Player Discussion Mitch Marner Part Infinity

[thewave]

Alluded to this in another thread, but below is a summary of Marner's equivalent ask for each NHL city when factoring in 1) cost of living between Toronto and NHL city X; and 2) Net Salary in Toronto vs. NHL city Y.

This is a pure like-for-like tax and purchasing power parity comparison. Assume that the 8th year is a red herring in this model (but is a potential factor in actual negotiations). Assume that Marner's asking price from Toronto is $14M USD given that he turned down $13.5M X 8 earlier.

Conclusions

1) Unless he has a complete change of heart after "talking to his family (and agent)", he gone bro lol. The effective tax rate that he'd pay in Toronto at his income is 53.53%

2) It is no surprise that the teams that have no state tax are able to field much more competitive teams due to a 25-30% PPP advantage (Dallas, Tampa, Florida).

3) So just for some perspective, Rantanen's $12M AAV in Dallas is $13.3M AAV in Toronto lol. So even had that trade gone through with Carolina, I don't think the Leafs would have got Rantanen on $12M AAV. Probably closer to $13.3M - is everyone cool with that? lol

Table

The bolded capitalized teams below are the ones in which I think there would be mutual interest.

NHL Team	Required Gross Salary (USD, millions)
Anaheim Ducks	17.11
Boston Bruins	15.40
Buffalo Sabres	11.20
Calgary Flames	11.90
Carolina Hurricanes	11.90
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS	13.30
Colorado Avalanche	11.90
Columbus Blue Jackets	10.18
Dallas Stars	10.98 (* previous calculation error)
Detroit Red Wings	11.90
Edmonton Oilers	11.90
FLORIDA PANTHERS	10.55 (* previous calculation error)
Los Angeles Kings	17.11
Minnesota Wild	11.90
Montreal Canadiens	11.90
NASHVILLE PREDATORS	11.90
New Jersey Devils	15.40
New York Islanders	18.58
New York Rangers	18.58
Ottawa Senators	14.00
Philadelphia Flyers	11.45
Pittsburgh Penguins	11.45
San Jose Sharks	17.11
Seattle Kraken	11.45
St. Louis Blues	11.90
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING	11.70 (* previous calculation error)
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS	14.00
Utah Mammoth	12.72
Vancouver Canucks	14.98
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS	11.85
Washington Capitals	11.45
Winnipeg Jets	11.90

Great work.

I think he will sign between 10m and 11.5m in the US. I do not see him coming back here.

What is not factored is that he makes way more money on endorsement deal around here then he will elsewhere. He has taken advantage of that and not factored it in for the benefit of the team. Essentially he could probably sign here for 12m no problem and still exceed 14m with endorsements etc.

Just a greedy dud

 

[Racer88]

Yep bc MM fans think MM is much better than Rantanen

They sure seem too

 

[Racer88]

Do we have any actual proof that the leafs offered him 13.5 X8 ?

 

[FerrisRox]

Rantanen is softer than Marner doesn’t penalty kill and would probably fail hard in Berube’s dump and chase game.

You don't have a clue what you are talking about.

Rantanen isn't remotely soft and uses his size and strength extremely well to protect the puck and to win board battles. He would be outstanding in Berube's system.

 

[Racer88]

No wonder Gaudreau went to Columbus, they have the lowest number

It’s also Columbus so that’s a major downer of a city

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Great work.

I think he will sign between 10m and 11.5m in the US. I do not see him coming back here.

What is not factored is that he makes way more money on endorsement deal around here then he will elsewhere. He has taken advantage of that and not factored it in for the benefit of the team. Essentially he could probably sign here for 12m no problem and still exceed 14m with endorsements etc.

Just a greedy dud

RE: Your bolded points raise a really interesting topic.

Yeah - endorsements are definitely a factor in which his gross earnings in Toronto would exceed $12M per annum quite easily. But because of high taxes, he's still worse off than if he just goes to somewhere like Vegas.

I do wonder though, how much of this is driven by Marner's own non-vocalized demands versus his agent Darren Ferris dictating things? Marner hasn't come across as the sharpest tool in the shed nor the most opinionated, at least based on his interview responses. His father and his agent, on the other hand, seem to be much more involved than one would otherwise expect.

It could very well be something where Mitch just "trusts" his agent to get the best deal possible for him and go along with the flow. It doesn't excuse his dumbass comments or his horrible playoff play, but it could explain some of his tone deaf behaviour which has ingratiated himself to fans.

Just some raw numbers and facts:

• Agents take roughly 3-5% of the TAKE HOME (e.g. Net Pay) of the Player
• Agents take roughly 15% of the GROSS PAY of the endorsement.

So if you look at these two scenarios that you've specified above:

SCENARIO A - RE-SIGN IN TORONTO FOR $12.0M AAV X 8.

• Salary: $12.0M Gross, $5.4M Net (Agent Commission @ 5%: $0.270M)
• Endorsements: Assume $2.0M Gross, $0.529M Net (Agent Commission @ 15%: $0.300M)

Net for Marner: $5.93M
Net for Agent Ferriss: $0.57M

SCENARIO B - SIGN IN LAS VEGAS FOR $11.5M AAV X 7

• Salary: $11.5M Gross, $7.29M Net (Agent Commission @ 5%: $0.37M)
• Endorsements: Assume $1.0M Gross, $0.54M Net (Agent Commission @ 20%: $0.15M)

Net for Marner: $7.83M
Net for Agent Ferriss: $0.52M

Observations:

• Even in your scenario, because of taxes, Marner would be almost $2M USD better off in pure take home pay and around $1.8M USD per annum better off when factoring in cost of living / purchasing power
• Ferriss would be $50K better off for Marner to re-sign in Toronto, but if I were him, I'd push for him to go to Vegas because the agent would be $100K better off per annum off of the salary alone. As the endorsements are variable per year, they are effectively a risk for both the player and agent. Scenario B is more guaranteed money and less effort for both player and agent.

Conclusions:

• Marner is still a greedy little shit and is driven by money. We've already established this.
• But his agent is also likely pushing hard for him to move to maximize his returns. It's a net $15M USD difference over the lifecycle of the contract, which is not nothing
• Canadian teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs will need to overpay consistently to be competitive against a lot of Southern US teams
  • This is why I'm a strong proponent of locking up youth on 8-year pacts to buy up their UFA years ASAP (e.g. Knies, Cowan) versus dipping into the UFA pool where you already have to overpay by nature, but 2x overpay as a Canadian franchise

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I also love how some are trying to change the narrative now that the Canes are getting their a**es whopped: “Hey look, others are also losing to that team! Us losing to them should now count as a win!….please?!?!?”

The main thing that the Canes are showing us is that we are at least heading in the right direction when it comes to playoff style hockey. The smallish, shot spamming Canes are getting dummied compared to us. They are at one end of the spectrum and FLA is at the other...we are on the sliding scale closer to FLA at least. Just need to bulk up with some meaner players. It's not like FLA has an over abundance of skill right now. They just all buy in. We need that too.

 

[Craig Button]

You don't have a clue what you are talking about.

Rantanen isn't remotely soft and uses his size and strength extremely well to protect the puck and to win board battles. He would be outstanding in Berube's system.

Rantanen uses his size?
Rantanen uses his body to protect the puck?
He wins puck battles?

The guy is near the bottom of his Team in Hits

And middle of the pack in Take Aways

Dallas Stars Post Season Player Stats 2025 | StatMuse

dallas stars post season player stats 2025

www.statmuse.com

 

[keonsbitterness]

Do we have any actual proof that the leafs offered him 13.5 X8 ?

A few of the talking heads have alleged it, so I think it's true.

 

[Menzinger]

Listening to one of the recent CJ podcasts, he refused to outright say Marner is gone 100%. Now I'd say the safer bet at this point is that it's happening, but there's probably slightly higher odds that he may stay than we think (even if it's only like 10-20ish %). The 8th year is a big advantage to any offer in terms of dollars in his bank account, and you never know how emotions are going to be like ina. Few weeks once things settle down a bit

A few of the talking heads have alleged it, so I think it's true.

In the earlier winter, Mirtle said the Leafs were hoping to keep it under 13.2, so having a last offer at 13.5 before the tdl isn't a total stretch.

 

[FerrisRox]

Rantanen uses his size?

Yes.

Rantanen uses his body to protect the puck?

Absolutely.

He wins puck battles?

Routinely.

The guy is near the bottom of his Team in Hits

And middle of the pack in Take Aways

Dallas Stars Post Season Player Stats 2025 | StatMuse

dallas stars post season player stats 2025

www.statmuse.com

Are you for real?

Do you think a big body who uses his reach and strength to drive to the net requires bodychecking?

Do you think using you size to protect the puck and keep the opponent at arms length is hitting?

Do you think winning a battle along the boards or in the corner involves hitting?

Your response is hilarious, but it's not a response to what I said about Rantanen at all.

You might as well tell me how many secondary assists he got this season on the road. That also has nothing to do with what I'm talking about.

 

[centipede2233]

Listening to one of the recent CJ podcasts, he refused to outright say Marner is gone 100%. Now I'd say the safer bet at this point is that it's happening, but there's probably slightly higher odds that he may stay than we think (even if it's only like 10-20ish %). The 8th year is a big advantage to any offer in terms of dollars in his bank account, and you never know how emotions are going to be like ina. Few weeks once things settle down a bit



In the earlier winter, Mirtle said the Leafs were hoping to keep it under 13.2, so having a last offer at 13.5 before the tdl isn't a total stretch.

Here’s the problem with signing marner, his game does not translate to playoff hockey that isn’t changing. He refuses to take accountability and when things get tough he becomes adversarial with media/fans, that also isn’t changing. So I say good riddance. I don’t even want him back at $1. He is not a likeable player and he’s not a likeable person. Why the hell would you want that on your team in a game where one player does not impact the game like a quarterback, pitcher or nba all star.

 

[FerrisRox]

Listening to one of the recent CJ podcasts, he refused to outright say Marner is gone 100%. Now I'd say the safer bet at this point is that it's happening, but there's probably slightly higher odds that he may stay than we think (even if it's only like 10-20ish %).

I think the odds of him staying are much, much higher. I would say the odds of him re-signing in Toronto are closer to 60 percent.

I can't say why I think that, because of rules on the site, but the odds of the Leafs retaining him, or absolutely trying to keep him, are much higher.

 

[centipede2233]

The main thing that the Canes are showing us is that we are at least heading in the right direction when it comes to playoff style hockey. The smallish, shot spamming Canes are getting dummied compared to us. They are at one end of the spectrum and FLA is at the other...we are on the sliding scale closer to FLA at least. Just need to bulk up with some meaner players. It's not like FLA has an over abundance of skill right now. They just all buy in. We need that too.

The problem is that Florida’s star forwards, Barkov, reinhart, Tkachuk 2 of them are elite defensively and all 3 have a physical element. Taveras, Nylander, matthews, marner and Reilly bring ZERO physicality. That’s the difference and until the core changes, you ain’t changing sh*t

 

[TheGreenTBer]

You don't have a clue what you are talking about.

Rantanen isn't remotely soft and uses his size and strength extremely well to protect the puck and to win board battles. He would be outstanding in Berube's system.

Ignore him man, he's nothing but a cheerleader.

 

[notbias]

Leafs were a Mikko Rantanen away from still competing in the final 4.

An opportunity at a Cup torn away by and unwanted player with only his own interests at heart.

It is hilarious how unbelievably wrong you are all the time...

All the reports of the Leafs wanting to sign Marner and you still choose to be wrong, it is amazing, good job.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I think the odds of him staying are much, much higher. I would say the odds of him re-signing in Toronto are about closer to 60 percent.

I can't say why I think that, because of rules on the site, but the odds of the Leafs retaining him, or absolutely trying to keep him, are much higher.

I am intrigued by what you know. All other indications based on narratives, evidence to date, and simple figures (see my other posts) suggest that Marner is 95% gone.

Whatever you know/are privy to, it'd have to be pretty seismic to tip the scale from a 5% chance to 60% chance. I believe you, but I'm trying to play out in my head what those scenarios could possibly be (i.e. extenuating family circumstances is the only one that I could come up with).

 

[PROUD PAPA]

He’ll be back for 8 more years.

 

[notbias]

Yes.



Absolutely.



Routinely.



Are you for real?

Do you think a big body who uses his reach and strength to drive to the net requires bodychecking?

Do you think using you size to protect the puck and keep the opponent at arms length is hitting?

Do you think winning a battle along the boards or in the corner involves hitting?

Your response is hilarious, but it's not a response to what I said about Rantanen at all.

You might as well tell me how many secondary assists he got this season on the road. That also has nothing to do with what I'm talking about.

He wins fewer puck battles than Tavares or Matthews.

Unless he is playing 3rd line, he is not helping much there.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I am intrigued by what you know. All other indications based on narratives, evidence to date, and simple figures (see my other posts) suggest that Marner is 95% gone.

Whatever you know/are privy to, it'd have to be pretty seismic to tip the scale from a 5% chance to 60% chance. I believe you, but I'm trying to play out in my head what those scenarios could possibly be (i.e. extenuating family circumstances is the only one that I could come up with).

60% is too far for me, but I put it at more than 5% because staying is always the easier option, and the relationship between the team and the player isn't fractured (as far as we know).

 

[FerrisRox]

I am intrigued by what you know. All other indications based on narratives, evidence to date, and simple figures (see my other posts) suggest that Marner is 95% gone.

Whatever you know/are privy to, it'd have to be pretty seismic to tip the scale from a 5% chance to 60% chance. I believe you, but I'm trying to play out in my head what those scenarios could possibly be (i.e. extenuating family circumstances is the only one that I could come up with).

Again, I apologize as I can't give you any details because this site (rightfully) requires a person to source where they are getting information if they are offering up, but I will say this: If Mitch Marner leaves the Maple Leafs this summer, it's because he wants to go, not because the Maple Leafs are moving on from him.

 

[notbias]

Hyman led the league in playoff goals last season with 16 and two years before that he was second with 11. In this year’s playoffs he’s leading the league in hits. Name a Leaf who’s accomplished anything close to that for $5M. He does a lot more than try.

I am glad he did something on another team and absolutely sucked here.

Defend his time here, please.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Again, I apologize as I can't give you any details because this site (rightfully) requires a person to source where they are getting information if they are offering up, but I will say this: If Mitch Marner leaves the Maple Leafs this summer, it's because he wants to go, not because the Maple Leafs are moving on from him.

To be honest, I'm terrified because I believe you.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

60% is too far for me, but I put it at more than 5% because staying is always the easier option, and the relationship between the team and the player isn't fractured (as far as we know).

Again, I apologize as I can't give you any details because this site (rightfully) requires a person to source where they are getting information if they are offering up, but I will say this: If Mitch Marner leaves the Maple Leafs this summer, it's because he wants to go, not because the Maple Leafs are moving on from him.

I hear you both. I think the org legit wants to keep him, but I feel like the guy's psychological safety is gone. I think there's a 5-10% chance he stays and probably only it's because the offers he's seeking/expecting may not materialize. And so better the devil you know....at $14M per season sigh

To be honest, I'm terrified because I believe you.

Yes. Hold me - I'm scared too haha.
$14M x 8.

 

[Ports]

I am glad he did something on another team and absolutely sucked here.

Defend his time here, please.

I loved him here. Forechecked hard, got the puck to his high scoring linemates and scored at nearly a 30 goal pace. All for $2.25M. His issue was the knee injury he incurred just before the playoffs. They bailed on him too early. As soon as they traded him they were looking for his replacement.Now he’s further developed his scoring skills but that had already begun as a Leaf and he’s a bargain at $5M.