Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[ToneDog]

What cap # are you using?
Also again, what does that have to do with whether he’d get a NMC?

Garaunteed he gets a full NMC for the full duration of any contract extension

$92.5m cap X 13.5% = $12.5m. If he takes that today, most fans might have more patience for his playoff disappearances. There will always be a few that will crucify him if he flames out again.

 

[thewave]

$92.5m cap X 13.5% = $12.5m. If he takes that today, most fans might have more patience for his playoff disappearances. There will always be a few that will crucify him if he flames out again.

If he flamed out again at 12.5m and has a NMC. I don't think I would be bothering with the team for a while.

 

[ToneDog]

If he flamed out again at 12.5m and has a NMC. I don't think I would be bothering with the team for a while.

It beats $13+m and NMC because this organization is dumb enough to give it to him. At the end of the day, if you need to move him, you force him to waive. They may have to with Rielly this summer. Can't afford a $7.5m dman that is on pace for 36 points.

 

[leafs in five]

They won with him at his current cap hit, not the ones he’s gonna have after this season, i e they could afford depth. It’s hilarious reading defenders of “the core” whining about not having better bottom six players than Holmberg, Dewar, Reeves etc and also not understanding that’s what they’re getting if they want Marner and friends to get top dollar

We could afford better bottom 6 players than Reaves, Dewar, Kampf, Domi because they all suck and are all overpaid. It's not like these guys are making league minimum

 

[IPS]

edit: delete

 

[leafs in five]

Agree, all we can hope for is that Tre is smarter with this negotiation than he was with 88s.

When was the last time the Leafs made the correct difficult decision?

Not re-signing Campbell

 

[IPS]

I mean... If you need to pick out a completely different type of contract to argue your position, shouldn't that say to you that your argument is weak? RFA vs. UFA does matter. Heck, for Kaprizov, it's not even his 3rd contract. You're pointing at his post-ELC contract that was signed after 55 NHL games.

They also wouldn't have gotten 15% at the time anyway, because they weren't top tier players. You love pointing at one dimensional players and their peak points, while ignoring the context, underlying sustainability, and preceding performance. Tkachuk had a great year... after playing at a 68 point pace through the previous two years. Gaudreau had a great year (leading the league in empty net scoring)... after playing at a 70 point pace through the previous two years. Pastrnak had a great 2/3 of a year... after playing at an 85 point pace through the previous two years. You may ignore stuff like this, but GMs don't. It's one thing to fluctuate and have everything fall into place one year. It's another to be consistently dominant. When you're paying top money for almost a decade, you want confidence in what they're going to bring each year.

12.7% is in line with signings... in the 3rd tier of forwards. Some people liked pretending that Rantanen was in the 1st tier of forwards, but the evidence doesn't support that, and Colorado's reported offer and subsequent trade doesn't support that. Maybe it's time for you to actually read all the information I've explained to you for years, and reflect on why that is.

As for centres vs. wingers, the only one misinformed is you. The highest cap hit percentage ever given on a post-ELC contract? A winger. Outside of the absurd max contract given to Richards, the highest cap hit percentage ever given on a UFA contract? A winger. The best players are more likely to be centers, but when there's a top tier winger, they get paid, just like Kane did.

And for the record, I didn't just name centers. I showed you a recent top tier player on the same team. They got paid. I showed you a recent top tier player on another team. They got paid. I showed you a recent top tier center/winger hybrid. They got paid. I showed you a top tier winger. They got paid. And then I showed you 9 more wingers that Colorado reportedly valued Rantanen less than. There are even more. Because while Rantanen is a good player, he's not actually as good as you've pretended he is.

No way in hell I'm engaging with this novel of falsities and blatant misrepresentations. Sorry.

 

[GoonieFace]

No way in hell I'm engaging with this novel of falsities and blatant misrepresentations. Sorry.

Be patient, there is a Coles notes version of all Dekes posts coming soon

 

[Dekes For Days]

How long are you prepared to wait for this core to show improvement of results better then first round losses and 1 first round win. What is your patience level

Patience level until what?
Until I stop cheering for the Leafs? Never.
Until I'm okay with going a different direction? I'm down as soon as there's a realistic and logically reasoned alternative that will actually make us better.

But I will never be okay with scapegoating the best parts our team and engaging in change that makes us worse, just for the sake of change.

 

[ToneDog]

Not re-signing Campbell

That was not difficult but it was the correct decision. He fell off a cliff that season. The mistake was to replace him with Murray.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It’s hilarious reading defenders of “the core” whining about not having better bottom six players than Holmberg, Dewar, Reeves etc and also not understanding that’s what they’re getting if they want Marner and friends to get top dollar

You can get better players than Kampf, Reaves, Dewar, Domi, Pacioretty, etc. without spending more. Cap is a bad excuse for poor decisions.

No way in hell I'm engaging with this novel of falsities and blatant misrepresentations. Sorry.

There's one reason you don't want to answer, and it's because you know it's all true.

 

[francis246]

I feel like if you took Marner off the team and replaced him with me they would still make the playoffs.

That's how good the team is. And this isn't exclusive to Marner either. The same could be said about any of the rest of the core.

So walking away from Marner should be an easy choice.

He's easily the most polarizing player on the team. Just listen to the things he still saying in media after all these years. This is despite all that training in public speaking.

If that's what he says on public record what do you think he says off the record?

He just comes across as a spoiled little rich kid. Someone with an inability to accept responsibility for his failures. There's a list of excuses that would encircle my gut for this superstar who can't do anything super.

Getting rid of him would be the first necessary step towards changing the losing culture permeating throughout this organization

I’m sorry but this is just a horrible take. Marner has 18 more points than the next person on the team. 2nd in the league in primary assists, so you can’t really use the he racks up secondary assist bullshit argument. And Nylander has been fully healthy and still has 18 less points than him. Factor in the man games lost. This team would legit be bottom 10 in the league, especially with the way they are struggling for offense.

 

[francis246]

They won with him at his current cap hit, not the ones he’s gonna have after this season, i e they could afford depth. It’s hilarious reading defenders of “the core” whining about not having better bottom six players than Holmberg, Dewar, Reeves etc and also not understanding that’s what they’re getting if they want Marner and friends to get top dollar

They also won with Nathan MacKinnon making 6.5 million which people seem to forget. But look at the depth players they acquired. They were actually good players who can score.

Having less cap dollars doesn’t mean you can’t get good players. Why the fck are we paying Kampf 2.5 million? Is any other player comparable to Reaves making 1.3 million? That is the difference between the leafs and every other team in the league. No other team overpays 4th line plugs. Most other teams have fourth liners who make league min to 900k and can score. Meanwhile we are paying 2.5 for less than 10 goals and 1.3 for less than 10 points. How can you win like that? Toronto needs to get better at picking good depth players, that has nothing to do with $

 

[All Mod Cons]

It just worries me that the Leafs have shown they kind of operate in their own cap world.

Even if Rantanen signs for 11.5 or even 12, I feel the Leafs will certainly pay Marner more.

14 and I might pull my remaining hair out. 13 will make me want to puke. But I do feel like it will be 12 something sadly

100%. We have our own little rules. There are zero comparables around the league. Just amongst the core 4. I'm fully expecting a cool 14 milly. Just hope Tavares comes in a shade under 11.

 

[ToneDog]

They also won with Nathan MacKinnon making 6.5 million which people seem to forget. But look at the depth players they acquired. They were actually good players who can score.

Having less cap dollars doesn’t mean you can’t get good players. Why the fck are we paying Kampf 2.5 million? Is any other player comparable to Reaves making 1.3 million? That is the difference between the leafs and every other team in the league. No other team overpays 4th line plugs. Most other teams have fourth liners who make league min to 900k and can score. Meanwhile we are paying 2.5 for less than 10 goals and 1.3 for less than 10 points. How can you win like that? Toronto needs to get better at picking good depth players, that has nothing to do with $

Are these guys being developed, traded for or UFAs? You are not wrong we are overpaying plugs like Kampf, Jarnkrok, Reaves and Domi but finding players for $900K who can score is not so easy if you cannot draft and develop them. Leafs have the 28th ranked prospect pool.

 

[Jojalu]

Are these guys being developed, traded for or UFAs? You are not wrong we are overpaying plugs like Kampf, Jarnkrok, Reaves and Domi but finding players for $900K who can score is not so easy if you cannot draft and develop them. Leafs have the 28th ranked prospect pool.

Wonderful!

 

[francis246]

Are these guys being developed, traded for or UFAs? You are not wrong we are overpaying plugs like Kampf, Jarnkrok, Reaves and Domi but finding players for $900K who can score is not so easy if you cannot draft and develop them. Leafs have the 28th ranked prospect pool.

the leafs have ample young guys, again it's just dumb decision making. Toronto in recent years has preferred to sign over the hill UFA's to fill roster spots instead of just letting young guys grab those spots.

Grebyonkin for example, he's played pro hockey already in the KHL. Could he have not filled a role on the 4th line? He's more effective than Reaves. I think at some point the leafs need to trust their development path and graduate some of these AHL guys and see what happens. Abruzzesse is another one. Smaller guy but has speed and can score. Look at what happened when we gave McMann and Moore opportunities, they flourished, even Justin Holl to a lesser degree. Not everyone you draft has to be a top end guy. They can be bottom six guys and we have guys in the AHL that can play, we just need to give them the opportunity to.

Steeves is another guy, who probably deserves an extended look and we are gonna lose him to UFA this off-season.

 

[GoonieFace]

the leafs have ample young guys, again it's just dumb decision making. Toronto in recent years has preferred to sign over the hill UFA's to fill roster spots instead of just letting young guys grab those spots.

Grebyonkin for example, he's played pro hockey already in the KHL. Could he have not filled a role on the 4th line? He's more effective than Reaves. I think at some point the leafs need to trust their development path and graduate some of these AHL guys and see what happens. Abruzzesse is another one. Smaller guy but has speed and can score. Look at what happened when we gave McMann and Moore opportunities, they flourished, even Justin Holl to a lesser degree. Not everyone you draft has to be a top end guy. They can be bottom six guys and we have guys in the AHL that can play, we just need to give them the opportunity to.

Steeves is another guy, who probably deserves an extended look and we are gonna lose him to UFA this off-season.

This i agree with. They seem to have an aversion to just running a rookie type line. Imagine a full year of Grebs-Minten-Steeves for example. It would be much more effective than the garbage they throw out there. Are they afraid they can’t handle 82 games? It’s odd.

 

[JL17]

No team purges their 23 year old superstars because they didn't win a playoff series yet. And even putting aside all of the other context of that series, no team is going to decide against their "core 4" strategy because they lost a playoff series where they didn't have their core 4. That group of people would have been the first to complain and blame our GM for his impatience and shortsightedness when those players went on to win cups for other teams, while we fell back into mediocrity.

Plus there leaders have a Stanley Cup run under their belt.

 

[francis246]

This i agree with. They seem to have an aversion to just running a rookie type line. Imagine a full year of Grebs-Minten-Steeves for example. It would be much more effective than the garbage they throw out there. Are they afraid they can’t handle 82 games? It’s odd.

even if they were to have some growing pains and give up goals, that would be fine. It's apart of learning. I'm sure they have flaws in their game. But I hope starting next year they choose to use more internal options. We need speed.

 

[ToneDog]

the leafs have ample young guys, again it's just dumb decision making. Toronto in recent years has preferred to sign over the hill UFA's to fill roster spots instead of just letting young guys grab those spots.

Grebyonkin for example, he's played pro hockey already in the KHL. Could he have not filled a role on the 4th line? He's more effective than Reaves. I think at some point the leafs need to trust their development path and graduate some of these AHL guys and see what happens. Abruzzesse is another one. Smaller guy but has speed and can score. Look at what happened when we gave McMann and Moore opportunities, they flourished, even Justin Holl to a lesser degree. Not everyone you draft has to be a top end guy. They can be bottom six guys and we have guys in the AHL that can play, we just need to give them the opportunity to.

Steeves is another guy, who probably deserves an extended look and we are gonna lose him to UFA this off-season.

No guarantee they can stick but how much worse can they be? They deserve a fair shot. Mistake to sign Kampf at that cap hit and Reaves period.

 

[Aashir]

No team purges their 23 year old superstars because they didn't win a playoff series yet. And even putting aside all of the other context of that series, no team is going to decide against their "core 4" strategy because they lost a playoff series where they didn't have their core 4. That group of people would have been the first to complain and blame our GM for his impatience and shortsightedness when those players went on to win cups for other teams, while we fell back into mediocrity.

And instead look where we are….

5 expected cup wins, 3 expected president trophies

Player producing under their rates and full on failure is what we got instead.

 

[Ports]

They know that marner Tavares Willy and matthews ALL of them have disappointed in the playoffs
Even if they lose in the first round they will still sign marner
They are a worse team without him and don’t give me the we can replace him with a 7 and 6 million dollar replacement
They will never ever lose a player like marner for nothing allowing him to UFA

I was hoping that wasn’t the case but it’s probably true. Even if they flame out again in the playoffs, the safe move is to re-sign him and hope a rising salary cap allows them to build a deep enough team to compete for a cup. I don’t personally believe that’s the case because their top players are in their prime and still can’t score when it counts and I don’t see that changing. Opponents know how to shut them down and keep them on the perimeter. Eight years should be enough time to force them to change direction but they don’t have the courage to do it.

 

[Racer88]

You can get better players than Kampf, Reaves, Dewar, Domi, Pacioretty, etc. without spending more. Cap is a bad excuse for poor decisions.

There's one reason you don't want to answer, and it's because you know it's all true.

We have had 2 GM’s worth of this bad decisions. Both Tre and Dubas have had no success surrounding these guys with a winning group.
Shoukd we be trying a third

 

[DarkKnight]

Hmm... not really. But he's talking about hockey anyways.

Ya really.