I would say Willie was a lot more like Gaudreau, Huberdeau, Kadri in that he had no history of this level of production so his return to norm was almost guaranteed and when it happened it was like hitting a wall. In terms of being repeatable, doing it at 27 is not at all the same as doing it at 22-23 and the drop off fits with a typical hot half season for a lot of players. A player getting compensated like this for a mid career 50 game spike is like a lottery win. Good for Willie but you would think since Kadri and Huberdeau actually happened to Treliving he would have had a clue.
Marner had ups and downs but players don't give discounts for an injured season, especially when he was still on a 100 pt pace. I can't disagree that Mitch has way less leverage relative to his current salary but we know these guys use internal comps and his resume is three years of a 100 point clip so he will be trying to use Willie as his starting point. I am just guessing like you, but I don't expect him to be thinking team friendly or looking at legit external comparisons when the other two just hit home runs and I don't see Tre as any better of a negotiator than KD so it could be a rough one.
Domi season stats with Matthews are much much better than Marners. In pretty much all categories, this is just one of course...but check out natural stat trick and you will see that Domi's stats with Matthews are across the board generally better, in some cases alot better.
3.5 vs 11 million:
Domi with Matthews:
Total assists per 60 1.42
First assists per 60: 1.42
Marner with Matthews:
total assist per 60: 1.24
First assists per 60: 0.83
Linemates matter! Marner is benefitting from Matthews just as 3.5 million Domi. Maybe more even.
5vs5: In 11 games last playoffs, Marner had 2 goals and 6 points.
5vs5: In 3 games this playoffs, Domi has 1 goal and 3 points.
In 11 playoff games last season, Marner had 5 high danger shots total. Marner hasn't scored a high danger shot in the past 5 post-seasons.
In 3 playoff games this season, Domi has 5 high danger shots and 1 goal.
At what point do we stop making excuses for Marner... he's been blessed his entire career with wlite liblnemates, other players certainly have the same excuses and much more to contend with.
For 11 million since 2019, we should be expecting dominance... at least intermittently.
I don't think Marner has looked dominant for one shift let alone even a period. He looks average and more often than not overwhelmed like a teenager against men.