Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[Legion34]

I think it Dubas and the Pens, or I can see the Islanders getting their Karma moment

It could be anyone
Why would he go to a rebuild where they have no goalie.
Aging D.
Malkin is 38 and Crosby is 37 they have nothing

The isles are not a playoff team. And have no Talent.

Who knows where he goes but those are bold choices. Let’s see

 

[Donnie740]

There was no outrage because he came at no cost to the club. How much is that worth? We didn’t have to give up a single player or a single draft pick. He was a 1st overall pick. Try and buy a 1st overall pick (if it was allowed) how much would that cost? Easily 10 million.

Toronto won’t have to give up a single player or a single draft pick when they re-sign Marner.

Incidentally, 13.84% of the cap will be $13.2M. For a player who’s superior to what Tavares was.

 

[Confucius]

Toronto won’t have to give up a single player or a single draft pick when they re-sign Marner.

Incidentally, 13.84% of the cap will be $13.2M. For a player who’s superior to what Tavares was.

Well many appear willing to pay that, I wouldn’t but it is what it is. As far as being a better player, sure Mitch is a better player now but he still can’t score as much as a “washed up JT” but yep he gets more assists. At the time we got JT, I think JT was considered better.

 

[Donnie740]

I suspect he ends up in Carolina as a UFA

Let’s try to think it through logically, my friend.

A month ago. Marner had an opportunity to go to Carolina and he declined. That means he said NO to Carolina.

In what galaxy would Marner suddenly want to go to Carolina less than four months later?

There’s a much better chance of Marner signing with a team in the KHL than there is of him signing with Carolina.

 

[Racer88]

When my team plays, I'm always cheering them on. When they play well, it makes me happy and I give them credit and when they play poorly and disappoint, I'm not happy and I have no problem criticizing them. That goes for every single player, and the team as a whole, it seems completely natural to me and I can't imagine doing it any other way. Why some people get so upset and throw around the "hater" label when their favorite player gets some criticism I will never understand.

Yup. People throw the “hater” term around because they don’t know what else to say

 

[Legion34]

He'll be 28 in the summer - he won't want a 3-4 year deal, but a 7 year deal.

Given he won't be getting the extra year from Toronto, that pushes his AAV expectations to $14m.

The Hurricanes have been after a superstar for a while now. They thought they were doing the cheeky offer-sheet thing and potentially getting a high potential one in Kotkaniemi, before that flopped.

They went hard after Guentzel, and nearly had him resigned, last summer. They were all over the Canucks on Pettersson and JT Miller earlier this year. They made a bold move on Rantanen and tried to get an extension done.

They are big game hunting. Marner fits that roster's age profile too. It seems like too obvious a fit for me.

Except.

He literally turned down a trade there.
He loses the 8th year.

I’m honestly asking.
You think he is going to
refuse a trade there and sign for 8 years
Only to risk getting injured. Risk a bad playoff risk other competition (rantanen wasn’t signed)

To sign there in the summer for 1 less year? So like 13 million. Less?

Marners plan was to refuse all trades including the team he wants to sign with to sign as a ufa at the cost of 13 million?

 

[Confucius]

It could be anyone
Why would he go to a rebuild where they have no goalie.
Aging D.
Malkin is 38 and Crosby is 37 they have nothing

The isles are not a playoff team. And have no Talent.

Who knows where he goes but those are bold choices. Let’s see

It’s just that I think they are the 2 teams that would overpay and give him dollars rumors say he wants.

 

[Donnie740]

At the time we got JT, I think JT was considered better.

Not even remotely close, my friend.

Tavares had played nine years and had eclipsed 80 points THREE (3) times. Never more than 86 points. Never sniffed 100 points.

Marner has played nine years and has broken 90 points FOUR (4) times, including this years hundo point season.

Let’s remember that Toronto gave Tavares 13.84% of the salary cap to be the SECOND line centre. Not the first line centre.

Whereas there’s no question that Marner will be Toronto’s number one winger for the foreseeable future.

 

[Evilhomer]

At some point, both sides will meet in the middle on their demands and he will resign with the Leafs. Maybe that doesn't happen until June 28 or 29, but it will happen.

 

[arso40]

No, he didn't. He told Marner that Carolina wanted to trade for him. It was only being discussed as a last resort to minimize the downgrade if Marner had decided on leaving. The preference is and was always re-signing him.

He asked marner to wave his no move he declined

 

[Leaf Fans]

The irony doesn’t get any better than that.

Ryan Graves - - $4.5 AAV for six years
Tristan Jarry - - $5.375 for five years
Erik Karlsson - - $11.5 for four years

Not for his own team

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not even remotely close, my friend.

Tavares had played nine years and had eclipsed 80 points THREE (3) times. Never more than 86 points. Never sniffed 100 points.

Marner has played nine years and has broken 90 points FOUR (4) times, including this years hundo point season.

Let’s remember that Toronto gave Tavares 13.84% of the salary cap to be the SECOND line centre. Not the first line centre.

Whereas there’s no question that Marner will be Toronto’s number one winger for the foreseeable future.

There's more to player assessment than sorting by points. You might not be aware of this but JT was a top 5 player in the league for a few years there, he's been a Hart trophy finalist more than once, this is a level than Marner hasn't even come close to.

At some point, both sides will meet in the middle on their demands and he will resign with the Leafs. Maybe that doesn't happen until June 28 or 29, but it will happen.

I also think this is the most likely scenario. I predict a number between 12.5 and 13 million, term will probably be something like 4 years which I think is good for both sides.

 

[arso40]

To me LA makes the most sense.
They have tons of space. Need a scoring winger.

Only question is their C depth after kopitar. Although you could say the same about Tavares

I think they’re pretty good down the middle but the do need a real right winger

 

[Donnie740]

At some point, both sides will meet in the middle on their demands and he will resign with the Leafs. Maybe that doesn't happen until June 28 or 29, but it will happen.

Can’t wait!

And especially can’t wait to rub all the doubters faces in it.

 

[arso40]

Not even remotely close, my friend.

Tavares had played nine years and had eclipsed 80 points THREE (3) times. Never more than 86 points. Never sniffed 100 points.

Marner has played nine years and has broken 90 points FOUR (4) times, including this years hundo point season.

Let’s remember that Toronto gave Tavares 13.84% of the salary cap to be the SECOND line centre. Not the first line centre.

Whereas there’s no question that Marner will be Toronto’s number one winger for the foreseeable future.

Tavares was number 1 center the first in-fact a better player than marner too you can’t be looking at points to make your point lol marners Break out year was Tavares first year signing @Antropovsky responded to this somewhere with the jump in marners points but I think jt had like a point a game like he always did

 

[Dekes For Days]

He asked marner to wave his no move

...If he had decided to leave, so they could get the next best option with term. Otherwise, their priority was keeping him.

 

[Confucius]

Not even remotely close, my friend.

Tavares had played nine years and had eclipsed 80 points THREE (3) times. Never more than 86 points. Never sniffed 100 points.

Marner has played nine years and has broken 90 points FOUR (4) times, including this years hundo point season.

Let’s remember that Toronto gave Tavares 13.84% of the salary cap to be the SECOND line centre. Not the first line centre.

Whereas there’s no question that Marner will be Toronto’s number one winger for the foreseeable future.

I did say Mitch is the better player now, I also said I believe JT was the better player when we signed him.
When we signed JT, Mitch had played 2 seasons attaining 69 and 61 points. So at the time JT was the better player. We gave him 11. The following season Mitch also got 11 because of his 94 point year. So Mitch cost us 11 plus the 4th overall pick.

 

[LeafEgo]

Not even remotely close, my friend.

Tavares had played nine years and had eclipsed 80 points THREE (3) times. Never more than 86 points. Never sniffed 100 points.

Marner has played nine years and has broken 90 points FOUR (4) times, including this years hundo point season.

Let’s remember that Toronto gave Tavares 13.84% of the salary cap to be the SECOND line centre. Not the first line centre.

Whereas there’s no question that Marner will be Toronto’s number one winger for the foreseeable future.

JT was a top 1C (prodigee 1OA) on the free market, which every team needs to win and not every team has one - he had a blank check.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

Ya. Apples and f'n orangutans with Mitch and JT, so dead the comparison.

Bottom line - Mitch is going for between 12.5 and 13.5 and there's nothing any of us can do about it. Let's just enjoy round 1 and hope he's a big part of it.....

...in a good way, this time!

 

[thewave]

I did say Mitch is the better player now, I also said I believe JT was the better player when we signed him.
When we signed JT, Mitch had played 2 seasons attaining 69 and 61 points. So at the time JT was the better player. We gave him 11. The following season Mitch also got 11 because of his 94 point year. So Mitch cost us 11 plus the 4th overall pick.

That 11m was also given at the time with the expectation that Marner would get even better. The 94 PTS alone would not have been enough to move the needle that far for an RFA player.

They likely were thinking this was going to be a 120pts guy or more. The Gretzky talk was kicking around then too. Problem, he plateaued at about 94-99pts. He could not improve.

 

[tuckerintensity]

It's not just one former Leaf, there are many people who think he'll stay. The team looks so good right now, if they win two rounds this city will go berserk and the atmosphere will be such that Marner won't even consider leaving. That of course is JMHO.

I tend to agree with this, but lots of talking heads are thinking he's going (and I wouldn't blame him, really), I just think this is where he wants to be and he's trying to get top dollar (and I don't blame him for that even if I want him to take a discount).

I'm getting sucked in again, starting to believe in this team again. Then again, it's not the same team any more is it? Carlo has really solidified the defence, we have a new coach and I say this tongue in cheek but who knows, we may even have a new and improved version of Marner, now that would be HUGE!

Honestly, same. I feel like I'm more protected about my excitement, but this team feels different even though the core is very much the same. I don't know, I probably felt this way after beating Tampa, like that was the thing that would get them over, but finishing first, drawing not Tampa, Florida, or Boston in the first round, they actually sound a little bit different in the way they talk. I can't wait to be down 3-1 to Ottawa and be able to tell myself they fooled me again.

 

[mclaren55]

You cut out Eichel's rookie season lol.

It's actually...
Year 1: Marner 0.79 > Eichel 0.69
Year 2: Eichel 0.93 > Marner 0.84
Year 3: Marner 1.15 > Eichel 0.96
Year 4: Marner 1.14 > Eichel 1.06
Year 5: Marner 1.22 > Eichel 1.15
Year 6: Marner 1.35 > Eichel 0.86
Year 7: Marner 1.24 > Eichel 0.74
Year 8: Marner 1.23 > Eichel 0.99
Year 9: Marner 1.25 > Eichel 1.08
Year 10: Marner ??? > Eichel 1.22

So Marner had the better P/GP in 8 out of each of their first 9 years.

And in that second year, Marner was actually better too. He produced better at 5v5 (2.03 > 1.76) and on the PP (9.00 > 7.91). He just had less opportunity handed to him in his early career.

Even this year is a bit of a mirage, driven by Eichel's secondary assist rate randomly exploding. Before this year, it averaged 26% of his point total. This year, secondary assists account for 42% of his point total, and is the entire cause of his higher producing season.

Throughout their entire careers...

P/GP
Marner: 1.13
Eichel: 0.99

5v5 P/60
Marner: 2.65
Eichel: 2.07

PP P/60
Marner: 7.17
Eichel: 6.09

While Marner has also brought elite defense and PKing.

And that initial post was actually about their respective pre-signing performances, where Marner blew Eichel out of the water.

P/GP
Marner: 0.93
Eichel: 0.80

5v5 P/60
Marner: 2.38
Eichel: 1.60

PP P/60
Marner: 7.19
Eichel: 6.30

Difference in linemates has a significant impact on production. Comparing what Eichel had to work with in Buffalo vs. Marner in Toronto is disingenuous.

I won't argue about Marners obvious exceptional defensive play, he is superior to Eichel in that regard.

Maybe Eichel has had more secondary assists due to better linemates and players able to finish the play without him being the primary driver? Just a thought, I have no idea.

Eichel with a centre like JT or Matthews isn't the same as Eichel playing with linemates like Skinner, Foligno (Marcus), and Olofsson.

 

[thewave]

Difference in linemates has a significant impact on production. Comparing what Eichel had to work with in Buffalo vs. Marner in Toronto is disingenuous.

I won't argue about Marners obvious exceptional defensive play, he is superior to Eichel in that regard.

Maybe Eichel has had more secondary assists due to better linemates and players able to finish the play without him being the primary driver? Just a thought, I have no idea.

Eichel with a centre like JT or Matthews isn't the same as Eichel playing with linemates like Skinner, Foligno (Marcus), and Olofsson.

Eichel is a more impactful player.

Marner defensively comes with a caveat. He throws the puck away a lot doing high risk aesthetically pleasing passes or when put under pressure.

 

[mclaren55]

Eichel is a more impactful player.

Marner defensively comes with a caveat. He throws the puck away a lot doing high risk aesthetically pleasing passes or when put under pressure.

Going to disagree, I take Marner over Eichel defensively speaking. I don't think he makes that many "high risk aesthetically pleasing" passes. I think he is a playmaker, and playmakers typically have an exaggerated amount of giveaways because they are trying to make plays. He also has a great stick and can read plays before they happen, leading to takeaways/blocked passes. You can shit on Marner for some things, his defensive play isn't one of them.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I tend to agree with this, but lots of talking heads are thinking he's going (and I wouldn't blame him, really), I just think this is where he wants to be and he's trying to get top dollar (and I don't blame him for that even if I want him to take a discount).

He gets about 2M a year here in endorsements and if we have some playoff success, that number should go way up. And for a kid who grew up here, being a legend in this town is priceless and if he leaves, he gives up a chance at all that.

Honestly, same. I feel like I'm more protected about my excitement, but this team feels different even though the core is very much the same. I don't know, I probably felt this way after beating Tampa, like that was the thing that would get them over, but finishing first, drawing not Tampa, Florida, or Boston in the first round, they actually sound a little bit different in the way they talk. I can't wait to be down 3-1 to Ottawa and be able to tell myself they fooled me again.

I just can't help but be impressed with the way they're playing lately, especially Stolarz. Winning the division is also really huge, that can't be overstated IMO and I don't listen to them talk much, but if there's positives to be taken from that, I'll take it!