Player Discussion Mitch Marner Part Infinity

[BlueForever75]

I would happily sign Bennett and Ekblad if their combined value is $15M AAV x 7 with partial NTC/NMC.

I just don't see it though. I think their combined AAV will be closer to $22M AAV, and probably even $23M+ AAV to bring them over the line to sign in Toronto.

Bennett will sign for 8-9 million per season
Ekblad will sign for 7-8 million per season

$15-17 million combined. Not a penny more based on comparable's over the past 24 months.

Just look at recent dmen and forwards to sign the past 2 years

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Disagree. Marner will sign for 13+ million and not less. With that contract you can easily get a player like Bennett8-9 million per season. Not to mention another player like Reilly needing to be gone. With eliminating him and Marner you can easily fit Bennett and Ekblad with money to spare.

Ekblad and Bennett shouldnt cost more then $17 million annually. Marner on a raise and Reilly will be around $21.5 million annually. Which would you rather have?

Your argument is actually Ekblad + Bennett ($17M) + Rielly ($7.5M) = $25M because you have to convince Rielly to waive first and to specific teams.

We can agree to disagree - but let's make a bet come July. You're saying $17M AAV for the two, I'm saying $22M. Let's see who is closer. Especially with their performances, both are the #1 C and #1 D this offseason for teams that are flush with cash. Toronto is one of the most expensive cities in North America with a high tax rate (check out www.numbeo.com for comparisons). If they sign for $17M in Las Vegas or Nashville, my bet is that they and their agents would expect closer to $22M+ to make things square.

To answer your question

1) If Ekblad + Bennett = $17M AND Rielly waives, then I'd take them over Marner at $13.5M
2) If Ekblad + Bennett = $17M AND Rielly does NOT waive, then I'd take Marner at $13.5M because you're looking at $25M vs. $21M
3) If Ekblad + Bennett = $22M+, then I'd take Marner at $13.5M irrespective of what Rielly does.

I still think it's #3, but we'll see come July.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I don't think Ekblad and Bennett will be 22mil. They will be around 17-19mil.

yep, as per my other post. Let's see how it plays out in July. I reserve the right to be completely wrong, in which case I'll eat crow and give you your due

 

[Stephen]

Here are facts are being reported,

Treliving WAS willing to deal Marner for Rantanen even with a NMC to approach,

Treliving WASN'T willing to deal Matty Knies in a deal for Rantanen.

Treliving WAS willing to trade prospects (Minten, Cowan) and picks 1st's for Rantanen, but Carolina liked the Dallas deal better.

Makes a pretty strong statement as to whom GM Treliving prefers MORE.

Well, it was also pretty obvious who has the tools between Marner and Knies to make a statement in the playoffs, who is so happy to be in Toronto and who has untapped upside.

 

[Gabriel426]

No, I'm not a Marner fanboy. My preference is not to sign Marner and get short-term 1-2 year deals on guys like Marchand, Duchene, and 5-6 year term deals for defensive defencemen like Gavikrov. Then see what's available in summer 2026 and continue to build while exploring options. I would only consider Marner at his asking price without a full NMC/NTC or at $12M (neither of which he will agree to).

I am strongly opposed to releasing $22M from Marner and Tavares only to splurge it long-term on players who will elicit buyer's remorse by Year 2 or 3. Bennett is good, but he's not $10M+ good as a 29 year old center, let alone as a 34 year old 5 years into the contract when the Leafs' competitive window will likely be over. Same with Ekblad who literally misses 25-30 games a season and would be looking for similar numbers and probably only play half of his contract before going on LITR.

From a pure asset management perspective, Marner at $13M would be substantially more valuable than signing Bennett or Ekblad to a 7 year deal at $10M-$11M.

Have to disagree with you here. As I don't think Bennett and Ekblad will be around 10-11mil. Also Leafs' window is NOW unless they trade AM. If it doesn't plan out in a few years, you trade all these guys away and rebuild with Knies as the focus.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Bennett will sign for 8-9 million per season
Ekblad will sign for 7-8 million per season

$15-17 million combined. Not a penny more based on comparable's over the past 24 months.

Just look at recent dmen and forwards to sign the past 2 years

Yeah, let's circle back in July. I'll give you your due if I'm completely wrong.

RE: bolded, this was BEFORE the cap rises were announced. Each of these guys are looking for a 7 year, big contract payday. I think $7M in 2023 is going to be $10M-$11M this offseason.

Same reason why I think Marner will go for around $13M-$14M when the dust is settled and become the highest paid NHL player. And same reason why I think Kaprizov will beat that by $1M-$2M next summer.

 

[ashs]

I think if the Leafs swapped out MM, JT, and Rielly for Bennett, Marchand, and Ekblad, they'd be heavy favorites to make it to the Cup Final. This is even if the Panthers sign someone like Boeser with their $19M or so capspace heading into next season.

Now here's a hot take....I'd rather re-sign MM, JT, and keep Rielly and run it back knowing that the Panthers will lose 2 or all 3 of these 3 free agents. The Leafs took the Panthers to 7, and I don't see the Panthers beating the Leafs again if they're missing these core players.

Signing Bennett, Marchand, and Ekblad will help you in Year 1 but have significant diminishing returns. Ekblad is going to be 30 and is a complete force, but his physical age is probably closer to 36 or 37 given his mileage, previous injuries, and PED use (to cover up chronic injuries?). Marchand is literally going to be 38. Bennett would be a solid addition, but not at $10M X 7.

I'd actually rather take Marner on $13.5M X 8; Tavares on $5M x 3; and Rielly as with a $3.5M AAV buyout if needed because it's less a hell lot less long-term risk than signing those Panthers to long-term deals.

This is a good take. Leafs were in it against the best. Still have work to do but we are close.

 

[Stephen]

Your argument is actually Ekblad + Bennett ($17M) + Rielly ($7.5M) = $25M because you have to convince Rielly to waive first and to specific teams.

We can agree to disagree - but let's make a bet come July. You're saying $17M AAV for the two, I'm saying $22M. Let's see who is closer. Especially with their performances, both are the #1 C and #1 D this offseason for teams that are flush with cash. Toronto is one of the most expensive cities in North America with a high tax rate (check out www.numbeo.com for comparisons). If they sign for $17M in Las Vegas or Nashville, my bet is that they and their agents would expect closer to $22M+ to make things square.

To answer your question

1) If Ekblad + Bennett = $17M AND Rielly waives, then I'd take them over Marner at $13.5M
2) If Ekblad + Bennett = $17M AND Rielly does NOT waive, then I'd take Marner at $13.5M because you're looking at $25M vs. $21M
3) If Ekblad + Bennett = $22M+, then I'd take Marner at $13.5M irrespective of what Rielly does.

I still think it's #3, but we'll see come July.

I feel like Toronto almost needs to directly overpay for Florida’s Bennett and Ekblad just to change the delta between the two franchises. Like there’s additional value in damaging and disassembling their pieces as much as it is about getting better.

 

[ashs]

Give marner his own line. Sign him to a reasonable deal. Rielly is done.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I feel like Toronto almost needs to directly overpay for Florida’s Bennett and Ekblad just to change the delta between the two franchises. Like there’s additional value in damaging and disassembling their pieces as much as it is about getting better.

haha, I'm thinking of it as a zero sum as well - but as long as Florida doesn't do an about face and sign Marner and Gavrikov as replacements.

I don't see why Florida would NOT want Marner. Just because the guy plays soft in Toronto and has deficiencies doesn't mean that these deficiencies would be as glaring on a hard-nosed team like Florida. Also, putting Matthew Tkachuk back with Marner could be pretty electric. Throw in the tax benefits, and he'd probably come in $1.5-2M lower than whatever he'd accept from Toronto.

 

[Stephen]

haha, I'm thinking of it as a zero sum as well - but as long as Florida doesn't do an about face and sign Marner and Gavrikov as replacements.

I don't see why Florida would NOT want Marner. Just because the guy plays soft in Toronto and has deficiencies doesn't mean that these deficiencies would be as glaring on a hard-nosed team like Florida. Also, putting Matthew Tkachuk back with Marner could be pretty electric. Throw in the tax benefits, and he'd probably come in $1.5-2M lower than whatever he'd accept from Toronto.

I dunno about you, but I would be a lot more comfortable on the caveman end of a playoff matchup against Mitch Marner than the ballet end of that matchup. If he chose the Florida route I would have no problem building a team that can grind him into a fine dust in any matchup.

 

[thewave]

Mitch doesn't want to go to Canadian teams:

MSN

Yeah because lower tax US teams are better for his bank account. Pretty obvious what this guys been about for years now.

 

[Mess]

Well, it was also pretty obvious who has the tools between Marner and Knies to make a statement in the playoffs, who is so happy to be in Toronto and who has untapped upside.

Knies is a machine gun, and Marner is a butter knife, in terms of being qualified for a playoff style gun fight.

Knies was a playoff beast, and outplayed his high-priced underperforming linemates by a significant amount., If you and team full of Knies style type players you would have a successful playoff teams in terms of player personnel.

"Too many passengers" the catch phrase that came out of these playoffs would be directed at players like Marner and Matthews.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I dunno about you, but I would be a lot more comfortable on the caveman end of a playoff matchup against Mitch Marner than the ballet end of that matchup. If he chose the Florida route I would have no problem building a team that can grind him into a fine dust in any matchup.

Yeah, I get that - but even if you neutralize Marner, it's still Barkov, Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, and Reinhart.

My biggest issue is, ok, you swap out Marner and Tavares for Bennett and Ekblad. This team really struggled to score at times this season, and this substitution makes them even thinner.

The only way that I can envision this working is:

• You manage to convince Rielly to waive and manage to dump his full $7.5M (tough sell). That gives you about $34M in capspace
• I'm dead wrong and Bennett and Ekblad cost you $17M instead of my estimated $22M
• You give up on the McDavid pipe dream and sign Boeser AND Ehlers to a combined $15M AAV [I think they'll go for about $18M AAV combined tbh].
• You bridge Knies at 2 x $4.5M and move out Kampf

This team would then definitely be better balanced than what we had this year, but that's a lot of ifs and a lot of things would have to go right... (including when has 4 premium UFAs ever signed with one team lol). But I'd be happy to roll with the roster below for the remainder of the decade.

Knies Matthews Boeser
Ehlers Bennett Nylander
McMann Domi Cowan
Holmberg Laughton Jarnkrok

McCabe Tanev
OEL Ekblad
Benoit Carlo

Stolarz
Woll

 

[Bronxxx]

After Pellys conference I’m convinced a take it or leave it offer with term will be Mariners decision. Legacy vs. Greed.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Confucius]

For those that thought, well what else could Bérubé say when asked about JT and next year. Now that’s quite a bit different than saying 100%. lol

 

[Gabriel426]

For those that thought, well what else could Bérubé say when asked about JT and next year. Now that’s quite a bit different than saying 100%. lol

That’s why one is a high executive and the other is a former player who turns coach, lol.

 

[Confucius]

That’s why one is a high executive and the other is a former player who turns coach, lol.

He wouldn’t say 100%, he could say. I hope we can work out a deal.

Or maybe one reads hfboards. Lol

 

[Antropovsky]

Give marner his own line. Sign him to a reasonable deal. Rielly is done.

Sigh... people really dont get it.

9 years of this guy being completely useless and you think taking elite players off his line will make him better?

There is literally, articles every offseason about him struggling in postseasons.

This is from Marners playoffs in 2017, sound familiar? Its the very same thing said this year and every year.... and we all just keep waiting lol.

Notice at the bottom, Babs says is a big moment guy and he will find it.... well he didnt even record a shot as per usual. His line of JVR Bozak Marner was outplayed by a wide margin.with a corsi and fenwick in the 30's%.

 

[Gabriel426]

Or maybe one reads hfboards. Lol

Shhhhh, don't let people know that, lol.

 

[Dragao6]

After Pellys conference I’m convinced a take it or leave it offer with term will be Mariners decision. Legacy vs. Greed.

100%
What should have happened in Nylanders first contract and etc…

It’s a privilege to be a leaf.
If they are serious about winning and running the club the right way u offer Marner 100k more then Nylander in a take it or leave it tomorrow x8
If it’s a no u try to trade his rights soon. For me idieally u send him to Utah for crouse.

Tavares is a 3rd line center 3-4 million tops if he truly wants to be here, he’s been paid enough


Big yes to Ekblad
I get we’re desperate to win but 8-9 million for Bennett is insane haha, stay away

Grow some balls!!! Seems like Tre has the confidence to make such decisions!!

 

[Gabriel426]

100%
What should have happened in Nylanders first contract and etc…

It’s a privilege to be a leaf.
If they are serious about winning and running the club the right way u offer Marner 100k more then Nylander in a take it or leave it tomorrow x8
If it’s a no u try to trade his rights soon. For me idieally u send him to Utah for crouse.

Tavares is a 3rd line center 3-4 million tops if he truly wants to be here, he’s been paid enough


Big yes to Ekblad
I get we’re desperate to win but 8-9 million for Bennett is insane haha, stay away

Grow some balls!!! Seems like Tre has the confidence to make such decisions!!

I really just don’t see them bringing the band back and expecting different results.
Maybe if both MM and JT contracts have NO NTC or NMC.

 

[Dragao6]

I really just don’t see them bringing the band back and expecting different results.
Maybe if both MM and JT contracts have NO NTC or NMC.

It’s more about paying them what their worth while team still has cap space to bring in other pieces we desperately need!

Past years it’s the top 4 and we can’t add anyone else

 

[Stringer Bell]

This is a good take. Leafs were in it against the best. Still have work to do but we are close.

Uh...no. Saying we took the Panthers to 7 is bordering on disingenuous when you say it as a blanket statement. Game 5 and game 7 tell a different story. We are not close.