Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Racer88]

Meanwhile Colorado just traded Rantanen...

Some GM’ are not terrified to mix up their team in the hopes of getting better.
I would offer Tavares a deal at 4.5, jettison Marner and have 10’s of millions to retool the team.
It sucks to let an asset go for nothing but that’s on Dubas for the full no trade/no move

 

[Dekes For Days]

While true, we were the #1 seed with a .625 season winning percentage while they were the last seed with a .429 winning percentage.

It should also be noted that what a team 'is' changes pretty drastically when they're getting 0.901 goaltending vs. when they're getting 0.932 goaltending. They didn't have their best player for the majority of the regular season, let alone playing like that.

Marner taking two stupid delay of game penalties in game 7 to boot.

There weren't any delay of game penalties in game 7. You may be thinking of the one delay of game penalty in game 6 (three minutes before Marner drew a penalty back), that we only remember because of a bad challenge.

 

[DarkKnight]

As expected, the cap is going to rise rapidly the next three years. Marner at 13 looks less and less egregious. Also, expect free agents to get way over paid, so this idea we can go find value elsewhere, less likely. We can sign Marner, AND have room for other players with the cap acceleration. Three big contracts are fine.

Just sign him.

 

[francis246]

We need to not put people needing new contracts with Matthews. Knies numbers with Matthews are incredible but not very good without him.

Absolutely, his production without Matthews has suffered a lot. I know you’ve been pushing it a lot but I do wonder what a Knies, Domi, Matthews line could do. Domi is similar to Marner but more physical and a better skater, so maybe their forecheck is a lot more effective. Hopefully they give it a try because it could be magic.

At the end of the day I hope Knies takes a deal that solidifies him as a leaf. He’s gonna be an important piece, he’ll get his money one way or another but I hope he thinks more about winning here than just the money.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I believe at no time in history in the cap era has any team spent 50% of their cap on 2 wingers and 2 centres

Because that's an absurdly specific scenario that no team has had any real opportunity to do. Not to mention the fact that teams used now illegal cap circumventing contracts to avoid that for half the cap era.

And when teams have historically signed a few players to a high percentage of the cap, that percentage has dropped pretty quickly through every point in the cap era except the ~5 year period directly after our signings. That's really warped our view. Say we re-sign Marner and Tavares for what, 20m? That's 45m total. That would be below 40% by just 2027.

as far as the rest of the team you are right however the rest has been rebuilt multiple times by Dubas and Treliving with no playoff success, multiple coaches and assistant coaches as well. This core might be talented individuals but they just do not work together

Changing other things and getting the same result does not automatically make the issue the core. That's just falling back into the correlation=causation trap again.

 

[Menzinger]

Tre's.challenge will be to make sure they use the current cap for aav co.parsbles and not the hypothetical cap 3 seasons from now.

With that said,.today's formal projections have likely been the last nail in guaranteeing a Marner extension - unless the player himself desires a change of scenery

with these cap projections Mitch is getting 13+

I think there's a decent chance he'll have a higher aav than Matthews but with 8 years of term.

 

[Racer88]

Because that's an absurdly specific scenario that no team has had any real opportunity to do. Not to mention the fact that teams used now illegal cap circumventing contracts to avoid that for half the cap era.

And when teams have historically signed a few players to a high percentage of the cap, that percentage has dropped pretty quickly through every point in the cap era except the ~5 year period directly after our signings. That's really warped our view. Say we re-sign Marner and Tavares for what, 20m? That's 45m total. That would be below 40% by just 2027.

Changing other things and getting the same result does not automatically make the issue the core. That's just falling back into the correlation=causation trap again.

I’m pretty sure the common denominator is the problem.
I agree that the cap allocation is absurd.
Look, the bottom line is no matter what or who around then has changed they still lose. Everything else including correlation =causationis just word salad to try and detract from failure

 

[Racer88]

Tre’s challenge will be to use the cap to improve the team not just dump it on some of the players that have not got the job done.
Marner or Tavares should not get 1 Penney more then they would have got before the increase announcements. To give them a higher raise would be dumb and negate any help the increased cap would give us

 

[Eternal Leaf]

The world isn't as black and white as you want it to be, and the NHL playoff system is even more gray. If two great teams face each other in the first round, only one can advance, but it doesn't make the other bad. Playoff series outcomes and what round you get to is impacted by more than just how good a team is. Great teams lose early all the time. Some of the most dominant teams of all time lost in the first round. And all great teams except one lose every year. We squabble over meaningless participation trophies. As Pastrnak said in the Prime series, "it doesn't matter at the end, you know? If you don't get the cup, it doesn't matter who moves on from the first round".

We haven't had the core four for 8 years, we haven't had this cap model for 8 years, and we haven't been a particularly great team for 8 years, and yet everybody lumps the losses together and tries to pretend they justify whatever preconceived idea they have, without the whole justifying part. We've only even had more points than our opponent in 3 of those 8 seasons, and every one of those teams except the one we beat went to the cup final (and 2 of the 3 won cups in surrounding years). If you put value in playoff outcomes as you say, then you'd have to acknowledge that we lost to some great teams.

And I know you'll just write it off as excuses, but when great teams experience what we've experienced, they historically struggle to win series, just like we did. We've just experienced a lot of it, and in the first round, and especially in our best years. When your core is good enough to get you into the playoffs every year since you were the worst team in the league, and then you run into some of those issues, you can rack up a jarring record. And I get it, it sucks, but not everything that correlates with a rare event is the cause of that rare event. That record holds no meaning moving forward. Every season is new, and getting rid of some of our best players will not help us advance in the playoffs or, much more importantly, win a cup.

I'm afraid It's pretty black and white when you have that many early exits in a row.

Let's assume we accept they're winning to the best in the business, isn't it wise to look at what those teams are doing compared to the Leafs? Are they putting all of their money into a core four like the Leafs or have they divided their funds better?

Why do the Leafs core's numbers drop dramatically on the big stage while those teams get most of their guys to perform? Aren't those teams also up against a "good" team in the Leafs?

I don't think there's anything wrong with wanting to change the core nor is it a major sin. If the group fails again this year, it's time for a change to the core.

 

[OddyOh]

Does anyone really see a team with Matthews and McDavid both on it though?

McDonald’s does!

 

[Dreakmur]

As expected, the cap is going to rise rapidly the next three years. Marner at 13 looks less and less egregious. Also, expect free agents to get way over paid, so this idea we can go find value elsewhere, less likely. We can sign Marner, AND have room for other players with the cap acceleration. Three big contracts are fine.

Just sign him.

You don't think Marner's camp is going to negotiate like the cap is already 100+ million?

 

[ToneDog]

$95m x 13.5% = $12.81m. Fair for both parties and might gain some goodwill from the fans.

6 goals since November 30 (2 EN, hattrick vs Wings, breakaway vs Jarry). He's part of the reason this team lacks goal scoring.

Willie, 6 goals since Dec 23. Yikes, how can Mr. Breakaway be worse than Marner in that stretch?

Matthews, 15 goals in Dec. and Jan.

Team 37 GF in 13 games in January (7 vs Habs, 6 vs Bruins, 5 vs TB, 4 vs NJ)
48 GF in 15 games in December

 

[ToneDog]

As expected, the cap is going to rise rapidly the next three years. Marner at 13 looks less and less egregious. Also, expect free agents to get way over paid, so this idea we can go find value elsewhere, less likely. We can sign Marner, AND have room for other players with the cap acceleration. Three big contracts are fine.

Just sign him.

You were right wrt to the projected cap being higher. I'd still wait until after the playoffs because nobody can pay him more, unless he's be willing to sign for a little less today. Signing him now at $13m or waiting until the end of the playoffs might put extra pressure on him to perform in the playoffs.

Signing him now for $12.5-$12.8m might alleviate some of the pressure as it will look like he put the team ahead of his wallet. As Bieksa said, he would take a little less to gain some goodwill from the fans.

 

[All Mod Cons]

$95m x 13.5% = $12.81m. Fair for both parties and might gain some goodwill from the fans.

6 goals since November 30 (2 EN, hattrick vs Wings, breakaway vs Jarry). He's part of the reason this team lacks goal scoring.

Willie, 6 goals since Dec 23. Yikes, how can Mr. Breakaway be worse than Marner in that stretch?

Matthews, 15 goals in Dec. and Jan.

Team 37 GF in 13 games in January (7 vs Habs, 6 vs Bruins, 5 vs TB, 4 vs NJ)
48 GF in 15 games in December

Is 6 goals since Dec 23rd worse than 6 goals since Nov 30th?

 

[thewave]

You don't think Marner's camp is going to negotiate like the cap is already 100+ million?

Who cares. Just final offer him right now. The hard line is this for me.

1. Your endorsements get more than halved if you leave.

2. You were over compensated on the last deal. Did not dominate at a level of your peers in playoffs.

3. Nylander was under compensated. Yes you overall you are a better regular season player and equivalent in the playoffs essentially.

4. You are not a Matthews comparable. He has the Rockets, is a C and is the C of the team.

5. Rantanen was traded for not accepting 11.75m. You are not at his level.

Options.

A. 4 year 12.5m with the NMC removed the final year (Limited ok)

B. 8 year 13m with the NMC removed years 5 6 7 8 (Limited ok)

C. 8 year 13.25m no NMC (Limited ok)

D. 8 year 12m NMC

E. WAIVE and Trade

 

[hullsy47]

Who cares. Just final offer him right now. The hard line is this for me.

1. Your endorsements get more than halved if you leave.

2. You were over compensated on the last deal. Did not dominate at a level of your peers in playoffs.

3. Nylander was under compensated. Yes you overall you are a better regular season player and equivalent in the playoffs essentially.

4. You are not a Matthews comparable. He has the Rockets, is a C and is the C of the team.

5. Rantanen was traded for not accepting 11.75m. You are not at his level.

Options.

A. 4 year 12.5m with the NMC removed the final year (Limited ok)

B. 8 year 13m with the NMC removed years 5 6 7 8 (Limited ok)

C. 8 year 13.25m no NMC (Limited ok)

D. 8 year 12m NMC

E. WAIVE and Trade

give him his final offer before 4 nations .

 

[thewave]

give him his final offer before 4 nations .

Exactly. Shit or get off the pot. So tired of this drama, Rantanen settled the value. 12m is the legit ceiling, too much even.

The overpays are just to get rid of the NMC.

 

[IPS]

Who cares. Just final offer him right now. The hard line is this for me.

1. Your endorsements get more than halved if you leave.

2. You were over compensated on the last deal. Did not dominate at a level of your peers in playoffs.

3. Nylander was under compensated. Yes you overall you are a better regular season player and equivalent in the playoffs essentially.

4. You are not a Matthews comparable. He has the Rockets, is a C and is the C of the team.

5. Rantanen was traded for not accepting 11.75m. You are not at his level.

Options.

A. 4 year 12.5m with the NMC removed the final year (Limited ok)

B. 8 year 13m with the NMC removed years 5 6 7 8 (Limited ok)

C. 8 year 13.25m no NMC (Limited ok)

D. 8 year 12m NMC

E. WAIVE and Trade

You can just feel the spidey senses tingling for the Marner PR crew.

You will be reprimanded very promptly for not proclaiming how dramatically superior to Rantanen he is.

Option C IMO is the one that works for both parties. You wanna have your money kid? Go ahead and have it, but the perks of Toronto can come and go in an instant.

Exactly. Shit or get off the pot. So tired of this drama, Rantanen settled the value. 12m is the legit ceiling, too much even.

The overpays are just to get rid of the NMC.

Wingers just do not have the same pull that centers do. Gaudreau is the only winger since the covid era to hit real FA and he didn't get nearly as much as people thought he would. Usually teams get these guys locked up on good deals before they hit UFA, and once again, not very high numbers at all. Look at the numbers Tampa, Minnesota, Florida, etc.. all got Kucherov, Kaprizov, Tkachuk on. All 11-12% range. Avs even did Rantanen a solid by offering a bit more than that. But they clearly know the market and aren't tolerating any nonsense.