Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Evilhomer]

Like last season, the best hope for the Leafs is that they win the division and get to play one of the less defensively sound teams in the first round. That is the best bet for these guys to produce some offense, and then you just hope and pray that they get some from momentum from it or the new coach comes up with an approach that better suits them. Better or worse, at this point it's hard to imagine that Marner won't start the season in Toronto.

 

[Hellcat]

Down is one thing, falling off a cliff is another. It's not even just the point totals, it's the way he becomes a non-factor. I don't think I'll even forget the way he played game 3 against Florida, he looked like a nervous kid who's in waaaaaaaaaay over his head playing in his first professional game. For one of the highest paid players in the world, that's simply unacceptable.

But forget the stats for a moment, are you happy with the way he played for us in our two most recent playoff series?

McDavid did the exact same thing but you for some reason dismissed that point... I wonder why?

 

[Notsince67]

Now that July 1 has passed have we heard that they've begun any contract discussions?
I imagine they will want to have things wrapped up one way or the other by camp.

Going to assume an offer has been made or will be made soon. If no announcement is made, I would guess that the decision from the Marner camp is to bet on the year.

I don't think we will know until its done.

 

[francis246]

Like last season, the best hope for the Leafs is that they win the division and get to play one of the less defensively sound teams in the first round. That is the best bet for these guys to produce some offense, and then you just hope and pray that they get some from momentum from it or the new coach comes up with an approach that better suits them. Better or worse, at this point it's hard to imagine that Marner won't start the season in Toronto.

Couldn’t agree more! Leafs need to either win the division or finish in a wild card spot. Would prefer a divisional win so we have home advantage. But it would be nice if they make it a priority this year.

 

[Antropovsky]

Brian Burke was on Rosie's podcast and said he thinks either Marner or Nylander need to go. He prefers Nylander leaving, but one of them should. Doesn't think it will be easy though. He said Tavares has earned his contract and shouldn't be touched.

I agree with him, with exception to Marner over Nylander. Though, I'm not thrilled with either of them at 11.5+ million.

Edit: He also mentioned the nmc and said "you really questioning the wisdom of all that now looking back". In other words Dubas your and idiot.

 

[Gary Nylund]

McDavid did the exact same thing but you for some reason dismissed that point... I wonder why?

LOL, you're still trying to cpmpare Marner to McDavid? Are you waiting for McDavid to sign his next contract so the you can argue Marner should get a bit more than McDavid on his deal?

Couldn’t agree more! Leafs need to either win the division or finish in a wild card spot. Would prefer a divisional win so we have home advantage. But it would be nice if they make it a priority this year.

Make it a priority how? You don't think they were trying to win as many games as they can in previous years?

 

[1specter]

McDavid did the exact same thing but you for some reason dismissed that point... I wonder why?

McDavid and Marner are the same age, and were drafted in the same draft. Marner joined the Leafs only one year after McDavid started playing. Marner has been on a better team for most of that time, especially between 2017-2021, and has been in the playoffs every single year, whereas the Oilers were very mismanaged for a number of years and weren't even a consistent playoff team until about 2021. Despite that, McDavid has only really had one poor showing in 2021 against the Jets, but has otherwise carried the Oilers with Draisaitl every other playoffs and set records that Marner can only dream of. McDavid had 8 playoff goals in 2023 alone (where both the Oilers and Leafs got eliminated in round 2), Marner has 11 CAREER playoff goals. Marner is not some kid who is in his first few years while McDavid is a seasoned veteran, they are the same age and have been in the league for roughly the same amount of time. McDavid figured it out, Marner didn't. McDavid has also played through some pretty major injuries such as PCL and abdominal tears.

This is a ridiculous comparison.

 

[ToneDog]

If buddy was making 8M this entire time I think my entire philosophy would be adjusted. I am obsessed with cap management and to be fair, you have to be. Seeing Guentzel and Reinhart signing for 8M and 9M deals, as playoff goal producers, is really sobering.

Nylander wouldn't have gotten 11.5M for 7 on the open market. We gave him 11.5Mx8

Marner will not get 12.5M on the open market. It doesn't make any sense. We probably can't trade the guy because the acquiring teams don't want his current cap hit. Nevermind adding to it!

Dubas botched this thing, and shame on Shanny for letting it carry on. Nylander, I love the guy, shows up in playoffs in big games. He shouldn't have gotten 11.5M. How did this happen? We have zero track record to be making these demands. We have cup winners making notably less per year

An equal trade isn't possible. A marner trade is a commitment to a new philosophy because the asset is distressed to put it lightly

Shanny's solution to not being able to win with 4 forwards making $40.176m, is to try with the same 4 forwards making $46.653m. Absolute brilliance.

 

[Gary Nylund]

McDavid and Marner are the same age, and were drafted in the same draft. Marner joined the Leafs only one year after McDavid started playing. Marner has been on a better team for most of that time, especially between 2017-2021, and has been in the playoffs every single year, whereas the Oilers were very mismanaged for a number of years and weren't even a consistent playoff team until about 2021. Despite that, McDavid has only really had one poor showing in 2021 against the Jets, but has otherwise carried the Oilers with Draisaitl every other playoffs and set records that Marner can only dream of. McDavid had 8 playoff goals in 2023 alone (where both the Oilers and Leafs got eliminated in round 2), Marner has 11 career playoff goals. Marner is not some kid who is in his first few years while McDavid is a seasoned veteran, they are the same age and have been in the league for roughly the same amount of time. McDavid figured it out, Marner didn't. McDavid has also played through some pretty major injuries such as PCL and abdominal tears.

This is a ridiculous comparison.

Well, good on you for taking the time to answer this guy, all I could do was to shake my head and laugh my ass off.

Ridiculous comparison indeed. Based on the last playoffs, it would make more sense to compare Marner to Domi and I'm not even sure he comes out of that one a winner.

 

[francis246]

LOL, you're still trying to cpmpare Marner to McDavid? Are you waiting for McDavid to sign his next contract so the you can argue Marner should get a bit more than McDavid on his deal?


Make it a priority how? You don't think they were trying to win as many games as they can in previous years?

By make it a priority I mean stop losing to teams below 500, we didn’t beat Ottawa all of last year, we lost to the coyotes and other garbage teams. We beat those teams like I know we can and we have a shot at winning the division.

 

[Notsince67]

If buddy was making 8M this entire time I think my entire philosophy would be adjusted. I am obsessed with cap management and to be fair, you have to be. Seeing Guentzel and Reinhart signing for 8M and 9M deals, as playoff goal producers, is really sobering.

Nylander wouldn't have gotten 11.5M for 7 on the open market. We gave him 11.5Mx8

Marner will not get 12.5M on the open market. It doesn't make any sense. We probably can't trade the guy because the acquiring teams don't want his current cap hit. Nevermind adding to it!

Dubas botched this thing, and shame on Shanny for letting it carry on. Nylander, I love the guy, shows up in playoffs in big games. He shouldn't have gotten 11.5M. How did this happen? We have zero track record to be making these demands. We have cup winners making notably less per year

An equal trade isn't possible. A marner trade is a commitment to a new philosophy because the asset is distressed to put it lightly

I'm betting he signs for 7 years max and probably in the 12.5MM range

 

[francis246]

If buddy was making 8M this entire time I think my entire philosophy would be adjusted. I am obsessed with cap management and to be fair, you have to be. Seeing Guentzel and Reinhart signing for 8M and 9M deals, as playoff goal producers, is really sobering.

Nylander wouldn't have gotten 11.5M for 7 on the open market. We gave him 11.5Mx8

Marner will not get 12.5M on the open market. It doesn't make any sense. We probably can't trade the guy because the acquiring teams don't want his current cap hit. Nevermind adding to it!

Dubas botched this thing, and shame on Shanny for letting it carry on. Nylander, I love the guy, shows up in playoffs in big games. He shouldn't have gotten 11.5M. How did this happen? We have zero track record to be making these demands. We have cup winners making notably less per year

An equal trade isn't possible. A marner trade is a commitment to a new philosophy because the asset is distressed to put it lightly

Being obsessed with cap management more than being actually just being a fan of hockey and your team is a sad result of an outdated system and is honestly why the NHL is about to be passed by MLS. Fans should not be obsessing over the cap, completely takes away from the product. They need to change to fluid cap system.

I myself am not obsessed with the cap as a fan (we have little control over it and really it’s not my issue to worry about, it’s Trelivings). But I can see if you are why you have no enjoyment in watching this team and that’s horrible.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm betting he signs for 7 years max and probably in the 12.5MM range

Sounds like this prediction is in the ballpark, we can only hope it's not us that's paying this choker top dollar until he's declining heavily at the age of 35.

 

[thewave]

Sounds like this prediction is in the ballpark, we can only hope it's not us that's paying this choker top dollar until he's declining heavily at the age of 35.

The way he is slowing down scares me. His speed is really already approaching suck level

 

[Notsince67]

Sounds like this prediction is in the ballpark, we can only hope it's not us that's paying this choker top dollar until he's declining heavily at the age of 35.

No player want to negotiate a new contract at 35 years old. The good ones have a few years left and are able to sign a multiyear contract at 34 with a team that will not be on the hook for cap if he retires. That drives the last contract into job security.

 

[thewave]

No player want to negotiate a new contract at 35 years old. The good ones have a few years left and are able to sign a multiyear contract at 34 with a team that will not be on the hook for cap if he retires. That drives the last contract into job security.

Agree with you. Thing is the way Marner is slowing I wouldn't bet on myself. I would go max term and money if I were him. Just hope we don't pay it.

 

[myleafs]

Ok, let me try to clarify. I wanted him moved in a deal that made us better. That would likely be a piece of two, a prospect or pick and cap space. I never saw us getting equal value back in just a player or two.

This didn't happen and I don't think it can happen now because the cap space can't be used on anything because all the top FAs are gone, so I am now in favour of extending him if we can do it a reasonable number. $10M to $10.9M but not at a raise is my definition of a reasonable number. We then either have a bargain of he becomes a playoff performer or we have an asset to trade that does not become a UFA after one year, a UFA that could be asking for $13M. I think it increases his value considerably.

What I don't want is him walking as a UFA next year where we get nothing but cap space. That's not terrible, but it is my least favourite option

I understood what you were saying and I hear you, but, I just cant go from I want him gone to lets extend him. In my mind I want him gone, period, I don't care how or for what really.

...or, you could not parse my post to remove the context and reply to my full point.

I don't think teams that let a $10M player walk away for nothing are maximizing the asset. What I said was, sign him and hope he figures it out and then he's a bargain. It not, try to trade him next year and his value would be up because he has term and is not a pending UFA.


Are you done thinking? Those are the only two ways I can think of Mitch changing the narrative, what else have you come up with?

What I was trying to say is out of those 2 options you gave its a no brainer that I would feel much different about 16 if he put up the 30 pts in the playoffs. I wouldn't feel much different about him if he took 10 million instead of 12.

 

[mikeyz]

Sounds like this prediction is in the ballpark, we can only hope it's not us that's paying this choker top dollar until he's declining heavily at the age of 35.

Yeah. That's going to be bad if the Leafs bring him back to that.

 

[Gary Nylund]

No player want to negotiate a new contract at 35 years old. The good ones have a few years left and are able to sign a multiyear contract at 34 with a team that will not be on the hook for cap if he retires. That drives the last contract into job security.

Not sure what your point is here. I'm not even thinking about what Marner does when he's 35, I'm just hoping we don't sign him for 7 more years and are therefore stuck with him until he reaches that age.

 

[myleafs]

...or, you could not parse my post to remove the context and reply to my full point.

I don't think teams that let a $10M player walk away for nothing are maximizing the asset. What I said was, sign him and hope he figures it out and then he's a bargain. It not, try to trade him next year and his value would be up because he has term and is not a pending UFA.


Are you done thinking? Those are the only two ways I can think of Mitch changing the narrative, what else have you come up with?

I did no such thing. You said maybe just maybe he turns into something he has never been and if he signs for only 10 milly and he figures it out he would be a bargain. A lot of ifs and only maybes which I was replying to. Lets pay a guy 10 milly plus and hope he maybe figures it out seems like a bad plan to me.

 

[mikeyz]

Not sure what your point is here. I'm not even thinking about what Marner does when he's 35, I'm just hoping we don't sign him for 7 more years and are therefore stuck with him until he reaches that age.

He is never going to step up in the playoffs and be the player that he's paid to be. I still don't understand how his apologists don't see this. What do they need? Another 8 more years of data to finally get it?

Although. With that being said. I'm not going to lie. I do have a bit of a morbid curiosity to see what Berube can do with him this season.

 

[thewave]

He is never going to step up in the playoffs and be the player that he's paid to be. I still don't understand how his apologists don't see this. What do they need? Another 8 more years of data to finally get it?

Although. With that being said. I'm not going to lie. I do have a bit of a morbid curiosity to see what Berube can do with him this season.

The point of collecting data is to make hard decisions before they actually become hard, or bad. The only thing the Dubas data mining centre we have here has spat out is failure.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

Being obsessed with cap management more than being actually just being a fan of hockey and your team is a sad result of an outdated system and is honestly why the NHL is about to be passed by MLS. Fans should not be obsessing over the cap, completely takes away from the product. They need to change to fluid cap system.

I myself am not obsessed with the cap as a fan (we have little control over it and really it’s not my issue to worry about, it’s Trelivings). But I can see if you are why you have no enjoyment in watching this team and that’s horrible.

The cap isn't the problem. Mismanagement is. These phonies wouldn't do any damage, with or without a cap. There's no cap on hockey ops, Leafs allegedly spend the most and these are the results. Turns out there's more to life than money.

 

[rumman]

LOL, you're still trying to cpmpare Marner to McDavid? Are you waiting for McDavid to sign his next contract so the you can argue Marner should get a bit more than McDavid on his deal?


Make it a priority how? You don't think they were trying to win as many games as they can in previous years?

At the end of last season it was all about getting Mathews his 70th goal, winner games was a afterthought…….

 

[conFABulator]

I understood what you were saying and I hear you, but, I just cant go from I want him gone to lets extend him. In my mind I want him gone, period, I don't care how or for what really.


What I was trying to say is out of those 2 options you gave its a no brainer that I would feel much different about 16 if he put up the 30 pts in the playoffs. I wouldn't feel much different about him if he took 10 million instead of 12.

For sure. Sorry if I misunderstood.

Both could change the narrative, one much more and better than the other