Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Stephen]

Lmao is anyone surprised that the cap is going up? I remember 2 months ago in a game day thread, I posted cap is probably gonna be 10 mill + what it currently is and got called a liar. As soon as I heard that escrow was paid off early, it was easy to know this was coming. The owners will give in because they know they don’t really have much to stand on for this CBA. This will be one of the easiest CBA’s for the league to negotiate. The players are gonna cash in. Everyone knows they’ve been a little bit undervalued in a general sense for way too long comparatively to other sports.

114 in 3 years is even higher than I anticipated. I expect the leafs to double down on their strategy.

Outside the sports bubble there are a lot of real world conditions that might impact those rosy projections. So if I were a fiscally responsible NHL team, I might not go full Dubas on handing out numerous record setting contracts and plead ignorance after the robot uprising occurs and we have a flat cap… but whatever.

 

[GoonieFace]

Not contagious but he's too ill to tough out a game, maybe on meds but not Ill enough to not have buds over to watch the game on big screen?

I'm not a medical professional but NHL players often play with broken bones and torn muscles and other significant injuries.

I've also never suffered from migraines.

Given he was comfortable enough to be filmed on Amazon, I'm guessing it's understandable.

I would have to give Willy the benefit of the doubt, he never misses games

 

[francis246]

Outside the sports bubble there are a lot of real world conditions that might impact those rosy projections. So if I were a fiscally responsible NHL team, I might not go full Dubas on handing out numerous record setting contracts and plead ignorance after the robot uprising occurs and we have a flat cap… but whatever.

For sure especially Canadian market teams. I’d still be really cautious, as US markets might have a significant advantage with the tariffs. That’s probably why we heard the rumours of teams still operating with an internal cap.

 

[Antropovsky]

Too many people think a migraine is a headache.

Nobody here called it a headache that ive seen. Again I don't know how migraines effect people so I'm hoping someone else will explain.

 

[Antropovsky]

Well in terms of absolutes yes we can sign him

In terms of feasability in winning 4 consequtive playoffs round in 1 year with MM at 12-14M and the rest if the gang paid as much as they are, it means no chance in hell for a cup.

The true decade of darkness will start if we run back this core again on absurd LT High AAVs next year after another early exit.

No way slow Marner is gonna be effective in a few years, he already has cement in his skates and a piano on his back. He can only take one or two strides before he has to move the puck or be caught from behind.

 

[Smif]

With the cap going up so much over the next three years there's likely going to be a shortage of good players making it to free agency IMO.

We should re-sign him. Hopefully we can get Marner, JT and Knies done for the same amount they're all making right now ($23M)

After that, because the core is all locked in the cap raises go towards new, upgraded players. Conceivably, we could even get McDavid if you move out someone like a Domi or so.

 

[IPS]

With the cap going up so much over the next three years there's likely going to be a shortage of good players making it to free agency IMO.

We should re-sign him. Hopefully we can get Marner, JT and Knies done for the same amount they're all making right now ($23M)

After that, because the core is all locked in the cap raises go towards new, upgraded players. Conceivably, we could even get McDavid if you move out someone like a Domi or so.

Wait so the cap is going up so that means we should immediately re-sign Marner but simultaneously by getting the core locked up we can take a run at McDavid?

Dude if we re-sign the whole core that literally means we CAN'T take a run at McDavid because he's obviously going to demand a nuclear number in FA. Are some people still under this bizarre illusion that Marner wants to give the Leafs some discount?

 

[ULF_55]

Nobody here called it a headache that ive seen. Again I don't know how migraines effect people so I'm hoping someone else will explain.

There are many symptoms, but they can include vision issues.
If you've ever had floaties you can multiply that many times, and watch a light show in your eyes.
That's just one symptom, online there is multiple resources to look at.

Myself, never really had debilitating head ache with my migraines, but being unable to read my computer screen was common. And my computer screen was not being shot around the room at 80-90 MPH that I had to look out for.

Had one co-worker who couldn't get out of bed period. They had occasions that lasted weeks, mine were usually hours.

 

[francis246]

Wait so the cap is going up so that means we should immediately re-sign Marner but simultaneously by getting the core locked up we can take a run at McDavid?

Dude if we re-sign the whole core that literally means we CAN'T take a run at McDavid because he's obviously going to demand a nuclear number in FA. Are some people still under this bizarre illusion that Marner wants to give the Leafs some discount?

I do think if the plan is to take a run at McDavid, you keep the money available. But it’s a hard thing to bet on unless you have been colluding. Does anyone really see a team with Matthews and McDavid both on it though?

 

[ToneDog]

With the cap going up so much over the next three years there's likely going to be a shortage of good players making it to free agency IMO.

We should re-sign him. Hopefully we can get Marner, JT and Knies done for the same amount they're all making right now ($23M)

After that, because the core is all locked in the cap raises go towards new, upgraded players. Conceivably, we could even get McDavid if you move out someone like a Domi or so.

Today - Marner (13.8) JT (8) Knies (6) = $27.8m minimum

June - Marner ($12.5) Tavares (5) Knies (5) = 22.5m minimum

 

[WTFMAN99]

Today - Marner (13.8) JT (8) Knies (6) = $27.8m minimum

June - Marner ($12.5) Tavares (5) Knies (5) = 22.5m minimum

I had Knies at 5.5M x 6-7 years on a 92.5M cap (a shade higher than Tuch on his current contract)

With the cap going to 95.5M, it becomes more interesting...from both sides because he's now had 2-3 concussions since last playoffs.

 

[Smif]

Wait so the cap is going up so that means we should immediately re-sign Marner but simultaneously by getting the core locked up we can take a run at McDavid?

Dude if we re-sign the whole core that literally means we CAN'T take a run at McDavid because he's obviously going to demand a nuclear number in FA. Are some people still under this bizarre illusion that Marner wants to give the Leafs some discount?

I'm not saying Matner will give the discount but the rest of the core did because they signed before the crazy cap increases. Even the recent signings of Tanev, McCabe, Woll, Rielly are very affordable and even Willy at 12% of the cap and Matthews at 13% is looking pretty good right now.

 

[Smif]

Today - Marner (13.8) JT (8) Knies (6) = $27.8m minimum

June - Marner ($12.5) Tavares (5) Knies (5) = 22.5m minimum

Why is JT getting a 38% increase since June?

I had Knies at 5.5M x 6-7 years on a 92.5M cap (a shade higher than Tuch on his current contract)

With the cap going to 95.5M, it becomes more interesting...from both sides because he's now had 2-3 concussions since last playoffs.

I read Knies was looking for a bridge deal, what's his number for 3 years?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Why is JT getting a 38% increase since June?


I read Knies was looking for a bridge deal, what's his number for 3 years?

2.5 - 3.5M? I can't see it going more than 4M because otherwise the team has a reason to dig in and fight for term at that point.

 

[ToneDog]

Why is JT getting a 38% increase since June?


I read Knies was looking for a bridge deal, what's his number for 3 years?

JT will get less assuming he doesn't have a good playoffs.

 

[Maple Leaf]

This cap news is great for the Marner camp he will be re-signed and we shall continue this discussion for the next 8 years with maybe 1 series win

 

[Smif]

This cap news is great for the Marner camp he will be re-signed and we shall continue this discussion for the next 8 years with maybe 1 series win

I feel Marner's agent is very good at his job, unfortunately.

 

[Gabriel426]

I do think if the plan is to take a run at McDavid, you keep the money available. But it’s a hard thing to bet on unless you have been colluding. Does anyone really see a team with Matthews and McDavid both on it though?

That’s why I think you sign MM after McD signs the extension on July 1. There is no way Oilers won’t try their best to sign him on July 1.
Even if McD signs the extension, it is a good ref point for MM’s contract.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Good teams advance, good teams don’t lose first round 7 of the last 8 years.

The world isn't as black and white as you want it to be, and the NHL playoff system is even more gray. If two great teams face each other in the first round, only one can advance, but it doesn't make the other bad. Playoff series outcomes and what round you get to is impacted by more than just how good a team is. Great teams lose early all the time. Some of the most dominant teams of all time lost in the first round. And all great teams except one lose every year. We squabble over meaningless participation trophies. As Pastrnak said in the Prime series, "it doesn't matter at the end, you know? If you don't get the cup, it doesn't matter who moves on from the first round".

We haven't had the core four for 8 years, we haven't had this cap model for 8 years, and we haven't been a particularly great team for 8 years, and yet everybody lumps the losses together and tries to pretend they justify whatever preconceived idea they have, without the whole justifying part. We've only even had more points than our opponent in 3 of those 8 seasons, and every one of those teams except the one we beat went to the cup final (and 2 of the 3 won cups in surrounding years). If you put value in playoff outcomes as you say, then you'd have to acknowledge that we lost to some great teams.

And I know you'll just write it off as excuses, but when great teams experience what we've experienced, they historically struggle to win series, just like we did. We've just experienced a lot of it, and in the first round, and especially in our best years. When your core is good enough to get you into the playoffs every year since you were the worst team in the league, and then you run into some of those issues, you can rack up a jarring record. And I get it, it sucks, but not everything that correlates with a rare event is the cause of that rare event. That record holds no meaning moving forward. Every season is new, and getting rid of some of our best players will not help us advance in the playoffs or, much more importantly, win a cup.

Dubas risked everything on this 4 and we as fans are paying the price.

Betting on some of the best young players of their era is a risk that every GM in the history of the game takes, and those four are one of the few reasons we're not in the gutter right now. We should be thankful.

Never knew the Montreal Canadiens and Blue Jackets were cup finalists.

...did you miss the 2021 playoffs?

 

[Racer88]

This cap news is great for the Marner camp he will be re-signed and we shall continue this discussion for the next 8 years with maybe 1 series win

I think it hurts Marner as it would now give the even more money to fix the team in other ways if he gets extra greedy
Why the heck would they pay him even more then he is getting now …….he is the same player only older

The world isn't as black and white as you want it to be, and the NHL playoff system is even more gray. If two great teams face each other in the first round, only one can advance, but it doesn't make the other bad. Playoff series outcomes and what round you get to is impacted by more than just how good a team is. Great teams lose early all the time. Some of the most dominant teams of all time lost in the first round. And all great teams except one lose every year. We squabble over meaningless participation trophies. As Pastrnak said in the Prime series, "it doesn't matter at the end, you know? If you don't get the cup, it doesn't matter who moves on from the first round".

We haven't had the core four for 8 years, we haven't had this cap model for 8 years, and we haven't been a particularly great team for 8 years, and yet everybody lumps the losses together and tries to pretend they justify whatever preconceived idea they have, without the whole justifying part. We've only even had more points than our opponent in 3 of those 8 seasons, and every one of those teams except the one we beat went to the cup final (and 2 of the 3 won cups in surrounding years). If you put value in playoff outcomes as you say, then you'd have to acknowledge that we lost to some great teams.

And I know you'll just write it off as excuses, but when great teams experience what we've experienced, they historically struggle to win series, just like we did. We've just experienced a lot of it, and in the first round, and especially in our best years. When your core is good enough to get you into the playoffs every year since you were the worst team in the league, and then you run into some of those issues, you can rack up a jarring record. And I get it, it sucks, but not everything that correlates with a rare event is the cause of that rare event. That record holds no meaning moving forward. Every season is new, and getting rid of some of our best players will not help us advance in the playoffs or, much more importantly, win a cup.

Betting on some of the best young players of their era is a risk that every GM in the history of the game takes, and those four are one of the few reasons we're not in the gutter right now. We should be thankful.

...did you miss the 2021 playoffs?

The cup winners and conference winners from the last 6-8 years didn’t bet everything on 4 forwards. I guess they are not as smart as Dubas………..

 

[Dekes For Days]

The cup winners, conference winners didn’t bet everything on 4 forwards.

They didn't have an opportunity to. They would have if they did. Everybody has different options available to them, and everybody wins in different ways. There's also more to the team than just them.

 

[francis246]

Why is JT getting a 38% increase since June?


I read Knies was looking for a bridge deal, what's his number for 3 years?

I read the team is looking to bridge Knies because his 8 year number was too high. If Knies is looking for a bridge he needs to fire his agent. Yeah he started hot but there’s no guarantee he pulls a Hyman and jumps from a 20 goal scorer to a 40 goal. If I’m Knies I want an 8 year deal like Matt Boldy or Jake Sanderson grab long term security cause he’s one concussion from being Onjre Kase

 

[Antropovsky]

I read the team is looking to bridge Knies because his 8 year number was too high. If Knies is looking for a bridge he needs to fire his agent. Yeah he started hot but there’s no guarantee he pulls a Hyman and jumps from a 20 goal scorer to a 40 goal. If I’m Knies I want an 8 year deal like Matt Boldy or Jake Sanderson grab long term security cause he’s one concussion from being Onjre Kase

We need to not put people needing new contracts with Matthews. Knies numbers with Matthews are incredible but not very good without him.

 

[Racer88]

They didn't have an opportunity to. They would have if they did. Everybody has different options available to them, and everybody wins in different ways. There's also more to the team than just them.

I don’t think you can say for sure they would have taken that opportunity. I believe at no time in history in the cap era has any team spent 50% of their cap on 2 wingers and 2 centres at the same time as far as the rest of the team you are right however the rest has been rebuilt multiple times by Dubas and Treliving with no playoff success, multiple coaches and assistant coaches as well.
This core might be talented individuals but they just do not work together

 

[Antropovsky]

They didn't have an opportunity to. They would have if they did. Everybody has different options available to them, and everybody wins in different ways. There's also more to the team than just them.

Meanwhile Colorado just traded Rantanen...