Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[thusk]

I'm saying without a shadow of a doubt he wants more than 12 million, have you heard otherwise? Mitch and the other players have made it clear that money is their priority.

No it's really not, McDavid is a "God" come playoff time, he deserves to get paid. Mitch is a glorified 2nd liner come playoff time, in no world does he deserve even close to the highest pay in the NHL.

1-Since the beggining of off-season, he's constantly saying he don't want to talk about negociation and whatever

2-Do you really know how negociation working?!?!?! not sure. If you try to negociate with Tre for 13-14M to hope at the end a 12 M comtrct( who's maybe the target). Do you think goes on media and tell he want 12 M or to anyone else who really help his negociation in anything?!?!?! That would just be extremely dump.

if the 2nd line is playoff team pts leader, what do that mean for the entire team?

 

[MK78]

I think if Marner does not elevate his game in the playoffs yet again, he should just sign elsewhere. It just won't work, since it hasn't worked. If Marner walks, and Tavares isn't resigned, it's a perfect time to re-tool with 22M of cap space.

 

[ToneDog]

I'm saying without a shadow of a doubt he wants more than 12 million, have you heard otherwise? Mitch and the other players have made it clear that money is their priority.

No it's really not, McDavid is a "God" come playoff time, he deserves to get paid. Mitch is a glorified 2nd liner come playoff time, in no world does he deserve even close to the highest pay in the NHL.

Rumour was that the Leafs ceiling is $13m. Clearly he wants closer to $14m. Kyper said $13.8m

They should tell him to f*** off and try to sign Bennett and Ehlers. At least neither will hang out at the blueline and lob muffins at the net. 100% they will be harder to play against in the playoffs. Auston and Willie might even play a foot taller.

 

[Roo]

Never been to Muskoka. All I know about Lake Rousseau is that's where the uber rich hang out. Cannot envision that being a place Marner gets harassed.

Gotcha. Unless you have a cottage, there isn’t really all that much around Rosseau. If you want to head to a nice waterfront restaurant in public, Turtle Jacks in Port Carling is one the few options available, which is why it doesn’t surprise me.

Lol do you think rich people aren’t idiots? They can be some of the worst people especially when alcohol is involved.

So true. Stupidity + confidence + ego can be quite epic.

 

[NVious]

1-Since the beggining of off-season, he's constantly saying he don't want to talk about negociation and whatever

2-Do you really know how negociation working?!?!?! not sure. If you try to negociate with Tre for 13-14M to hope at the end a 12 M comtrct( who's maybe the target). Do you think goes on media and tell he want 12 M or to anyone else who really help his negociation in anything?!?!?! That would just be extremely dump.

View attachment 991096

if the 2nd line is playoff team pts leader, what do that mean for the entire team?

Yeah cuz he's hardballing it, the Leafs know his stance and it wouldn't surprise me if he wants 13-14 mill, forget 12.

It means they are all overpaid soft losers, but the thing is that soft skill wingers are the most replacable.

Mitch has scored FOUR goals in his last 37 playoff games, good for a 9 goal pace over 82 game season. This is supposed to be his prime and he's playing with JT/Auston/Willie? And this guy wants to be top 5 in the NHL in salary? R O F L.

I guess his defense is valid "the other guys suck too" which is true, but they've already been paid, we don't have to make even more mistakes.

 

[Legion34]

Isn't it surreal to have a GM who actually knows how to hardball?

No. He should have done it in the summer. Ultimately Mitch held the cards. But listen. We need a commitment. By camp. I’m not walking you to UFA

 

[DackellDuck]

The difference between what Rantanen signed in Dallas to the equivalent of 12.475 in Toronto , it's money but not a big deal when you take into account they would make much much more in endorsements here.

It's a much bigger difference.

In Dallas, he'll pay ~$4.4M in tax per year on the $12M salary.
In Toronto, he'd pay ~$6.4M.

He'd need over $14.5M, per year, in Toronto to close the gap in take home pay.

 

[francis246]

Isn't it surreal to have a GM who actually knows how to hardball?

How did he play hardball exactly? I’m failing to see that.

 

[ToneDog]

It's a much bigger difference.

In Dallas, he'll pay ~$4.4M in tax per year on the $12M salary.
In Toronto, he'd pay ~$6.4M.

He'd need over $14.5M, per year, in Toronto to close the gap in take home pay.

Now factor in the 70 cent dollar, huge signing bonuses and endorsements. f*** him if he wants money more than Cups and wants nothing to do with accountability.

 

[MarMarSab3]

It's a much bigger difference.

In Dallas, he'll pay ~$4.4M in tax per year on the $12M salary.
In Toronto, he'd pay ~$6.4M.

He'd need over $14.5M, per year, in Toronto to close the gap in take home pay.

Actually you're right, mislculated. Granted he likely makes that 2 million and then some in endorsements

 

[Dekes For Days]

Also: Pastrnak - who's gotten the richest contract out of this era's group of wingers at 13.5% (save for Marner cause he hasn't signed yet) What is the one thing that separates Pastrnak from the other guys?

Even though Rantanen had a per-game production lead over Pastrnak and Nylander in the years leading up to signing, Pastrnak and Nylander got in the 13-14% range. Interestingly, both Nylander and Pastrnak did have something in common over Ratanen... better per-60 stats.

 

[Legion34]

I have explained the evidence to you. I don't know what you're expecting. There aren't really public studies on this kind of stuff to direct you to, and I did my research on this 5 years and 2 computers ago, so I don't have any fancy charts and graphs on hand for you. I looked at two different samples of 100+ higher end post-ELC and then UFA contracts throughout cap era history, and evaluated how different stats and factors correlated with the contract data. From what I remember, recent point and primary point per game production correlated highly and similarly. I believe about 50-60% more than goals and primary assists alone, which where also similar, and then another significant drop for secondary assists alone.

I actually put in the work to come to an accurate position. GMs would also be aware of the studies that show that goals and primary assists represent similar offensive impact, and I have no reason to default into believing that GMs would leave such a big market inefficiency. You're the one that doesn't have any actual evidence of their claim. But you're free to believe whatever you want. We are not getting anywhere so let's agree to disagree.

1.) you never “explained evidence” you just said you know this is what gms do because you said so. now after about 20 replies after I asked you about data magically have a 100 person study on 2 computers ago.

2.) what website did you use to determine primary assists from 2005? Where are they posted.

3.) if you look at the top contracts from those eras, you will see a heck of a lot of goal scorers. Nash, Kovy, vanek kessel. etc at the top of the list. Not a lot of assists.

4.) you just said there weren’t studies so you had to make your own. But now GMs are aware of you study. That you did in 2019? Did they have a Time Machine?

GMs are aware of studies of contracts they signed years ago?

5.) GMs always have “perceived” market inefficiencies (drafting for size etc). You deciding that you determined that primary points are the key factor and just assuming GMs act like you would is bonkers

 

[arso40]

I'm saying he *did* make a mistake or we wouldn't be having this discussion right now.

Damned if you do damned if you dont hindsight of course is always 20/20

 

[Leaf Fans]

What this tells us is the Leafs and management is not necessarily tied 100% to Marner with any guarantee he is returning.

If you ask a player to waive your NMC it means they liked the return they were getting.

Sure, they also could have been professional and told Marner that they have a deal and thought he should be kept in the loop.

 

[francis246]

Well… Ekblad just got suspended for PED use.. maybe that drives his price down. Not looking good for the replace Marner options.

 

[Kiwi]

No. He should have done it in the summer. Ultimately Mitch held the cards. But listen. We need a commitment. By camp. I’m not walking you to UFA

Marner has a full NTC, the only person that makes that decision is him because we can't make that happen without his agreement

Honestly I don't want to walk him to UFA either but I'm also unwilling to give him the money he wants

Give him a contract, if he wants to continue being difficult pull the deal and plan how you're going to use that cap space

 

[Leaf Fans]

Serious question - do we actually have evidence that it was Carolina who reported or leaked the information?

No, it may have come from the Leafs.

 

[cyris]

I do love how among the many posters who didn’t want the leafs to negotiate with Marner till after the playoffs there a few of them who are now mad Marner won’t negotiate till after the season

 

[Legion34]

I do love how among the many posters who didn’t want the leafs to negotiate with Marner till after the playoffs there a few of them who are now mad Marner won’t negotiate till after the season

I was never on that train. I wanted them to force a trade I. The offseason because he looked like he wanted out.

Now to find out he is refusing to even discuss AND blocking a trade is insane.

He is turning himself into JT

 

[Menzinger]

The difference between what Rantanen signed in Dallas to the equivalent of 12.475 in Toronto , it's money but not a big deal when you take into account they would make much much more in endorsements here.

It's also worth noting that Rantanen's deal involves considerably less signing bonuses than what a Mitch deal would likely get in Toronto.

Rantanen's highest bonus years are the first two where he only in getting 5.6 mil per,.and then it declines and the base salary increases during the final years

So this idea that the Leafs would have to grossly overpay Marner to compensate for the lower state taxes in Texas doesn't hold up to much scrutiny. A few hundred extra thousand more per year essentially wiped the difference clean anyways

 

[Gabriel426]

Well… Ekblad just got suspended for PED use.. maybe that drives his price down. Not looking good for the replace Marner options.

Was he ever consider MM’s replacement?

 

[Legion34]

Marner has a full NTC, the only person that makes that decision is him because we can't make that happen without his agreement

Honestly I don't want to walk him to UFA either but I'm also unwilling to give him the money he wants

Give him a contract, if he wants to continue being difficult pull the deal and plan how you're going to use that cap space

They could have made it uncomfortable.
Look at now. If they did this a month ago he goes.

 

[cyris]

I was never on that train. I wanted them to force a trade I. The offseason because he looked like he wanted out.

Now to find out he is refusing to even discuss AND blocking a trade is insane.

He is turning himself into JT

There was no realistic scenario where they could force a trade.
He wanted to be here this season and has a full NMC.
Now the guy you didn’t want to sign won’t sign at least till after the playoffs.

They could have made it uncomfortable.
Look at now. If they did this a month ago he goes.

They really couldn’t. The team wants to win. He has been the best offensive and defensive forward this season with Matthews hurt.
You couldn’t reduce his minutes without hurting the team in the process

 

[thewave]

They could have made it uncomfortable.
Look at now. If they did this a month ago he goes.

Leafs management shit the bed again. They are a comedy of errors. Everyone knows the team with the biggest budget, most local home grown superstars can't win for almost 60 years, it's because the ownership groups are or have been incompetent. It's not because harsh fans. It's gross incompetence.

No professional sports team has been managed worse..6 decades of failure.

 

[Kiwi]

They could have made it uncomfortable.
Look at now. If they did this a month ago he goes.

I doubt it

The fan base has been in revolt about him before and he rode it out, eventually he becomes lovable old hometown boy Mitch again

He has all the power right now