Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Gary Nylund]

1) cut a hole in a box
2) stop lying
3) stop posting and embarrassing yourself
4) start watching the games
5) top watching the puck if you watch the games
6) start posting again

I'll just copy paste:
The guy who "doesn't care what I think" keeps responding to me like an obsessed teenager.

I've watched almost every game this year. Last month or two I've rarely watched the entire game but that doesn't mean I "don't watch". I've explained this to you about 16 times already, how do you still not get this?

I look forward to another couple of hundred posts from you telling the world you how you aren't interested in my posts.

 

[francis246]

What do you think would be "reasonable" in this context? Reason I ask is I have a hard time seeing a contender wanting him unless it's a big discount.

I think anything from 12 to 12.5

 

[Gabriel426]

I think anything from 12 to 12.5

Honestly, I think MM will sign 13mil with some team that’s believe they are right there.
Looking at teams that are on the playoffs bubble, most of them can afford a 13mil MM to push them to playoffs.
Won’t be surprised if one or two of them offer MM 13/7.

 

[notbias]

You actually sound dumb use the whole career stats where marner got more opportunity hence why 1 got 7 mil and the other got 11 gimme a break ignore the fact ones improving and the other isnt stagnant if not regressing

Use the last 3 years, use 2 years, it is so dumb to use a single season, especially an outlier.

Again, cherry pick whatever you want, but you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[Sundinisagod]

That would have to be the plan, gear up for a McDavid pitch and don’t spend too much in UFA this year and play the kids really.

But I don’t really see Marner chasing the money either. I can see him taking a reasonable contract with a contender on a short term deal to try and win. I think we’ve been pretty conditioned to think Marner is all about the money. But we actually don’t know what his ask is atm, or if money is why he isn’t signing. It doesn’t feel like money is at the forefront. The leafs are already willing to make him one of the highest paid players in the NHL. So I think it’s simply him battling on whether he’d admit truly wants to be here or not.

Don’t kid yourself Francis, it will be all about the money, just like last time. If he leaves Toronto, it will be because Toronto’s offer wasn’t enough. If he signs a reasonable contract, it will be due to lower taxes. If he signs a short term deal, it will be to capitalize on the rising cap (like Matthews) or because he didn’t get the sort of long term deal he was hoping for. If he has another terrible playoffs, contrary to what some people think, it will affect what shrewd gms are willing to pay.

 

[ashs]

Marner has always been my favourite leaf, but I'm starting to think we should've traded him.

 

[francis246]

Don’t kid yourself Francis, it will be all about the money, just like last time. If he leaves Toronto, it will be because Toronto’s offer wasn’t enough. If he signs a reasonable contract, it will be due to lower taxes. If he signs a short term deal, it will be to capitalize on the rising cap (like Matthews) or because he didn’t get the sort of long term deal he was hoping for. If he has another terrible playoffs, contrary to what some people think, it will affect what shrewd gms are willing to pay.

Maybe, I don’t know him personally so you could be absolutely right. I’m just choosing to believe the good in him haha

 

[ashs]

We should do a sign and trade. sign him for what he wants, the max length. Then trade him. If he simply walks he will be hated here forever but by signing max length he gets the money and extra year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think anything from 12 to 12.5

That seems like what his market value is more or less, I don't see a contender giving him that though. JMGO of course, we'll see that happens but I think he'll stay right where he is.

 

[arso40]

Use the last 3 years, use 2 years, it is so dumb to use a single season, especially an outlier.

Again, cherry pick whatever you want, but you have no idea what you're talking about.

Agree dont use one year but to suggest to use the career when the trajectory is blatantly different makes little to no sense 3 years would be in favour of marner and still not by much and last 2 years is when nylander caught him and passed him imo

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner has always been my favourite leaf, but I'm starting to think we should've traded him.

He was my favorite for a few years there but I wanted to shop him after we lost to MTL. Seems like such a long time ago.

 

[arso40]

Use the last 3 years, use 2 years, it is so dumb to use a single season, especially an outlier.

Again, cherry pick whatever you want, but you have no idea what you're talking about.

I didn’t picc 1 year or cherry picc nothing I don’t have the time to do none of that s*** I watch the games though and I can tell you what I saw when I watched them

 

[arso40]

We should do a sign and trade. sign him for what he wants, the max length. Then trade him. If he simply walks he will be hated here forever but by signing max length he gets the money and extra year.

He’s not gonna get to go nowhere he wants to go for max money

 

[francis246]

Marner has always been my favourite leaf, but I'm starting to think we should've traded him.

Same, I think after Florida we should have traded him. I get after Montreal if it felt too soon. But by florida we knew the core wasn’t working. It wasn’t Marner’s fault but I think he would have gotten a better return than Nylander at that point.

Marner is my favourite leaf as well.

 

[arso40]

That seems like what his market value is more or less, I don't see a contender giving him that though. JMGO of course, we'll see that happens but I think he'll stay right where he is.

At this point if his game in particular doesn’t change ( don’t know why it would in year 9 )it’s been nice watching you but we’re giving your money to a number 1 d or two top 6 forwards that play physical with an edge change the fabric of the team Hes a big part of the dna tbh him Matthews and rielly are the main players the ones with the letters as much as jt is a part of the team they were already a team before he got there those 3 always had the keys of the three Matthew’s shown he can play physical he did with domi and bertuzzi ship the next 2 on the first thing smoking

 

[Superstar]

He was my favorite for a few years there but I wanted to shop him after we lost to MTL. Seems like such a long time ago.

He should have been shipped out after the Montreal series...crying like a baby in the penalty box while committing unforced delay of game penalty by flipping puck out of the rink...that wasn't the only delay of game penalty he got for flipping puck out of the rink...could the Leafs have been any worse than they've been in the playoffs since that Montreal series? The guy still hasn't hit 100 pts yet, and remains a playoff flop, but wants between $13 to $14 million...goodness, gracious.

 

[thewave]

He should have been shipped out after the Montreal series...crying like a baby in the penalty box while committing unforced delay of game penalty by flipping puck out of the rink...that wasn't the only delay of game penalty he got for flipping puck out of the rink...could the Leafs have been any worse than they've been in the playoffs since that Montreal series? The guy still hasn't hit 100 pts yet, and remains a playoff flop, but wants between $13 to $14 million...goodness, gracious.

Fire

 

[Antropovsky]

Another big empty net assist today.

Marner is 29th in the league in 5v5 p/60 among players who've played more than 300 mins.

What stands out among all the players 29th or higher is Marners very very bad expected goals stat, it's.0.56 p/60, which is quite easily the lowest.

Definitely an indication of how he plays perimeter hockey.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Another big empty net assist today.

Marner is 29th in the league in 5v5 p/60 among players who've played more than 300 mins.

What stands out among all the players 29th or higher is Marners very very bad expected goals stat, it's.0.56 p/60, which is quite easily the lowest.

Definitely an indication of how he plays perimeter hockey.

View attachment 1002373
View attachment 1002377

Yup, definitely shows Marner is a playmaker more than a a goal scorer. It does not indicate that he plays perimeter hockey though.

 

[Antropovsky]

Yup, definitely shows Marner is a playmaker more than a a goal scorer. It does not indicate that he plays perimeter hockey though.

Marner just went 20 consecutive games without a 5v5 primary assist. Quite the playmaker for sure. That's 1/4 of a full season.

 

[Antropovsky]

Yup, definitely shows Marner is a playmaker more than a a goal scorer. It does not indicate that he plays perimeter hockey though.

Tavares individual xgf, ihdc, iscf are quite significantly better with Nylander...which if Marner was such an incredible playmaker, shouldn't Tavares have more scoring chances with Marner, rather than with Nylander who is also one of the games best goal scorers?

Tavares stats with Nylander or Marner:

Tavares individual scoring chances:
With Nylander: 9.27/60
With Marner: 5.99/60

Tavares individual high danger chances:
With Nylander: 4.84/60
With Marner: 3.1/60

Tavares individual high danger chances:
With Nylander: 1.01/60
With Marner: 0.65/60

Tavares shots
With Nylander: 7.72
With Marner: 5.58

Tavares offensive stats are significantly better with Nylander than with Marner.

Also interesting is xGF and xGA
Tavares with Marner:
xGF/60: 2.07, xGA/60: 2.46
Tavares with Nylander:
xGF/60: 2.69, xGA/60: 2.60

 

[Antropovsky]

One last note about Marners apparent amazing playmaking.

- 2023, 2024 Nylander is 9th in the league in 5v5 goals with 44. He doesn't play 5v5 with Marner

- 2015, 2016, 2017 Tavares was 12th in the NHL in total 5v5 goals with 55. He didn't play with Marner.

- 2016-2017-2018 seasons Matthews was 1st in the NHL in 5v5 goals with 79. He didn't play with Marner.

Of course Marner picks up ALOT of assists. These guys are incredible goal scorers without him. Any top 6 player who flips between Matthews and Tavares (but primarily plays with Matthews) and plays on a PP with all three of Nylander, Tavares and Matthews guys is gonna pick up ALOT of assists.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Tavares individual xgf, ihdc, iscf are quite significantly better with Nylander...which if Marner was such an incredible playmaker, shouldn't Tavares have more scoring chances with Marner, rather than with Nylander who is also one of the games best goal scorers?

Tavares stats with Nylander or Marner:

Tavares individual scoring chances:
With Nylander: 9.27/60
With Marner: 5.99/60

Tavares individual high danger chances:
With Nylander: 4.84/60
With Marner: 3.1/60

Tavares individual high danger chances:
With Nylander: 1.01/60
With Marner: 0.65/60

Tavares shots
With Nylander: 7.72
With Marner: 5.58

Tavares offensive stats are significantly better with Nylander than with Marner.

Also interesting is xGF and xGA
Tavares with Marner:
xGF/60: 2.07, xGA/60: 2.46
Tavares with Nylander:
xGF/60: 2.69, xGA/60: 2.60

Despite your red herring, Marner is more of a play maker than goal scorer.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Marner just went 20 consecutive games without a 5v5 primary assist. Quite the playmaker for sure. That's 1/4 of a full season.

He has 68 assists this season. Sorry primary assists 44 of his 68 are primary. So that is like 65% (not quite actually 64.75 or there abouts). And you claim he went 20 games without one? Damn he is good.

 

[thewave]

He has 68 assists this season. Sorry primary assists 44 of his 68 are primary. So that is like 65% (not quite actually 64.75 or there abouts). And you claim he went 20 games without one? Damn he is good.

I think the funny stat on that is how many are on EN goals. When you dissect MMs numbers you are left with a player that is good but nowhere near 13m or whatever. By contrast Nylander is ramping up his value as he has turned into a league leading scorer from the 2nd line no less.

Nylander is more key to victory than Marner.