Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Coaches Coroner]

The people who want him gone the most will also be the ones to do the most crying when he's gone and we are still "collectively" unsuccessful.

 

[666]

The people who want him gone the most will also be the ones to do the most crying when he's gone and we are still "collectively" unsuccessful.

It will be way worse than that.

At first it will be we told you so. Management (who they have always hated) has now finally done the right thing even though we all know that it will have been Marner's decision to leave.

Then, they will salivate at the $22M in cap that we save from Marner and JT proposing all sorts of nonsense trades / UFA signings for superstars that won't happen. Of course McDavid talk will be rampant but he's not potentially available for 2 years. Have you ever seen a GM sit on $15M waiting for a guy?

Then when we've overpaid three $5M guys (think Bertuzzi, Kadri) $7M they will cheer our new found "depth" not noticing that we replaced two guys with three.

Only after the results actually get worse and Matthews leaves will they turn on management, whine about "production" and "results" and the whole cycle again starts.

At least they are predictable.

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner's 5v5 stats during the past 14 games Matthews was injured:

- 14 GP: 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points

- 2 goals came in one game against Detroit, one being an empty-net tap-in set up by a Tavares between the legs pass, the other a tip in.
- 1 goal vs. Utah was a pass attempt from behind the net that banked in off a player.

- 1 primary assist (came with 6 minutes left in a 5-2 loss).
- 2 secondary assists

This pace projects to 35 even-strength points over a full season, which would have ranked him 90th in even-strength scoring last year.

 

[MilkofthePoppy]

We should re-sign him, just not during the season. It will be difficult to replace Marner's talent.

 

[666]

Marner's 5v5 stats during the past 14 games Matthews was injured:

- 14 GP: 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points

- 2 goals came in one game against Detroit, one being an empty-net tap-in set up by a Tavares between the legs pass, the other a tip in.
- 1 goal vs. Utah was a pass attempt from behind the net that banked in off a player.

- 1 primary assist (came with 6 minutes left in a 5-2 loss).
- 2 secondary assists

This pace projects to 35 even-strength points over a full season, which would have ranked him 90th in even-strength scoring last year.

Dude, stop posting data with such small sample sizes. We all know what you're doing. You're searching for stupid small sample size data that makes Marner look bad because it doesn't work when you use proper sample sizes.

For example, Matthews with Domi was unsustainably great offensively but not even McDavid and Drai can't sustain those numbers. Also you of course ignore their ridiculously high GA as Matthews chased 70 goals. But none of that matters because the sample size is too small.

You have spent so much time trying to "prove" that Marner sucks in the regular season by using misleading stats but you will find that if you do it right it's impossible because he is a superstar. Here are the basic facts:

Matthews is great with everyone but scores more with Marner.

Marner is somewhat worse without Matthews but of course he is as then he's playing with J.T at best.

Marner is by far the second best Leaf and it's not close.

Nylander is great offensively but absolutely horrible defensively and only does well defensively with Matthews.

Here's some advice:
1) Stop using small sample sizes.
2) Never use only points. They are less than 2% of playing time.
3) Always consider defensive stats as well.
4) Always consider context.
5) You need to understand sample sizes. Go find some stats for any players and find out how far back you have to go for the variability to settle. I'm not going to tell you the answers, you have to figure it out. But do it, you'll learn a lot. It's shameful that we have to teach you the absolute basics of stats.

For the life of jebus stop posting stats until you understand sample sizes.

 

[Antropovsky]

Dude, stop posting data with such small sample sizes. We all know what you're doing. You're searching for stupid small sample size data that makes Marner look bad because it doesn't work when you use proper sample sizes.

For example, Matthews with Domi was unsustainably great offensively but not even McDavid and Drai can't sustain those numbers. Also you of course ignore their ridiculously high GA as Matthews chased 70 goals. But none of that matters because the sample size is too small.

You have spent so much time trying to "prove" that Marner sucks in the regular season by using misleading stats but you will find that if you do it right it's impossible because he is a superstar. Here are the basic facts:

Matthews is great with everyone but scores more with Marner.

Marner is somewhat worse without Matthews but of course he is as then he's playing with J.T at best.

Marner is by far the second best Leaf and it's not close.

Nylander is great offensively but absolutely horrible defensively and only does well defensively with Matthews.

Here's some advice:
1) Stop using small sample sizes.
2) Never use only points. They are less than 2% of playing time.
3) Always consider defensive stats as well.
4) Always consider context.
5) You need to understand sample sizes. Go find some stats for any player and find out how far back you have to go for the variability to settle. I'm not going to tell you the answers, you have to figure it out. But do it, you'll learn a lot. It's shameful that we have to teach you the absolute basics of stats.

For the life of jebus stop posting stats until you understand sample sizes.

I'm not gonna argue, im just posting factual stats one time. Which is within the boards policies.

Would love to debate the stats (not peoples possible personal like or dislike for a player), if you have stats that show he was incredible the 14 games without Matthews. By all means post them.

Also, your facts are incorrect, Matthews actually scored more goals/60 when not with Marner in 2023 and 2024 season. This could be just a coincidence, but if one looks exclusively at Matthews g/60 with and without Marner He actually produced more goals/60 without him.

However, im not getting into that, just wanted to correct you on your error.

Im just posting "new"stats, which were the 14 games without Matthews.

I wont be responding to your attempts to attack me personally and provoke me.

 

[666]

I wont be responding to your attempts to attack me personally and provoke me.

I'm not trying to provoke you, I'm trying to help you understand something that I've been trained in and you obviously haven't. You used to post Corsi stats and some of us showed you that's not how it's done anymore so you found Natural Stat Trick and started using those stats wrong too. An analogy would be a 10 year old finding a piano for the first time, pounding on the keys and thinking that they've discovered music. Once again. Find some stats, work them backwards, graph the results and see how each stat takes a different amount of time to "settle". You will learn a lot and then we don't have to keep explaining things to you.

I would also suggest thinking about how much time a player spends "accumulating points" each night and then focusing on the other 98 percent of their ice time.

 

[IPS]

Dude, stop posting data with such small sample sizes. We all know what you're doing. You're searching for stupid small sample size data that makes Marner look bad because it doesn't work when you use proper sample sizes.

Why is this a small sample size now? Earlier you were more than happy to proclaim this sample size as undeniable proof that "Marner can lead the team without Matthews at his best".

How is his opinion in any way different to yours if we're talking in terms of your standards?


Edit: I won't even get into which opinions I agree with and what I don't - you specifically impose measures on others that you yourself don't even follow, that's what my point is.

 

[Gary Nylund]

No. Stop focusing on only points, stop watching the puck and learn to watch the other 98% of the game.

"It's the time between the goals that Marner really shines."
- 666

I watch 100% of the game.

Marner was pretty bad last two playoff series we played. His point totals in those series accurately reflect how ineffective he was. You can spin the facts any way you like but the fact is that he's a 100 point player for the first 86 games of the season, then he turns into a 40 point player and if you think he "shines between the goals" enough to make up for his lack of production, you're deluding yourself.

Not only do I watch the game, I also keep an open mind and maybe you should learn to do the same. If Marner kills it in the playoffs for a change (and not just the first 4 games) I will be thrilled to heap praise on him, and then you can call me a "flip flopper" again.

 

[ACC1224]

I miss the old thread.

 

[666]

Why is this a small sample size now? Earlier you more than happy to proclaim this sample size as undeniable proof that "Marner can lead the team without Matthews at his best".

View attachment 957056

How is his opinion in any way different to yours if we're talking in terms of your standards?

What? He used a 14 game sample size of a cherry picked stat (with an even smaller sample size) where the teams best player was missing.

I compared Marner's entire season (so far) to the other stars who weren't missing their best player.

 

[nuck]

i've sorta gotten over it with how badly all of the other contracts were too

nylander sat out, matthews had taken an nba level contract

as for the UFA contracts, nylander is a typical overpayment but matthews is a whole other case. He might be the first player ever where the reports where "AAV is sorted, but term is not"... How does that even make any f***ing sense. term and aav should be correlated but thats another trend that our 1C has broken.

when it comes to money, I find all three amigos just as guilty

But Shanahan, Dubas and now Tre are the real three salary amigos. They bent over themselves, they weren't forced. Marner can still be paid more than any of his comps without being more than Matthews. (Drai is not remotely his comp unless he wins a Conn Smyth and takes them to a Cup).

Lets see what kind of a deal Ranta gets.

 

[ACC1224]

After the season he's had to date, to try and find any little crumb of negativity is pretty special .

 

[TMLeafer]

Sign the man!

 

[ACC1224]

Sign the man!

I think we will see that happen by the 4 Nations break.

 

[666]

I watch 100% of the game.

All I can say is that based on your obsession with points in a very small sample set of an already small sample set which is literally less than 1% of the game, the fact that it's been explained to you many times yet you keep repeating the same tired talking points hundreds maybe thousands of times that you CLEARLY don't watch the game away from the puck.

We have people who get to watch the games live (believe me you are missing a ton of the game watching on TV), people who are trained in stats, people who have played the game at a very high level, people who have coached the game at high a level, the actual GM's paying Marner and the actual coaches playing Marner in all the critical situations ALL telling you the same thing, yet you still don't see it.

 

[ToneDog]

All I can say is that based on your obsession with points in a very small sample set of an already small sample set which is literally less than 1% of the game, the fact that it's been explained to you many times yet you keep repeating the same tired talking points hundreds maybe thousands of times that you CLEARLY don't watch the game away from the puck.

We have people who get to watch the games live (believe me you are missing a ton of the game watching on TV), people who are trained in stats, people who have played the game at a very high level, people who have coached the game at high a level, the actual GM's paying Marner and the actual coaches playing Marner in all the critical situations ALL telling you the same thing, yet you still don't see it.

It is all good but at the end of the day, we have 3 super elite forwards who have one playoff series win in 9 attempts. Last I heard, it is a results oriented business. I am guessing that does not include playoff results.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

But Shanahan, Dubas and now Tre are the real three salary amigos. They bent over themselves, they weren't forced. Marner can still be paid more than any of his comps without being more than Matthews. (Drai is not remotely his comp unless he wins a Conn Smyth and takes them to a Cup).

Lets see what kind of a deal Ranta gets.

Pastrnak Makes 11.25, signed it in the middle of his 60 goal campaign, rough season now, but he was 2nd in hart that year on an offensively more inept team than ours

MacKinnon, a vastly superior player made 12.6. Granted it was now 2 years ago he signed it but even still, Marner isn’t a better player so I can’t see 15% of the cap.

Like you said, rantanen would seal the deal for me. Whatever he makes, Marner should make 500k-1M less as he’s not as good.

Without him, I’d guess marners number starts at 12. Anything over is an overpayment, anything under is a good deal.

 

[666]

It is all good but at the end of the day, we have 3 super elite forwards who have one playoff series win in 9 attempts. Last I heard, it is a results oriented business. I am guessing that does not include playoff results.

Sure it does. Thirty one teams don't win the cup. We've had some bad luck. We've never had a great goaltender. Rielly isn't a number one. Covid really messed with the cap. We haven't really been a true contender yet. The core and the team in general have not got it done although did you really expect them to win the cup. BUT, Marner has played as well as the rest of the core and we don't see people posting literally the same thing thousands of times in the Matthews, Nylander, Rielly and JT threads. There are a few very vocal people who are literally negatively obsessed with Marner but not the others and it appears to be an emotional response because it defies reason.

 

[ToneDog]

Pastrnak Makes 11.25, signed it in the middle of his 60 goal campaign, rough season now, but he was 2nd in hart that year on an offensively more inept team than ours

MacKinnon, a vastly superior player made 12.6. Granted it was now 2 years ago he signed it but even still, Marner isn’t a better player so I can’t see 15% of the cap.

Like you said, rantanen would seal the deal for me. Whatever he makes, Marner should make 500k-1M less as he’s not as good.

Without him, I’d guess marners number starts at 12. Anything over is an overpayment, anything under is a good deal.

This. Let Sakic set the market because clearly, those in charge at the cash box have no clue. Willy @ $11.5m says Hi.

P.S. If Marner gets less than Ranta, I will have no complaints. If they pay him more that Ranta again after the last 6 year sample size, then you can bet your ass that I will want this core blown up if they do not get to round #3.

 

[Madap]

Hopefully they get the contract wrapped up by the 4 Nations so they can have no distractions during the playoff run.

Making excuses for a poor playoff run already?! January must be a new record.

In all seriousness he’s had a really good season so far and deserves credit but how would signing him now be any different than signing Nylander early last year? Not a great contract and we could have got him for less if we waited.

 

[AvroArrow]

Anyone who has been watching this season who doesn't want Marner back, cannot be taken seriously.

I was one of the most vocal posters about wanting him gone this summer, he's not just producing he's playing playoff style hockey. Not only is he getting into scrums, he's initiating them. He's hitting guys and finishing checks, against the B's he went in on the forecheck and laid the body leading to a turnover and immediate goal.

We all complained that he played soft etc. But no one can say that about him this season, I think some posters are just "pot committed" at this point and just doesn't wanna retract their statements. Doesn't make you foolish to admit you were wrong.

 

[Anthrax442]

I like him more when he shoots. When Matthews was injured, he shot more and scored more

 

[DarkKnight]

After the season he's had to date, to try and find any little crumb of negativity is pretty special .

When you say more about yourself....

Anyone who has been watching this season who doesn't want Marner back, cannot be taken seriously.

I was one of the most vocal posters about wanting him gone this summer, he's not just producing he's playing playoff style hockey. Not only is he getting into scrums, he's initiating them. He's hitting guys and finishing checks, against the B's he went in on the forecheck and laid the body leading to a turnover and immediate goal.

We all complained that he played soft etc. But no one can say that about him this season, I think some posters are just "pot committed" at this point and just doesn't wanna retract their statements. Doesn't make you foolish to admit you were wrong.

I appreciate your pragmatism. He has changed his game somewhat, less weak backhand passes that create danger, more board battles and winning them as well. More direct, safer with the puck, in the dirty areas out front and on the wall, initiating contact periodically. It bodes well, there is evolution there for the fair minded. Will it translate? Remains to be seen, but signs are good. He's fit like a glove in Berube's system.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Anyone who has been watching this season who doesn't want Marner back, cannot be taken seriously.

I was one of the most vocal posters about wanting him gone this summer, he's not just producing he's playing playoff style hockey. Not only is he getting into scrums, he's initiating them. He's hitting guys and finishing checks, against the B's he went in on the forecheck and laid the body leading to a turnover and immediate goal.

We all complained that he played soft etc. But no one can say that about him this season, I think some posters are just "pot committed" at this point and just doesn't wanna retract their statements. Doesn't make you foolish to admit you were wrong.

I am still team break the core 4 up but for me it isn't about wanting him back or not, it's just that the timing is completely in marner's favour, he's currently on a career high pace and is only going to do better with the thought of being paid. Why not use that? Let him play the season and playoffs out

if he finishes strong and has a great playoffs, i'd be willing to pay a little more, but I don't wanna repeat the nylander instance here. My disagreement with others comes when they say we need to get a deal done right now. It didn't work out with nylander, so I am skeptical about it working out here