Toggle sidebar

Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
francis246 said:
You think Bouchard is resetting the defense market? Getting more than Makar? If I’m Bouchard I’m taking a bridge and lining myself up for UFA.
Click to expand...

Resetting, no not really.
Makar however is underpaid.
He’s in the 4th year of his current deal at 9M and the cap is going way up.

I could see the argument for either bridging or going for the big long term deal tbh. Bridge, bet on self could be a good play, but if he likes it in Edmonton playing locking up ~75 ish million would potentially be really smart given he really doesn’t have a huge track record yet.

Looking at Edmonton’s blueline, he will have a ton of leverage.

I think it’s arguable the bridge could be more advantageous for the team than player.
 
  • Like
Reactions: francis246
Confucius said:
I always was of the opinion this will go to at least July 1st. We won’t get the best deal by signing him early. I can see Dubas offering the moon but nobody else. I expect Mitch to be a Penguin next year. Hope Trump doesn’t draft him. lol!
Click to expand...
Leafs need to explore a sign and trade so they can at least get something for him. He's going to want a Matthews like contract and someone like Dubas might actually give it to him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Confucius
Sypher04 said:
Resetting, no not really.
Makar however is underpaid.
He’s in the 4th year of his current deal at 9M and the cap is going way up.

I could see the argument for either bridging or going for the big long term deal tbh. Bridge, bet on self could be a good play, but if he likes it in Edmonton playing locking up ~75 ish million would potentially be really smart given he really doesn’t have a huge track record yet.

I think it’s arguable the bridge could be more advantageous for the team than player.
Click to expand...

Agreed, I think bridge is beneficial for both team and player. If player wants to bet on himself bridge is the way to go. Edmonton gets more money to work with and can make a splash whether that’s adding more depth pieces or a big add. It’s hard to know but yes Makar is underpaid. His next contract is gonna be a doozy. 14/15 mill.
 
It just blows my mind that people still want to back up the money truck for this guy. ~100 point player regular season, ~70 point player in the playoffs and after the first 4 games of the playoff once everyone settles into playoff style hockey, ~40 point player. Not only that, but with 6 points in 14 games for his last two playoff series he's currently trending down, and his prime years are pretty much gone so the decline is about to begin, if it hasn't already.

Hey that sounds great, let's see if we can talk him into letting us pay him another small fortune to stick around forever. He's one of the greatest Leafs ever, maybe we can build statues for him when he's done playing. Seriously! WTF guys, I just don't get it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sundinisagod, ClarkSittler and ToneDog
Gary Nylund said:
It just blows my mind that people still want to back up the money truck for this guy. ~100 point player regular season, ~70 point player in the playoffs and after the first 4 games of the playoff once everyone settles into playoff style hockey, ~40 point player. Not only that, but with 6 points in 14 games for his last two playoff series he's currently trending down, and his prime years are pretty much gone so the decline is about to begin, if it hasn't already.

Hey that sounds great, let's see if we can talk him into letting us pay him another small fortune to stick around forever. He's one of the greatest Leafs ever, maybe we can build statues for him when he's done playing. Seriously! WTF guys, I just don't get it.
Click to expand...
The Leafs are not letting him walk for nothing. They will gladly overpay when push comes to shove. I'd rather give him the Nylander deal based on the new cap rather than the Matthews deal based on the new cap.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sundinisagod, ClarkSittler and francis246
ToneDog said:
The Leafs are not letting him walk for nothing. They will gladly overpay when push comes to shove. I'd rather give him the Nylander deal based on the new cap rather than the Matthews deal based on the new cap.
Click to expand...

If Dubas called and said Marner for EK. What would you do? Rielly and xxx for Gino
 
I
banks said:
I wouldn't flinch to pay him in the 12-13 range. I think the number will land below Matthews' 13.25 million.

I don't see how his camp can make a case for 14. So somewhere between 13 and 14 is where I'd consider walking away. But there's lots I don't know with the cap increases coming up.
Click to expand...
It's believed the Leafs are willing to go to 13m on a long term deal and that they want to keep him below Matthews 13.25m.

My belief is he would only take 13m on a short term deal ie 2 or 3 years, then take 16m x 8 which would take him to age 37 or 38.

If he gets offers of 14m x 7 on the open market, then his camp will have made a perfect case for 14m. They will leverage those offers into a 13m bridge deal. The increasing cap makes it quite likely he does see some crazy offers IMHO.

I think his demands are too much for our already heavily stacked core 4. We need a different mix and this is the opportunity to do it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: IPS and GoonieFace
Sundinisagod said:
I

It's believed the Leafs are willing to go to 13m on a long term deal and that they want to keep him below Matthews 13.25m.

My belief is he would only take 13m on a short term deal ie 2 or 3 years, then take 16m x 8 which would take him to age 37 or 38.

If he gets offers of 14m x 7 on the open market, then his camp will have made a perfect case for 14m. They will leverage those offers into a 13m bridge deal. The increasing cap makes it quite likely he does see some crazy offers IMHO.

I think his demands are too much for our already heavily stacked core 4. We need a different mix and this is the opportunity to do it.
Click to expand...
Chris Johnston's line was very interesting of "he's not looking to be the highest paid player on the Leafs." Could be perfectly true, just on a 2 year deal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sundinisagod
IPS said:
Chris Johnston's line was very interesting of "he's not looking to be the highest paid player on the Leafs." Could be perfectly true, just on a 2 year deal.
Click to expand...

We only have a 3 year window anyways with Rielly Tanev OEL cap for Stolarz and Woll, Knies etc. It doesn't really matter if they want to blow their brains out with 3 years more of JT and Marner. The only thing left will be Willy the new C of the Leafs

They made a ride or die scenario. The shocker will be 1x7m Tavares, Marner gone and McDavid in
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sundinisagod and IPS
Kurtz said:
There's really no set formula for how many star forwards you need to win a cup. Florida had 3 last year with Tkachuk, Barkov, Reinheart. Vegas won with 2 the year before. Avs had 4 with that monster season from Kadri. Tampa had 3. Teams don't generally dispose of a star player because they feel they have too many. In fact, they seem to go the other way, with Vegas adding Hertl and Tampa adding Guentzel.
Click to expand...

I think we have different definitions of stars.
 
Gary Nylund said:
It just blows my mind that people still want to back up the money truck for this guy. ~100 point player regular season, ~70 point player in the playoffs and after the first 4 games of the playoff once everyone settles into playoff style hockey, ~40 point player. Not only that, but with 6 points in 14 games for his last two playoff series he's currently trending down, and his prime years are pretty much gone so the decline is about to begin, if it hasn't already.

Hey that sounds great, let's see if we can talk him into letting us pay him another small fortune to stick around forever. He's one of the greatest Leafs ever, maybe we can build statues for him when he's done playing. Seriously! WTF guys, I just don't get it.
Click to expand...

It’s not the points, it’s the fact that for him to be worth the money he needs to be touching the puck >50% of his shift, and when the puck is on his stick we definitionally have to play at his tempo which is a slow motion chess match. The problem is in the playoffs the other team is playing chess-boxing and has no incentive to slow down to Marner’s tempo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sundinisagod
Martin Skoula said:
It’s not the points, it’s the fact that for him to be worth the money he needs to be touching the puck >50% of his shift, and when the puck is on his stick we definitionally have to play at his tempo which is a slow motion chess match. The problem is in the playoffs the other team is playing chess-boxing and has no incentive to slow down to Marner’s tempo.
Click to expand...
Points are a part of it. The simplest way to put it is that he's maybe worth his cap hit during the regular season, but he's worth nowhere near close to that in the playoffs.

The best argument in favor of keeping Marner is that Ovechkin eventually broke through. Thing is though, that argument is incredibly stupid.
 
Been interesting reading the analysis of the last 3 playoffs and Marner's place within it.

Everything seems to be centered around playoff drop-offs and whatnot and its a fair point of course but I've always been most interested in REL numbers on a team myself. Just how good were you compared to your teammates. You have to play in front of the same goaltending and against the same goalies....and how do you stack up in your role compared with others.

Starting on a huge weakness for the Leafs, the powerplay, there are the 62 forwards with 50+ minutes on the powerplay in the playoffs the last three years and here are the g/60 on the PP for the 4 Leafs rankings and a few other notable names. I included REL numbers in brackets after to show the difference between the team average and the player involved:

2. McDavid: 13.78 (+7.93)
3. Draisaitl: 13.77 (+7.89)
5. MacKinnon: 13.48 (+7.41)
20. Pasta: 10.07 (-0.01)
29. Kucherov: 8.99 (+4.92)
32. Nylander: 8.25 (+4.76)
34. Ovi: 8.12 (-5.36)
44. Matthews: 7.23 (+3.75)
50. Tavares: 6.72 (+3.69)
51. Marner: 6.69 (+3.63)
52. Tkachuk: 6.56 (+1.08)
53. Kaprizov: 6.52 (+1.91)
58. Reinhart: 5.15 (-1.45)
61. Barkov: 4.96 (-1.91)

Not a surprise seeing the Oiler duo so high but it is interesting that the biggest drag on a PP out of any of these guys was Ovi. The Leafs poor PP seems to be driven by the fact the 2nd unit may be the most absymal squad assembled the last 3 years and the worst one overall of any contender has been the Panthers (yea, worse than the Leafs). Despite the fact the Leafs big four have good REL numbers, we really do expect more from them, despite the useless 2nd squad. If you want to hang your hat on some Marner hate, here ya go. With more time and space, Marner wasnt nearly as good. Inexcusable.


Switching to 5v5 is where things get interesting. I'm going to get less specific with the numbers and look at rankings of different things here (and to save me putting all the numbers in lol).

Looking at the 88 forwards with 300+ minutes, here are how the Leafs big 4 forwards ranked for goals for/60:

16. Marner
29. Matthews
57. Nylander
63. Tavares

Marner certainly comes out looking better here and might seem a little shocking to some.

Lets check out fewest goals against/60:

9. Marner
29. Matthews
41. Tavares
64. Nylander

Marner looking even more impressive here shows his dominance as one fo the best defensive wingers in the league.

Hows that look for overall 5v5 goal differential ranking:

6. Marner
21. Matthews
60. Tavares
67. Nylander

I think one of the worst takes I saw floating around here during the 4 nations was people spouting off the 0 IQ take that Marner was somehow a bad 5v5 player, despite him being one of the most dominant playoff 5v5 guys. Don't ever trust a word of anyone who started spewing that "time and space" crap. It's literally been his best attribute.

Shifting to 5v5 REL, things really get enlightening. Gonna throw in first place as its kinda cool plus the actual numbers:

1. McDavid: +23.36%
2. Marner: +22.32%
8. Matthews: +15.84%
48: Tavares: -1.00%
57. Nylander: -3.91%

Just think its awesome that the 2 guys that closed out the 4 nations are actually the 2 most important 5v5 guys in the playoffs as well. Was just fitting. All the Leafs big 4 move up of course. considering how awful some of bottom sixers were in the playoffs. Feel free to blame the cap structure I guess but thats just another thing McDavid and Marner have in common really. I think its more down to picking bad bottom sixers. If any of the big 4 have really been disappointments, I think Marner looks the least guilty here.

If I had to rank the Leafs big 4 forwards by their value in the playoffs, it seems quite easy:

1. Marner
2. Matthews
3. Nylander
4. Tavares

One might hope that Marners numbers were not so frontloaded in series but the big issue is not that he isnt doing it all the time, its more that he's the guy getting them to the big games and then no one finishes them.

Having arguably the worst goaltending out of any contender over this stretch isnt an argument either. Campbell and Samsonov are pretty meh no? Hope Stolarz is the man this run.

Marner is a deal we all hope should get done and Tavares is to me the guy we should wait and see on. I have no doubt he wants to stay and despite the numbers, has made a couple of clutch plays in the playoffs. Lets see if he earns that new contract.

Enough rambling for now. Was just bored yall. I know its an acid trip in here so dont be too hard on me lol.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Craig Button, TopCheeseShotta, cyris and 1 other person
Gary Nylund said:
Points are a part of it. The simplest way to put it is that he's maybe worth his cap hit during the regular season, but he's worth nowhere near close to that in the playoffs.

The best argument in favor of keeping Marner is that Ovechkin eventually broke through. Thing is though, that argument is incredibly stupid.
Click to expand...

Yeah but why isn’t he getting points late in series? For me the answer is that he has less time to think and his usual passing lanes get clogged up, he doesn’t have the speed or ability to power to the net to make teams pay when they give him space to operate while they’re taking his lanes away. He can sometimes use his hands and brain to force the issue anyway but he doesn’t have a plan B game the same way that Matthews can become a deluxe Holmstrom in front of the net and on the boards if he’s not getting shooting lanes for his usual bread and butter.
 
Dekes For Days said:
Even if we erased the difference in McDavid's production, it wouldn't close the SV% gap. And what exactly is your point? That McDavid is an amazing playoff producer regardless? Yeah, I already noted how insanely good his production is even when factoring in opposing goaltending. There's a reason you're focusing on the 3rd best playoff producer in league history (behind only Gretzky and Lemieux), and not the rest of the list where the level of goaltending faced is much more relevant to how they rank. It's good that you're at least acknowledging the high level of goaltending we've faced, but you're still misallocating blame to the stars, who actually contribute to a higher percentage of the team's goals in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
Without rattling off a hundred reasons - highlighting the most humerous one that a single player can cover 90% of the disparity while also having teammates on the same list - the point is that those stats are beyond useless.

The focus needs to be on the team anyway - their build and strategy. If our stars were all at the top of that list - and it somehow mattered - our extensive immediate failures would still be the same problem.

We have four eight figure forwards - we're designed to decisively overwhelm the opposition with offensive star power (kind of like McD Sid Mack), but we've done the exact opposite. Boo hoo'ing that the goalies have been too good (kind of like Helly) isn't serious.

Tre has built the strongest ship to make them work, and we're going to get another shot no matter what, so let's see that play out.

But otherwise the program needs a wrecking ball. Regardless of how amazing all of our stars might be, because they would be the problem.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom