Player Discussion Mitch Marner Part Infinity

[ToneDog]

Ehlers is another overpay candidate.

Nylander and Ehlers also have a pretty comparable style of play - after dealing with a core 4 that have all largely been the same style of player for so long, I'd be pretty frustrated with them letting Marner go only to bring in another floaty high skilled winger who doesn't really have that jam or physicality.

Ehlers has more jam than 16 and 88. At the right number, I'd be interested. I have concerns with his history of injuries though.

 

[francis246]

Some people say "fan toxicity will drive him out of town". If he doesn't show up and produce in the next 2 or 3 games, hell yea i will drive him out of town. Enough. Anyway, sorry, I just really want to see this team win the cup. I care deeply. That's why I can get emotional at times. Just produce and deliver us a cup, or at least the 3rd round.

You don’t have to apologize, you want the team to win. Also Marner isn’t one that should be free from criticism, I think all players deserve to be called out. My only issue is Marner gets it at an insane clip compared to anyone else on the team and that’s what I find to be a little wacky and unfair. Like Matthews hasn’t scored a goal in the second round as a leaf and people are still bitching about Marner, it doesn’t make sense to me! Love him or hate him, he has made goal scoring contributions to help the team win games against Florida in both 2023 and this year. 2023 he scored in a 2-1 win in game 4 against Florida (5 v 5 goal too)

I don’t subscribe to Marner will leave cause of fans. Marner will leave cause he doesn’t believe he can win here, more money or just wants a different situation for himself/family ect. I’m sure the fans maybe play a little part, but maybe not as much as some have been pushing it.

Even if they win you could make the argument that would be a good time to reset and let Marner walk. So there’s lots of pieces to this puzzle. I’m hoping the get it done this year too

 

[ToneDog]

I certainly wouldn't count on Ehlers as any Marner replacement if Marner left. The price would be very undesirable and it's a significant downgrade (playoffs and all)

That is where I am at. Not my first choice but if Marner walks, I'd be interested in Ehlers up to 60% Marner money but he'll get more.

 

[hamzarocks]

Predicting a 1+1 for 34, 16, 88, and 91 today

They get us 4Gs and someone scores a ENG and we take it 5-2

Core will deliver tonight

 

[ACC1224]

Why would the Leafs offer Marner more than 12 million dollars? For what? People always wanna excuse him for not really showing up when it matters most. I don't understand why nobody can criticize him, and why is that considered "toxic"? My fandom will be tested if the Leafs re-sign him for more money if he doesn't show up here and lead the Leafs to the 3rd round. Sick of this franchise bending over for these guys and them not delivering.

Perhaps the team doesn't feel he alone is the problem and after finally winning a Division aren't ready to move on from the guy who led the Team in scoring by 20 points and plays in all situations.

It doesn't sound like you want him to stay at any cost but if you look at it objectively you can see why the Team wouldn't be so quick to just let him walk.

 

[seventieslord]

I used to be sign Marner at all costs. I’ve kind of accepted we’ll be okay if we don’t. (Im not gonna go full out and say we’ll be better because I truly don’t believe that, this division is too good and losing a 99-100 point guy is going to be tough to replace) I watched London vs Oshawa yesterday and earlier in the week. Let me tell yall something. Marner’s replacement is Easton Cowan.

He might not get 90 points every year but he’s really talented. Sees the ice extremely well like Marner and can make the same plays, but he forechecks hard, he’s first on pucks all the damn time. My only saving grace for letting Marner walk is I think we have a more physical version of Marner who will be available to the team this coming year.

I also don’t want the leafs to spend all the savings this summer. Leave some cap space to be able to pull off a trade if need be and look at next years UFA crop when we have another set of players expiring.

I’d grab a 3C and a top 6 winger, preferably Boeser

Right, and neither of those players will be anything close to what Marner is, but you exchange him and a guy making $800,000 for two guys like that, and your team might actually be better.

I'd caution you about having too much enthusiasm on Cowan too. His OHL numbers suggest he has maybe 80% the upside of Marner. He's also not ranking nearly as highly on prospect rankings as Marner did. When we had Marner waiting in the wings, we had a prospect almost no one else had. Everyone has their own Cowan. Still, it could be a blessing in disguise because maybe he's a better fit and doesn't demand 11M+ in his prime.

I'd also be careful projecting his style of play to the NHL. It's nice to see him playing with a little jam in junior, but IIRC that was a part of Marner's game when he was 18. Put that fish in the big pond and he may not come across as anything special in that regard. A small player with a little jam, might just be a small player, at the NHL level.

I also would not expect him to come in and have the immediate impact Marner did. Never mind that his upside is lower, he's also not coming onto a team with six top-6 spots available. A Marner a few years short of his prime still gets 67 points. A Cowan a few years short of his, is probably having a Connor Brown-like impact for a couple years. I'm not sure we can really count on him being the "Robin" for Willy or Auston, he's very much of a different generation and by the time he's peaking they're well past theirs, or they've moved on.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Perhaps the team doesn't feel he alone is the problem and after finally winning a Division aren't ready to move on from the guy who led the Team in scoring by 20 points and plays in all situations.

It doesn't sound like you want him to stay at any cost but if you look at it objectively you can see why the Team wouldn't be so quick to just let him walk.

$14M!!!!

All game 5, 6 and 7 playoff stats (2019-2024):

• Nylander 16 GP | 6 G | 7 A | 13 PTS
• Matthews 14 GP | 6 G | 4 A | 11 PTS
• Tavares 13 GP | 5 G | 5 A | 10 PTS
• Marner 16 GP | 0 G | 5 A | 5 PTS

 

[Gabriel426]

Again it’s not Marner’s fault Rantanen decided to take less than Market value. Rantanen would have been paid more than 12 on the open market, anyone denying that is just being delusional. Rantanen found a spot he likes, got some front loaded bonuses and copped because he wasn’t looking to be on his fourth team in less than 6 months. So he chose security.

You could argue that maybe Marner should also consider factors and take 12 as well or less than market value for Toronto. But just because Rantanen chose to, doesn’t mean Marner has to or Toronto is even pushing him to do so. I think Toronto is more than comfortable paying Marner more than Rantanen.

Not sure would teams really would pay 12mil or more for Rantanen at the time he was traded and TDL. Pretty sure Avs didn’t or else he would be playing for the Avs.

Fast forward to now, think all 32 teams are more willing to pay Rantanen 12mil than MM. Call it recency bias or playoffs productions.

I mentioned it earlier in this thread, only 5 players had gone over 12mil, McD, Mack, AM, Drai and Rantanen. Of which three of them actually won Hart, Rocket or Art Ross before signing the 12mil plus deal. While Mack and Rantanen both led their team to a Cup. Mack also won the Hart in the first year of his 12mil plus contract while Rantanen is just killing it in the playoffs.

Is MM in that elite company? Not really, if anything, I would even state AM should not even be in that elite company due to his injuries and plays in playoffs.

I do think a GM out there will pay 12mil for MM in the summer just hope that’s not Tre esp if the Leafs is out in the second round.

 

[Gabriel426]

$14M!!!!

All game 5, 6 and 7 playoff stats (2019-2024):

• Nylander 16 GP | 6 G | 7 A | 13 PTS
• Matthews 14 GP | 6 G | 4 A | 11 PTS
• Tavares 13 GP | 5 G | 5 A | 10 PTS
• Marner 16 GP | 0 G | 5 A | 5 PTS

But he is a playmaker and bring Selke level defence that some even claimed to be better than Barkov, lol.

All I know is that if Ferraro mentioned MM being either injured or disinterested in any of the remaining games and MM just flat out played like crap. I just don’t see why Leafs want him back.

 

[arso40]

The same targets about 20 teams in the league will have - the overpays will be insane.

Unless we’re a desired location your right

 

[Gary Nylund]

You don’t have to apologize, you want the team to win. Also Marner isn’t one that should be free from criticism, I think all players deserve to be called out. My only issue is Marner gets it at an insane clip compared to anyone else on the team and that’s what I find to be a little wacky and unfair. Like Matthews hasn’t scored a goal in the second round as a leaf and people are still bitching about Marner, it doesn’t make sense to me!

It's probably because of the last contract circus, his dad, and just his personality in general (seems whiny, constantly says the wrong things to the media). And when he says things like "we only care about the people in the room" he's implying he doesn't care about the fans so whaddya expect?

Matthews is also getting a lot of heat, but it seems obvious that he's injured so that's probably why he's not getting as much heat as Marner.

Love him or hate him, he has made goal scoring contributions to help the team win games against Florida in both 2023 and this year. 2023 he scored in a 2-1 win in game 4 against Florida (5 v 5 goal too)

I'm not impressed at all. He played maybe his worst game ever in game 3, then we're down 3-0, the season is as good as over, and he finally wakes up. Not ... impressed.

I don’t subscribe to Marner will leave cause of fans. Marner will leave cause he doesn’t believe he can win here, more money or just wants a different situation for himself/family ect. I’m sure the fans maybe play a little part, but maybe not as much as some have been pushing it.

You don't know that he's leaving, neither does anyone else here. If he does leave though, I agree it won't be because of the fans, that IMHO is one of the dumber narratives being sold in these parts lately.

Even if they win you could make the argument that would be a good time to reset and let Marner walk. So there’s lots of pieces to this puzzle. I’m hoping the get it done this year too

We're all hoping. GLG!!

 

[ruaware41]

What's your point?

I already stated it, it's good.

Pretty sure his dad was involved the first go around and I’ve yet to see someone who’s viewed as a nylander fan act anywhere close to a die hard Mitch fan that’s Ludacris nylander sitting out for pasta money a year later changes his actual percentage of the cap doesn’t it I’m pretty sure he got forsberg money or something regardless sitting out cost him from a performance stand point but the jump from his salary to everyone else’s was crazy

Yea he very clearly was. Both guys have some* fans that are way over the top and seem more interested in the players than the team. I don't even think either of them are that bad but most people will not stand up to an overbearing father figure trying to live vicariously through his son in that situation. Michael Nylander had a pretty bad reputation around the league it seems.

Interesting rant about my trying to offer a little perspective.

He didn't sit out all year, and 8 years ago was the only time we've really heard from Michael, except for a few posters regularly claiming back then that Willy would take short term deals and leave as soon as possible, a la his dad.

his dad was very clearly involved though in the contract situation. There's a lot of supporting media coverage for this if you want to dig through it, probably just as much as there is for Paul Marner being involved in Marner's career. I highly doubt a 22 year old Nylander wanted to risk missing a whole season of hockey because he was getting 6 million instead of 6.9 million. He set the record for the longest holdout in the cap era. I don't blame either Marner or Nylander for how they handled the contract situations and assume overbearing/narcissistic fathers more so for several reasons anyway but if we're calling a spade a spade, the precedent was set by William/his team in all of this to never negotiate, never bend, and never sacrifice a little in contract for the team.

 

[arso40]

I already stated it, it's good.

Yea he very clearly was. Both guys have fanbases that are way over the top and seem more interested in the players than the team. I don't even think either of them are that bad but most people will not stand up to an overbearing father figure trying to live vicariously through his son in that situation. Michael Nylander had a pretty bad reputation around the league it seems.

his dad was very clearly involved though in the contract situation. There's a lot of supporting media coverage for this if you want to dig through it, probably just as much as there is for Paul Marner being involved in Marner's career. I highly doubt a 22 year old Nylander wanted to risk missing a whole season of hockey because he was getting 6 million instead of 6.9 million. He set the record for the longest holdout in the cap era. I don't blame either Marner or Nylander for how they handled the contract situations and assume overbearing/narcissistic fathers more so for several reasons anyway but if we're calling a spade a spade, the precedent was set by William/his team in all of this to never negotiate, never bend, and never sacrifice a little in contract for the team.

The part I don’t agree with is Willy called dubas and made the deal meaning he came down from his number it wasn’t the other way around like it seemed to be for everyone else

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Literally nothing matters other than the next 2-3 games. Score 1-2 goals and he's a hero

 

[Mess]

But he is a playmaker and bring Selke level defence that some even claimed to be better than Barkov, lol.

All I know is that if Ferraro mentioned MM being either injured or disinterested in any of the remaining games and MM just flat out played like crap. I just don’t see why Leafs want him back.

I'd personally be fully comfortable letting Marner walk then pay him his extortionary rate he seeks and use his current $10.9 mil free space recapture to lock up Matty Knies long-term..

Knies is turning into a playoff warrior and I'd rather lock him up to 8 year deal (4 X RFA & 4 X UFA years)

ie 8 years at $8.5 mil - $9 mil.

Re-signing Marner and then losing Knies to an Offersheet is not something I could stomach.

 

[tuckerintensity]

And when he says things like "we only care about the people in the room" he's implying he doesn't care about the fans so whaddya expect?

This bullkaka is hilarious. Not that he said it, I hope he meant it, actually. That anyone thinks this is a slight against the fans. Is this a real thing? It was obvious what he was talking about and it's not hating on fans. That's funny stuff though.

 

[Mess]

Both Draisatil and Rantanen are both top 5 in goals and points in playoff scoring past 9 years combined.,

However if you ignore how poor Marner is in comparison via playoff stats even at regular season points Marner finishes behind LD and MR.

Contracts Status:

Season 2024-25
================
Draisaitl @ $8.5 mil AAV
Rantanen @ $9.5 mil AAV
Marner @ 10.9 mil AAV.

Due to a Clueless Dubas the Leafs are already been screwed by massive over-payment in comparison to return on investment production come playoff time.

Season 2025-26
=====================
Draisatl : 8 years @ $14.0 mil AAV
Rantanen : 8 years @ $12.0 mil AAV
Marner : ???? (Should be less that $12 mil)

I see no reason why Treliving has to double down on stupidity of past over-payment to retain Marner, Where previously Marner had the highest $$$ salary on past contract all expiring at end of 2024-25, where now he should have the lowest of the 3 players here in comparison when all contracts begin for the 2025-26 season at new rates.

Marner does not outproduce Leon & Mikko regular season nor playoffs so WHY would his contract need to be HIGHER?

 

[ruaware41]

The part I don’t agree with is Willy called dubas and made the deal meaning he came down from his number it wasn’t the other way around like it seemed to be for everyone else

that's a fair point. In the end I think he just didn't want to miss a whole season of hockey but I guess he or probably more so his father tried to the very last hour. I don't really blame these players for most of it. Stockholm syndrome is a real thing and is very common among kids who's parents try to vicariously live through them to achieve their own dream, which is especially common among hockey parents who push their kids to succeed at such a high level.

Just watch this video about Mitch and his dad:

Makes me kinda sad watching it. It takes a lot of healing for someone to deal with it and the 1st step is to realize they may just be used to a dynamic which isn't healthy and most people probably don't realize it. Maybe unrelated but is it really a surprise Marner struggles in high pressure situations. Sorry for the ot

 

[ACC1224]

that's a fair point. In the end I think he just didn't want to miss a whole season of hockey but I guess he or probably more so his father tried to the very last hour. I don't really blame these players for most of it. Stockholm syndrome is a real thing and is very common among kids who's parents try to vicariously live through them to achieve their own dream, which is especially common among hockey parents who push their kids to succeed at such a high level.

Just watch this video about Mitch and his dad:

Makes me kinda sad watching it. It takes a lot of healing for someone to deal with it and the 1st step is to realize they may just be used to a dynamic which isn't healthy and most people probably don't realize it. Maybe unrelated but is it really a surprise Marner struggles in high pressure situations. Sorry for the ot

His dad hasn't been involved in the hockey stuff for a long time now. His interference wasn't doing anyone any good.

 

[Antropovsky]

I've also said this same thing too.

Mitch wants to bridge for 2-3 years, not go big now. He's made it blatantly and abundantly clear that his #1 goal is to make as much money as possible. That doesn't happen if you sign 8 years right now.

Its the only thing that makes sense. Not signing over $500, 000 per year makes no sense. We all know he wants to be in Toronto, a few hundred thousand a year isnt worth the risk of Toronto suddenly changing their mind over another bad playoffs.

However 50+ million makes alot of sense.

Long term deal:
8 year contract @12 million per year ----> 96 million
Marner is 36 years old at end of deal.
‐--------------------------------------‐-----------
Bridge deal:
Three year deal @12 million ---> 36 million
+
eight year deal @14.5 ----->116 million
=
152 million total

Marner is a UFA at age 39
--------------------------------------------------
Difference = 56 million dollars

It also, guarantees him to be paid until 39 years old, where once he slows down or just plain doesnt want to play (probably gets paid majority of his money up front) he can then just sit on LTIR or maybe even get bought out and join front office.

If he signs for 8 years now. Hes a UFA at 36. Most players careers dont last this long and he could be playing for league minimum like Spezza and others if he wants to continue to play. Lets face it, Marner is never gonna play hockey for minimum pay. He doesnt like hockey enough.

 

[KAWAIlllI]

I already stated it, it's good.

Yea he very clearly was. Both guys have some* fans that are way over the top and seem more interested in the players than the team. I don't even think either of them are that bad but most people will not stand up to an overbearing father figure trying to live vicariously through his son in that situation. Michael Nylander had a pretty bad reputation around the league it seems.

his dad was very clearly involved though in the contract situation. There's a lot of supporting media coverage for this if you want to dig through it, probably just as much as there is for Paul Marner being involved in Marner's career. I highly doubt a 22 year old Nylander wanted to risk missing a whole season of hockey because he was getting 6 million instead of 6.9 million. He set the record for the longest holdout in the cap era. I don't blame either Marner or Nylander for how they handled the contract situations and assume overbearing/narcissistic fathers more so for several reasons anyway but if we're calling a spade a spade, the precedent was set by William/his team in all of this to never negotiate, never bend, and never sacrifice a little in contract for the team.

Real big surprise that CAPS LOCK likes this message full with guessing and slashing of Willy. Very big surprise

 

[notDatsyuk]

Again it’s not Marner’s fault Rantanen decided to take less than Market value. Rantanen would have been paid more than 12 on the open market, anyone denying that is just being delusional. Rantanen found a spot he likes, got some front loaded bonuses and copped because he wasn’t looking to be on his fourth team in less than 6 months. So he chose security.

You could argue that maybe Marner should also consider factors and take 12 as well or less than market value for Toronto. But just because Rantanen chose to, doesn’t mean Marner has to or Toronto is even pushing him to do so. I think Toronto is more than comfortable paying Marner more than Rantanen.

Or maybe he understands market value better than a rookie GM and a few fans do.

And even if he was worth 13 and took 12, that still makes the lesser Marner worth maybe 12 at absolute max, and preferably elsewhere.

 

[Racer88]

It's honestly weird to see so much talk about this now. Maybe he wins the Conn Smythe, maybe he flames out, why not just wait a bit. Considering how much worse he's been in the playoffs vs regular season over his career, every playoff game counts and we still have at least 2 more to play. GLG!!

Yup

 

[Racer88]

Why?

Because we want to win………I think

 

[Racer88]

Tavares has a limited no trade. The islanders could have moved him, but he asked the islanders not to trade him and also made that request publicly to the media.

Ouch that is a pretty low blow