want to leave Fla?
Terrible for decades huh.. Danault + 2nd for Weise + Fleischmann. Weise for Diaz, Byron waiver pickup, Kulak for whatever their names were. The issue is in comparing pro scouting moves on an established team that’s vying for a playoff spot year in year out vs a rebuilding team
Fair... But on the whole being "terrible" doesn't mean every decision was bad.
Aside from Danault (who was more of a prospect than an established pro), Petry & recently Matheson, our track record of acquiring top 6 or top pairing caliber assets who go on to perform above their previous level is pretty poor.
The Panthers traded for Montour, Bennett & Reinhart, none of them would've or could've blocked a trade to Montreal. Vearhage signed a 2yr 1M$ deal with Florida after he went unqualified by Tampa... Hard to imagine he would've turned down even a modestly better offer anywhere else (& the bolts likely accept any pick offer for his RFA rights).
The Real Timo
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- Jun 18, 2019
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If you read deeper into it, it looks like he was mostly mad at the refs…. And of course they dressed it up by saying there’s probably gonna be some serious changes coming soon
Whitesnake
If you rebuild, they will come.
- Jan 5, 2003
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So in essence, it's 2 things. You either develop patience while being able to read that the said player has in him as far as tangibles and intangibles to develop. Or you are not too sure YET are able, when you trade him, to get significant value for him. So while you might see him flourish elsewhere, you might not care as much based on the return.
One thing is sure though...the cap era is making this is a tougher era to be as patient as you could be. But you do need a perfect recipe in coaching and in management so that the potential you draft becomes the talent you develop.
Steve Shutt
Don't Poke the Bear
- May 31, 2007
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Good teams pick up players from bottom feeders. All GMs should want to trade with the guys who can't evaluate their own players. The habs have been the sucker for that a few times over the years with different GMs. Of course before the '90s the habs had enough good players they would jetison competent players to make room.Indeed. And that pro scouting seemingly does a good job of looking past superficial assessments of the players they target, ignoring past stat lines and recognizing that many athletes take a few years at the pro level before being able to translate their skills and competencies into impact.
Reinhart, Montour, Bennett, Tkachuk, Forsling, Vaerheage... All players who made significant jumps in performance impact after 25... Meanwhile some around here act with certainty that guys 22-23-24 are done progressing and won't ever be more than what they are now
Has Hughes and Gorton done a good job? It doesn't seem that any trade is panning out, they rewarded Slaf with a crazy contract prematurely.
They got rid of Kovasevic when in reality he was at least the perfect #7 D.
They traded Allen whose leadership is sorely missed.
They hired a coaching staff with zero experience...
They are being too slow to address some needs and are sitting idly by while losing is becoming ok.
This season is a serious step backwards.
They got rid of Kovasevic when in reality he was at least the perfect #7 D.
They traded Allen whose leadership is sorely missed.
They hired a coaching staff with zero experience...
They are being too slow to address some needs and are sitting idly by while losing is becoming ok.
This season is a serious step backwards.
Vachon23
Registered User
I would bring Vincent and Richardson as assistant next year yes.
There next offseason will be crucial for them. They can’t fu** up again next year or they will have questions to answers
Get used to it ,as long as they keep this lame duck coaching staff the fans are screwed and Molson could care less .People forget that before they hired Gorton/Hughes Molson was willing to extend bergeven.
Richardson will not want an asst job. He will be looking for a head coach opening.
There is NO way to know if the coaching staff is bad until they are closer to completing the lineup.
Heffyhoof
So happy to be glad to be pleased to meet you.
- Jan 17, 2016
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Marty isn't the first head coach on a rebuilding team nor would he be the first to be fired. It's open season for criticizing doubly so as more and more young players join the team.
Habby4Life
First pick overall goes to the Montreal Canadiens
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I know the D squad loved him. Wifi had a lot of good things to say about him. Molson has the cash, if they tossed enough his way, would him come. Worth a try, he would be a huge improvement over Robidas.
There is no cap on coaching, and front office staff but I wonder why teams (rich teams) don't use $$ to their advantage and pillage all the best people. Of course, some won't come for the money but some would. It seems like the one spot rich teams can exploit with abandon.
HuGort
Registered User
They have a mess of things. A wasted 3 years. Hard to believe but they are doing worse than Bergevin
