Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[francis246]

If Marner had had a 69 goal season as well as a 60, earning 3 rockets, a hart a Lindsay, how much would he be asking? My guess is the full 20% max allowable.

Are we in fantasy work right now? Or talking about reality?

 

[Confucius]

Are we in fantasy work right now? Or talking about reality?

Yes I already admitted Mitch accomplishing what Mathews has is fantasy. You’re a little late.

 

[Gabriel426]

Thank you! I made this exact comment two days ago. You have to factor in expectations vs production. If Matthews is the best of the three he’s been the biggest let down based on the expectations of him being the franchise center man and cornerstone.

Not just that it is also his injury or whatever that is making him, one great year follow by okay/good year routine.
A leader and top player is someone you can count on and if you are unavailable, how can a team count on that.

 

[ACC1224]

Yes I already admitted Mitch accomplishing what Mathews has is fantasy. You’re a little late.

You're admitting much more than that.

 

[Confucius]

You're admitting much more than that.

When all else fails attack the poster seems to be your style.

 

[ACC1224]

When all else fails attack the poster seems to be your style.

Not at all. Stick to reality and no one will have an issue.
Keep making up nonsense and people will call you out, it's the same for anyone.

 

[authentic]

It is not about not caring bc I don’t think that the case at all.
Rather it’s how far are they going to go to win. Over the past playoffs, it always seemed like they(core 5) are waiting for someone else to do something then they will follow instead of taking the lead themselves. It is not about starting a fight or big hits….it’s about not having a shift that is just meh.

How many past playoffs games can we honestly recall at this moment that one of the Core 5 dominated? Not many, and that’s the problem, they played 6 playoffs together.

I would say rather there are a number of games they have dominated individually, but the chances of all 4 of them stepping up in the same game seems to be lacking.. however stars of every team have many shifts that are just meh, the Leafs have largely lacked depth scoring and even decent goaltending for the most part, that’s been more of the difference than our core 4. But I’m not excusing their play, they do have to be better and more consistent from game to game, 100%. At the end of the day do I think these guys have what it takes to go the distance, and then have enough left in the tank to win a Stanley Cup? No, not by a long shot, but that’s simply because they’re not good enough and a little on the fragile side, atleast when it comes to the health of Matthews and the willingness to actually play defense or take a hit in the corners from Nylander. Marner is what he is, he’s get physically overpowered when the going gets rough so it is what it is, that’s part of not being good enough, not lack of heart. Tavares lack of speed becomes more apparent come playoff time, but even still he’s been quite good despite this. We’ll need a miracle to win the Cup, and that starts with solid goaltending and a relatively healthy team.

 

[thewave]

Yes I already admitted Mitch accomplishing what Mathews has is fantasy. You’re a little late.

Matthews is a 3x Rocket winning L1 C.

There is no comparison to be made with him. Internal or otherwise. Marner needs to look elsewhere and AM having an injury and down year does not move the needle either.

The debate on Marner needs to end at this point. It's a stalemate. Marner is a 100pt playmaking winger who is perceived by many to not be an effective playoff performer. He has successfully put up another 100pt or so season and has the opportunity to have a big playoffs.

If he does not. The Leafs and him need to decide to continue working together.

 

[francis246]

Well, yes, that’s what I said

I just don’t see how anyone could watch these games and say these players don’t care. If they didn’t care they would be swept in most of those series, because quite frankly we’ve seen them play when they don’t care and they are bad, bad, bad… like outplaying Tampa the first time even when we lost, beating them the 2nd time, outhitting and outshooting all these teams, Matthews blocking more shots than any forward etc., those don’t happen when a team isn’t going balls to the wall facing another elite team who’s also going balls to the wall

So I listened to Mark Giordano on Overdrive I think two weeks ago. And I finally understand why the vets love Marner. Giordano straight up said that he believes the guys in the room have the desire to win. But he went through and said that Marner displays it more and wears his emotions more on his sleeve, where as Auston and Willy are more reserved. Then he goes on to say that do you want the kid who just floats around and doesn’t get pissed off when they are losing or the kid who cries and is mad that they are losing. Then he says, “the kid who cries when they are losing cares more, right”. So I think that kind of explains why the vets always have Mitch’s back, it’s clear he really does care about winning and is vocal about it in the room. Not that Auston and Willie don’t care, but they don’t seem to display it as much. Which at times is also a problem in itself. You need a little bit of emotion. Maybe Marner shows too much but he at least shows it. Is how I understood it. I thought that was an interesting perspective by someone in the room.

Giordano on the Maple Leafs looking to make a statement, the star perspective and the defensive approach - OverDrive

Longtime NHL Defenseman Mark Giordano joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Maple Leafs' team mentality, the star's imperative skill for the roster, Morgan Rielly's role on the blue line, Chris Tanev setting plays, the power play on the team, the approach to the playoffs...

omny.fm

Convo around that, starts at 5:00 min mark.

 

[ACC1224]

So I listened to Mark Giordano on Overdrive I think two weeks ago. And I finally understand why the vets love Marner. Giordano straight up said that he believes the guys in the room have the desire to win. But he went through and said that Marner displays it more and wears his emotions more on his sleeve, where as Auston and Willy are more reserved. Then he goes on to say that do you want the kid who just floats around and doesn’t get pissed off when they are losing or the kid who cries and is mad that they are losing. Then he says, “the kid who cries when they are losing cares more, right”. So I think that kind of explains why the vets always have Mitch’s back, it’s clear he really does care about winning and is vocal about it in the room. Not that Auston and Willie don’t care, but they don’t seem to display it as much. Which at times is also a problem in itself. You need a little bit of emotion. Maybe Marner shows too much but he at least shows it. Is how I understood it. I thought that was an interesting perspective by someone in the room.

Giordano on the Maple Leafs looking to make a statement, the star perspective and the defensive approach - OverDrive

Longtime NHL Defenseman Mark Giordano joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Maple Leafs' team mentality, the star's imperative skill for the roster, Morgan Rielly's role on the blue line, Chris Tanev setting plays, the power play on the team, the approach to the playoffs...

omny.fm

Convo around that, starts at 5:00 min mark.

Yeah, players get it.
The issue with Marner in this instance is that 'caring too much' at times has caused him to get in his own way.
The pressure of 4 Nations where he came in clutch perhaps is an indication that he's getting past it.

 

[Gabriel426]

I would say rather there are a number of games they have dominated individually, but the chances of all 4 of them stepping up in the same game seems to be lacking.. however stars of every team have many shifts that are just meh, the Leafs have largely lacked depth scoring and even decent goaltending for the most part, that’s been more of the difference than our core 4. But I’m not excusing their play, they do have to be better and more consistent from game to game, 100%. At the end of the day do I think these guys have what it takes to go the distance, and then have enough left in the tank to win a Stanley Cup? No, not by a long shot, but that’s simply because they’re not good enough and a little on the fragile side, atleast when it comes to the health of Matthews and the willingness to actually play defense or take a hit in the corners from Nylander. Marner is what he is, he’s get physically overpowered when the going gets rough so it is what it is, that’s part of not being good enough, not lack of heart. Tavares lack of speed becomes more apparent come playoff time, but even still he’s been quite good despite this. We’ll need a miracle to win the Cup, and that starts with solid goaltending and a relatively healthy team.

I really don’t think defence and goaltending was as big a problem as some are making it to be. Since most of the elimination game losses, our guys couldn’t even score more than ONE goal. You can’t expect your goalie to have a shutout in elimination game.
We can point to depth scoring but our core guys were not scoring either.

 

[ToneDog]

MM should be Rantanen’s money, which is 12mil.

13mil means 3rd highest player in the league. And I think even his diehard fans know he should not be the 3rd highest paid player in the league.

Imagine the jokes some on this board would be making if another team paid 3 players who have won one playoff series in 8 years, $38m.

 

[arso40]

So I listened to Mark Giordano on Overdrive I think two weeks ago. And I finally understand why the vets love Marner. Giordano straight up said that he believes the guys in the room have the desire to win. But he went through and said that Marner displays it more and wears his emotions more on his sleeve, where as Auston and Willy are more reserved. Then he goes on to say that do you want the kid who just floats around and doesn’t get pissed off when they are losing or the kid who cries and is mad that they are losing. Then he says, “the kid who cries when they are losing cares more, right”. So I think that kind of explains why the vets always have Mitch’s back, it’s clear he really does care about winning and is vocal about it in the room. Not that Auston and Willie don’t care, but they don’t seem to display it as much. Which at times is also a problem in itself. You need a little bit of emotion. Maybe Marner shows too much but he at least shows it. Is how I understood it. I thought that was an interesting perspective by someone in the room.

Giordano on the Maple Leafs looking to make a statement, the star perspective and the defensive approach - OverDrive

Longtime NHL Defenseman Mark Giordano joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Maple Leafs' team mentality, the star's imperative skill for the roster, Morgan Rielly's role on the blue line, Chris Tanev setting plays, the power play on the team, the approach to the playoffs...

omny.fm

Convo around that, starts at 5:00 min mark.

Marner is the leafs little brother happy keeps the mood light in the room Hes easy to love as a teammate but when it comes to winning and losing nobody cares about any of that I respect the hell out of gio but he’s not a winner attitudes like chuccy on Florida or even point on lightning even pasta on Boston matter I don’t care about the kid who cries when it goes bad I personally rather the guy who’s gonna punch you in the face or spear you cause he’s losing you cant show me proof that marner cares more than nylander or Matthews period gios opinion is just that an opinion we all have eyes we don’t know what goes on in the loccer room but as far as on ice im not buying what your selling at all

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

So I listened to Mark Giordano on Overdrive I think two weeks ago. And I finally understand why the vets love Marner. Giordano straight up said that he believes the guys in the room have the desire to win. But he went through and said that Marner displays it more and wears his emotions more on his sleeve, where as Auston and Willy are more reserved. Then he goes on to say that do you want the kid who just floats around and doesn’t get pissed off when they are losing or the kid who cries and is mad that they are losing. Then he says, “the kid who cries when they are losing cares more, right”. So I think that kind of explains why the vets always have Mitch’s back, it’s clear he really does care about winning and is vocal about it in the room. Not that Auston and Willie don’t care, but they don’t seem to display it as much. Which at times is also a problem in itself. You need a little bit of emotion. Maybe Marner shows too much but he at least shows it. Is how I understood it. I thought that was an interesting perspective by someone in the room.

Giordano on the Maple Leafs looking to make a statement, the star perspective and the defensive approach - OverDrive

Longtime NHL Defenseman Mark Giordano joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Maple Leafs' team mentality, the star's imperative skill for the roster, Morgan Rielly's role on the blue line, Chris Tanev setting plays, the power play on the team, the approach to the playoffs...

omny.fm

Convo around that, starts at 5:00 min mark.

How much crying does Marner do ffs?

If you want to show emotion make sure it's the right one. Get mad and throw a bench across the dressing room. That's sending a message.

Crying sends a message too I guess just so happens it's the wrong one.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner is the leafs little brother happy keeps the mood light in the room Hes easy to love as a teammate but when it comes to winning and losing nobody cares about any of that I respect the hell out of gio but he’s not a winner attitudes like chuccy on Florida or even point on lightning even pasta on Boston matter I don’t care about the kid who cries when it goes bad I personally rather the guy who’s gonna punch you in the face or spear you cause he’s losing you cant show me proof that marner cares more than nylander or Matthews period gios opinion is just that an opinion we all have eyes we don’t know what goes on in the loccer room but as far as on ice im not buying what your selling at all

Teammates may like the guy but I doubt they want to see him get overpaid, because that means less for the rest. Watching your $11m super elite teammate melt like the snow every April must make him more loveable to his teammates.

 

[authentic]

I really don’t think defence and goaltending was as big a problem as some are making it to be. Since most of the elimination game losses, our guys couldn’t even score more than ONE goal. You can’t expect your goalie to have a shutout in elimination game.
We can point to depth scoring but our core guys were not scoring either.

Lack of depth scoring, I mentioned that already. That’s one of the main things that gets you over the hump in those tight do or die games. Also, the other team having a better goalie helps when they’re forced to activate their god mode, which just makes it that much harder for us to score compared to our opponent.

 

[authentic]

I agree though, our stars have to be better in these games! Matthews staying healthy and gaining his shot back would be a huge help as well, but not sure that can be counted on…

 

[ToneDog]

How much crying does Marner do ffs?

If you want to show emotion make sure it's the right one. Get mad and throw a bench across the dressing room. That's sending a message.

Crying sends a message too I guess just so happens it's the wrong one.

Pucks over the glass, crying in the penalty box, throwing hissy fits on the bench, critical turnovers must get him lots of respect from his teammates who make 10% what he makes.

 

[arso40]

Lack of depth scoring, I mentioned that already. That’s one of the main things that gets you over the hump in those tight do or die games. Also, the other team having a better goalie helps when they’re forced to activate their god mode, which just makes it that much harder for us to score compared to our opponent.

Agreed where’s the money for it ? When the people getting the bulk of the money to produce aren’t producing to their salary that’s the problem cant cry about depth when holmberg has to play cause you couldnt afford to keep hyman as a direct result of getting the core 4 signed

 

[Blanka]

So I listened to Mark Giordano on Overdrive I think two weeks ago. And I finally understand why the vets love Marner. Giordano straight up said that he believes the guys in the room have the desire to win. But he went through and said that Marner displays it more and wears his emotions more on his sleeve, where as Auston and Willy are more reserved. Then he goes on to say that do you want the kid who just floats around and doesn’t get pissed off when they are losing or the kid who cries and is mad that they are losing. Then he says, “the kid who cries when they are losing cares more, right”. So I think that kind of explains why the vets always have Mitch’s back, it’s clear he really does care about winning and is vocal about it in the room. Not that Auston and Willie don’t care, but they don’t seem to display it as much. Which at times is also a problem in itself. You need a little bit of emotion. Maybe Marner shows too much but he at least shows it. Is how I understood it. I thought that was an interesting perspective by someone in the room.

Giordano on the Maple Leafs looking to make a statement, the star perspective and the defensive approach - OverDrive

Longtime NHL Defenseman Mark Giordano joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Maple Leafs' team mentality, the star's imperative skill for the roster, Morgan Rielly's role on the blue line, Chris Tanev setting plays, the power play on the team, the approach to the playoffs...

omny.fm

Convo around that, starts at 5:00 min mark.

While I appreciate Giordano's commentary on the topic, if the player is putting up numbers when it counts and is a good "team player", they can be as monotone and stoic as they want. Vice versa too. I'm at the point where I just want results.

David Clarkson showed a tonne of emotion and he was utterly and completely useless when he was here.

 

[authentic]

Agreed where’s the money for it ? When the people getting the bulk of the money to produce aren’t producing to their salary that’s the problem cant cry about depth when holmberg has to play cause you couldnt afford to keep hyman as a direct result of getting the core 4 signed

Do you see the way our GM has spent his money ? 4 million for Kampf and Reaves? Who are we kidding here

 

[ToneDog]

I agree though, our stars have to be better in these games! Matthews staying healthy and gaining his shot back would be a huge help as well, but not sure that can be counted on…

Matthews has not scored a goal in 6 game 7 loses. Until he proves otherwise, he is a choker like Marner and to a lesser extent Nylander and Tavares.

 

[arso40]

Do you see the way our GM has spent his money ? 4 million for Kampf and Reaves? Who are we kidding here

I would ignore his first year he couldn’t really distrupt the roster he needed a year to see what pieces to move around from year 2 on he should be under the microscope including the stupid laughton trade

 

[Dekes For Days]

I was looking at cap hit % for position predicated upon all wingers/centres, followed by the top 100 wingers/centres. This was to do with you stating "Players get paid based on impact", which I asked about by having you post data on what "impact" represents. You didn't really provide anything. Evidence of the twins or Toews/Kane signing similar contracts isn't a wide dataset, and you know that.

"The average starting cap hit percentage for the the 10 biggest center contracts was 3% higher than the average percentage for the top 10 winger contracts, but the average P/GP through the 3 years prior to signing for the centers was a pretty similar 2.4% higher". So in other words, Centres on average are paid more than wingers. Why is this so hard for you to admit? In my world, 100 basis points is big, nevermind 300 and 240.

You've referred to Marner as a top 3 winger in the league before, which is why I chose the top 3 centres to compare. That's evident, no?

What you looked at had no relevance to my statement though. I have acknowledged the possibility that centers have gotten a marginally bigger allocation of cap, on average. What I have taken issue with is attempts to extrapolate from that to the why; suggesting some inherent positional boost, based on nothing, and then applying that to Marner.

If players with last names that start with M average bigger cap hits than other letters (the top 3 paid are all Ms!), should we pay Marner more than comparable non-M players? If we split by wings instead and right wings averaged more than left wings, does that mean we should pay Marner more than any comparable left wing? No, because whatever difference you're seeing is a result of differences within the groupings, not a result of the grouping. I gave an example of this phenomenon and used production as a proxy for impact, because while it does not represent all impact, it represents the majority, and is the primary driving factor behind forward contracts. The difference between 2.4% and 3% is not a significant discrepancy here, much less one that could be attributed to valuation methodology differences. And while the examples aren't a big enough data set to be drawing conclusions on their own, it further supports that they're not treated differently. These situations are about as close as you can get to isolating positional impact, and they got the same. You asked for examples and I gave them to you.

Comparing the top 3 centers and wingers isn't really relevant here. The gap between the contracts of the referenced players and the 13.5% you want Marner to max out at is quite large.

ChatGPT produced quite a few errors when? When you were using it? The functions I use take a 64 core server 30 minutes to compute, and it uses over 30 sources to cross-check and confirm data. There may have been some errors, but no where near enough to completely invalidate its findings. Guess we can agree to disagree over that.

I get that the AI you're using is more advanced, but that doesn't make it perfect. The deep research site itself acknowledges that it has limitations and errors. And even the best AIs are limited by their sources and user. When the positional data in official sources is wrong, it's going to draw incorrect data, and the answer being accurate and relevant is reliant on the user's prompt.

At the end of the day Dekes, I believe Marner is worth a max of 13.5-13.6% of the cap, and maybe you think he is worth more based off of your comments. I hope he signs with the Leafs, he's a hell of a player. I want to put this debate to bed, so I'm going to just say good talk (seriously) and as usual, thanks for indulging.

I hope we keep Marner too, and I hope we get him at 13.5%. I just don't see how it's justified or realistic to expect him to get that little. I don't think we'll agree, but good talk.

 

[arso40]

What you looked at had no relevance to my statement though. I have acknowledged the possibility that centers have gotten a marginally bigger allocation of cap, on average. What I have taken issue with is attempts to extrapolate from that to the why; suggesting some inherent positional boost, based on nothing, and then applying that to Marner.

If players with last names that start with M average bigger cap hits than other letters (the top 3 paid are all Ms!), should we pay Marner more than comparable non-M players? If we split by wings instead and right wings averaged more than left wings, does that mean we should pay Marner more than any comparable left wing? No, because whatever difference you're seeing is a result of differences within the groupings, not a result of the grouping. I gave an example of this phenomenon and used production as a proxy for impact, because while it does not represent all impact, it represents the majority, and is the primary driving factor behind forward contracts. The difference between 2.4% and 3% is not a significant discrepancy here, much less one that could be attributed to valuation methodology differences. And while the examples aren't a big enough data set to be drawing conclusions on their own, it further supports that they're not treated differently. These situations are about as close as you can get to isolating positional impact, and they got the same. You asked for examples and I gave them to you.

Comparing the top 3 centers and wingers isn't really relevant here. The gap between the contracts of the referenced players and the 13.5% you want Marner to max out at is quite large.

I get that the AI you're using is more advanced, but that doesn't make it perfect. The deep research site itself acknowledges that it has limitations and errors. And even the best AIs are limited by their sources and user. When the positional data in official sources is wrong, it's going to draw incorrect data, and the answer being accurate and relevant is reliant on the user's prompt.

I hope we keep Marner too, and I hope we get him at 13.5%. I just don't see how it's justified or realistic to expect him to get that little. I don't think we'll agree, but good talk.

Dekes we’re still on this? Come on man you guys just agree to disagree nobody’s budging and by nobody I mean you