Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Gabriel426]

Home ice advantage, lesser opponents, coaching lots could explain the difference. Opponents could explain the difference, I think the Leafs have faced 4 (TB(x2), FL, Mtl) of the SC finalists in the last 9 years? you could argue the Leafs have faced more difficult opponents earlier in their playoffs than the players you mentioned.

To your question about Keefe telling Marner to stop producing, I know it was tongue in cheek but when Keefe was asked during the playoffs about line matching, Keefe said something to the extent, we dont line match, the other team needs to line match us. Keefe didn't believe strategically or see the value in getting his best players favourable match ups.

Not a fan of Keefe but to blame MM playoffs problems in elimination games on coaching is wrong.
1. MM is a great offensive player and he should be able to break opposing Defence or at the very least find ways to break opposing defence
2. Maybe Keefe didn’t matchup the lines….but MM and AM are supposed to be the true elites in the league, they should outplay beat 99% of oppositions.
3. They also faced BJs, Bruins and Caps and they didn’t advance after beating us. Tougher competitions for sure but how many playoffs teams in those years would had been an easy opponents for the Leafs? Whichever team you said in any given year, I would point out to their goalies and their top guys as players who will cause problems to the Leafs.

Spinning last night as a good game for anyone - and especially Matthews - Marner - Knies - would be really tough.. just like trying to convince people that Nylander is a playoff warrior.

Considering none of core even played a game in a CF. Can’t really say any of them is a playoff warrior.
They are the true definition of playoff chokers.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Spinning last night as a good game for anyone - and especially Matthews - Marner - Knies - would be really tough.. just like trying to convince people that Nylander is a playoff warrior.

Nylander is a playoff warrior - with a 1-8 PO series record, I don't think you can call any of our players a playoff warrior.

Nylander is a playoff warrior compared to Marner - yeah Ok, I guess you could say that.

Anyhow, this is a Marner thread, taking shots at Nylander (or anyone else on our team) to prop up Marner got old a long time ago.

2. Maybe Keefe didn’t matchup the lines….but MM and AM are supposed to be the true elites in the league, they should outplay beat 99% of oppositions.

100% this.

 

[Antropovsky]

All your questions have been answered but you don't realise it.

For example, McDavid had zero points in the last two games of the finals and simply did not get it done when it counted the most. But would I use a 2 games sample to somehow prove he sucks? Drai had 3 points in the entire finals and was a minus player. Does he suck?

You should now understand the things that you needed to understand. If you don't then review our conversation in the last few days. It's all there. I've answered every reasonable question and so have you.

We truly are done as long as you stop repeating yourself.

Curious are you comparing game 6 and 7 of the stanley cup finals to round 1? What's Mcdavids career games 5-7 compared to Marners? Nothing wrong with a sample size using careers.

 

[666]

Curious are you comparing game 6 and 7 of the stanley cup finals to round 1? What's Mcdavids career games 5-7 compared to Marners? Nothing wrong with a sample size using careers.

I'm not comparing anything. I'm just showing the absurdity of using a small sample size to say ANYTHING meaningful.

Of course there is a sample size problem with careers if there aren't enough samples. Jeez dude.

Marner was +5 a week ago and -6 last night. What can you concluded from that? The answer is NOTHING.

 

[ToneDog]

Look it up San Jose put 13 on the million. That's a fact and guess what? He probably wouldn't be going through all this tax evasion process that a lot of the other leaf players are now getting pulled into with their bonuses.

That is what the rumour was but I think playing in Toronto and being close to family trumped the extra money. Wish I had their problems with Revenue Canada.

 

[Antropovsky]

Interesting research several years ago by Havard grad and scientist turned Carolinas GM was that a players peak age was 25. From there effectiveness usually trajects downward, mainly due to speed and stamina going down with age.

Marner is slow as it is and definitely appears to already be slower than when he entered the league. Marner also appeared to peak at the age of 25.

Something to think about looking at a long term contract.

Nylanders best asset is his skating. So he should age reasonably well.

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm not comparing anything. I'm just showing the absurdity of using a small sample size to say ANYTHING meaningful.

Of course there is a sample size problem with careers if there aren't enough samples. Jeez dude.

Marner was +5 a week ago and -6 last night. What can you concluded from that? The answer is NOTHING.

Compare apples to apples... what is Mcdavids round 1 games 5-7 vs Marners?

Many variables change once you get to Stanley Cup Finals vs Rnd 1.

We have 8 years of data for Marner and 6 years of Data for Mcdavid and we aren't cutting any out. That isn't "a small sample size." Or "cherry picked".

 

[mclaren55]

Marner - 8th in scoring in the regular season since entering the league.
- 46th in playoff scoring since entering the league.

P/GP Reg Season - 1.13
P/GP Playoffs - .88

You guys are going to sit here and tell people this guy doesn't evaporate in the playoffs? Look at anyone else that is leading in the regular season on a playoff team and look at their playoff numbers.

These guys don't seem to have that problem;

Connor McDavid

Leon Draisaitl

Nathan MacKinnon

Mikko Rantanen

Nikita Kucherov

Sidney Crosby

Jack Eichel

Cale Makar

Evan Bouchard

So if you're going to be asked to be paid like one of the top players in the NHL, get it done like the top players in the NHL. This goes for Matthews as well.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Interesting research several years ago by Havard grad and scientist turned Carolinas GM was that a players peak age was 25. From there effectiveness usually trajects downward, mainly due to speed and stamina going down with age.

You forgot the part where players generally maintain close to their peak into their early 30s, and that elite players tend to maintain better and longer than your average player.

Nylanders best asset is his skating. So he should age reasonably well.

Players who rely on speed to be effective tend to age worse.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Marner - 8th in scoring in the regular season since entering the league.
- 46th in playoff scoring since entering the league.

P/GP Reg Season - 1.13
P/GP Playoffs - .88

You guys are going to sit here and tell people this guy doesn't evaporate in the playoffs? Look at anyone else that is leading in the regular season on a playoff team and look at their playoff numbers.

These guys don't seem to have that problem;

Connor McDavid

Leon Draisaitl

Nathan MacKinnon

Mikko Rantanen

Nikita Kucherov

Sidney Crosby

Jack Eichel

Cale Makar

Evan Bouchard

So if you're going to be asked to be paid like one of the top players in the NHL, get it done like the top players in the NHL. This goes for Matthews as well.

Regular season is what is important here please remember that maybe i can show you some regular season stats if you are interested

 

[Dekes For Days]

Many variables change once you get to Stanley Cup Finals vs Rnd 1.

Not as many as you seem to think, especially when we're already playing cup finalists.

We have 8 years of data for Marner and 6 years of Data for Mcdavid and we aren't cutting any out.

You are though. You're cutting out the majority of their playoff games.

 

[ACC1224]

Marner - 8th in scoring in the regular season since entering the league.
- 46th in playoff scoring since entering the league.

P/GP Reg Season - 1.13
P/GP Playoffs - .88

You guys are going to sit here and tell people this guy doesn't evaporate in the playoffs? Look at anyone else that is leading in the regular season on a playoff team and look at their playoff numbers.

These guys don't seem to have that problem;

Connor McDavid

Leon Draisaitl

Nathan MacKinnon

Mikko Rantanen

Nikita Kucherov

Sidney Crosby

Jack Eichel

Cale Makar

Evan Bouchard

So if you're going to be asked to be paid like one of the top players in the NHL, get it done like the top players in the NHL. This goes for Matthews as well.

No matter how many 100's of times the same things are repeated over and over, he's going to get paid, just like Matthews and Nylander did.

 

[mclaren55]

No matter how many 100's of times the same things are repeated over and over, he's going to get paid, just like Matthews and Nylander did.

Of course he is. We have a limp dick management team in place headed by Shanahan. These guys have the testicular fortitude of a jelly fish.

 

[Antropovsky]

You forgot the part where players generally maintain close to their peak into their early 30s, and that elite players tend to maintain better and longer than your average player.

Players who rely on speed to be effective tend to age worse.

Not exactly

Age 25 - peak production
Age 26-29 - 90% of peak production
29- decline accelerates
Approaching mid 30's - declines significantly


So if this is accurate... Marner peaked at 25, and now is holding 90% of that effectiness and next year will hold the 90% effectiveness but then by year 2 of a new contract the decline will accelerate downward. Not good news fot a player we are hoping will "improve" in upcoming playoffs.

From sportsnet article:

Scoring in the NHL is a young man’s game. Multiple studies have shown that offensive performance for NHL skaters peaks at the ages of 24 or 25. On average, we can expect players to maintain around 90 percent of their production through their age 29 season, but from that point on the decline tends to accelerate. This graph was created by Eric Tulsky to describe the average decline in Even Strength scoring (measured by points per 60 minutes of 5v5 TOI) as players age, and it fairly clearly indicates that the average player will see his scoring decline significantly as he approaches his mid-30s.

 

[666]

Compare apples to apples... what is Mcdavids round 1 games 5-7 vs Marners?

Many variables change once you get to Stanley Cup Finals vs Rnd 1.

We have 8 years of data for Marner and 6 years of Data for Mcdavid and we aren't cutting any out. That isn't "a small sample size." Or "cherry picked".

No one is comparing McDavid to Marner. I used an example showing why small sample sizes are just as dumb for McDavid as they are for Marner.

Marner has played in 14 win or you're out games in the playoffs and they won 7. There just isn't enough data to come to any conclusions whatsoever.

 

[Antropovsky]

No one is comparing McDavid to Marner. I used an example showing why small sample sizes are just as dumb for McDavid as they are for Marner.

Marner has played in 14 win or your out games in the playoffs and they won 7. There just isn't enough data to come to any conclusions whatsoever.

Okay, so what are the right sample sizes. Please let us know.

Because I'm sure I saw you quoted as saying Marner proved while Matthews was out that he can lead this team or something to that affect. If needed I'll go back and get that quote.

Matthews was out 14 games. Tell us how that sample size was appropriate to draw your conclusion.

 

[ACC1224]

Of course he is. We have a limp dick management team in place headed by Shanahan. These guys have the testicular fortitude of a jelly fish.

Every team in the league would sign them.

I always find it funny that when teams don't do what a fan wants it's because they're scared or they have no guts.

 

[666]

Okay, so what are the right sample sizes. Please let us know.

You're hopeless. I've finished with Gary now it's your turn.

You have two choices.

You can use small samples but then you have to account for all the context items like, match ups, linemates, coaches, competition, goaltending, injuries, usage etc, but it's a ton of work and you don't have the skills to do it.

Or you can start using much larger samples where the context items average out. That's the reason for the large samples. Get it now?

You're gonna have to do the work. Trust me, you will learn a lot. Figure out how large the set has to be so that the context averages out and do if for all the major stats. It's very easy and won't take long at all. I've told you this before. Also do the defensive stats too.

 

[francis246]

Of course he is. We have a limp dick management team in place headed by Shanahan. These guys have the testicular fortitude of a jelly fish.

Eichel got paid 10 million for doing jack shit in Buffalo. He didn’t even have a season anywhere close to our top end guys and Buffalo finished dead last every year he was there. Top end players get paid in sports and that’s it. Every management has a “limp dick”. No manager is letting their stars walk and not paying them. So not sure what you’re arguing. Stars rarely are paid for playoff success. Sometimes it lines up that way like the Colorado guys, but in most cases it doesn’t. We see this right across all major sports.

 

[ULF_55]

Spinning last night as a good game for anyone - and especially Matthews - Marner - Knies - would be really tough.. just like trying to convince people that Nylander is a playoff warrior.

Leafs have zero playoffs warriors, they just have some players who underperform their regular season level.

It is tougher in the playoffs, and other than a few players Kucherov, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Rantanen, ... players it is expected.

 

[ToneDog]

Leafs have zero playoffs warriors, they just have some players who underperform their regular season level.

It is tougher in the playoffs, and other than a few players Kucherov, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Rantanen, ... players it is expected.

Chris Tanev disagrees.

 

[mclaren55]

Eichel got paid 10 million for doing jack shit in Buffalo. He didn’t even have a season anywhere close to our top end guys and Buffalo finished dead last every year he was there. Top end players get paid in sports and that’s it. Every management has a “limp dick”. No manager is letting their stars walk and not paying them. So not sure what you’re arguing. Stars rarely are paid for playoff success. Sometimes it lines up that way like the Colorado guys, but in most cases it doesn’t. We see this right across all major sports.

Probably not the best idea to stake your argument on Buffalos management.

You're actually going to compare that Buffalo team he was on to the Leafs? Take note that Eichel on a SHIT team was only a few points behind Marner every season he was on Buffalo.

I listed guys who ELEVATE (or at least don't evaporate) their games in the playoffs. Most of those guys have been to a Finals, or won a Cup. Compare what you want, but Marner isn't anywhere close to anyone I listed in terms of playoff performance. I would take Eichel over Marner if it were an option.

To think playoff performance doesn't factor into a players contract negotiations is willful ignorance. Keep believing management teams only pay guys based on regular season stats.

 

[ULF_55]

Chris Tanev disagrees.

Well he has been to the 3rd. once and 2nd. round twice..

Let's see how he does with the Leafs.

 

[ToneDog]

Well he has been to the 3rd. once and 2nd. round twice..

Let's see how he does with the Leafs.

I expect him to play as well in the playoffs as he does in the regular season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

From sportsnet article:

Scoring in the NHL is a young man’s game. Multiple studies have shown that offensive performance for NHL skaters peaks at the ages of 24 or 25. On average, we can expect players to maintain around 90 percent of their production through their age 29 season, but from that point on the decline tends to accelerate. This graph was created by Eric Tulsky to describe the average decline in Even Strength scoring (measured by points per 60 minutes of 5v5 TOI) as players age, and it fairly clearly indicates that the average player will see his scoring decline significantly as he approaches his mid-30s.

That's just looking at regular season 5v5 points per 60, and even that notes that the decline is only significant as they approach their mid-30s. Overall impact maintains pretty well into early 30s. And remember; these are averages. If anything, Marner is probably one of the safest players in the league to sign to an older age. Elite players tend to maintain better. He has no chronic injuries. And the things that make him successful aren't things that tend to deteriorate much from age. Also, 90% of Marner's peak 5v5 points per 60 still places him among the top of the league.