Mo Rielly - "Our Norris Trophy Candidate"

[Coaches Coroner]

dumb thread is dumb, more at 11

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Not the best dman on the team?

- most minutes
- toughest usage/qoc
- best offensive numbers (by a lot)
- best xgf%

To many give aways. Dumb give aways. Cost us a couple goals last night again. He had a gross game. Any pressure on him he’s panicky . That’s why he gives the puck away. Bad give aways.he starts lots in the offensive zone.
I like him but he’s annoying

 

[Mr Hockey]

I dont see Rielly as a true Norris candidate ever but he is the top dman on this team

 

[zeke]

Rielly has arguably the toughest usage and arguably the best performance of these 5 guys this year.

 

[Gallagbi]

You don't need to be amazing defensively to win a Norris, but you do need to drive offense better than he does when you have the defensive holes he does.

 

[ponder]

He's elite offensively, great skater and puck handler, and IMO about average defensively. He's got a big defensive edge over a tonne of other offensive dmen - i.e. comparing him to Tyson Barrie last year, there's absolutely no comparison, Mo is MILES ahead. But when you compare him to guys who are really strong in their own end (like Brodie and Muzzin, for example), he's well behind.

I agree that he's not in the conversation for top dman in the league, and I wouldn't have him top 5 either, but he's still really good. I think him, Muzzin and Brodie all have very different games, but similar overall even-strength impact:

• Mo is the best of the 3 offensively by a pretty wide margin, and the best puck mover, but the weakest of the 3 defensively. For physicality he's between Muzzin and Brodie, decently physical but isn't a punishing hitter like Muzzin
• Brodie is the best defensively, and also a very good puck mover. But offensively he's more solid than a real threat, and he's the least physical of the 3
• Muzzin is the least mobile of the 3, but by far the most physical, devastating hitter, and almost as good as Brodie defensively. Like Brodie, more solid than dangerous offensively (I'd say better shot but less elusive with the puck)

I think Rielly, Muzzin and Brodie are all legit top pairing dmen, and really good players. Rielly fits the #1 dman mold the most, while Muzzin/Brodie are more #2s, as people are often looking for the high offensive talent in a #1 dman, but at even strength I feel like all 3 of them have similar levels of impact (all quite positive).

 

[zeke]

Game Score Value Added, from theathletic.com:

1. Makar 3.66
2. Hedman 3.34
3. Hamilton 3.19
4. Fox 3.17
5. McAvoy 2.81
6. Rielly 2.79
7. Pietrangelo 2.42
8. Theodore 2.42
9. Josi 2.41
10. Carlson 2.29

 

[Mr Hockey]

Game Score Value Added, from theathletic.com:

1. Makar 3.66
2. Hedman 3.34
3. Hamilton 3.19
4. Fox 3.17
5. McAvoy 2.81
6. Rielly 2.79
7. Pietrangelo 2.42
8. Theodore 2.42
9. Josi 2.41
10. Carlson 2.29

what does this mean? "Game Score Value Added,"

 

[CabanaBoy5]

He's a very good defenceman, but definitely not elite. I don't even think he's an elite offensive dman. My problem with him is that he's overrated, and claiming he's a Norris candidate this year is a huge stretch. He's just prone to too many mistakes in his own end and that deficiency is only partially negated by the points he gets.

 

[Griffin76]

He's not great defensively, not going to argue that. But he's nowhere near the tire fire that he's made out to be. He's attentive to coverage, uses an active stick to break up plays, and is capable along the boards. He gambles for offense by joining in rushes which can lead to getting caught up ice, attempts risky breakout passes that get picked off, and sometimes blows the zone early. He also makes the mistakes that every single defenseman in the league does, including the elite ones, which include blown coverages, getting walked, or bad turnovers. He does these more than Pietrangelo or Hedman do, but they do not play mistake free hockey. It's on fans to understand that when evaluating their own players; expectations must be realistic.

The important thing with Rielly is that the offense he brings far outweighs his moderate defensive shortcomings. I was looking at the stats the other day and at ES he had something like 62% xGF and 66% high danger chances since the start of February. (For the whole season he's at 55%xGF and 56% HDCF) The point is that he brings so, so much to the table. He might be below average defensively for a top pairing defender, but he's astonishingly good offensively.

What I've been writing in all of these Rielly threads is that we're an offensive team built around superstar forwards. Having a defenseman like Rielly who can play elite level offense to go with our top forwards is absolutely huge and we would be desperate to get a guy like him if we didn't have one. It's not an accident that he plays 2 minutes a game more than any other defenseman we have. We've got a real nice top4 going and 3/4 of them are really quite good defensively. Having an offensive catalyst like Rielly gives us a nice balance of abilities and is integral to the type of team that Keefe and Dubas want to see on the ice. Sure, it would be nice if Rielly could defend like Brodie or Muzzin do, but we don't need him to be Lidstrom to be our #1. He's really a fantastic hockey player.

The nerve. I mean how dare you come on here and spew a level headed, well thought out post like this.

 

[PromisedLand]

historically norris trophy has been given to the d-men who score alot. Lidstrom is an outlier. The guy was not only an offensive beast but also defensive beast. Haven't see a d-man of Lidstrom's caliber yet in NHL yet since his prime. But also note that Lidstrom had solid players like Datsyuk , Zetterberg etc... who played 2 way games and did not cheat for offense a lot.

Putting things in context I think Rielly has done fairly well IMO given the number of 2 way forwards we have. Rielly's PP achievements have to improve (including a solid point shot) and I think he still has a chance.

That said, putting Mo in norris conversation based on point production is not out of the general realm; it has been like that for a while.

PK Subban and Erik Karlsson winning norris trophy is an example of how d-men don't have to be a stud defensively as long as they put up points.

 

[zeke]

Defense Only Numbers

Of 120 dmen with 350+ 5v5 minutes (I.e. approximate "top-4 dmen"):

Only "#1 dmen" listed:

Goals against per 60min

7. Ekblad 1.47
16. Weber 1.71
17. Rielly 1.73
18. Doughty 1.73
25. Slavin 1.82
28. Letang 1.86
32. Hedman 1.98
33. Jones 1.99
34. Spurgeon 2.00
37. Heiskenen 2.02
41. Fox 2.06
44. Schmidt 2.09
47. McAvoy 2.13
48. Severson 2.13
51. Faulk 2.19
52. Pelech 2.21
59. Pionk 2.31
63. Chychrun 2.34
72. Keith 2.45
77. Giordano 2.51
80. Fowler 2.56
97. Carlson 2.90
99. Nurse 2.92
103. Josi 2.99
106. Provorov 3.05
116. Burns 3.61
117. Dahlin 3.62
118. Chabot 3.64


Expected Goals Against per60min

5. Weber 1.72
8. Heiskanen 1.78
10. Pelech 1.79
11. Fox 1.80
19. Spurgeon 1.88
30. Ekblad 1.97
39. Faulk 2.08
45. McAvoy 2.10
47. Carlson 2.12
55. Josi 2.17
57. Pionk 2.18
60. Hedman 2.18
68. Slavin 2.28
72. Provorov 2.31
75. Doughty 2.32
77. Rielly 2.33
80. Fowler 2.36
82. Chychrun 2.36
87. Letang 2.39
90. Severson 2.42
92. Jones 2.42
94. Burns 2.46
102. Giordano 2.61
104. Schmidt 2.66
105. Dahlin 2.68
109. Nurse 2.75
112. Chabot 2.84
118. Keith 3.03

 

[Bluelines]

TJ is our best defender and best defenceman, by default that means Mo is not our best candidate for Norris.

 

[Bluelines]

View attachment 407759

Rielly has arguably the toughest usage and arguably the best performance of these 5 guys this year.

Where is Brodie on that list for comparison?

 

[Mr Hockey]

TJ is our best defender and best defenceman, by default that means Mo is not our best candidate for Norris.

TJ skill set is limited and he focuses on the D side of the game, over an 80 game season, Rielly is going to win u a lot more games with his ability to be very offensive with decent defense ... Rielly is by far the better dman ... imo

 

[zeke]

Where is Brodie on that list for comparison?

GA/60

13. Brodie 1.61
17. Rielly 1.73

xGA/60

60. Brodie 2.18
77. Rielly 2.33

 

[Teeder Keon]

I’ll take this anytime from my d man

GP	G	A	P	+/-
30	3	21	24	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

and this
Career

GP	G	A	P	+/-
547	57	237	294	-28

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

except for the +-

60-80point seasons yes please

 

[Faltorvo]

On last night's broadcast, I was bothered by Cuthbert and Galley calling Rielly a "Norris-trophy candidate".

Sure, Mo has a lot of offensive upside and has quite a few points so far this year. But the guy is a complete crapshoot in his own end and is more of a defensive liability.

My definition of a Norris Trophy winner is a guy who is solid at BOTH ends of the rink. To me, Lidstrom is the ultimate definition of a Norris trophy winner. Solid at both ends, played the PP and PK and someone you can leave out there 30 minutes a game.

3rd in points for defensemen and 6th in D +/-

and you still find room to bitch???

and your standard is arguably the 2nd best D man in history???

LOLZZZZZZ

 

[Morbo]

historically norris trophy has been given to the d-men who score alot. Lidstrom is an outlier. The guy was not only an offensive beast but also defensive beast. Haven't see a d-man of Lidstrom's caliber yet in NHL yet since his prime. But also note that Lidstrom had solid players like Datsyuk , Zetterberg etc... who played 2 way games and did not cheat for offense a lot.

Putting things in context I think Rielly has done fairly well IMO given the number of 2 way forwards we have. Rielly's PP achievements have to improve (including a solid point shot) and I think he still has a chance.

That said, putting Mo in norris conversation based on point production is not out of the general realm; it has been like that for a while.

PK Subban and Erik Karlsson winning norris trophy is an example of how d-men don't have to be a stud defensively as long as they put up points.

ya...Rielly didn't get a single 1st place vote in his 72 point season though.

If it didn't happen then, it's hard to imagine it ever happening.

 

[Notsince67]

Leafs lose queuing so called fans to shit all over the leafs core.
Criticism about the game is fine if supported by facts.
Piling on a guy like Rielly who some here were recently bold enough to rank below Holl is another level of stupidity.
Go find another team to torment

 

[Carltons Cup]

3rd in points for defensemen and 6th in D +/-

and you still find room to bitch???

and your standard is arguably the 2nd best D man in history???

LOLZZZZZZ

So your standard is points then?

And 6th in +/-.....? Yeah, because that stat says a lot these days.

 

[zeke]

So your standard is points then?

And 6th in +/-.....? Yeah, because that stat says a lot these days.

xGF% of #1 dmen

1. Pelech 62.8%
2. Makar 61.5%
3. Weber 59.7%
4. Fox 58.6%
5. Spurgeon 57.5%
6. Rielly 56.2%
7. McAvoy 54.4%
8. Ekblad 54.3%
9. Heiskanen 54.0%
10. Pionk 53.6%
11. Slavin 53.1%
12. Nurse 52.6%
13. Faulk 52.1%
14. Hedman 51.4%
15. Josi 51.4%
16. Pietrangelo 50.5%
17. Severson 50.4%
18. Burns 49.4%
19. Carlson 48.5%
20. Provorov 48.3%
21. Chychrun 48.1%
22. Fowler 47.9%
23. Schmidt 47.4%
24. Letang 47.4%
25. Chabot 46.1%
26. Giordano 46.1%
27. Hronek 45.1%
28. Doughty 44.7%
29. Dahlin 44.7%
30. Jones 43.2%
31. Keith 42.4%


xGF% Relative to team

1. Pionk +6.6
2. Pelech +6.3
3. Fox +4.6
4. McAvoy +4.0
5. Makar +2.4
6. Faulk +2.4
7. Weber +2.1
8. Rielly +1.9
9. Schmidt +1.7
10. Severson +1.6
11. Fowler +1.0
12. Chychrun +0.8
13. Nurse +0.7
14. Josi +0.5
15. Spurgeon +0.4
16. Heiskanen +0.2
17. Burns +0.1
18. Hronek 0.0
19. Slavin -0.4
20. Doughty -0.5
21. Hedman -0.7
22. Chabot -0.9
23. Pietrangelo -1.4
24. Ekblad -1.6
25. Provoriv -1.6
26. Dahlin -1.7
27. Letang -1.9
28. Carlson -2.1
29. Jones -2.5
30. Giordano -4.5
31. Keith -4.8


Qoc - opponents toi%

1. Nurse 30.09
2. Weber 29.89
3. Pionk 29.88
4. Chabot 29.71
5. Schmidt 29.69
6. Rielly 29.59
7. Pietrangelo 29.53
8. Pelech 29.46
9. Ekblad 29.40
10. Fox 29.40
11. Burns 29.40
12. Chychrun 29.39
13. Giordano 29.36
14. Doughty 29.35
15. Jones 29.34
16. Fowler 29.32
17. Faulk 29.29
18. Hronek 29.22
19. Spurgeon 29.19
20. Makar 29.17
21. Slavin 29.17
22. Carlson 29.15
23. Letang 29.15
24. Heiskanen 29.10
25. Provorov 29.09
26. McAvoy 28.96
27. Keith 28.95
28. Josi 28.95
29. Hedman 28.75
30. Dahlin 28.60
31. Severson 28.56


So not only is Rielly putting up excellent numbers by every measure, but unlike many "#1 dmen" - even "Norris dmen" **cough Hedman Josi cough** - Rielly doesn't get sheltered usage behind a shutdown pair, but plays full time on the top shutdown pair.

In fact, the only #1 dman ahead of Rielly in xgf and xgfrel, that also plays against the toughest qoc, is Weber.

 

[Notsince67]

xGF% of #1 dmen

1. Pelech 62.8%
2. Makar 61.5%
3. Weber 59.7%
4. Fox 58.6%
5. Spurgeon 57.5%
6. Rielly 56.2%
7. McAvoy 54.4%
8. Ekblad 54.3%
9. Heiskanen 54.0%
10. Pionk 53.6%
11. Slavin 53.1%
12. Nurse 52.6%
13. Faulk 52.1%
14. Hedman 51.4%
15. Josi 51.4%
16. Pietrangelo 50.5%
17. Severson 50.4%
18. Burns 49.4%
19. Carlson 48.5%
20. Provorov 48.3%
21. Chychrun 48.1%
22. Fowler 47.9%
23. Schmidt 47.4%
24. Letang 47.4%
25. Chabot 46.1%
26. Giordano 46.1%
27. Hronek 45.1%
28. Doughty 44.7%
29. Dahlin 44.7%
30. Jones 43.2%
31. Keith 42.4%


xGF% Relative to team

1. Pionk +6.6
2. Pelech +6.3
3. Fox +4.6
4. McAvoy +4.0
5. Makar +2.4
6. Faulk +2.4
7. Weber +2.1
8. Rielly +1.9
9. Schmidt +1.7
10. Severson +1.6
11. Fowler +1.0
12. Chychrun +0.8
13. Nurse +0.7
14. Josi +0.5
15. Spurgeon +0.4
16. Heiskanen +0.2
17. Burns +0.1
18. Hronek 0.0
19. Slavin -0.4
20. Doughty -0.5
21. Hedman -0.7
22. Chabot -0.9
23. Pietrangelo -1.4
24. Ekblad -1.6
25. Provoriv -1.6
26. Dahlin -1.7
27. Letang -1.9
28. Carlson -2.1
29. Jones -2.5
30. Giordano -4.5
31. Keith -4.8


Qoc - opponents toi%

1. Nurse 30.09
2. Weber 29.89
3. Pionk 29.88
4. Chabot 29.71
5. Schmidt 29.69
6. Rielly 29.59
7. Pietrangelo 29.53
8. Pelech 29.46
9. Ekblad 29.40
10. Fox 29.40
11. Burns 29.40
12. Chychrun 29.39
13. Giordano 29.36
14. Doughty 29.35
15. Jones 29.34
16. Fowler 29.32
17. Faulk 29.29
18. Hronek 29.22
19. Spurgeon 29.19
20. Makar 29.17
21. Slavin 29.17
22. Carlson 29.15
23. Letang 29.15
24. Heiskanen 29.10
25. Provorov 29.09
26. McAvoy 28.96
27. Keith 28.95
28. Josi 28.95
29. Hedman 28.75
30. Dahlin 28.60
31. Severson 28.56


So not only is Rielly putting up excellent numbers by every measure, but unlike many "#1 dmen" - even "Norris dmen" **cough Hedman Josi cough** - Rielly doesn't get sheltered usage behind a shutdown pair, but plays full time on the top shutdown pair.

In fact, the only #1 dman ahead of Rielly in xgf and xgfrel, that also plays against the toughest qoc, is Weber.

 

[Mr Hockey]

xGF% of #1 dmen

1. Pelech 62.8%
2. Makar 61.5%
3. Weber 59.7%
4. Fox 58.6%
5. Spurgeon 57.5%
6. Rielly 56.2%
7. McAvoy 54.4%
8. Ekblad 54.3%
9. Heiskanen 54.0%
10. Pionk 53.6%
11. Slavin 53.1%
12. Nurse 52.6%
13. Faulk 52.1%
14. Hedman 51.4%
15. Josi 51.4%
16. Pietrangelo 50.5%
17. Severson 50.4%
18. Burns 49.4%
19. Carlson 48.5%
20. Provorov 48.3%
21. Chychrun 48.1%
22. Fowler 47.9%
23. Schmidt 47.4%
24. Letang 47.4%
25. Chabot 46.1%
26. Giordano 46.1%
27. Hronek 45.1%
28. Doughty 44.7%
29. Dahlin 44.7%
30. Jones 43.2%
31. Keith 42.4%


xGF% Relative to team

1. Pionk +6.6
2. Pelech +6.3
3. Fox +4.6
4. McAvoy +4.0
5. Makar +2.4
6. Faulk +2.4
7. Weber +2.1
8. Rielly +1.9
9. Schmidt +1.7
10. Severson +1.6
11. Fowler +1.0
12. Chychrun +0.8
13. Nurse +0.7
14. Josi +0.5
15. Spurgeon +0.4
16. Heiskanen +0.2
17. Burns +0.1
18. Hronek 0.0
19. Slavin -0.4
20. Doughty -0.5
21. Hedman -0.7
22. Chabot -0.9
23. Pietrangelo -1.4
24. Ekblad -1.6
25. Provoriv -1.6
26. Dahlin -1.7
27. Letang -1.9
28. Carlson -2.1
29. Jones -2.5
30. Giordano -4.5
31. Keith -4.8


Qoc - opponents toi%

1. Nurse 30.09
2. Weber 29.89
3. Pionk 29.88
4. Chabot 29.71
5. Schmidt 29.69
6. Rielly 29.59
7. Pietrangelo 29.53
8. Pelech 29.46
9. Ekblad 29.40
10. Fox 29.40
11. Burns 29.40
12. Chychrun 29.39
13. Giordano 29.36
14. Doughty 29.35
15. Jones 29.34
16. Fowler 29.32
17. Faulk 29.29
18. Hronek 29.22
19. Spurgeon 29.19
20. Makar 29.17
21. Slavin 29.17
22. Carlson 29.15
23. Letang 29.15
24. Heiskanen 29.10
25. Provorov 29.09
26. McAvoy 28.96
27. Keith 28.95
28. Josi 28.95
29. Hedman 28.75
30. Dahlin 28.60
31. Severson 28.56


So not only is Rielly putting up excellent numbers by every measure, but unlike many "#1 dmen" - even "Norris dmen" **cough Hedman Josi cough** - Rielly doesn't get sheltered usage behind a shutdown pair, but plays full time on the top shutdown pair.

In fact, the only #1 dman ahead of Rielly in xgf and xgfrel, that also plays against the toughest qoc, is Weber.

you know Muzzin and Holl have better xGF% and xGF% Rel at 5vs5 than Rielly via naturalstattrick

 

[Superstar]

ya...Rielly didn't get a single 1st place vote in his 72 point season though.

If it didn't happen then, it's hard to imagine it ever happening.

Rielly played awesome that year, much better than Hedman...makes me sick how biased against the Leafs the media are...the advertisement for Hedman getting a nomination was 3 seasons of 50 plus points...really?! When is that a nod for the Norris in a single year?!

At least Bob McKenzie admitted to voting Rielly for 3rd place...I like Bob, decent guy...one of the few media guys I like.