Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Dekes For Days]

"11 million dollar playmakers shouldnt be judged on shots or goals":
Also that 11 million dollar playmaker
First assist per/60
Tavares - 1.02
Domi - 1.01
Max Pac - 0.87
Matthews - 0.68
Kampf - 0.68
Marner - 0.65, league rank among forwards = 152nd

Marner leads the league in primary assists. He has 14. Next highest on our team is 5. These desperate attempts of yours are laughably horrible.

 

[arso40]

Most reasonable people assume Marner is getting a bit higher than Nylander. Let's say half a million is fair. So that's 12 using last year's comparison. Now factor in a cap that potentially goes up 10 percent(seems the PA is keen this year). What's 10 percent of 12? It's all about percentages so in that world 13-13.5 doesn't look as egregious as people using outdated salary cap scenarios argue. It also lends itself to the nonsense Kypreos was arguing, Marner absolutely gets that on the open market if the cap rises the maximum, there's no doubt whatsoever. Also true, we don't operate in a vacuum, guess what "cap space" crowd, be prepared to overpay through the yazoo to replace Marner, unless you're resigning yourself to mediocre fill ins. If you're going into free agency this summer, with this cap, you're getting paid and it is assuredly above true market value. This is why all this quibbling comparison stuff is ancient news, the cap is projected to really take off and if you're locking someone up long term with Marner's pedigree, it's big dollars.

The only caveat, if Marner truly wants to be a Leaf for life, he has to recognize that he does himself and enormous favour by shaving a few hundred thousand off his ask, don't extract the maximum. His agent is a rattlesnake though, might be a tough sell. Marner would probably need to be quite vocal. 12.75 on a max deal, with this cap, I'm fine with it. Matthews wasn't worth his shorter term, all up front, deal. Nylander wasn't worth his money last year, but you get it. Marner is in that environment we've created, you don't get to parse him out, it's internal as well as external realities.

Now if the cap only rises 5 percent, then 12.25 is a fair number, acceptable end game. Again, for the reasonable crowd, not the forever lame sarcasm retorts.

He also started the environment or greatly contributed to it in the first place but your right 12 something makes sense for him

 

[ZEBROA]

Fun Fact: if you take away all Wayne Gretzky's league leading 639 useless secondary assists... he would still have more goals, assists, and points than anyone else.

And if u took away everybodys second assists...

People cant for real value 2nd assist as much as 1st assists.

 

[DarkKnight]

He also started the environment or greatly contributed to it in the first place but your right 12 something makes sense for him

Disagree, Dubas running to Europe to make sure Willie's RFA, no rights, feeling weren't hurt started this. Also the JT contract. Also the Matthews contract. It's all a continuum and that's why Nylander got paid last year too. Matthews money on that short term is a joke. We're stuck with this core getting over paid, and the alternative is worse. Just hope the cap rising and JT off the books makes it more palatbale moving forward

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner leads the league in primary assists. He has 14. Next highest on our team is 5. These desperate attempts of yours are laughably horrible.

At 5v5, he's ranked 152nd. Marner is padding his stats on the man advantage, 3v3 and empty nets.

By the way, this is why I need to repeat myself so often because posters like you play ignorant. I'm always referencing 5v5 stats, so for anyone complaining about me repeating myself, take note.

It’s funny how certain Marner supporters used to point to his 5v5 stats as proof he’s a top player. Now, they conveniently ignore those same stats.

I’ve always pointed out that his strong 5v5 numbers were largely because he played eith arguably the greatest 5v5 goal scorer the NHL has ever seen.

Well... Matthews is hurt, and now Marner's 5v5 stats are pathetic, including his primary assists.

 

[arso40]

Disagree, Dubas running to Europe to make sure Willie's RFA, no rights, feeling weren't hurt started this. Also the JT contract. Also the Matthews contract. It's all a continuum and that's why Nylander got paid last year too. We're stuck with this core getting over paid, and the alternative is worse. Just hope the cap rising and JT off the books makes it more palatbale moving forward

6.9 is hardly even close To 10.9 11 or 11.6 but agreed jts contract in fairness is the beginning but he’s a centermen as was Matthews high end but comparable to comparables Marner was an anomaly that screwed us

 

[ACC1224]

And if u took away everybodys second assists...

People cant for real value 2nd assist as much as 1st assists.

Why not?
Quite often the second assist is the important part of the play.

People diminish based on who earns it.

 

[DarkKnight]

6.9 is hardly even close To 10.9 11 or 11.6 but agreed jts contract in fairness is the beginning but he’s a centermen as was Matthews high end but comparable to comparables Marner was an anomaly that screwed us

Yep, but recall how it was perceived at the time. Marner took less money and quite importantly an extra year of UFA. How anyone can argue Matthews getting max, all signing bonus AND hitting UFA at 26 wasn’t as bad as anything escapes me. And Matthews extracted max again this time.

 

[Antropovsky]

Disagree, Dubas running to Europe to make sure Willie's RFA, no rights, feeling weren't hurt started this. Also the JT contract. Also the Matthews contract. It's all a continuum and that's why Nylander got paid last year too. Matthews money on that short term is a joke. We're stuck with this core getting over paid, and the alternative is worse. Just hope the cap rising and JT off the books makes it more palatbale moving forward

Complaining about Jts contract lol... yet the same posters complaining about JTs contract want to pay Marner, similar or more cap % than Tavares was given at the same age and possibly an extra year and don't think it will age worse?

 

[arso40]

Yep, but recall how it was perceived at the time. Marner took less money and quite importantly an extra year of UFA. How anyone can argue Matthews getting max, all signing bonus AND hitting UFA at 26 wasn’t as bad as anything escapes me.

How could you suggest it was ever perceived that he took less money?Matthews should have been signed to 8 years for sure dubas isn’t the sharpest that’s on clear display but in no world should marners contract for a year more be a couple hundred thousand less than our number 1 franchise center come on my friend

 

[Antropovsky]

6.9 is hardly even close To 10.9 11 or 11.6 but agreed jts contract in fairness is the beginning but he’s a centermen as was Matthews high end but comparable to comparables Marner was an anomaly that screwed us

Tavares was also a UFA.

Marner and Matthews RFA contracts arent the same either. If Matthews wanted more as a RFA, he couldve got it easily as an offersheet. Marner waited for offersheets and took the most he could get, which was from the Leafs.

Marner squeezed out every last cent he could, while Matthews didnt.

 

[Dekes For Days]

5v5 he's 152nd.

He has the most primary assists in the entire league.
Almost triple anybody else on the team.
5v5, he has the best primary assist rate in the entire league since 2018.
Your arguments are bad.

 

[DarkKnight]

How could you suggest it was ever perceived that he took less money?Matthews should have been signed to 8 years for sure dubas isn’t the sharpest that’s on clear display but in no world should marners contract for a year more be a couple hundred thousand less than our number 1 franchise center come on my friend

I've never liked Marner's contract. I also don't like conveniently parsing out Marner, when the GM overpaid everyone. Context matters. Yes he was over paid, his agent went for the jugular and got it, that's on the GM. Was he a free agent then? This environment is on Dubas, player agents do their jobs. Having said that I do hope Marner recognizes the perception in this market and leaves something on the table.

 

[ZEBROA]

Why not?
Quite often the second assist is the important part of the play.

People diminish based on who earns it.

To many times it is not IMO. Extreme case:One pass to the Sedins(and the like duos) and 2min later they score a goal, while third assist player watch them over a min from the bench.

I guess Marner has most 1st assist so not against him or any playmaker . Just a overall opinion. My fav playmaker P Forsberg probably had most 2nd assists.

 

[Antropovsky]

He has the most primary assists in the entire league.
Almost triple anybody else on the team.
5v5, he has the best primary assist rate in the entire league since 2018.
Your arguments are bad.

lol ive shown many times. Matthews led rhe league in g/60 in both of his first two seasons. He played with Marleau, Johnsson and Kapanen.

Anyone who plays big minutes with Matthews will collect alot of primary assists. Just look at Domi last year. Marners primary points are significantly lower with Tavares vs Matthews. And its not like Tavares isnt a fantastic goal scoring center either. If Marner was really a 11 million playmaker, he and Tavares should be raking in points 5v5.

He also plays on a top PP with Tavares and Nylander, along with Matthews who are also top NHL goal scorers.

FInally... how many goals has this this incredible 11 million dollar playmaker set up this year 5v5 with great passes? Why is he suddenly struggling to produce, conveniently when Matthews is out?

Truthfully, i see Marners linemates setting him up 5v5 more than the other way around.

 

[ACC1224]

To many times it is not IMO. Extreme case:One pass to the Sedins(and the like duos) and 2min later they score a goal, while third assist player watch them over a min from the bench.

I guess Marner has most 1st assist so not against him or any playmaker . Just a overall opinion. My fav playmaker P Forsberg probably had most 2nd assists.

I don't know that anyone would really pay that much attention to it, points are points.

There have been a couple obvious examples lately.
Matthews win the face off forward, passes to Marner, Knies scores. Matthews second assist was the whole play.
Marner strips McDavid, puck goes to Tavares, McMann scores. Marners second assist was the whole play.

I'm sure we could come up with 100's . The whole thing is stupid and as mentioned it's just an attempt(poor one at that) to diminish the player.

 

[Stephen]

Trying to find a unit rate for primary and secondary assists ain’t it guys.

Marner should be paid like a top 10ish player in the game. Don’t need to be precise to the last dollar, nor does he need to be precisely pegged to the Matthews or Nylander dollar or whatever. The man has enough money to take a $250K-$500K PR win here.

 

[Confucius]

Fun Fact: if you take away all Wayne Gretzky's league leading 639 useless secondary assists... he would still have more goals, assists, and points than anyone else.

Fun fact
Gretzky has 91 game winning goals, the rest is useless stat padding
Mathews has 61 already

 

[Skullz]

Just extend him already. Cap is rising, and playoff failure or not, he is a top five winger in the NHL.

8 x 12.5 (max). Earned some goodwill back by taking less than he could.

 

[Dekes For Days]

lol ive shown many times. Matthews led rhe league in g/60 in both of his first two seasons. He played with Marleau, Johnsson and Kapanen.
Anyone who plays big minutes with Matthews is gonna pick up alot od primary assists. Look at Domi last year.
He also plays on a top PP with Tavares and Nylander who are damn good goal scorers too.

You show lots of things many times, but you don't understand them and your conclusions are consistently wrong. Even your information is not correct here. Matthews was 2nd to Guentzel in 5v5 G/60 in 2016-2017, and in Matthews' first two seasons, he primarily played with Nylander and Hyman. Marleau, Kapanen, and Johnsson were his 8th, 12th, and 17th most common linemates respectively, and he had barely any time with any of them.

You have shown one thing though. That if Marner has poor production, you will blast him for poor production (with no consideration of why), and if Marner has good production, you will still blast him and pretend it doesn't count because something something Matthews. Quick! Better find some obscure microstats to misrepresent him some more!

 

[Leafsfan74]

Fun Fact: if you take away all Wayne Gretzky's league leading 639 useless secondary assists... he would still have more goals, assists, and points than anyone else.

Yeah no one loved the game like Gretzky. When the playoff started, he was money.

Too bad he didn't win the Cup in L.A. His team robbed the Leafs of the perfect match up with the Habs where we probably matched up better. L.A would have gone nuts had they won that Finals in 93.

 

[ULF_55]

Fun fact
Gretzky has 91 game winning goals, the rest is useless stat padding
Mathews has 61 already

At marner's / Matthews' age Gretzky had 4 Cups.
At Nylander's age Messier had 5 Cups.

But the Leafs, this year, are, thus far, entertaining.

Maybe they'll have the supporting cast to make a dent in the playoffs.

Line 1: Gretz
Line 2: Messier

Leafs need their Esa Tikkanen.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Just extend him already. Cap is rising, and playoff failure or not, he is a top five winger in the NHL.

8 x 12.5 (max). Earned some goodwill back by taking less than he could.

Once he extended we can all breathe a sigh of relieve as any false belief in real changes will be tossed aside and we will know the Business As Usual MLSE have remained so.

As I said, win a Cup and then name your price.

Otherwise...

 

[Antropovsky]

You show lots of things many times, but you don't understand them and your conclusions are consistently wrong. Even your information is not correct here. Matthews was 2nd to Guentzel in 5v5 G/60 in 2016-2017, and in Matthews' first two seasons, he primarily played with Nylander and Hyman. Marleau, Kapanen, and Johnsson were his 8th, 12th, and 17th most common linemates respectively, and he had barely any time with any of them.

You have shown one thing though. That if Marner has poor production, you will blast him for poor production (with no consideration of why), and if Marner has good production, you will still blast him and pretend it doesn't count because something something Matthews. Quick! Better find some obscure microstats to misrepresent him some more!

Other posters have often called you out for this.

You latch onto minuscule errors and attack those, even when the main points still hold. This isn't anyone's day job, so it'absolutely ridiculous.

I've shared detailed stats with dates and years attached, but you didn’t respond. Instead, you wait until I’m quickly summarizing to pounce on tiny errors that don't change the argument.

My stats are filtered to ensure fair comparisons.

For example:
- In 2017, Matthews led the league in 5v5 goals per 60 among players with at least 1000 minutes played.
- Guentzel, by contrast, played around 500 minutes that year.
- Even if Matthews was 2nd.. who cares lol, it doesn't change the point.

You Marner supporters and your moving goalposts: you dismiss stats unfavorable to Marner as having "too small a sample size" but ignore sample size when it helps your argument. Marner played 500 mins with Tavares and I was told it's too small a sample size. Yet... Guentzals 500 mins 5v5 g/60 is okay to use and compare to players playing 1000-1200 mins.

The argument still stands:

Matthews led the league in 5v5 goals per 60 in two of his first three seasons without Marner as his linemate. In his third year, he ranked 6th in 5v5 goal scoring and 11th in points per 60 while primarily playing with Marleau, Johnsson, and Kapanen. As his linemates. He was significantly more productive goal scoring with Domi last year than he was with Marner.

Last year Domi had 9 primary assists 5v5 with Matthews in 209 mins.

Marner has 16 primary assists in 720 mins.

If Domi wouldve played 720 mins at his primary assist pace with Matthews, that would be 31 primary assists. Double Marners!

Additionally, It's reasonable to expect a player to be more productive in their mid-20s than in their early years. Matthews was the leagues best 5v5 per 60 in his first few NHL years WITHOUT Marner, its reasonable to expect that Matthews would be even better in his prime when Marner began playing with him.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Why not?
Quite often the second assist is the important part of the play.

People diminish based on who earns it.

Occasionally even the third assist is the best one, or the goal is the easiest play.

Yep, but recall how it was perceived at the time. Marner took less money and quite importantly an extra year of UFA. How anyone can argue Matthews getting max, all signing bonus AND hitting UFA at 26 wasn’t as bad as anything escapes me. And Matthews extracted max again this time.

The perception was different because Marner re-signed right before the season, which was also shortly after getting widely destroyed on social media for appearing greedy. Right after that Marner and his agent tried to mitigate the backlash by coming out with the story of Marner always wanting to remain a Leaf despite getting offer sheets in July, a claim which has never been confirmed by another team.


Since it's been clearly established the Marner camp only used teammates as comparables last time, it stands to reason they'll do the same this time. So I'm predicting 4 years @ something approaching 13 with a bonus structure similar to Matthews once again.