Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Notsince67]

Listening to Biz the other day, I think he might be on to something.

Marner on a contract year might go en fuego. He's all about Money and his next contract so I can totally see him giving us the best effort he's ever given us.

But do we risk him going into UFA and lose him for nothing?

We risk nothing. MLSE will carry the risks. I don't really understand why people on this forum try to negotiate Marners future on this team. It is what it is and the logic of the situation will prevail because the people at MLSE have jobs to ensure the least likely path of destruction. Shanny doesn't have a ton of time left and Berube has 4 or 5 years. Nobody will do a thing out of spite. They will pursue pragmatism. Losing Mitch Marner for nothing is a complete fail. A polished turd is still a turd. If a potential lucrative deal cannot be reached, the only other sulution is to re-sign Marner and the coach to bear down *if* he doesn't play to his expectations. Nobody wants to work in a place of misery and Marner would eventually ask for a trade...if it came to that.
If the team over estimates their short term leverage, they will be cooked and they likely know it. A NMC on a last year is toothpaste out of the tube. What is done is done.

 

[thewave]

We risk nothing. MLSE will carry the risks. I don't really understand why people on this forum try to negotiate Marners future on this team. It is what it is and the logic of the situation will prevail because the people at MLSE have jobs to ensure the least likely path of destruction. Shanny doesn't have a ton of time left and Berube has 4 or 5 years. Nobody will do a thing out of spite. They will pursue pragmatism. Losing Mitch Marner for nothing is a complete fail. A polished turd is still a turd. If a potential lucrative deal cannot be reached, the only other sulution is to re-sign Marner and the coach to bear down *if* he doesn't play to his expectations. Nobody wants to work in a place of misery and Marner would eventually ask for a trade...if it came to that.
If the team over estimates their short term leverage, they will be cooked and they likely know it. A NMC on a last year is toothpaste out of the tube. What is done is done.

Lost contract years of Matthews etc. Better to restructure immediately and try and win. 50m next season for another flop as twirly shows off some edge work in pregame doesn't cut the mustard

 

[rumman]

Love the snarky new thread title. The butthurt is strong in the Marner Lovers, Rocket Security, and the MAF Foundation.

Good one……

Countdown: 40 days until July 1st. We should start to get a better idea if this team really is changing or just snake oil.
As I’ve said, if Marner isn’t traded sometime in July, the run it back crowd can pop up from the weeds again.

Then if we can’t get by the 1st round again, looks like Berube’s first year for the blame.

Can’t wait until the roster begins to change, I hope Chief has a lot of input on any player acquisitions and at least 2 core pieces are moved, preferably Marner and Rielly……..

 

[rumman]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if in a contract year with us he knocked it out of the park, 100-120 pts and then makes you question extending him.

Sort of like what Nylander did, but on steroids, Leafs needs players that give it all every shift, not just in their contract year……..

 

[nsleaf]

Fixed it.

What's that make you Kevin?

 

[Tak7]

Who cares. He got his contract because he billed himself Prime Mike Tyson. Problem is he hit the mat in round 1 every single title match. Nobody gives a damn about Mitch Marner anymore.

He said, unsarcastically, on page ONE HUNDRED AND THREE of the Marner thread

 

[Notsince67]

Lost contract years of Matthews etc. Better to restructure immediately and try and win. 50m next season for another flop as twirly shows off some edge work in pregame doesn't cut the mustard

Restructuring would require a window that Shanny doesn't have. While he is still around, you won't see a second rebuild.

 

[thewave]

Sort of like what Nylander did, but on steroids, Leafs needs players that give it all every shift, not just in their contract year……..

it'll always tail off in the post season. What he does in the regular means nothing because his ceiling in the post is exposed.

Restructuring would require a window that Shanny doesn't have. While he is still around, you won't see a second rebuild.

So waste another year. If he signs big dump the thought of winning. I cant imagine them not trading him.

 

[rumman]

He's never hit 100 points.

He's absolutely guaranteed to hit 100 pts if he's here next year - time to lay that bet heavy.

He’s as good as gone imo, the team’s failure doesn’t lay on Marner’s shoulders alone, but two if the high priced losers need to be traded. I’m hoping it’s 16 and 44…….

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're spending 50million on that experiment. I count the obvious loss of all the contracts i have to pay to AM and WN with zero hope of success. That matters

Sorry sooner move on and get value back. Have a kick at the can then a wasted year of watching spinny twirl around doing nothing towards winning.

I know right? As the saying goes, 50 million here, 50 million there, pretty soon you're talking about serious money.

We risk nothing. MLSE will carry the risks. I don't really understand why people on this forum try to negotiate Marners future on this team. It is what it is and the logic of the situation will prevail because the people at MLSE have jobs to ensure the least likely path of destruction. Shanny doesn't have a ton of time left and Berube has 4 or 5 years. Nobody will do a thing out of spite. They will pursue pragmatism. Losing Mitch Marner for nothing is a complete fail. A polished turd is still a turd. If a potential lucrative deal cannot be reached, the only other sulution is to re-sign Marner and the coach to bear down *if* he doesn't play to his expectations. Nobody wants to work in a place of misery and Marner would eventually ask for a trade...if it came to that.
If the team over estimates their short term leverage, they will be cooked and they likely know it. A NMC on a last year is toothpaste out of the tube. What is done is done.

Wrong. And resigning Marner for 12.5 as you suggested isn't a "solution", it's far more likely to be a catastrophe.

 

[rumman]

That’s still running it back to me. Yeah you put a new band aid on a wound that needs 50 stitches. Great, you’re right, you changed the band aid. All good.

Yup, if you have gangerine in your knee, amputating your foot doesn’t do much……..

 

[leafan11]

His stat-line for playoff goals as a soon to be 100M offensive winger
2024 - 1G in 7 games (no impact on outcome)
2023 - 3G in 11 games (good Tampa series, non-factor against Florida)
2022 - 2G (scored in game 1 and game 2) in 7 games
2021 - 0G in 7 games
2020 - 0G in 5 games
2019 - 2G (both in game 1) in 7 games

That's enough.

This is Brutal but AM isn’t much better. I’m not sure what the point of a having a perennial Rocket Richard winner if he can’t score in the playoffs.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I really don’t know why a team would want marner. The guy is useless come playoff time.

There are usually teams that think they can trade for a player and get more out of him. Phil Esposito was called a playoff choker in Chicago (8 pts in 29 games). When he was traded to Boston, he put up 102 points in 71 games.

The only way I see Marner getting $12+m is if he signs with the Leafs and the Leafs retain $2-$3m when they trade him. Nobody outside the idiot Leafs are overpaying on an overpay for a small, soft, weak, playmaking winger who has had very little playoff success. Luckily the Leafs are moving on so they can't shoot themselves in the foot a second time.

Not sure that's allowed with a newly signed contract, but little chance the Leafs would want to retain $3m for eight years,

 

[Notsince67]

Nalied it. Not only have we had to throw players overboard to pay these four playoff losers, Dubas bled assets adding at the TDL because the four losers could not get out of round #1. That is the brutal truth. Yet some still think the solution is to resign Marner for $100m. Wow.

Some still think letting Marner walk for nothing is a solution. Wow.
Signing Marner absent an immediate adequate trade opens up other possibilities. You just can't see it and waive everyone off as if they're idiots. There is always a move to make if you don't blow up the chessboard.

I know right? As the saying goes, 50 million here, 50 million there, pretty soon you're talking about serious money.


Wrong. And resigning Marner for 12.5 as you suggested isn't a "solution", it's far more likely to be a catastrophe.

I don't propose a solution. I propose a likely scenario absent a blockbuster trade.

 

[ToneDog]

There are usually teams that think they can trade for a player and get more out of him. Phil Esposito was called a playoff choker in Chicago (8 pts in 29 games). When he was traded to Boston, he put up 102 points in 71 games.

Not sure that's allowed with a newly signed contract, but little chance the Leafs would want to retain $3m for eight years,

I agree but I thought it was one avenue to allow Marner to get his $12m, a team to get him @ a discount and Leafs pay to get him to waive and help get a deal done. I do not see many teams lining up to pay Mitch $100m, no matter what Paul Marner thinks.

Some still think letting Marner walk for nothing is a solution. Wow.
Signing Marner absent an immediate adequate trade opens up other possibilities. You just can't see it and waive everyone off as if they're idiots. There is always a move to make if you don't blow up the chessboard.


I don't propose a solution. I propose a likely scenario absent a blockbuster trade.

I'm not letting him walk for nothing. I am trading him this summer and not repeating the same mistake we did with Nylander. How's that deal looking today?

 

[Notsince67]

I agree but I thought it was one avenue to allow Marner to get his $12m, a team to get him @ a discount and Leafs pay to get him to waive and help get a deal done. I do not see many teams lining up to pay Mitch $100m, no matter what Paul Marner thinks.


I'm not letting him walk for nothing. I am trading him this summer and not repeating the same mistake we did with Nylander. How's that deal looking today?

It's irrelevant. It's in the past. You cannot trade Marner without his consent and you cannot trade Marner for mid-tier players or picks. Miracles can happen for sure but I hardly think that Moses had a plan to part the red sea early in his flight from Egypt.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I do not see many teams lining up to pay Mitch $100m, no matter what Paul Marner thinks.

Maybe, but it only takes one.

 

[Hellcat]

Lot of discussion on moving on but I'm curious how many of you are confident that this will happen.
Question isn't should they? that has been beaten to death.

The question is a simple WILL IT HAPPEN?

I'd put the chances pretty low of a trade. There are simply way too many checkmarks the trade has to fulfill.

1) Marner has to decide that it is in his best interest - he will want to benefit from this trade. IE a Willie type contact, plus, plus.
2) Treliving has to get good value for one of the most productive wingers in hockey. Outside of a couple of players, our farm system is shit and our near future draft picks options are shit, this is not a cap dump for future considerations.
3) The "new" team has to have NHL ready assets and cap space to sign Marner and probably be willing to sign him long term.
4) Probably fair to say the Leafs are not looking for a forward to replace Marner, the other team needs to have an elite Dman or an elite goalie, that they are willing to part with. Likely the Leafs want the player to be in his prime 25 to 29 years old. How many teams have two elite #1 Goalies they they are willing to part with? How many teams have good to very good dmen - probably Right side d-men - that they are willing to part with.
5) Every team knows the Leafs want to make changes, no team is going to help the Leafs, every team will offer pennies on the dollar for Mitch.


I think the core five will be back again next year, simply because no team will pay a reasonable price for Mitch.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

This is Brutal but AM isn’t much better. I’m not sure what the point of a having a perennial Rocket Richard winner if he can’t score in the playoffs.

Yeah Auston has not been great in the playoffs either. He looked like a god in game 2 and then it went off the rails.

 

[Tak7]

He’s as good as gone imo, the team’s failure doesn’t lay on Marner’s shoulders alone, but two if the high priced losers need to be traded. I’m hoping it’s 16 and 44…….

Time will tell whether this is the case or not.

I personally have a very hard time believing that an organization that has bent over backwards since forever for these guys and catered to their every need, all of a sudden having the stomach to make things uncomfortable enough that he'd want to waive his NMC.

I just don't think that front office has that ruthlessness in them.

 

[Kazparov]

Don't Trade Marner!!! But it is not what you think. A trade is potentially a much less desirable option than waiting out the year, letting him walk, and taking the 11 million to the incredible UFA market next year.

Hear me out. A trade is with one team, and it is a compromised situation. Marner has to approve, which is a major restriction of choice. I can't think of one trade now that matches the potential of people who could be available next summer, since it is an open market, not based on one team. Yes, some will sign with their current team -- and some won't.

Here are some names that could be out there in 2025: Mikko Rantanen, Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl (!), Brent Burns, Victor Hedman, Aaaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand (also !!, but old..), Igor Shesterkin, Travis Konecny, Shea Theodore, Juusi Saros, Linus Ullmark, Jakob Chychrun, Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe, Jake Oettinger, Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard, Bowen Byram, Alexis LaFreniere, etc -- just to list some names, not that I like them all. It is choice.

Being patient could pay off....

Doesn't make sense. Get something for him this year, and if you need to can keep cap flexibility into 25. Just because he leaves this year doesn't mean they need to commit long term cap space.

Also JT comes off in 25 as well.

Get some assets for Marner now.

 

[ToneDog]

Maybe, but it only takes one.

And he is on the one team that would but I think they are feeling the heat and will not do it. Of course, these are the Leafs and there is a reason they haven't won since MLK and RFK were alive.

 

[thewave]

Doesn't make sense. Get something for him this year, and if you need to can keep cap flexibility into 25. Just because he leaves this year doesn't mean they need to commit long term cap space.

Also JT comes off in 25 as well.

Get some assets for Marner now.

The fanbase has almost no confidence in this core as is. They got boo'd off. If they run this back with only a new coach and fail again... I imagine heads rolling at Rogers Bell. Its actually reflecting on the parent companies now.

 

[rumman]

Time will tell whether this is the case or not.

I personally have a very hard time believing that an organization that has bent over backwards since forever for these guys and catered to their every need, all of a sudden having the stomach to make things uncomfortable enough that he'd want to waive his NMC.

I just don't think that front office has that ruthlessness in them.

Well they ran out if patience with Dubas, then Keefe, it’s only logical that they’ll move pieces if the core since that’s the only thing that hasn’t been changed………

 

[ULF_55]

Like to see him carry his own line.
He's staying and he'll be re-signed.

He'll be playing with Matthews

He's a setup guy, who can score 30, and Matthews is a shooter.