Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Roo]

If you keep Marner and Tavares (as many expect), how much do you have left for Knies after Woll and McCabe get their raises? Our bottom 6 is a black hole as it stands and if they are punted in round #1, you can't run it back and seriously think the outcome will be any different.

I am fine with resigning Marner at the right price. Unfortunately what he thinks is the right price, nobody except the Leafs will pay. Same was true for 88.

Easy decision for me, you be ready to walk from Tavares. If he takes a sweetheart deal to stay, we consider it. But those other raises come from the guy who will be in his mid-30s. Now, that creates another gap for us to fill if he doesn't take a sweetheart deal, but I don't see upgrading our 3rd liners with Marner's cap being a net positive for us offensively. Besides, all we need to do to get offense from our 3rd line is to spread our talent once AM34 is back. Minten and Cowan can also help us in the future.

 

[Antropovsky]

hahaha

Last 5 Marner and Matthews still 3 and 4th averaging basically the same kind of production

last 4 year they still both in top 4 2nd and 4th with pretty similar production...

Yeah for sure it's certainly 2019 the only reason of all this, you're right....... nice joke

Lol, you’re conveniently changing your questions? Did you not ask me to explain why Marner has more 5v5 P/60 than Matthews over the past 6 years?

The answer is that you cherry-picked 6 years because you know that going back 5, Matthews had more P/60 5v5.

The reason why Marner's is higher over 6 years is because Matthews played with 3rd-4th line, AHL, or retirement home talent, while Marner played with a 28-year-old, two-time Hart finalist who was also 17th in Hart voting that year. He also played with Hyman, whose talent levels have him on Team Canada’s roster this year.

A study by, I believe, Tlusty indicated that a player’s effectiveness is most affected by their linemates. As I’ve shown numerous times, nobody in the history of hockey has probably been more blessed with linemates since junior than Marner. Literally, elite junior linemates, to 2/3 of the Leafs’ first line from the year before (Bozak/JVR), to Kadri, JVR, and Bozak by his second NHL season—all first-line player talents and in their primes. His third season was with Tavares and Hyman, and then afterward, he’s ping-ponged between Matthews and Tavares while primarily playing with Matthews of the two. Even when one is injured, Marner draws the remaining #1 center while Nylander was given leftovers. Yet he still is yet to crack 100 points.

 

[Nineteen67]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1857209822241763567

Zero.


I think he signs during the season, but will see.

Whatever the decision is, it’ll be judged by what he does in the playoffs.

 

[therealkoho]

I wouldn’t feel great about anything over Nylander tbh. But if he took 11.85 on an 8 year deal I’d be okay with that. If the number starts with a 12, I’ll be a little upset and hope it’s a short term deal

So a 150k is going to make you sour? Even if the guy commits to 8 yrs of the rest of his career to the Leafs, and yet 13.4m and a half hearted 4 yrs doesn't?

The TMLHC has given that guy everything he has asked for since the day he arrived and he still doesn't understand loyalty. You want the C, well its a bloody important thing, and it means a helluva lot more than just a personal trinket on your mantel, but yet 4 yrs is the limit you'll give the team and the city, because money is all that matters. If that's the way it is then give back the letter. In fact go ply your trade in San Jose. They seem to like guys who don't care about the letter nor win cups.

Something to think about;

Fraser Minten is the best player on the Marlies and he hasn't even broken in his game pants yet.

 

[DarkKnight]

Whatever the decision is, it’ll be judged by what he does in the playoffs.

No question there!

 

[therealkoho]

To be fair, his playoff production does mask some serious failings in the big games that matter. He does tighten up and shy away during crucial times, that's is reasonable comment and again the points sort of gloss over what happens at critical times. Now, having said that, Matthews has been equally disappointing in that regard, he makes the biggest bucks, he's big, and yet he doesn't enjoy the scorn from the ankle biters? It's that kind of disconnect that suggests irrational and disproportionate hatred.

Marner needs to be better, so do a lot of guys on this team. You need other guys to step up, guys with the shitty matchups and favourable zone starts. Dubas signed that contract, it's a shame he wasn't a better GM, because if he didn't cave like a cheap suit with Marner, perhaps he wouldn't be the lightning rod.

For me, I start every year with a new optimism. I've seen a million athletes breakthrough in sport, after years of defeat. You hope it clicks, for Mitch and Matthews, etc, and if I see things in their game I like, it provides some optimism. Cheering for failure says more about the commentator and I suspect it has translated into their "lives". Every day is opportunity, that's why we follow our teams, at least that's what I do. I am also an Eagles fans, and look how that finally turned out.

Just for conversations sake, do you remember the Knights Memorial cup domination? Every player on that wagon had both hands on the rope and Marner was pulling the hardest in order to not let his teammates down. Mitch I think is just one of those guys who withdraws when not everyone is on the same page, if the guys who are supposed to be up front aren't up front with him, that's when you get game 567 Mitch. The supposed big dog hasn't shown up so why should I(Mitch) mentality. If you know what I mean.

 

[DarkKnight]

Just for conversations sake, do you remember the Knights Memorial cup domination? Every player on that wagon had both hands on the rope and Marner was pulling the hardest in order to not let his teammates down. Mitch I think is just one of those guys who withdraws when not everyone is on the same page, if the guys who are supposed to be up front aren't up front with him, that's when you get game 567 Mitch. The supposed big dog hasn't shown up so why should I(Mitch) mentality. If you know what I mean.

Agreed, when you're playing with Matthews and he routinely looks around for someone else to take charge, it doesn't help. This is why I've always balked at parsing out Marner, Matthews has been a big disappoint. He's scored one goal his last two playoffs, puts a lot of pressure on everyone else. Mitch is to blame, but I don't see the Matthews thread this toxic, which is kind of laughable. Recall last year too, Matthews did have one dominant game in the playoffs and he suddenly was the next Messier here.

 

[therealkoho]

I think If they get a 2C and commit to spreading out the talent like they did against Tampa, I see them potentially making an oilers like run. The east is weak this year and we finally have some goaltending and competent D. Even if you look at the game against Washington they scored 5 goals, two. Called back. I think we need a center and one more winger . Have you been watching Marlies. Grebyokin is dominating. He’s an NHLer. He was an offensive guy in the KHL which is harder to score in than the AHL. His AHL numbers are really good this year to start too.



I hear you, but Lou Lam was the one who lied about the first contract. Dubas wasn’t the GM yet when Marner signed his ELC. But in hindsight leaving those negotiations to a rookie GM was a horrible decision.

I'm talking the second contracts. When in December Dubas told Marner that he didn't think he had 9m in the budget so how about 7.5 or so and only for 8 years, and then less than 2 months later handed Matthews the 5yr 11.6m deal, and that left Marner cold.

 

[thewave]

That's making the assumption that Marner and Nylander have tracked similarly pointswise for the entire length of their contracts, as opposed to the last two years only.

It's a results business. Recent results means the most and Nylander has been increasing in performance every year including POs.

What he did 5 years ago means nothing this year. Maybe the last couple seasons but that's about all and there is no way to break down Nylander as less than Marner.

 

[francis246]

So a 150k is going to make you sour? Even if the guy commits to 8 yrs of the rest of his career to the Leafs, and yet 13.4m and a half hearted 4 yrs doesn't?

The TMLHC has given that guy everything he has asked for since the day he arrived and he still doesn't understand loyalty. You want the C, well its a bloody important thing, and it means a helluva lot more than just a personal trinket on your mantel, but yet 4 yrs is the limit you'll give the team and the city, because money is all that matters. If that's the way it is then give back the letter. In fact go ply your trade in San Jose. They seem to like guys who don't care about the letter nor win cups.

Something to think about;

Fraser Minten is the best player on the Marlies and he hasn't even broken in his game pants yet.

It wouldn’t make me terribly upset if I’m being one hundred percent honest HAHA.

 

[ULF_55]

Just for conversations sake, do you remember the Knights Memorial cup domination? Every player on that wagon had both hands on the rope and Marner was pulling the hardest in order to not let his teammates down. Mitch I think is just one of those guys who withdraws when not everyone is on the same page, if the guys who are supposed to be up front aren't up front with him, that's when you get game 567 Mitch. The supposed big dog hasn't shown up so why should I(Mitch) mentality. If you know what I mean.

I've maintained he'll be re-signed, regardless of playoffs.

It will be more than Nylander.

Term remains the unknown.

It's been nice watching without Matthews in the line-up, to see his impact without the Rocket shooter.

Yeah, they've been more dependent on the PP to score, but loading up Knies-Matthews-marner hasn't exactly taken off this year yet. Just looking at actual results not diving into expected results ... Standings points table only has actual results, which they use to decide who goes in the playoffs.

The game against Washington was a good example a team that decided to put in the effort in the 3rd. period. Berube throwing out the top 2 lines over and over again, showed they do have the horses, although a real center rather than Domi/Nylander quasi-center would be nice. But I suppose it did work for them.

It does look these lines could work (no particular order):
McMann-Tavares-marner
Knies-Domi-Nylander
?-Matthews-?

 

[ACC1224]

Do we know this to be true? Why are we speaking in absolutes? They gave Nylander an extension before the playoffs. Do I think it’s right? No, but I won’t be surprised if he’s signed to an extension mid season

I'd be surprised if he's not.

 

[arso40]

I'd be surprised if he's not.

I wouldn’t be there’s no rush

 

[ToneDog]

I wouldn’t be there’s no rush

Unless Mitchy offers to sign a deal that is too good to be true, you wait until after the playoffs. It's not like any other team can offer more money, term and bonuses on July 1st.

If he wants to stay (see Sam Reinhart), let's see how he and the team do in April. If they bow out quickly, I doubt the guy who claims he is not here to sell jerseys will want to run it back next year.

 

[ACC1224]

I wouldn’t be there’s no rush

Being in a rush has nothing to do with it

 

[Antropovsky]

---

Just for conversations sake, do you remember the Knights Memorial cup domination? Every player on that wagon had both hands on the rope and Marner was pulling the hardest in order to not let his teammates down. Mitch I think is just one of those guys who withdraws when not everyone is on the same page, if the guys who are supposed to be up front aren't up front with him, that's when you get game 567 Mitch. The supposed big dog hasn't shown up so why should I(Mitch) mentality. If you know what I mean.

The NHL is grown men, Junior hockey Marner is not comparably as small, given his age and physical development at the time. Also its not unusual for players to dominate Jt while be small and on the slow side, however, often those types of players have more difficulty translating that offense to the NHL.

 

[arso40]

Being in a rush has nothing to do with it

It does your rewarding nothing is he going to repeat last year ? We won’t know til the playoffs

 

[ACC1224]

It does your rewarding nothing is he going to repeat last year ? We won’t know til the playoffs

You're assuming the decision hasn't already been made.

 

[Gabriel426]

On the contrary imo. The Marner hate is still ongoing because of a few diehards that still won't shut up about his playoff performance no matter how well he's playing right now.

One guy in particular went as far as bringing up Marner not producing 5 on 5 in a game ythat JUST finished where he scored the game tying goal on the PP and assisting on the GWG because it was 3.on 3 in OT.

The hate has completely blinded some.

pretty much

 

[sunstersun]

You're assuming the decision hasn't already been made.

You're assuming the decision has been made?

 

[ACC1224]

You're assuming the decision has been made?

Yes

 

[Leafs87]

Curious what his faith is come free agency. I’d assume he wants more than Willy, close to Matthews again. Will be a tough pill to swallow, but losing him for free may be worse…

 

[thusk]

Lol, you’re conveniently changing your questions? Did you not ask me to explain why Marner has more 5v5 P/60 than Matthews over the past 6 years?

The answer is that you cherry-picked 6 years because you know that going back 5, Matthews had more P/60 5v5.

The reason why Marner's is higher over 6 years is because Matthews played with 3rd-4th line, AHL, or retirement home talent, while Marner played with a 28-year-old, two-time Hart finalist who was also 17th in Hart voting that year. He also played with Hyman, whose talent levels have him on Team Canada’s roster this year.

A study by, I believe, Tlusty indicated that a player’s effectiveness is most affected by their linemates. As I’ve shown numerous times, nobody in the history of hockey has probably been more blessed with linemates since junior than Marner. Literally, elite junior linemates, to 2/3 of the Leafs’ first line from the year before (Bozak/JVR), to Kadri, JVR, and Bozak by his second NHL season—all first-line player talents and in their primes. His third season was with Tavares and Hyman, and then afterward, he’s ping-ponged between Matthews and Tavares while primarily playing with Matthews of the two. Even when one is injured, Marner draws the remaining #1 center while Nylander was given leftovers. Yet he still is yet to crack 100 points.

last 6


last 5


last 4


The biggest difference on all those year between both is 0,05 pts/60... Considerating Marner played much more defensive situation than Matthews at 5v5...They basically scored at the same rate in last 6, last 5 or last 4... So No 2019 season doesn't changw absolutly anything statistically. If you had 2019, its the lowest number both had...

2- 2019-2020 is keefe 1st year and when Matthews and marner started to play together and he played the entire season with one of marner or nylander on his line. So trying to talk about time matthews played with marleau and whatever and marner with JT as answer when the year you talking about is just out of 6 years range, that's pretty hilarious.

 

[Confucius]

Curious what his faith is come free agency. I’d assume he wants more than Willy, close to Matthews again. Will be a tough pill to swallow, but losing him for free may be worse…

Well there was the talk JT took less to play for his team. I’d be betting Mitch is just as big a fan. 11 and he can name the length of the deal.

 

[Leafs87]

Well there was the talk JT took less to play for his team. I’d be betting Mitch is just as big a fan. 11 and he can name the length of the deal.

Doubt that even gets the conversation started. At minimum with would be equal to Willy.