Player Discussion Mitch Marner Part Infinity

[Trapper]

I completely feel like this too. He had everything at the beginning to be one of the most loved Leafs ever, drafted hometown kid, element of magic and fun to his game like very few players have. Racking up Maple Leaf franchise records. And to have him leave like this with so little team success, it really is surreal.

Just because you put talented players together doesn’t mean you are guaranteed success. Unfortunately, you can’t wait 9 years to figure it out.
Remember Calgary had Bennett and Tkachuk at one time and Buffalo had Eichel and Reinhart. Nothing. One team couldn’t make the playoffs and one couldn’t get past the 2nd round. You have to evolve and change when you stagnate.

 

[Stephen]

Just because you put talented players together doesn’t mean you are guaranteed success. Unfortunately, you can’t wait 9 years to figure it out.
Remember Calgary had Bennett and Tkachuk at one time and Buffalo had Eichel and Reinhart. Nothing. One team couldn’t make the playoffs and one couldn’t get past the 2nd round. You have to evolve and change when you stagnate.

I think those are bad examples since Calgary and Buffalo didn't go on to have success or recover from their sell offs. But Florida moving on from Huberdeau was a necessary step in their evolution.

 

[ULF_55]

He wanted to play here (by the sounds of it), just wanted to figure it out after the season...

I understand both points of view.

We may never know, what was really his plan.

Maybe wanted to sign with Leafs, but we will have no idea what his ask was, unless he does end up signing in Toronto.

If he moves could be various reasons, pressure, money, teammates, management ...

I have no issues with him making his own decision. As adults we all have to make those types of decisions ... I left a company that didn't want me to leave, for more money, half way across the country. It wasn't just money, but money was the deciding factor.

 

[ULF_55]

As a Nevernude, I take offense.

Your birth must have been uncomfortable ...

 

[notDatsyuk]

I just don’t get it. Tre saying the “DNA” of the team needs to change. If your best and highest paid players, Matthews and Nylander, don’t have it, who could be brought in that would change their DNA? I think your top players need to have it, and then you bring in other players who also have it.
And Matthews throwing his teammates under the bus after the series was over, and of course not including himself, I just don’t see why the team would want to follow him after that.

Of the 4, I would say JT has it the most, and Mitch has it the least.

If your third-best player has the least 'it' and wants to be the highest paid, I think it's pretty clear which should go first. Especially considering that the other two have NMCs.

I'm not saying moving the others wouldn't help too, but it's a bit more involved.

 

[notDatsyuk]

LOL ... no pictures, as long as you make him look like a superstar and make your boss's life easy, you can, with in reason, demand your price. I do that so for now they keep me, when I stop being an asset, I lose my leverage. Everyday is an interview for your own job.

I think when you start talking about "competitive advantage" and "look like a superstar" and "make your boss' life easy", you lose the comparison with Marner.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Tre caved to WIllie and gave him the $11.5m he demanded. He also overpaid Matthews, Kampf, Reaves and probably Woll. He is not Dubas bad, but he could use improvement.

Willy is certainly overpaid, but he was underpaid before, and it's a bit hard to hold the line when two inferior players on the same team have been getting $11.

 

[notbias]

We may never know, what was really his plan.

Maybe wanted to sign with Leafs, but we will have no idea what his ask was, unless he does end up signing in Toronto.

If he moves could be various reasons, pressure, money, teammates, management ...

I have no issues with him making his own decision. As adults we all have to make those types of decisions ... I left a company that didn't want me to leave, for more money, half way across the country. It wasn't just money, but money was the deciding factor.

If I was an NHL player, Toronto would be in the bottom half of my list of teams I'd want to play for, so I understand no players wanting to play here and appreciate when some come home, and especially when they leave money on the table (Tavares).

 

[ULF_55]

If I was an NHL player, Toronto would be in the bottom half of my list of teams I'd want to play for, so I understand no players wanting to play here and appreciate when some come home, and especially when they leave money on the table (Tavares).

Funny, Toronto was an option for me, but I had no interest in moving there.

And I wouldn't have had people hounding me on the way to, from, or at work.

 

[notDatsyuk]

interesting.....

Marchand being Marchand. Why would he come here when he has so much more fun trolling us?

 

[notDatsyuk]

If Bennett thought at the time when he signed his last contract that he would be this kind of player, do you really think he would have signed for $4.25m? At the time he clearly thought he was a $4.25m player, he's overperformed even his own expectations.

Also let it sink in that players are paid for regular season games, linking his regular season salary to his playoff performance is foolish. His salary has nothing to do with the playoffs, they are not paid for playoff games.

The fact that their paycheck is the same whether the team makes the playoffs or not is not the same as saying their playoff performance doesn't impact their contract. You're mixing apples and oranges.

 

[Craig Button]

Agree, unless Bennett wants every penny possible like some players we know. I think he will stay with the Panthers as long as the offer is fair.

is there a site where you can compare contracts if they were playing for different teams?

Then we can see what the equivalent would be if he was playing for the Leafs

 

[Craig Button]

interesting.....

lol I can’t believe you would post your twitter feed

 

[Antropovsky]

What If ?
If Marner were a real team player and wanted to help the Leafs win a Cup, then when asked to waive his NMC for Rantanen he could have accepted.

Then the Leafs would have had Mikko and re-signed him for their playoff run while Marner would have played out this years playoffs in Carolina,

Then Mitch could have come back to Toronto as a UFA hero and re-signed with Toronto, while the Leafs let JT walk and recaptured his $11 mil instead of $10,9 from Marner.

Then Leafs could have had BOTH Rantanen and Marner in next year's line-up and walked away from Tavares instead,

Leafs top 4 wingers Nylander, Knies, Marner and Rantanen.

Marner wants to stay in Toronto. Its where he stands to gain the most. He just really wants his 3 year Matthews contract.

He loses his legacy in Toronto. No statue, no jersey raising, no retired number, no charity/no tax write off, no future gigs with the organization after retirement. No more god treatment.

There is alot to lose by leaving.

How many teams will offer a 3-4 year contract?
Do those teams have an elite point getter to boost Marners points?

If he goes to a team with less offensive support and Marners numbers drop to 75 point range... Marner stands to lose his entire career reputation and they will say he was a product of Matthews and Leafs high scoring offense.

At least in Toronto, he is near certain to play on Matthews wing and on a PP with Knies, Matthews, Nylander.

 

[leafs in five]

Remember Calgary had Bennett and Tkachuk at one time and Buffalo had Eichel and Reinhart. Nothing. One team couldn’t make the playoffs and one couldn’t get past the 2nd round. You have to evolve and change when you stagnate.

How did trading those guys away work out for those teams?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Regardless of how people think of Marner's PREDICTABLE leaving without any return is a big loss for the Leafs.

FTFY.

This was predictable.
Shanahan is a TOTAL failure. Everything he did was substandard: Dubas, Keefe, etc.
Total failure top to bottom.

 

[Mess]

Marner wants to stay in Toronto. Its where he stands to gain the most. He just really wants his 3 year Matthews contract.

MSN

That’s what the renowned tipster said on the most recent episode of his “32 Thoughts” podcast, when he said that such a small contract really is a possibility.

Marner, 28, could very well decide to do as Auston Matthews did and sign a shorter contract, in order to pocket even more in a few years’ time.

At 32, Marner could once again break the bank.

In short, there’s no guarantee that Marner will sign for seven years, and thus commit virtually the rest of his career to his new team.

He could very well decide to cut that into two contracts, in order to pocket more money in four years’ time.

So the former Leafs star doesn’t just have options in terms of teams, he also has options in terms of contract longevity. And in all this, the annual salary attached to Marner’s next contract might not vary so much depending on the number of years.

Marner is already expected to sign for between $11 and $14 million

This will be an interesting story to follow in the coming weeks, and we shouldn’t necessarily expect to learn of Marner’s decision on July 1.

 

[BallardEra]

Rumour Roundup: Mitch Marner's camp 'not engaged' with Maple Leafs

With just over two weeks until free agency, it appears as though Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs are headed toward a breakup.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[Stephen]

MSN

That’s what the renowned tipster said on the most recent episode of his “32 Thoughts” podcast, when he said that such a small contract really is a possibility.

Marner, 28, could very well decide to do as Auston Matthews did and sign a shorter contract, in order to pocket even more in a few years’ time.

At 32, Marner could once again break the bank.

In short, there’s no guarantee that Marner will sign for seven years, and thus commit virtually the rest of his career to his new team.

He could very well decide to cut that into two contracts, in order to pocket more money in four years’ time.

So the former Leafs star doesn’t just have options in terms of teams, he also has options in terms of contract longevity. And in all this, the annual salary attached to Marner’s next contract might not vary so much depending on the number of years.

Marner is already expected to sign for between $11 and $14 million

This will be an interesting story to follow in the coming weeks, and we shouldn’t necessarily expect to learn of Marner’s decision on July 1.

Once Marner leaves Toronto, my prediction is his superstar power dims a la Curtis Joseph leaving his hometown Maple Leafs to cup hunt in Detroit and you won't really think about him again... at the dollar amount he's going to be seeking, the fancy contract term riffing on Matthews, etc. I think he's too focused on the mercenary aspect of his career more than actual success. And without success you don't stay in the headlines.

 

[Antropovsky]

I posted Marner and Matthews advanced stats together and apart from 2021,2023 and 2024. into AI and asked it to provide a 3 paragraph summary of findings.

ENJOY!!

Here it is:
A thorough breakdown of 5v5 advanced metrics over the past three seasons shows that while Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are an effective duo, their individual impacts when separated are not equal. Matthews remains a dominant player even without Marner, maintaining a shot share (SF%) of 54.55% and an expected goals share (xGF%) of 57.44%. These values are well above the 50% break-even line — a crucial benchmark in hockey analytics that indicates whether a player is helping control the pace of play. Elite players typically sustain metrics in the 55–60% range across possession and chance quality stats, and Matthews achieves that even when separated from his most frequent linemate. His high-danger chance share (HDCF%) hovers around 59%, and his high-danger goal share (HDGF%) approaches 56%, confirming that he not only generates sustained offensive zone time but also translates those chances into actual goals. When paired with Marner, Matthews sees modest gains in those areas, especially in HDGF% (64%), but the baseline strength of his play without Marner indicates that he is a self-sufficient driver of elite play.

Marner, in contrast, experiences a marked decline in performance without Matthews, falling below the elite threshold in multiple critical areas. His SF% drops from an excellent 57.99% with Matthews to just 47.84% without — a signal that his teams are being outshot while he’s on the ice. Similarly, his xGF% falls from 60.32% to 48.74%, meaning the team is expected to give up more goals than it produces during his shifts — a sharp red flag for any top-line forward. In advanced stats, a player regularly below 50% in possession and expected goals metrics is not typically viewed as elite, because it indicates the opposition is generating more chances and likely spending more time in the offensive zone. His high-danger goal share (57.78%) remains decent and suggests that some finishing ability or defensive support exists, but without strong underlying shot and chance suppression, it appears more as an outlier than a sign of sustained dominance. These numbers show that Marner, when removed from Matthews, no longer controls the pace or flow of play, which is a defining quality of elite-level forwards.

In summary, Marner’s 5v5 performance without Matthews is not elite — his metrics drop into average or subpar territory by the standards used in advanced hockey analysis. Elite status at even strength requires consistently positive shot differential, high-quality chance generation, and strong expected goal impact, all of which Marner fails to sustain when away from Matthews. Matthews, meanwhile, comfortably maintains or exceeds those standards regardless of linemates, which supports the conclusion that he is the primary engine driving their line’s success. Their partnership works very well — but the data reveals a directional dependency: Matthews lifts Marner far more than Marner lifts Matthews. This distinction is important not just for evaluating individual player value, but also for understanding the construction and performance sustainability of Toronto’s top line.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Marner, 28, could very well decide to do as Auston Matthews did and sign a shorter contract, in order to pocket even more in a few years’ time.

There is zero appetite to Ȓ̷͇̺̻̝̤̹̭̦̙͖̈̚Ȗ̷̦̜̰̠̺̯͇̇͐͆̈́̐͛̽̇̽̆͘̚N̸̡̡̹̝͔̗̪̓̇͗̌̀ ̴̰͙͈̹̙̪̟͇̘͊I̶̧̧͎̺̺̗͉̻̲̥̎̀Ț̴̖͚̖̬̳͖̠̥̼̻̘͔͚͚͒͊̀̄̿́͜ͅ ̶̡͓̥̭̭̟̹͂͋̉B̸͔͔̌̈́̐̅̌͆Ą̷̘̜̻̯̪̱̦̹͈̗̞͍̖̗̏̆͋͋̎Ç̶̣̦̯̭̜̥̰̫̹͍̳̲̰̋̅̆̌́̇̈́̓͊̽̃͌̿̕̚͠ͅK̴̨̮̪̤̼͎̏͐́̓̎̆̓͗́͜ ̸̧͎͔̺͔̘̹͔͕͎̿̾̒͗̅̽̅̅̑͛̎̕͝
again.

Tre surely isn't this dumb.

I guess Tre could dump Tavares and keep Marner. Marner needs change for his mental health, so he won't come back. He can go to the West Coast and get injured the game before coming back here.

Tre wants some cap flexibility.

 

[Confucius]

Willy is certainly overpaid, but he was underpaid before, and it's a bit hard to hold the line when two inferior players on the same team have been getting $11.

I’d bet if you gave William 2 choices stay and honour your contract of 7 more years at 11.5 or take your chances as a ufa and we just rip up your deal, he’d choose the ufa. William is not overpaid when looking at the next 7 years.

 

[Craig Button]

Leaf fans and media used to be stupid

They still are

But they used to, too!

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Marner

He's has decided to play too small for post season success.
nevermind his regular season darling stats.

So does Matthews and Nylander.

but at least they can score.

 

[daveleaf]

That’s the culture of Panthers and that’s why I said whoever gets in that lineup will end up playing that way.

Mitch will never play that way. I doubt they would give him a second look because of that. Marchand plays that way and that is why he seamlessly fits with them. Marriner could fit with that team and I believe dissension would begin to set in.