Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[ULF_55]

Can’t imagine there is anyone left that hasn’t concluded that he’s re-signing.

As I've said, the only suspense left is the term.

It was always going to be more than Nylander.

A tiny suspense is whether it will be more than Matthews. I don't believe it will, probably halfway between Nylander and Matthews.

Edit: It could be more than Matthews based on %ofCap, which is an unknown. Example, is Draisaitl better than Matthews? Answer depends on who you are a fan of. Draisaitl $14mm Cap Hit on new contract. He signed full term commitment to the team though.

 

[DarkKnight]

Makes no sense not to sign him early.
They won’t want to let playoffs be the deciding factor that would be really silly.
A poor assumption on the frothers part is that just because they feel all failure is down to this one player it’s doubtful the team feels the same way.

I think it will go down the same as the Nylander contract. 12.5-13 would be a good deal with the cap rising.

 

[ToneDog]

As I've said, the only suspense left is the term.

It was always going to be more than Nylander.

A tiny suspense is whether it will be more than Matthews. I don't believe it will, probably halfway between Nylander and Matthews.

Still hoping somebody at the cash box wakes up and tells them to wait until after the playoffs. Locked into the 3 amigos and watching them and the team shit their pants in the playoffs again would surly slow down jersey sales. The good thing is we have Berube behind the bench who will make them accountable.

 

[ACC1224]

As I've said, the only suspense left is the term.

It was always going to be more than Nylander.

A tiny suspense is whether it will be more than Matthews. I don't believe it will, probably halfway between Nylander and Matthews.

Yep he’ll land between the two as he should. He’s not worth more than Matthews and obviously he’s worth more than Nylander. Salaries at the top will finally be in line with the performance.

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares

 

[Gabriel426]

As I've said, the only suspense left is the term.

It was always going to be more than Nylander.

A tiny suspense is whether it will be more than Matthews. I don't believe it will, probably halfway between Nylander and Matthews.

Edit: It could be more than Matthews based on %ofCap, which is an unknown. Example, is Draisaitl better than Matthews? Answer depends on who you are a fan of. Draisaitl $14mm Cap Hit on new contract. He signed full term commitment to the team though.

Still think he will be sign after the playoffs.
If they crash out in the first round again and they all choke like playoffs past.
Where can the team go from there.
Lets run it back with the same core and hopes they get it next season?

 

[ULF_55]

When Dubas jump in

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Polak

They change hainsey for brodie who had been an downgrade

Gardiner for Muzzin who was a great upgrade... when healthy

and he drafted player who never fit in the team

waste asset every trade deadline to always try to fix defensive issues year after year

We dont have the same definition and " made it good "

Close, except:

Hainsey left end of 2018-2019 season.
Barrie acquired 2019-2020 season.
Brodie acquired 2020-2021 season.

Dubas tried to get Brodie in the Kadri deal but contract clauses stopped that.

 

[ULF_55]

Still hoping somebody at the cash box wakes up and tells them to wait until after the playoffs. Locked into the 3 amigos and watching them and the team shit their pants in the playoffs again would surly slow down jersey sales. The good thing is we have Berube behind the bench who will make them accountable.

IMO, not happening.

Rantanen will be re-signed by the Avs, so the best player available would be marner.

Even if they could land a 1st. and 2nd. liner with the money they won't do it.

 

[arso40]

Yep he’ll land between the two as he should. He’s not worth more than Matthews and obviously he’s worth more than Nylander. Salaries at the top will finally be in line with the performance.

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares

If magic Marner pulls a disappearing act yet again I’m not sure it’s blatantly obvious at all but hope he figures it out your extremely confident though I like it

 

[ToneDog]

IMO, not happening.

Rantanen will be re-signed by the Avs, so the best player available would be marner.

Even if they could land a 1st. and 2nd. liner with the money they won't do it.

Will be interesting to see if Leafs are dumb enough to pay Mitch more than Ranta this go around. Ranta is clearly the better player.

 

[ULF_55]

Will be interesting to see if Leafs are dumb enough to pay Mitch more than Ranta this go around. Ranta is clearly the better player.

oh oh mr carter horshack - Google Suche

"yes."

 

[notDatsyuk]

When Dubas jump in

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Polak

They change hainsey for brodie who had been an downgrade

Gardiner for Muzzin who was a great upgrade... when healthy

and he drafted player who never fit in the team

waste asset every trade deadline to always try to fix defensive issues year after year

We dont have the same definition and " made it good "

His ideas of 'good' and 'bad' are spectacularly different from anyone else's.

 

[Evilhomer]

Makes no sense not to sign him early.
They won’t want to let playoffs be the deciding factor that would be really silly.
A poor assumption on the frothers part is that just because they feel all failure is down to this one player it’s doubtful the team feels the same way.

I just don't think this team would risk leaving this until after the playoffs. There is no history of the leafs doing that with their best players when they approach UFA (RFA is a different situation).

 

[francis246]

Doubt it. I think they are scared to resign him and risk another playoff disaster and further pissing of Leafs fans who have seen enough of the same rerun.

The guy says he wants to remain a Leaf and Leafs can be the highest bidder. The only reason to resign him before the playoffs is if he gives them a sweet deal. Look how the SC champs handed their pending UFAs. Ah yes, they don't have anybody as great as Mitch. Gotta resign him yesterday.

The leafs aren’t scared to resign Marner because of his playoff performances. They are only scared of the public backlash if they sign him before the playoffs. That’s literally it. I think as an organization they’ve concluded they want to keep the player. But they know that it would be a media frenzy if they sign him before the playoffs. So if they do hold off, it’s probably more so to appease the fans than do the wait and see approach for playoff success.

I don’t think the organization really looks at Marner’s performances and say, “yup it’s his fault”. I think it’s pretty clear what Treliving thinks is the issue. Not big enough / tough defense, not good enough goaltending. Those have been the key things he’s focused on since arriving. It’s pretty clear whether they are wrong or right on this, the management group believes this group can find it offensively. It’s the other parts they want to strengthen

 

[Leafsfan74]

I just don't think this team would risk leaving this until after the playoffs. There is no history of the leafs doing that with their best players when they approach UFA (RFA is a different situation).

I think they should definitely wait until after the playoffs for both JT and Marner.

The Leafs have many good young players. I'd be more than willing to go a year with Matthews, Nylander, Domi, Knies, McMann all the young players they have coming up + their strong defense and $20M in cap space to play with.

Do this right, stop insulting fans, it's one big clubhouse. The Leafs won all of their Cups within the first 50 years of their existence, the last nearly 60 years they haven't even been to a Finals!

Beyond embarrassing.

Ultimately IF they do make a deal, there cannot be a NMC. At the worst, a limited no trade, but I want as much flexibility as possible to move players.

 

[DarkKnight]

If Marner signs a 8 year deal, with the cap rise, you better believe it will get close to Matthews.

 

[ACC1224]

If Marner signs a 8 year deal, with the cap rise, you better believe it will get close to Matthews.

Dollars wise perhaps not percentage wise.

 

[ULF_55]

If Marner signs a 8 year deal, with the cap rise, you better believe it will get close to Matthews.

How much of Draisaitl is playoffs related?
Or is it goals?
8 * $14mm

 

[ToneDog]

I just don't think this team would risk leaving this until after the playoffs. There is no history of the leafs doing that with their best players when they approach UFA (RFA is a different situation).

And how is that working out? Mitch wants to be a Leaf and Leafs can pay him the most money. What is the rush to resign him?

 

[DarkKnight]

How much of Draisaitl is playoffs related?
Or is it goals?
8 * $14mm

My number assumes the cap rises above what was expected when Draisaiti signed. If the floated numbers are correct that's an addition 5 percent on top of what was expected. So that puts Drai money at 14.7 using the same percentage, which people don't commute is all that matters to the agents. So Marner at 2 mil below isn't exactly outlandish on a max deal, is it? Internally too, with Matthews at 13 on a short term deal, how does Marner stack up for 8 years with a 10 percent cap increase over when Matthews signed? His 13 last year would be 14.3 this, so again percentage wise where does that put Marner? Guys here with their childish laugh emojis, aren't computing a quickly rising cap, percentages, if the PA will allow for more than the 5 percent agreed rise, then Marner's agent will re-gig the percentages. So away, but the game may be changing as this season unfolds and the cap changes. Of course, as Friedman reported, maybe it doesn't go up as much. Again, I'm assuming it does.

Dollars wise perhaps not percentage wise.

Exactly, if he signs close to Matthews but with a 10 percent bigger cap and longer term, it really isn't "close".

 

[arso40]

My number assumes the cap rises above what was expected when Draisaiti signed. If the floated numbers are correct that's an addition 5 percent on top of what was expected. So that puts Drai money at 14.7 using the same percentage, which people don't commute is all that matters to the agents. So Marner at 2 mil below isn't exactly outlandish on a max deal, is it? Internally too, with Matthews at 13 on a short term deal, how does Marner stack up for 8 years with a 10 percent cap increase over when Matthews signed? His 13 last year would be 14.3 this, so again percentage wise where does that put Marner? Guys here with their childish laugh emojis, aren't computing a quickly rising cap, percentages, if the PA will allow for more than the 5 percent agreed rise, then Marner's agent will re-gig the percentages. So away, but the game may be changing as this season unfolds and the cap changes. Of course, as Friedman reported, maybe it doesn't go up as much. Again, I'm assuming it does.


Exactly, if he signs close to Matthews but with a 10 percent bigger cap and longer term, it really isn't "close".

He should not see a number starting with 13 with this team regardless of cap percentage or years he’s taking we have 2 1st line right wingers if he’s coming in at 12.5 or less than sure

 

[DarkKnight]

He should not see a number starting with 13 with this team regardless of cap percentage or years he’s taking we have 2 1st line right wingers if he’s coming in at 12.5 or less than sure

Dude, you can't just fluff off a potential 10 percent cap uptick, that's a big factor here. If it stays as expected sure, but you add the additional floated and absolutely it gets closer to that range. I still think 12.5 is the number, perhaps it just looks a touch 'more palatable if we consider the cap increase. I'd add too, Matthews only taking 4 years at that number was a huge win, with the cap slated to rise over those years, he's positioned himself for another massive pay day. If Marner locks up for 8, the money won't be far off. Then again maybe he only does a 4 year deal, might be best for everyone.

 

[arso40]

Dude, you can't just fluff off a potential 10 percent cap uptick, that's a big factor here. If it stays as expected sure, but you add the additional floated and absolutely it gets closer to that range. I still think 12.5 is the number, perhaps it just looks a touch 'more palatable if we consider the cap increase. I'd add too, Matthews only taking 4 years at that number was a huge win, with the cap slated to rise over those years, he's positioned himself for another massive pay day. If Marner locks up for 8, the money won't be far off. Then again maybe he only does a 4 year deal, might be best for everyone.

We need Matthews Marner is a luxury valuable as well but still a luxury if we’re really trying to build a culture here then not getting taken to the cleaners by him twice would be ideal we got Knies and the kids coming up soon we gotta win some negotiations with our leaders

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner is not leaving Toronto, and he is not going to be making under $11 million. The Leafs' salary structure pretty much guarantees that it will be somewhere around $12.5 million per season, give or take a few hundred thousand

I can't fathom that Treliving would be stupid enough to let Marner walk, but I wish we had signed him already. His contract is going to be based on cap hit percentage, and I wish we had gotten ahead of it before this 97m cap talk.

Seriously? Dubas rebuilt our defense but because Tre let Holl go as a UFA he destroyed it first? Are you comparing our current defense to anything that Dubas had built? I wasn't a big fan of Tre coming in....but he has done a great job on the backend with a good UFA goalie pick up and the D as well. I have to give him that.

I didn't care about him letting any particular player walk. I cared about him completely abandoning defense. We should have been addressing defense last year, with a couple aging players and losses to injury, trade, and free agency, and yet his big solution was to add a couple of the defensively worst defensemen in the league. Then, replace good defensive forwards with some of the defensively worst forwards in the league. Then, add rookies. Then, forget about PKers. No surprise we dropped to poor defensive results we haven't seen since early Matthews era. Not to mention his misguided overcorrection at the deadline to kill our transition. Zero competent plan.

This year has been much better, and our defense is much closer to where it was. He added an actual top-4 defenseman in Tanev this time, and OEL has also really had an unexpected resurgence. He required a big cap raise and borrowing cap from the future to do it, and he had a couple misses too, but got to give him credit for bringing the defense back this year. Stolarz has been solid so far too.

We dont have the same definition and " made it good "

I consider taking one of the worst defensive teams in the league and turning them into one of the best defensive teams in the league "making it good". I'm not sure what other definition there could be, but your incorrect comments about drafting/deadlines aside, if you think late 30s Hainsey to Brodie was a downgrade, we most certainly do have different definitions of good. That is a wild take.

Dubas built D to have succes in regular season but for me tre build D to have succes in playoff.

Except we had our worst defensive results in half a decade in the playoffs last year, and we were great defensively in the playoffs prior to that.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

I think it will go down the same as the Nylander contract. 12.5-13 would be a good deal with the cap rising.

Meh

Personally wouldn’t want to go over 12

I know he won’t go under 11.5, cuz nylander

12 x 8 = 13.7x7, if someone is willing to pay him that, then they can

I said the same for nylander, who tf can give him that 8th year, we have an advantage so the caphit on 8 years should reflect that

In an ideal world nylander is around 9.5-10x8 and Marner at 11-11.5x8, but with how we screwed up with nylander, I don’t wanna make the same mistake with marner

 

[ToneDog]

Dude, you can't just fluff off a potential 10 percent cap uptick, that's a big factor here. If it stays as expected sure, but you add the additional floated and absolutely it gets closer to that range. I still think 12.5 is the number, perhaps it just looks a touch 'more palatable if we consider the cap increase. I'd add too, Matthews only taking 4 years at that number was a huge win, with the cap slated to rise over those years, he's positioned himself for another massive pay day. If Marner locks up for 8, the money won't be far off. Then again maybe he only does a 4 year deal, might be best for everyone.

The cap is expected to go to $92m next year. At his last cap % what does that give him. Then ask yourself is he worth the same cap hit, less or more? Given they f***ed up the Nylander deal, they do not have much wiggle room for Marner. This team is cursed.

Meh

Personally wouldn’t want to go over 12

I know he won’t go under 11.5, cuz nylander

12 x 8 = 13.7x7, if someone is willing to pay him that, then they can

I said the same for nylander, who tf can give him that 8th year, we have an advantage so the caphit on 8 years should reflect that

In an ideal world nylander is around 9.5-10x8 and Marner at 11-11.5x8, but with how we screwed up with nylander, I don’t wanna make the same mistake with marner

This. Also signing him before the playoffs, locks you into this core for the next few years. If they are punted early, management will look bigger fools that they are.