And yet the Leafs only won ONE series in the last three playoffs.
So what does that say about our top guys?
It means they are not good enough collectively.
Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again
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So what does that say about our top guys?
It means they are not good enough collectively.
keonsbitterness
Registered User
An expiring contract runs until June 30 even though the salary is paid in full as of game 82. A player skipping the playoffs would almost certainly be subject to breach of contract penalties. Doubt we ever find out the nature of those penalties.
ULF_55
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Commander Clueless
Apathy of the Leaf
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I think the best argument for keeping Marner is that management already made this decision by not trading him when they had the chance.
Letting a player like Marner walk and replacing him with... What, exactly?....is awful and he knows it.
leafs in five
Registered User
leafs in five
Registered User
Considering it's a team sport, look at everything no?
Thats 4 series total. Nylander and Matthews were both injured in last years series and with both still having really stoing points overall, it's fair to say Tavares has been the weakest of the 4. Put him aside.
Have the big 3 been more of an issue than the play of starting goaltending? Campbell and Samsonov (who was pulled in 2 of the 4 series) are arguably the worst starting goalies of any contender over that stretch.
...and thats despite both team D numbers for both shots against and xGA being above average.
How about bottom 6 play? Anyone stand out down there? Part of the reason the REL numbers go up is because the stars on the team are playing better in their roles than the bottom 6. I guess to be expected with top 6 cap but no stepped up in any big way either.
So with poor goaltending, poor bottom 6 and Tavares being glaringly bigger issues than the rest of the big 4 and then you throw in the fact last years injury riddled team somehow even making it to 7 games, why the fascination with Marner? It's like a fever dream in these threads. If you really want to make a massive breakdown of good a bad over the last 3 years, Marner is certainly on good list and yet has probably received over half the critical attacks.
Dubas big problem was never that he signed anyone to any deals IMO.
It was that he failed to provide any real support in the goaltending/bottom six department. Too many soft no shows mixed with goalies who don't have a memorable save any can recall.
You can talk about cap here too I guess but that opens cans of worms involving covid and it's not like almost any support player lived up to their smaller cap hits anyways.
With every lost series for years being so close (except 1) let's see what so far regular season gamers like McMann, Lorentz and especially Stolarz can do for us this year. As far as I'm concerned, Marner playing the exact same gives us a real chance to win and I can't say that about a lot of players on the team.
Hell, McDavid and Drai were 2 of the top 5 players in the world and both good playoff guys and couldn't even make it to the show/make any progress as a team....cause their team was holding them back.
Let's see if the Leafs finally have an actual playoff team this year. Feel like goaltending is the best in years which is a start.....
DarkKnight
Professional Amateur
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That's a ridiculous amount of ice time for a forward, has to be a season high.
BraveCanadian
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Guy is a stud but they should tone it down before he wears out
Gary Nylund
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That's a good argument for predicting that the Leafs would like to sign Marner, it's not a good argument for saying that it's a smart thing to do.
Commander Clueless
Apathy of the Leaf
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Fair enough, though I think there's an argument that reversing course on that decision now and losing him for nothing might be unsmart.
Mess
Global Moderator
Giving credit where credit is due.
Mitch Marner double dips to help Leafs win.
Those are not words one hears or sees very often, so I'm documenting it in his personnel file.
Now that would be nice if Leaf fans could say that more often come playoff time, when it really matters most.
Mitch Marner double dips to help Leafs win.
Those are not words one hears or sees very often, so I'm documenting it in his personnel file.
Now that would be nice if Leaf fans could say that more often come playoff time, when it really matters most.
Mitch Marner's last 4 overtimes:
This just suggests that not only have you not watched the goals, you don't know how any of these teams actually play. You're just making random guesses to maintain your narrative. For the record, Boston was the most rush-heavy team by far, and we were all around the net, and had the second closest average shot distance. As for this idea that Bobrovsky is somehow uniquely strong against our style of play, that doesn't pass the sniff test either. Bobrovsky has an 0.889 SV% against the Leafs in the Matthews era, and was 0.841 against us in 2022-2023. I don't know why it's so hard for you to accept that sometimes, goalies just play well.
Except that's not what happens. Rask had a worse SV% against us in 2018 than against Tampa, and a worse SV% against us in 2019 than against Carolina and Columbus. Korpisalo set the all-time playoff save record in 2020 against Tampa, not us. Price had a worse SV% against us in 2021 than against Winnipeg and Vegas. Vasilevsky had a worse SV% against us in 2022 than against Florida and NYR and Colorado, and had the 2nd worst SV% of his playoff career against us in 2023. Bobrovsky had a worse SV% against us in 2023 than against Carolina.
In fact, if you took the weighted average of the career playoff SV%s of the goalies we faced, it would be almost identical at 0.921. These goalies are good all on their own, and did what they did to us to a lot of teams, both in the years they faced us, and through their careers.
I've acknowledged everything you said, and explained the flaws in your argument. You know, a couple months ago, we had a respectful back and forth, and you initiated this interaction by suggesting you had an "honest question". It's disappointing to see you unwilling to accept the honest, objective answer, and attack me instead.
But there's no real legitimate argument that it's about the individual. It is a team wide shift, where the star players actually contribute a higher proportion than usual. Your best argument would be against the system, but not only is there very little to support that argument, even if it was true, it wouldn't justify removing our best players.
Gary Nylund
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If his contract demands are unreasonable than there are no good options. Losing him for nothing might not be smart, but it might be smarter than overpaying him.
My stance hasn't changed - wait until after the playoffs because unless Marner can show he can play at high level for more than just the first 4 games (and he hasn't even done that the last 2 series we played), then he's simply not worth a ton to a team that wants to go deep in the playoffs.
I give him full credit for that goal he scored. I don't mean the 3on3 breakaway, I mean that was pretty as well but 3on3 isn't something you see in the playoffs. That first goal though was a beautiful snipe, would LOVE to see him do that in round 2/3/4 of the playoffs!Giving credit where credit is due.
Mitch Marner double dips to help Leafs win.
Those are not words one hears or sees very often, so I'm documenting it in his personnel file.
Now that would be nice if Leaf fans could say that more often come playoff time, when it really matters most.
More accurately, when goalies objectively play well, I say they played well, and when goalies objectively play poorly, I say they played poorly. We've lost to goalies that aren't hot, and these goalies have been hot against a lot more than just us. If you want to ignore what happens and pretend that there is never any variation in goalie performance, that's your choice, but it's certainly not logical.
YES! It works both ways, and I included both ways. You should give context to a series like that, and recognise that 1.83 P/GP is a warped representation of his offensive performance. But it's important to be consistent and look at the whole picture, like me, instead of only adding context when it allows you to diminish Marner and further your narrative.
Can you show me the stats for rush chances generated? I honestly don't have the ability to look up advanced stats like that. I just go based on highlights I watch the following day for most of the games outside of the Leafs (and those highlights we're talking about are years ago). You're right, I don't have the time to watch every goal from every team during the playoffs, it isn't my job. They aren't "random" guesses to support my narrative, it's literally what I remember watching. For the Bruins, Pasta usually generates off the rush, but their lines 2-4 typically generate from a dump and chase from my recollection of those years. Below is the type of crap I have to rely on if I'm looking for statistics;
Fair enough, those goalies (Rask, Price, Korpi) were phenomenal against most teams. My main argument was probably flawed, as I thought you were alluding to us constantly going up against elite goaltending each year, but now see I missed where you stated "4 out of 9 series"; I can support that.
It wasn't my intent to "attack" you, I honestly thought you were trying to re-frame the conversation to suit your statistics vs. the ones I posted. I still believe that for whatever reason our main guys seem to fail against top tier goaltending more than other teams elite players (maybe I'm biased due to watching them so much). Apologies if my response came across as an "attack", I try to be objective and was feeling like you were intentionally misleading.
I never stated it was against an individual either (34+16), and I've stated multiple times I think Marner is a fantastic player. When you are two of the highest paid RFAs in the league, it comes with a certain responsibility to come through in the clutch. I think our core 4 have failed to get it done each playoff, usually for different reasons. There have been times I even thought they deserved the series win (Tampa) but got the short end of the stick on puck luck.
At the end of the day Dekes, I just want to watch the team I've cheered for over 4 decades go deep. There is nothing like watching a team you hold dear go on a run. If the boys get it done this year I'll be the head cheerleader in the squad. I think the Leafs should be in a "wait and see" mode right now though, as they have zero leverage. I rather slightly overpay him if we go to the conference finals vs. slightly overpay him now with the hope we do.
As always Dekes, thanks for the debate. I appreciate the effort you put in, and just like a few months ago I leave a little more informed. That doesn't necessarily mean I agree with you, but I do respect the effort you consistently put in.
(Just watched the 2019 series, I only counted 6 rush chances scored by the Bruins on us vs. 12 cycle)
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Not disagreeing it is a team sports but players like our betas chokers are more accountable than bottom 6 players. Or should they all be the same?
It is never AM not scoring or MM choking or Willie not backchecking….but always depth scoring, injuries, goaltending, coaching and fans pressure.
How many games can we recalled where our top guys dominated like literally being the best players in a game over the past three playoffs?
Then how many games where we recalled they were being dominated by opposing teams?
Some will say, the series were close….congrats to them for making it close in the FIRST round of playoffs where statistically speaking, both advanced stats and traditional stats, indicated that 50% of the teams which made the playoffs end up advancing to the SECOND round of the playoffs.
McD and Drai carried their teams in playoffs, don’t think we can say the same about our top guys. Let’s not kid ourselves that Oilers bottom 6 and goaltending are miles better than the Leafs in the past 3 seasons. And that’s why they made progress the last three playoffs instead of just being first round exits. The reason they made the progress was bc their core performed and dominated.
Let’s see what happens this playoffs but goaltending, depth scoring, coaching and even the plays of our beta chokers all contribute to them being playoffs failures. If depth players, coaches, and goaltending were changed over the years, won’t it make sense to change the core 5(beta chokers) this off season if they fail again?
I agree on the "series was close stuff". You either win or you lose. Who was good and bad during those runs though? Were the likes of Engvall, Mikheyev, Kapanen, Johnssson and Kampf decent depth pieces that held their own and it was the stars that got run over or was it vice versa? Were Campbell and Samsonov the real heros against the likes of Price, Vasy and Bob and it was all the stars fault or did we really have the worst goaltending of any contender? Were we maybe a great team propping up garbage goaltending? Where are Campbell/Samsonov now? Dod we blow the prime of our club on such a massive error?
McDrai certainly carried things for their teams but they still needed a team around them to even qualify for the playoffs and not get swept in the first round. It didnt matter how many Harts they won or how well they played, its a team sport. They made some real good roster moves (The Ekholm pickup was genius) and now they are in the show. The anti-McDavid threads out there before they got a decent team look pretty stupid now too. I'm sure all those guys that wrote thousands of post attacking him apologized right?
As far as when I could remember a player dominating a game, the only player that wasnt a goalie last series (it was the Woll vs. Swayman show much of the time) that dominated a game was Matthews in game 2 before he was injured for game 3. With Nylander/Matthews/McMann(how awesome will he be to have this year in the playoffs)/Woll(our actual MVP for the series) hurt, I cant remember a playoff team with more key injuries than the Leafs had but that doesnt matter either. Just another excuse right? If Florida loses Barkov/Verhaeghe/another top forward and Bob in the first round, Tkachuk is a little beta loser if he doesnt bring them to victory. Am I doing this right? Last year sucked hard with the injuries but I think the team gets some leeway. Samsonov getting pulled in the series, blowing his shot to resign with the team and currently a mediocre backup looks to have been a huge issue. So with massive injuries and the starting goalie flaking out, lets blame Marner?
Speaking of Marner, he was certainly the best player on the ice for the 2 Tampa series. Why do you think Cooper admires him so much as he's frantically trying to linematch Kutcherov away from him as Marner eats Kuch alive. Styles make fights often and if you had a choice between Kucherov and Marner to have/play against in a series, you take Marner every time. Just not a great matchup for Kucherov.
I noticed you said "core 5" at the end there.
Morgan Rielly is a top 10 dman in the playoffs over the last 3 years.....and has a good argument for top 5. He's just been that good. Its really strange no one noticed.
Im not sure about the coaching change but Stolarz looks like money and Woll is a great backup option and depth pieces look better than last season and we need to be healthy.
Lets see what happens come playoff time.
Bottom 6 correlates with guys up top eating the bulk of the cash
Would have preferred another top guy over the trash we got. In any universe should we have signed Kapanen and Johnsson to 3 million + contracts? Imagine we tried to beat the 4.75 Mikheyev got? Bad depth is bad no matter how much you pay it and wherever it goes though.
Meanwhile, Tampa wins by picking up a 1.8 million Coleman and a 925k Goodrow as key pickups and they do more than any bottom 6er the Leafs have had in 8 years.
It's not about the money, it's about the right players. Hell, Tampa was smart(or lucky) enough to get a real goalie too. Replace Kap and AJ money with a goalie and themselves with AHLers and we might have gone on some runs.
Like I said, Kap, Soup and whoever are no longer with the team bc they didn’t perform in playoffs in comparison to their roles on the team. Why can’t the same applies to AM, MM, Willie, JT and Reilly?
Another reason is the fact that Leafs cant afford better supporting players due to the cap being tied to FOUR 10.5mil plus players this season. And if the blame is on MGT-Dubas or Tre not finding value supporting players, maybe the question should also be, why are the core 5 not producing their contract value comes playoffs, maybe they don’t deserve their contract too.
was MM really good against TB as a whole or was he just good in games Leafs won and horrible in games Leafs lost? Same applies to the other guys.
Pretty sure if Cooper can choose MM or Kuch to be on Team Canada, he will choose Kuch. That’s not bc Kuch plays for him but bc Kuch is the better player.
I don’t understand your fascination of MM being better than Kuch as I really don’t think anyone who watches Hockey would even think that. Not saying MM is not a great player but to state people would choose MM over Kuch if they have a choice is quite ridiculous but we are living in a World where Men can use women change room and washroom as long as he thinks he is a woman.
It is the core 5 bc those 5 had been together since 6 yrs ago. The next longest serving Leafs is actually Kampf at 4 yrs and then McCabe and Knies at almost 3 yrs. Which shows the turnover rate of the Leafs over the past 6 yrs. Like I said if the depth, coaching, goalies been changed, should the core 5 be next if the Leafs crash out again in the playoffs?
Goalies looked way better than last year but looks just a bit better during Sammy’s first year, the year where Leafs beat TB.
Goalies looked better but scoring been down this year and the PP is really not that great and we are entering the period where our PP often struggles over the past few seasons.
Depth got more speed and size but they need to generate more scoring(speaking about bottom 6 and defence).
If playoffs starts today, Wings will be the matchup and it should be a short series for the Leafs. Still unsure if they can beat TB or Panthers in the second round. Simply bc guys like Point, Cirelli, Barkov, Bennett will always take away AM and MM. and both Florida teams got more seasoned and better depth than ours.
You just described getting value contract.
Point, Kuch, Hedman, Stamkos made 4-5mil less than our top 4 players in AM, JT, MM and Reilly.
No doubt Kap and AJ were bad contracts but when compare to Point, Kuch, Barkov, Tkachuk, McD, Drai, Makar, our 10.5mil plus boys don’t match up well either.
You can’t just apply the logic if Coleman and Goodrow were great value contracts and completely ignore AM, JT and MM’s contracts are underperforming compare to others similar contracts.
Don’t remember was it this thread or another thread where I said having 50mil on five players on the Leafs might work if those five are McD, Barkov, Makar, Mack and Kuch.
Won’t you agree having those 5 instead of our 5 might had already deliver a Cup or more to the Leafs the past 6 yrs if the rest of the rosters are the same. Or at the very least, would had beaten guys like Price, Swayman, Vas, or those BJs goalies and Bob more then just ONE time in a series over the past 6 yrs.
