Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[ACC1224]

That depends on salary, isn't that what we've been talking about?

We know Nylanders salary?

 

[Superstar]

Getting 13m isn't taking the whole increase. It's taking his percentage of the increase.
For example, if the cap was increasing from 100m to 110m, a player signing for 15% would get 1.5m of that 10m increase, and the team benefits from the other 8.5m.

Marner was never overpaid, and he's not a "dud" in the playoffs by any measure, advanced or not. Even by just production, he's been the best on the team, and is one of the better playoff producers in the league. Not equalling the production of some of the highest playoff producers in NHL history for very obvious reasons that you choose to ignore does not make one a dud.

While the gap is not as big as it once was, Marner is still easily the better player. There's more to a player than goalscoring. Paying Marner 12m would be paying Marner less than Nylander. 13m, and even higher, is in no way ridiculous, and there is zero reason to believe that Marner is going to "fall off a cliff" anytime remotely soon. In fact, he's likely to last longer than most players, considering how he generates his impact. Nylander is probably the biggest worry in that regard, with how he relies on speed.

The entire increase as it relates to that player's percentage and wanting to keep that fixed, because obviously, the player is not getting the flat dollar increase of the cap. $12 mil is more than what Willy got...you could use percentage of the cap or whatever to say Marner is getting paid less at $12 mil, but that's just a tactic to squeeze more out of the team.

We'll disagree, Marner was overpaid. His contract was quite polarizing in terms of opinion within the fanbase.

Willy has quietly put together 3 straight seasons of 40 plus goals, and 5 away from 50 this season...they have their strengths, but they are comparable...it's not Kucherov vs Nylander.

Marner has been a dud in the playoffs...though he's not the only one...we've all watched the games...one playoff series win in nearly a decade.

The team is getting older...most players start going downhill after they turn 30...their prime is in their mid to late 20's.

 

[notDatsyuk]

1- I couldn't take Matthews who scored at a rate of 1,44 and Tavares would not had the same impact than Nylander but if you really want it... let's use it with Tavares, i don't have any problem with it. He's scoring at a rate of 0,98/60 vs Mcmann at 1,11 of robertson at 1,15... That still doesn't make Mcmann /Robertson better goal scorer or JT worst...That's telling the same exact thing i was telling but if that can make you happy, just use That one with JT


2-I only dislike one part of Nylander and it's his work ethic. When he's taking shift/ game off... That's it... Outside this part i really like the player the same way i liked Kessel because for me they are pretty similar type of player. When he's active and implicated, he's a hell of a player and probably best leafs player.. when he's just surfing on the ice watching his teammate doing everything, he pretty frustating to watch

1 - moving the posts again? Nobody mentioned either Matthews or Tavares.

2 - the scary part is that he produces as well even "taking shift/game off" (which both Matthews and Marner do too - JT may be the only one who doesn't), and playing with lesser players.

But this is a Marner thread, so let's stop making it about your favourite whipping boy.

 

[HockeyVirus]

The leafs are losers in both situations IMO. The leafs are going to come out looking like fools either way. You’re going to have a section pissed off they let this guy with his talent walk for free, you going to have a section pissed off that you resigned him.

If they don’t go deep in the playoffs, he walks and they don’t do anything of significance in UFA. All hell will break lose, the triple whammy would be McDavid signing an extension on July 1st. I think at that point people would just lose their minds.

I don’t see a scenario where the leafs look good unless a) they win the cup, 2) Marner has a great playoffs and is resigned at a reasonable cap hit

This is a sunk cost fallacy.

It is completely fair and accurate to say Shanahan failed by not moving Marner when he had the chance and the warning signs were clear.

That doesn't mean we overpay him massively now and make another mistake.

 

[Superstar]

We know Nylanders salary?

Nylander at his current salary is more palatable than Nylander at $13 mil, even if he's aging, don't you think?

 

[ACC1224]

Nylander at his current salary is more palatable than Nylander at $13 mil, even if he's aging, don't you think?

No, not at all.

 

[hamzarocks]

This is a sunk cost fallacy.

It is completely fair and accurate to say Shanahan failed by not moving Marner when he had the chance and the warning signs were clear.

That doesn't mean we overpay him massively now and make another mistake.

The problem is building through UFAs usually doesnt work

You let marner walk and bring some expensive well known players in late 20s or early 30s, that has major blowup in your face risk

You pay marner 13-14M even if he plays bad in this uear playoffs and we are out R1 or early R2 then your giving up on chance of improvimg the team and going for a WSH 2018 1 time cup scenerio.

The issue for us is management will be aiming to "contend" either with 16 or without. Ownership/management has not shown themselves to be shrewed enougj to pull of a 1/2 year retool where we may miss the playoffs but find gems who break onto the team and be good supporting pieces for a number of years to come

We likely will give Marner 13-14M just due to familiarty and known output with him/this core.

 

[HockeyVirus]

The problem is building through UFAs usually doesnt work

You let marner walk and bring some expensive well known players in late 20s or early 30s, that has major blowup in your face risk

You pay marner 13-14M even if he plays bad in this uear playoffs and we are out R1 or early R2 then your giving up on chance of improvimg the team and going for a WSH 2018 1 time cup scenerio.

The issue for us is management will be aiming to "contend" either with 16 or without. Ownership/management has not shown themselves to be shrewed enougj to pull of a 1/2 year retool where we may miss the playoffs but find gems who break onto the team and be good supporting pieces for a number of years to come

We likely will give Marner 13-14M just due to familiarty and known output with him/this core.

I agree with you but after 10 years overpaying these core guys doesn't work either. Hypothetically if you replace Marner with Sam Bennett and Boeser for roughly the same cap are the Leafs better, worse, or roughly the same? Probably slightly worse defensively even offensively.

 

[hamzarocks]

I agree with you but after 10 years overpaying these core guys doesn't work either. Hypothetically if you replace Marner with Sam Bennett and Boeser for roughly the same cap are the Leafs better, worse, or roughly the same? Probably slightly worse defensively even offensively.

I guess Im just expecting Bennett to get resigned and tbh hes a good player but we need to find a way to add a bennet in his mid 20s at 3-4M + Boesor + Marner type core piece to build a strong cup contender.


Boesor now has major injury risk which scares me. He also likely is staying in America unless a gross overpay of 10M+

I just feel MLSE does a simple summer this year

If leafs fall short in playoffs (R1 or R2 exit)

1. Shanahan fired and Treliving gets President of Hockey OPs + GM role

2. Marner + Tavares + Knies all are back at 27M (13M + 7 JT + 7 Knies)

3. Change and assistant coach or two.

4. Morgan Rielly trade (waives NMC at threat of buyout) which shows we have moved a core player out + changed coaches + updated management

If MLSE shows guts to make a major decision and shakw up the core + find strong complimentary talent to improve the team, I will be super surprised but happy none the less.

I would like to target Sabres players. A lot of young guys who are low AAV and could be able to step up into bigger roles for us

Quinn, Petereka, Rosen, Kulich, Rosek, Ostlund, Krebs are names I would target and see what the price tag on them is.

Sabres unfortunately have 3 PMD already and won't want Rielly otherwise he could be a fit there for good package.

Hoping we win atleast 2 rounds so that way the decisions become pretty easy for the leafs (extend the core guys and hope this playoffs is a taste of whats to come)

 

[ACC1224]

Stuff like this is why he's such a popular teammate.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The entire increase as it relates to that player's percentage and wanting to keep that fixed, because obviously, the player is not getting the flat dollar increase of the cap. $12 mil is more than what Willy got...you could use percentage of the cap or whatever to say Marner is getting paid less at $12 mil, but that's just a tactic to squeeze more out of the team.

No, it's just how contracts work in the NHL. You can't just randomly decide to change how things work because you don't want to pay Marner what he earned. Getting a small percentage of the cap increase is not getting the entire increase. 12m would put Marner's valuation below Nylander, and there is no justification for that.

We'll disagree, Marner was overpaid. His contract was quite polarizing in terms of opinion within the fanbase.

Objectively, he was not overpaid. His signing was consistent with post-ELC history, and he brought surplus value throughout his contract. His contract was polarizing because most of our fanbase chooses to be clueless when it comes to understanding contracts and the impact players bring, even when people explain it to them.

Willy has quietly put together 3 straight seasons of 40 plus goals, and 5 away from 50 this season...they have their strengths, but they are comparable.

Not only did Nylander not have all that when he signed, goals are only one small part of a player's impact. You can't cherry pick the one thing Nylander is better at and ignore all of the things Nylander is worse at to pretend that they are equal.

Marner has been a dud in the playoffs...though he's not the only one...we've all watched the games...one playoff series win in nearly a decade.

He has not been a dud, by any measure. Playoff series wins is a team stat, not individual.

The team is getting older...most players start going downhill after they turn 30...their prime is in their mid to late 20's.

Players do not fall off a cliff at 30. Most players don't meaningfully decline until their mid-30s, and that tends to get pushed even later when they are elite players, and when their impacts are less reliant on body-based attributes.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Let him walk and we’ll regret it.

 

[tuckerintensity]

I agree with you but after 10 years overpaying these core guys doesn't work either. Hypothetically if you replace Marner with Sam Bennett and Boeser for roughly the same cap are the Leafs better, worse, or roughly the same? Probably slightly worse defensively even offensively.

I'll be pretty surprised if Boeser and Bennett on the open market are the same as what Marner would make if we kept him. These guys could both see AAVs that start with 8 or more (I'm not saying that they are worth it, but that's what happens on the open market), but even if they were 7.5 each, Marner won't be near 15 or more to stay.

 

[Superstar]

No, it's just how contracts work in the NHL. You can't just randomly decide to change how things work because you don't want to pay Marner what he earned. Getting a small percentage of the cap increase is not getting the entire increase. 12m would put Marner's valuation below Nylander, and there is no justification for that.

Objectively, he was not overpaid. His signing was consistent with post-ELC history, and he brought surplus value throughout his contract. His contract was polarizing because most of our fanbase chooses to be clueless when it comes to understanding contracts and the impact players bring, even when people explain it to them.

Not only did Nylander not have all that when he signed, goals are only one small part of a player's impact. You can't cherry pick the one thing Nylander is better at and ignore all of the things Nylander is worse at to pretend that they are equal.

He has not been a dud, by any measure. Playoff series wins is a team stat, not individual.

Players do not fall off a cliff at 30. Most players don't meaningfully decline until their mid-30s, and that tends to get pushed even later when they are elite players, and when their impacts are less reliant on body-based attributes.

That's how some players and agents want it to work because it benefits them...he's not taking a hair cut at $12 mil...it's more than Willy and comparable to Rantanen.

He was overpaid at almost $11 on his contract while being an RFA, so was Matthews...Dubas bet on the cap going up, and lost....that was his way of trying to work around those overpayments.

I said Marner and Willy at this stage in their careers are comparable players...Marner is not head and shoulders better than Willy...and some will prefer Willy's scoring prowess at his salary.

Marner has been a dud in the playoffs...the eye tests and stats, playoff numbers are there in plain sight...you could deny all you want...we got almost a decade of it.

Marner is what he is, he ain't magically going to become better with age because he's already at the latter part of his prime...he'll still be a perimeter player in the playoffs who is afraid of contact.

 

[tuckerintensity]

Marner has been a dud in the playoffs...the eye tests and stats, playoff numbers are there in plain sight...you could deny all you want...we got almost a decade of it.

I think an eye test would be super fun, so over the last eight years, here are eight players (GP-G-A-P-P/G).

Player A: 67-21-28-59-0.88
Player B: 57-11-39-50-0.88
Player C: 55-23-25-48-0.87
Player D: 65-17-39-56-0.86
Player E: 71-24-37-61-0.86
Player F: 79-35-31-66-0.84
Player G: 75-27-35-62-0.83
Player H: 66-19-35-54-0.82

 

[Superstar]

I think an eye test would be super fun, so over the last eight years, here are eight players (GP-G-A-P-P/G).

Player A: 67-21-28-59-0.88
Player B: 57-11-39-50-0.88
Player C: 55-23-25-48-0.87
Player D: 65-17-39-56-0.86
Player E: 71-24-37-61-0.86
Player F: 79-35-31-66-0.84
Player G: 75-27-35-62-0.83
Player H: 66-19-35-54-0.82

How about you also list Rantanen and Draisaitl stats, lol...their contracts are closest to proximity to what Marner will signed for at season's end.

 

[1specter]

I think an eye test would be super fun, so over the last eight years, here are eight players (GP-G-A-P-P/G).

Player A: 67-21-28-59-0.88
Player B: 57-11-39-50-0.88
Player C: 55-23-25-48-0.87
Player D: 65-17-39-56-0.86
Player E: 71-24-37-61-0.86
Player F: 79-35-31-66-0.84
Player G: 75-27-35-62-0.83
Player H: 66-19-35-54-0.82

One thing definitely stands out, 11 goals in 57 games when you regularly score at a 30 goal pace during the season is pretty embarrassing.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's how some players and agents want it to work because it benefits them...he's not taking a hair cut at $12 mil...it's more than Willy and comparable to Rantanen.

No, that's how it works for every player, agent, and team. You're not changing that. 12m would be a pay cut, and a lower valuation than Nylander. There's no justification for that.

He was overpaid at almost $11 on his contract while being an RFA, so was Matthews...Dubas bet on the cap going up, and lost....that was his way of trying to work around those overpayments.

Neither Marner or Matthews were overpaid. You just refuse to acknowledge how good they were, especially relative to the history of post-ELC signees. All GMs sign players based on a rising cap. A GM can't just abandon contract precedent because a once in a century global pandemic might randomly show up one day.

I said Marner and Willy at this stage in their careers are comparable players...Marner is not head and shoulders better than Willy...and some will prefer Willy's scoring prowess at his salary.

They're not comparable though. Marner is better. He produces better, and is better at everything outside of production. You can have a personal preference for goals all you want, but having more of a goal skew doesn't make somebody better.

Marner has been a dud in the playoffs...the eye tests and stats, playoff numbers are there in plain sight...

He has not been a dud in the playoffs. The eye test does not say that. His basic stats do not say that. His advanced stats do not say that. And context only makes what he's done even more impressive.

Marner is what he is, he ain't magically going to become better with age because he's already at the latter part of his prime...he'll still be a perimeter player in the playoffs who is afraid of contact.

He has never been a perimeter player who is afraid of contact. He's likely not going to see massive advancements as a player at this age, but he's already one of the best players in the world, and there's no reason to think that's going to change anytime soon.

 

[Mess]

I think an eye test would be super fun, so over the last eight years, here are eight players (GP-G-A-P-P/G).

Player A: 67-21-28-59-0.88
Player B: 57-11-39-50-0.88
Player C: 55-23-25-48-0.87
Player D: 65-17-39-56-0.86
Player E: 71-24-37-61-0.86
Player F: 79-35-31-66-0.84
Player G: 75-27-35-62-0.83
Player H: 66-19-35-54-0.82

Give me player B .. I want the one that scores the least and wants/has the highest Salary/AAV.

 

[Superstar]

No, that's how it works for every player, agent, and team. You're not changing that. 12m would be a pay cut, and a lower valuation than Nylander. There's no justification for that.

Neither Marner or Matthews were overpaid. You just refuse to acknowledge how good they were, especially relative to the history of post-ELC signees. All GMs sign players based on a rising cap. A GM can't just abandon contract precedent because a once in a century global pandemic might randomly show up one day.

They're not comparable though. Marner is better. He produces better, and is better at everything outside of production. You can have a personal preference for goals all you want, but having more of a goal skew doesn't make somebody better.

He has not been a dud in the playoffs. The eye test does not say that. His basic stats do not say that. His advanced stats do not say that. And context only makes what he's done even more impressive.

He has never been a perimeter player who is afraid of contact. He's likely not going to see massive advancements as a player at this age, but he's already one of the best players in the world, and there's no reason to think that's going to change anytime soon.

We'll see what Marner gets.

Dubas literally broke convention with what he paid Matthews on his last contract while being a RFA...that was the sentiment around the league at the time...Dubas gave Matthews everything, so much so that Marner's agent was a bit peeved and demanded something similar.

We're going to disagree on some points, and I'm not going to rehash those.

I"m not saying Marner is not a great player, but at what cost? We're just going to have to wait and see how things play out.

 

[thewave]

I think an eye test would be super fun, so over the last eight years, here are eight players (GP-G-A-P-P/G).

Player A: 67-21-28-59-0.88
Player B: 57-11-39-50-0.88
Player C: 55-23-25-48-0.87
Player D: 65-17-39-56-0.86
Player E: 71-24-37-61-0.86
Player F: 79-35-31-66-0.84
Player G: 75-27-35-62-0.83
Player H: 66-19-35-54-0.82

G F E C are the best players on the list. Who did I select?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas literally broke convention with what he paid Matthews on his last contract while being a RFA...

No he didn't. The 5th best pre-signing performance in the cap era earned the 6th best post-ELC contract. That's not breaking convention.

 

[Superstar]

No he didn't. The 5th best pre-signing performance in the cap era earned the 6th best post-ELC contract. That's not breaking convention.

We're looking back on hindsight...something conventional would be what McDavid signed for...but when Matthews signed, based on what he had achieved until then, Dubas conceded everything.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We're looking back on hindsight...something conventional would be what McDavid signed for...but when Matthews signed, based on what he had achieved until then, Dubas conceded everything.

Based on what he had done prior to signing, Matthews earned the 5th biggest post-ELC contract. He got the 6th biggest. Marner earned the 6th biggest and got the 10th biggest. If anything, McDavid's contract was the unconventional one, with the 8 year term and big public discount.

 

[tuckerintensity]

How about you also list Rantanen and Draisaitl stats, lol...their contracts are closest to proximity to what Marner will signed for at season's end.

One thing definitely stands out, 11 goals in 57 games when you regularly score at a 30 goal pace during the season is pretty embarrassing.

Give me player B .. I want the one that scores the least and wants/has the highest Salary/AAV.

Exactly as expected, most people do not like the eye test because they either have to say someone isn't as bad as they thought or players often cited as the best are the same as the guy they don't like.

G F E C are the best players on the list. Who did I select?

Bergeron, Stamkos, Tkachuk, Matthews.

The fun part of this exercise is that these are the closest forwards to each other in terms of P/G (50 games or more) but only two are are described as playoff duds, five of them would be described as the opposite. If we looked at numbers post-2000, a few other names show up in this group (.88 to .82). They include playoff duds like Brad Marchand, Henrik Zetterberg, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Jarome Iginla, and Marty St. Louis.