Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Racer88]

Yes, Bennet most likely stays in Florida. He certainly would be a quality add to the Toronto roster though.

I believe the offers Mitch will get in free agency are gonna be very underwhelming to what he expects. NO GM in their right mind is paying that guy $14M AAV. NO f***ING WAY.

agreed 100%

 

[Antropovsky]

You need to state which stats or are all stays bad? Stats bad. Eye test good? I like eye test myself too.

Yep excellent season, 303rd overall in 5v5 goal scoring in the league. Tulsky research indicates players begin to regress around 30... imagine if Marner regressed from 0.5 g/60?... scary thought. Kerfoot scores at a better pace than Marner this year lol...and we know Kerfoots brick hands better than any fan.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Sam Bennett is ass. You want to give a guy who’s never scored 50 points in his career 7-8 million? You’d be the first person in the GDT stiring up shit.

I rather give that money to Boeser or Ehlers.

Yeah I don't get the love for Bennett at all. A 50 point guy doesn't move the needle much and in TO he'd get called and suspended for his obvious intent to injure plays so....

You need to state which stats or are all stays bad? Stats bad. Eye test good? I like eye test myself too.

Any stat that is attempting to demonstrate Domi being better than Marner is obviously baloney. I mean c'mon. Cherry picking is a thing.

 

[Mr_Fun]

Yeah I don't get the love for Bennett at all. A 50 point guy doesn't move the needle much and in TO he'd get called and suspended for his obvious intent to injure plays so....



Any stat that is attempting to demonstrate Domi being better than Marner is obviously baloney. I mean c'mon. Cherry picking is a thing.

A few of the anti Marner people come up with fair arguments and I don’t mind engaging with them or reading what they post. But I refuse to be a serious party to any of the absolute drivel posted in here.

 

[Gabriel426]

Sam Bennett is ass. You want to give a guy who’s never scored 50 points in his career 7-8 million? You’d be the first person in the GDT stiring up shit.

I rather give that money to Boeser or Ehlers.

Yeah I don't get the love for Bennett at all. A 50 point guy doesn't move the needle much and in TO he'd get called and suspended for his obvious intent to injure plays so....



Any stat that is attempting to demonstrate Domi being better than Marner is obviously baloney. I mean c'mon. Cherry picking is a thing.

Bennett is ass, so ass that he is on Team Canada ahead of Schef, Johnston, Stammer, PLD, and our own JT-who went to the Worlds after our annual first round exit to learn more lessons.

Like I said, I really don’t understand the fascination of bringing the top guys back when they showed time and time again that they just couldn’t do it.

 

[Smif]

Yep excellent season, 303rd overall in 5v5 goal scoring in the league. Tulsky research indicates players begin to regress around 30... imagine if Marner regressed from 0.5 g/60?... scary thought. Kerfoot scores at a better pace than Marner this year lol...and we know Kerfoots brick hands better than any fan.

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Funny how you completely ignored a page and a half of rebuttals and then you randomly post this.

Always bring the goods. Solid info and absolute truth bombs supported by evidence. The rebuttal will be some shift nonsense excuse or no response at all.

Remember this post thewave? Your bff never responded to anything afterwards because it was - "nonsense excuse or no response at all".

 

[Antropovsky]

Funny how you completely ignored a page and a half of rebuttals and then you randomly post this.


Remember this post thewave? Your bff never responded to anything afterwards because it was - "nonsense excuse or no response at all".

Okay I'll respond:

Here is your post:

Like I said, anyone can prove anything when you use a sample size of 4-6 games in an 82 game season. Every stat is tainted because one pariah in here has a biased perspective 100% of the time. They don't look for truth, they look for anything that supports their opinion.

4-6 games? How many times do I need to post this? Matthews produced more without Marner on his line both of the last two seasons. Not 4-6 games... the sample size is pretty much 50/50 over the last two seasons.

Matthews' production with and without Marner over 2023 and 2024:

With Marner (1260.16 minutes):
1.48 goals per 60, 2.43 points per 60

Without Marner (1126.77 minutes):
1.75 goals per 60, 2.81 points per 60

Projected over 1200 minutes (approx typ 5v5 mins over full season)
With Marner – 29.6 goals, 48.6 points
Without Marner – 35.09 goals, 56.26 points

If Marner is such an incredible playmaker that apparently doesnt need to be a scoring threat..then why is Matthews a better goal scorer without 11 million dollar playmaking Marner?

It doesn't add up.

 

[francis246]

Bennett is ass, so ass that he is on Team Canada ahead of Schef, Johnston, Stammer, PLD, and our own JT-who went to the Worlds after our annual first round exit to learn more lessons.

Like I said, I really don’t understand the fascination of bringing the top guys back when they showed time and time again that they just couldn’t do it.

Bennett is not going to be worth whatever contract he gets as a UFA. And who cares if he made team Canada? Are we talking about The maple Leafs or team Canada. The maple leafs struggle to score and you’re thinking of adding a guy who literally cannot score and he would get suspended as a maple leafs.

If Bennett was at his current contract that’s a no brainer add. At 7million plus, it’s a hell no for me. That would turn out to be a horrible contract in year 2.

I’ve mentioned before if you really want to get rid of Marner fine, but you better bring in goal scorers. And a couple bruisers who can chip in goals. There will be tons of guys who can do what Bennett does for the fraction of a cost and play a cleaner physical game.

Boeser would be worth the money more than Bennett IMO.

 

[leafs in five]

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I mean what kind of stats do you expect with 0 games played

 

[francis246]

Okay I'll respond:

Here is your post:



4-6 games? How many times do I need to post this? Matthews produced more without Marner on his line both of the last two seasons. Not 4-6 games... the sample size is pretty much 50/50 over the last two seasons.

Matthews' production with and without Marner over 2023 and 2024:

With Marner (1260.16 minutes):
1.48 goals per 60, 2.43 points per 60

Without Marner (1126.77 minutes):
1.75 goals per 60, 2.81 points per 60

Projected over 1200 minutes (approx typ 5v5 mins over full season)
With Marner – 29.6 goals, 48.6 points
Without Marner – 35.09 goals, 56.26 points

If Marner is such an incredible playmaker that apparently doesnt need to be a scoring threat..then why is Matthews a better goal scorer without 11 million dollar playmaking Marner?

It doesn't add up.

@Smif

The same guys who repeatedly tell us fancy stats don’t mean anything will be the same guys to like this post. It’s hypocritical. Also we are talking about a .30 increase. While it’s an uptick. It’s moderate.

This also doesn’t account for matchups, linemates, and deployment which could alter the data. Didn’t Jon Cooper or another coach say that when Marner is at his best they sometimes put their best d pairing or checking line against him? I’ll have to verify that. But I’d love to see the quality of opponent / match up when Matthews is separated from Marner vs when he is with. I would expect Matthews numbers to go up. If he’s playing with Domi and Knies for example, I don’t think he’s drawing the top defense and he sure as hell ain’t getting as many defensive zone starts, as compared to a Nylander, Tavares, Marner line for example. So again a lot more context is needed to analyze that data.

 

[leafs in five]

maybe Eric Tulsky will want to trade for Max Domi

 

[Gary Nylund]

@Smif

The same guys who repeatedly tell us fancy stats don’t mean anything will be the same guys to like this post. It’s hypocritical. Also we are talking about a .30 increase. While it’s an uptick. It’s moderate.

Goals/Points per 60 are anything but fancy stats. It's also pretty weird to dismiss this uptick as "moderate" when the fact that there is any uptick at all without Marner is a pretty big eye opener.

This also doesn’t account for matchups, linemates, and deployment which could alter the data. Didn’t Jon Cooper or another coach say that when Marner is at his best they sometimes put their best d pairing or checking line against him? I’ll have to verify that. But I’d love to see the quality of opponent / match up when Matthews is separated from Marner vs when he is with. I would expect Matthews numbers to go up. If he’s playing with Domi and Knies for example, I don’t think he’s drawing the top defense and he sure as hell ain’t getting as many defensive zone starts, as compared to a Nylander, Tavares, Marner line for example. So again a lot more context is needed to analyze that data.

More context is always nice, if you feel like doing some research and sharing it that would be great. Until you do though, this is just speculation and even if whatever context makes these numbers less shocking, the fact that there is an uptick without Marner still isn't a good look for wonder boy.

Be honest now, wouldn't you expect that the numbers would show that Matthews is much more productive with Marner than without?

 

[ToneDog]

Bennett is not going to be worth whatever contract he gets as a UFA. And who cares if he made team Canada? Are we talking about The maple Leafs or team Canada. The maple leafs struggle to score and you’re thinking of adding a guy who literally cannot score and he would get suspended as a maple leafs.

If Bennett was at his current contract that’s a no brainer add. At 7million plus, it’s a hell no for me. That would turn out to be a horrible contract in year 2.

I’ve mentioned before if you really want to get rid of Marner fine, but you better bring in goal scorers. And a couple bruisers who can chip in goals. There will be tons of guys who can do what Bennett does for the fraction of a cost and play a cleaner physical game.

Boeser would be worth the money more than Bennett IMO.

You are right, he will be overpaid but this guy is known to put up better numbers in the playoffs. He also brings the toughness this team lacks. With that, yes there is a risk he gets suspended. At the right price (6-7m) I'd be interested (over Tavares) like I was when Calgary made him available. Sadly Dubass chose Foligno. McMann Bennett and Nylander/Marner might be a strong line #2.

As for somebody you claim, literally cannot score.

Bennett 18 goals Marner 16 goals

Playoffs

Bennett 25 goals/85 games Marner 11 goals/57 games

 

[ToneDog]

@Smif

The same guys who repeatedly tell us fancy stats don’t mean anything will be the same guys to like this post. It’s hypocritical. Also we are talking about a .30 increase. While it’s an uptick. It’s moderate.

This also doesn’t account for matchups, linemates, and deployment which could alter the data. Didn’t Jon Cooper or another coach say that when Marner is at his best they sometimes put their best d pairing or checking line against him? I’ll have to verify that. But I’d love to see the quality of opponent / match up when Matthews is separated from Marner vs when he is with. I would expect Matthews numbers to go up. If he’s playing with Domi and Knies for example, I don’t think he’s drawing the top defense and he sure as hell ain’t getting as many defensive zone starts, as compared to a Nylander, Tavares, Marner line for example. So again a lot more context is needed to analyze that data.

I don't see any likes for that post.

 

[Confucius]

Yes, Bennet most likely stays in Florida. He certainly would be a quality add to the Toronto roster though.

I believe the offers Mitch will get in free agency are gonna be very underwhelming to what he expects. NO GM in their right mind is paying that guy $14M AAV. NO f***ING WAY.

So Marner to Pittsburgh is a lock.

 

[Smif]

I don't see any likes for that post.

Problem with Antro's post is that we were talking about Domi. He wanted to replace Marner with Domi because of a 4-6 game sample size last year.

Besides that, I don't like Matthews and Marner together, anyways. I agree that Marner defers to Matthews too much and plays differently when Matthews is hurt.

I'm also curious why Antro wouldn't use the same comparison using 24-25 data. I have an idea why but I'd like to see if my eye test matches the deep stats this year.

 

[studebaker17]

Goals/Points per 60 are anything but fancy stats. It's also pretty weird to dismiss this uptick as "moderate" when the fact that there is any uptick at all without Marner is a pretty big eye opener.

More context is always nice, if you feel like doing some research and sharing it that would be great. Until you do though, this is just speculation and even if whatever context makes these numbers less shocking, the fact that there is an uptick without Marner still isn't a good look for wonder boy.

Be honest now, wouldn't you expect that the numbers would show that Matthews is much more productive with Marner than without?

At one point I added up every point Mathews scored after Marner went down and when he came back but was on a different line . In every situation . Domi didn't factor into very many of his points . Bert factored into a lot more . Also a lot of Mathews points were on the pp away from Domi, and Marner was in a few of those points whe he came back .
Mathews was already on a heater before Marner went down and cont scoring at a ridiculous rate pretty much carrying his line for a few weeks . Not realistic to think Mathews would always be that dominant . Also way to short of a span to even call it a trend let alone say it's a stat .
This said , i still like them apart more .

 

[Smif]

@Smif

The same guys who repeatedly tell us fancy stats don’t mean anything will be the same guys to like this post. It’s hypocritical. Also we are talking about a .30 increase. While it’s an uptick. It’s moderate.

This also doesn’t account for matchups, linemates, and deployment which could alter the data. Didn’t Jon Cooper or another coach say that when Marner is at his best they sometimes put their best d pairing or checking line against him? I’ll have to verify that. But I’d love to see the quality of opponent / match up when Matthews is separated from Marner vs when he is with. I would expect Matthews numbers to go up. If he’s playing with Domi and Knies for example, I don’t think he’s drawing the top defense and he sure as hell ain’t getting as many defensive zone starts, as compared to a Nylander, Tavares, Marner line for example. So again a lot more context is needed to analyze that data.

I was the one that brought up the Jon Cooper interview. He mentioned JT and Marner were playing so well that he gave Hedman and his partner that matchup that night instead of the Matthews line.

I would also like to add Sh% into the equation as well. Because Matthews is such a streaky scorer I would imagine he has insane spikes in Sh% sometimes. For example as someone else brought up, he was on an absolute heater when Marner got hurt and started playing with Domi. It would really skew the numbers. I think it was for the month of March if I'm not mistaken.

 

[thewave]

Yep excellent season, 303rd overall in 5v5 goal scoring in the league. Tulsky research indicates players begin to regress around 30... imagine if Marner regressed from 0.5 g/60?... scary thought. Kerfoot scores at a better pace than Marner this year lol...and we know Kerfoots brick hands better than any fan.

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OMG that's horrific and accurate too. These facts make me feel scared for this organizations future if they pay Mitch big.

 

[thewave]

A few of the anti Marner people come up with fair arguments and I don’t mind engaging with them or reading what they post. But I refuse to be a serious party to any of the absolute drivel posted in here.

How can stats be anti Marner? Any stat that you don't agree with makes it an attack stat? Are we going to start calling them MEAN STATS?. Do we need to make a movie about this?

They are just stats. If Marner sucks a scoring goals he sucks at it. Domi has been terrible this year though.

 

[francis246]

Goals/Points per 60 are anything but fancy stats. It's also pretty weird to dismiss this uptick as "moderate" when the fact that there is any uptick at all without Marner is a pretty big eye opener.

More context is always nice, if you feel like doing some research and sharing it that would be great. Until you do though, this is just speculation and even if whatever context makes these numbers less shocking, the fact that there is an uptick without Marner still isn't a good look for wonder boy.

Be honest now, wouldn't you expect that the numbers would show that Matthews is much more productive with Marner than without?

lol what? You're not even making sense right now. Context is always needed when evaluating stats. I have no idea what you mean by speculation lol.

If you're going to post his numbers are better with and without Marner that is extremely vague. You need to account for different things like defensive zone starts vs offensive zone starts, what were the match ups they were facing? Was Matthews deployed more without vs Marner (I.E. extra shifts with the fourth line thus allowing him to feast against weaker matchups or was he just getting more shifts in general), was he taking less shifts, so he is more fresh? What was the quality of opponents during those stretches, if they are facing teams that were weaker in competition when he was away from Marner that would diminish the strength of posting those stats, if the Leafs were facing stronger compettion while the two were split, that would add strength to Antroprovski's argument... those are all things that would contribute to a potential uptick. Not just the fact that he is away from Marner. Posting stats without context is something that Antro and Mess usually do a lot and the reason they do that is because it's narrative based arguing. They know without context the stats/data set will usually fit whatever narrative they want told at the time.

 

[Suntouchable13]

It's not about raw stats. He is scoring at a 100 point pace during the season, but does he score at a 100 points pace in deciding playoff games? Not even close. Stop parading his amazing stats. Stats are for losers. Does he get it done during the most important games? No. And it's very sad how this core is all 27-28 years old and still have not gone on any kind of playoff run.

 

[thewave]

It's not about raw stats. He is scoring at a 100 point pace during the season, but does he score at a 100 points pace in deciding playoff games? Not even close. Stop parading his amazing stats. Stats are for losers. Does he get it done during the most important games? No. And it's very sad how this core is all 27-28 years old and still have not gone on any kind of playoff run.

I would gladly take a 6m dollar a year .60ppg player who goes up to .75ppg in the playoffs and is viewed as impactful over a 13m(lol) player like Marner that puts up 1.15ppg and .80ppg in the playoffs, .40ppg in elimination games.

It's actually so important that we should just have someone dedicated to seeing who are the most impactful playoff players and trade for them.

 

[GoonieFace]

I look at it like this:

A. Marner at 13mil (if lucky) or

B. Bennett 7m (not him necessarily, but similar type + McCabe level (4.5m) + $1.5mil in space.

I’m taking option B. I think creating better depth is more suitable to building a cup level team, especially since Option A hasn’t really worked out so far.

 

[Smif]

I would gladly take a 6m dollar a year .60ppg player who goes up to .75ppg in the playoffs and is viewed as impactful over a 13m(lol) player like Marner that puts up 1.15ppg and .80ppg in the playoffs, .40ppg in elimination games.

It's actually so important that we should just have someone dedicated to seeing who are the most impactful playoff players and trade for them.

There was a guy who did something similar awhile ago but it wasn't just playoff scoring, he looked for the most clutch players. What he did was he ranked every goal scored with a points system. Every goal was worth one point but you got additional points for how close the game was and less if it was a meaningless blowout. Also got more points for scoring late in the third. I can't remember many of the details but back then he had Justin Williams as the most clutch player. I would imagine teams have something like this.