Been interesting reading the analysis of the last 3 playoffs and Marner's place within it.
Everything seems to be centered around playoff drop-offs and whatnot and its a fair point of course but I've always been most interested in REL numbers on a team myself. Just how good were you compared to your teammates. You have to play in front of the same goaltending and against the same goalies....and how do you stack up in your role compared with others.
Starting on a huge weakness for the Leafs, the powerplay, there are the 62 forwards with 50+ minutes on the powerplay in the playoffs the last three years and here are the g/60 on the PP for the 4 Leafs rankings and a few other notable names. I included REL numbers in brackets after to show the difference between the team average and the player involved:
2. McDavid: 13.78 (+7.93)
3. Draisaitl: 13.77 (+7.89)
5. MacKinnon: 13.48 (+7.41)
20. Pasta: 10.07 (-0.01)
29. Kucherov: 8.99 (+4.92)
32. Nylander: 8.25 (+4.76)
34. Ovi: 8.12 (-5.36)
44. Matthews: 7.23 (+3.75)
50. Tavares: 6.72 (+3.69)
51. Marner: 6.69 (+3.63)
52. Tkachuk: 6.56 (+1.08)
53. Kaprizov: 6.52 (+1.91)
58. Reinhart: 5.15 (-1.45)
61. Barkov: 4.96 (-1.91)
Not a surprise seeing the Oiler duo so high but it is interesting that the biggest drag on a PP out of any of these guys was Ovi. The Leafs poor PP seems to be driven by the fact the 2nd unit may be the most absymal squad assembled the last 3 years and the worst one overall of any contender has been the Panthers (yea, worse than the Leafs). Despite the fact the Leafs big four have good REL numbers, we really do expect more from them, despite the useless 2nd squad. If you want to hang your hat on some Marner hate, here ya go. With more time and space, Marner wasnt nearly as good. Inexcusable.
Switching to 5v5 is where things get interesting. I'm going to get less specific with the numbers and look at rankings of different things here (and to save me putting all the numbers in lol).
Looking at the 88 forwards with 300+ minutes, here are how the Leafs big 4 forwards ranked for goals for/60:
16. Marner
29. Matthews
57. Nylander
63. Tavares
Marner certainly comes out looking better here and might seem a little shocking to some.
Lets check out fewest goals against/60:
9. Marner
29. Matthews
41. Tavares
64. Nylander
Marner looking even more impressive here shows his dominance as one fo the best defensive wingers in the league.
Hows that look for overall 5v5 goal differential ranking:
6. Marner
21. Matthews
60. Tavares
67. Nylander
I think one of the worst takes I saw floating around here during the 4 nations was people spouting off the 0 IQ take that Marner was somehow a bad 5v5 player, despite him being one of the most dominant playoff 5v5 guys. Don't ever trust a word of anyone who started spewing that "time and space" crap. It's literally been his best attribute.
Shifting to 5v5 REL, things really get enlightening. Gonna throw in first place as its kinda cool plus the actual numbers:
1. McDavid: +23.36%
2. Marner: +22.32%
8. Matthews: +15.84%
48: Tavares: -1.00%
57. Nylander: -3.91%
Just think its awesome that the 2 guys that closed out the 4 nations are actually the 2 most important 5v5 guys in the playoffs as well. Was just fitting. All the Leafs big 4 move up of course. considering how awful some of bottom sixers were in the playoffs. Feel free to blame the cap structure I guess but thats just another thing McDavid and Marner have in common really. I think its more down to picking bad bottom sixers. If any of the big 4 have really been disappointments, I think Marner looks the least guilty here.
If I had to rank the Leafs big 4 forwards by their value in the playoffs, it seems quite easy:
1. Marner
2. Matthews
3. Nylander
4. Tavares
One might hope that Marners numbers were not so frontloaded in series but the big issue is not that he isnt doing it all the time, its more that he's the guy getting them to the big games and then no one finishes them.
Having arguably the worst goaltending out of any contender over this stretch isnt an argument either. Campbell and Samsonov are pretty meh no? Hope Stolarz is the man this run.
Marner is a deal we all hope should get done and Tavares is to me the guy we should wait and see on. I have no doubt he wants to stay and despite the numbers, has made a couple of clutch plays in the playoffs. Lets see if he earns that new contract.
Enough rambling for now. Was just bored yall. I know its an acid trip in here so dont be too hard on me lol.
