Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Superstar]

Guys like Kypreos or Kypreos himself? Not that it matters everyone can speculate.

Kypreos.

 

[LeafEgo]

With Draisatl's contract you have to adjust for an inflated cap which wasn't anounced until a few months after he signed. It sounds minimal but it could count for about a 4% increase. All in all I have Marner in the 12.75-13.5M range. Anything above this and it's Tre being desperate imo.

The people who negotiated Drai's contract were well aware what the cap was likely to be next season.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Kypreos.

He may have guessed correctly.

 

[Antropovsky]

Only if the rest of the team did as well.

Lol no, but Marner fans have been preparing to say "I told you so" for going on six years now.

Marner wears an "A" and is paid to be a face of this team. When two different sports networks run intermission segments both focused on your $11 million assistant captain not battling at all... you’ve got a big problem. Especially when your team has one playoff series win in the seven years he's been in the league.

He also had the nerve to say after losing the series, “It’s a war out there, the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win for a reason.” Talk about being tone-deaf.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Lol no, but Marner fans have been preparing to say "I told you so" for going on six years now.

Marner wears an "A" and is paid to be a face of this team. When two different sports networks run intermission segments both focused on your $11 million assistant captain not battling at all... you’ve got a big problem. Especially when your team has one playoff series win in the seven years he's been in the league.

He also had the nerve to say after losing the series, “It’s a war out there, the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win for a reason.” Talk about being tone-deaf.

Lol.

 

[Smif]

The people who negotiated Drai's contract were well aware what the cap was likely to be next season.

The major increases were announced January 31st, 2025.....

Leon signed in September

 

[authentic]

Why can’t our 10mil plus guys activate GODmode like McD, Drai, Pastra, Marchand, Tkachuk, Kuch, Point, heck even Nic Paul.

Did our boys made the opposing goalies looked great or did the opposing goalies made our boys looked bad? Considering the common denominator is not the goalie but our Core. I am leaning toward our guys were making the opposing goalies looked great.

3 of the teams who’ve eliminated us went on to the Cup finals in the past 6 seasons, and we’ve faced a Vezina winner every series we’ve played who went on to shut down teams that advanced even worse than they shut us down. I don’t see the need to gloss over these obvious facts, there’s deserved criticism then there’s just making up stories

 

[ACC1224]

The major increases were announced January 31st, 2025.....

Leon signed in September

I think the belief is he would sign the same deal if he were UFA this year which of course is a ridiculous thought.
Not sure why he’s even brought up, he’s not a comparable to Marner.

 

[IPS]

The major increases were announced January 31st, 2025.....

Leon signed in September

Just curious what % of the cap did Leon sign for in your perspective?

The NHL had already guaranteed at minimum 92.5 million for 2025-2026 before Drai signed.

 

[Dekes For Days]

3 of the teams who’ve eliminated us went on to the Cup finals in the past 6 seasons, and we’ve faced a Vezina winner every series we’ve played who went on to shut down teams that advanced even worse than they shut us down.

Actually, 4 of the last 6 have gone to the cup finals. 2019 Boston, 2021 Montreal, 2022 Tampa, and 2023 Florida.

And you're absolutely right about the goalies. We've faced some spectacular goaltending, and not only did almost all of them put up even better goaltending against other teams in those years, they've put up that level of goaltending throughout their entire playoff careers. The weighted average career playoff SV% of the goalies we faced is 0.921, which is almost identical to the SV% we've faced.

 

[Smif]

Just curious what % of the cap did Leon sign for in your perspective?

The NHL had already guaranteed at minimum 92.5 million for 2025-2026 before Drai signed.

When did they guarantee that number?

 

[authentic]

Actually, 4 of the last 6 have gone to the cup finals. 2019 Boston, 2021 Montreal, 2022 Tampa, and 2023 Florida.

And you're absolutely right about the goalies. We've faced some spectacular goaltending, and not only did almost all of them put up even better goaltending against other teams in those years, they've put up that level of goaltending throughout their entire playoff careers. The weighted average career playoff SV% of the goalies we faced is 0.921, which is almost identical to the SV% we've faced.

Oh right, I wasn’t even thinking about Florida, only our 1st round opponents. That’s a unique situation to face every single series for 9 straight seasons, and the only 9 seasons of your career. I don’t believe I’ve heard of anything close to this regarding another team or group of players.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

The major increases were announced January 31st, 2025.....

Leon signed in September

Everyone knew the cap was shooting up. That's why Matthews signed a 4 year deal.

 

[Gabriel426]

3 of the teams who’ve eliminated us went on to the Cup finals in the past 6 seasons, and we’ve faced a Vezina winner every series we’ve played who went on to shut down teams that advanced even worse than they shut us down. I don’t see the need to gloss over these obvious facts, there’s deserved criticism then there’s just making up stories

1. So half the teams eliminated us just beat us without reaching the finals
2. Is the Leafs goal over the past 6 seasons is to win a playoff round or win a Cup?
3. Had any past Cup winners won the Cup by not facing Vezina type goaltending?
4. How many teams had three 10mil plus players on their roster over the past 6 playoffs and what is their playoffs records?

Come on, our boys are choke artists and if any other teams played the way they did with same playoffs results, we would all be trolling them nonstop instead of defending them.

 

[Leaf Fans]

1. So half the teams eliminated us just beat us without reaching the finals
2. Is the Leafs goal over the past 6 seasons is to win a playoff round or win a Cup?
3. Had any past Cup winners won the Cup by not facing Vezina type goaltending?
4. How many teams had three 10mil plus players on their roster over the past 6 playoffs and what is their playoffs records?

Come on, our boys are choke artists and if any other teams played the way they did with same playoffs results, we would all be trolling them nonstop instead of defending them.

Yes, half the teams are eliminated every round.
Win the Cup.
Probably.
Irrelevant.
Our guys will play. If they lose it will be because they aren't good enough.

 

[LeafEgo]

The major increases were announced January 31st, 2025.....

Leon signed in September

The cap ceiling is the primary driver of compensation as it produces the cap percentage.

What projected cap ceiling do you think Draisatl's team brought to the negotiating table?

Remember Drai is paying them over 5M to represent him. It's a large agency with vast resources.

I think the belief is he would sign the same deal if he were UFA this year which of course is a ridiculous thought.
Not sure why he’s even brought up, he’s not a comparable to Marner.

How much more would he get? Remember Ranta just signed for 12M.

Drai is a useful reference point as he represents both the max of the current spectrum and part of the tier above Marner.

If you come up with an AAV that is close to Drai, you know you have gone terribly wrong and need to start over again.

 

[sunstersun]

Knies 8-9million, Matthews 13.2 million, Marner 12 million.

That's an insanely expensive first line. It better show up in the postseason.

 

[francis246]

Sounds like he will be playing defense a little bit tonight according to Craig Berube

 

[tuckerintensity]

If you come up with an AAV that is close to Drai, you know you have gone terribly wrong and need to start over again.

The thing is, that's simply not true. The AAV benchmark is a moving target because the cap keeps rising. Eventually Draisaitl's AAV is gonna be passed by a bunch of players, just like McDavid's was even though he is the best player in the world.

% of the cap means way more and Draisaitl's is still very high, 15.2% when he signed it. That's the second highest in the league (behind McDavid). The thing is, and I'm not suggesting Marner make this and am only pointing out why AAV isn't the correct measure, if someone signs for 13.5 now, they become the second highest AAV in the league. Ahead of guys like MacKinnon, Matthews, and McDavid, who that person will not be as good as, but their AAV as a percentage of the cap at signing would be significantly less than any of them, including Leon.

You may not like that this is how it works, but this is how it works.

 

[Aashir]

The thing is, that's simply not true. The AAV benchmark is a moving target because the cap keeps rising. Eventually Draisaitl's AAV is gonna be passed by a bunch of players, just like McDavid's was even though he is the best player in the world.

% of the cap means way more and Draisaitl's is still very high, 15.2% when he signed it. That's the second highest in the league (behind McDavid). The thing is, and I'm not suggesting Marner make this and am only pointing out why AAV isn't the correct measure, if someone signs for 13.5 now, they become the second highest AAV in the league. Ahead of guys like MacKinnon, Matthews, and McDavid, who that person will not be as good as, but their AAV as a percentage of the cap at signing would be significantly less than any of them, including Leon.

You may not like that this is how it works, but this is how it works.

Mcdavids been passed by 3 guys total, 1s an overpayment and 1s a fair deal, 1 is a steal. Matthews being the overpayment if it’s not clear

Marner shouldn’t be near draisaitl in AAV nor cap %. Marner should be very close to pastrnak as he isn’t the better player, so 13.47% or 12.5 on a 92.5 million dollar deal. That’s his ceiling IMO and anything more is a clear overpayment similar to nylander, and matthews.

 

[Antropovsky]

https://insidetherink.com/mitch-marners-status-with-toronto-maple-leafs-still-yet-to-be-determined/

The Toronto Maple Leafs might be reaching a crossroads with unrestricted free agent winger Mitch Marner, as NHL insider Elliotte Friedman reported recently that the star forward is not close to deciding whether he wants to get to free agency. Marner will become an unrestricted free agent and will be free to sign with other teams on July 1, which has led to rumors of potential trades involving the 27-year-old forward.

“Unless there’s something going on that I’m not seeing right now, which is always possible, I don’t sense Mitch Marner is anywhere close to making a decision [about free agency],” Friedman said Monday on Sportsnet 590.

Marner has scored 16 goals with 55 assists through 54 games this season. The Toronto Maple Leafs winger is reaching the end of a six-year, $65.41 million contract that includes a full no-move clause, giving Marner control to veto any possible deal.

Marner’s status with Toronto was further examined after the Colorado Avalanche traded forward Mikko Rantanen to Carolina after it was reported that Rantanen was seeking upwards of $14 Million per year as an unrestricted free agent. Hockey insider Frank Seravalli reported that Colorado first inquired about Marner before moving on to receiving young star forward Martin Necas from the Hurricanes.

Friedman had also stated on January 30 that Marner did not want to be moved midseason and that contract talks had not gained any traction either. At this point, the Leafs will have to wait and see if they can retain Marner this offseason or risk losing the valuable winger for nothing in free agency unless Marner decides to accept a trade. This is a situation to watch as the trade deadline approaches.

If Colorado didn't want to pay Rantanens demands they won't pay Marners.

 

[Confucius]

I hope he gets to UFA so reality will sink in.

 

[Antropovsky]

I hope he gets to UFA so reality will sink in.

I think the Leaf ownership would be nuts not to keep their options open for Mcdavid. If they sign Marner, nobody is going to waive their NMC even if McDavid wants to come to Toronto at the end of next year.

 

[Confucius]

I think the Leaf ownership would be nuts not to keep their options open for Mcdavid. If they sign Marner, nobody is going to waive their NMC even if McDavid wants to come to Toronto at the end of next year.

Teams weren’t beating a path to Rantanen for more than 12 million. I’ve read even the Stars GM hemmed and hawed had to sleep on it and finally decided to pull the trigger at the last moment. I’d feel better signing him to the best offer he gets after July 1st than our team determining his value.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I think the Leaf ownership would be nuts not to keep their options open for Mcdavid. If they sign Marner, nobody is going to waive their NMC even if McDavid wants to come to Toronto at the end of next year.

Now, that makes some sense. If the team really thinks they have a chance to sign McDavid, they have to make sure they have the room.