Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

I think you guys underestimate how desperate for stars some teams are. If Mitchy were to hit free agency, in his prime, he would create a frenzy and some jackass Owner/GM would go all in and make a huge mistake. Tale as old as time.
Zero doubt this occurs. Some of the validations here are hilarious, but not surprising given the source. Depends on the official cap rise over the next two years, if as advertised, 14 might be on the table. I still see 12.5-13 here, if the cap rises more.
 
yeah but my initial reply was to a post that said, why can't our front office see the obvious, as Colorado's has. I think that position will be tested by that team's results over the next couple years.
Our front office has a bigger office over it. Accounting says... MM AM WN JT all draw big crowds and sell a lot of merchandise. They are the final decision maker.
 
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This is why I have my stance. Honestly I’d love to get to the point maybe you and a few others are out. But they dug their heels in with this core. This is who they believe in and who are we kidding to think they are going to change it. We also are kidding ourselves if we think we are going to stop watching.

I care, I’m on hf boards spinning circles everyday, but I don’t care to the point that if they signed Marner it would make me stop watching. So whatever they decide I want to see them have success. It’s not that I’m a fake fan or a Marner supporter, but me being outraged does nothing IMO. They aren’t going to suddenly not want Marner anymore cause of that. So I’m just being realistic and accepting the situation for what it is and I just hope this core can eventually get it done cause they ain’t going no where for at least another 3 years. When they didn’t at least fire Keefe after Montreal I accepted ain’t nothing changing.
Been a Leaf fan all my life and have witnessed the Ballard years, so in retrospect this isn’t all that bad, granted I was young than and didn’t know better.

Either way it plays out, I still want to see them win.
 
yeah but my initial reply was to a post that said, why can't our front office see the obvious, as Colorado's has. I think that position will be tested by that team's results over the next couple years.
As I said:

the idea that one's team success or failure proves that any approach is right or wrong. Every team is different, every situation is different, and sometimes you can make the smartest move and still not have success etc.

It's not even a question of the "approach" when it comes to Marner. Him going from a ~100 point player to a ~40 point player after 86 games for many years now is enough for me to say no to paying him like a superstar regardless of what the team as a whole does or doesn't do. How many more years do you need to see, or are you happy with his playoff performance to this point?

He's also trending down when you consider the last 2 series we played where he was a ~40 point player from the get-go. Yes it's a small sample size and yes he could reverse that trend but dropping off after 86 games is evidenced by a much larger sample size. Playoffs are also a small sample size by their very nature, when the lights go on you have to be ready to play your best and show the world what you've got. You simply have to be ready, if you're not, and you can't manage 4 wins from the first 7 games then your season is over and your millions of fans are left disappointed, Leaf fans should know that better than anyone at this point.
 
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Been a Leaf fan all my life and have witnessed the Ballard years, so in retrospect this isn’t all that bad, granted I was young than and didn’t know better.

Either way it plays out, I still want to see them win.
Some of the Ballard years were better than this. When we beat NYI in the playoffs, that was one the high points of my 50+ years following this team and this core hasn't even come close to doing something like that. We also had guys like Sittler, Salming and a few others that were warriors and you never had to even think about their desire to win and win or lose, you could be proud of the team.

That said, in the 80's things went completely off the rails ...
 
There's been ample wingers in recent years who've negotiated with minimal time left as RFA status, and negotiated the primary duration of their contract paid relative to UFA years. Tkachuk, Kaprizov, Pastrnak, Kucherov, etc... None of these guys are signing above 15%, not even close. If you wanna split hairs on actually being UFA vs practically being one, it just says to me your argument is that weak. Rantanen at 11.75 would have been 12.72% of the projected cap next year, that is easily in line with recent winger signing. Heck Gaudreau (RIP) came off leading the league in ES scoring with 115 points as a full UFA and got 11.8%.

And you referencing centers and what they signed for just tells me how woefully misinformed you are about how much differently wingers are perceived value wise than centers.
I mean... If you need to pick out a completely different type of contract to argue your position, shouldn't that say to you that your argument is weak? RFA vs. UFA does matter. Heck, for Kaprizov, it's not even his 3rd contract. You're pointing at his post-ELC contract that was signed after 55 NHL games. :facepalm:

They also wouldn't have gotten 15% at the time anyway, because they weren't top tier players. You love pointing at one dimensional players and their peak points, while ignoring the context, underlying sustainability, and preceding performance. Tkachuk had a great year... after playing at a 68 point pace through the previous two years. Gaudreau had a great year (leading the league in empty net scoring)... after playing at a 70 point pace through the previous two years. Pastrnak had a great 2/3 of a year... after playing at an 85 point pace through the previous two years. You may ignore stuff like this, but GMs don't. It's one thing to fluctuate and have everything fall into place one year. It's another to be consistently dominant. When you're paying top money for almost a decade, you want confidence in what they're going to bring each year.

12.7% is in line with signings... in the 3rd tier of forwards. Some people liked pretending that Rantanen was in the 1st tier of forwards, but the evidence doesn't support that, and Colorado's reported offer and subsequent trade doesn't support that. Maybe it's time for you to actually read all the information I've explained to you for years, and reflect on why that is.

As for centres vs. wingers, the only one misinformed is you. The highest cap hit percentage ever given on a post-ELC contract? A winger. Outside of the absurd max contract given to Richards, the highest cap hit percentage ever given on a UFA contract? A winger. The best players are more likely to be centers, but when there's a top tier winger, they get paid, just like Kane did.

And for the record, I didn't just name centers. I showed you a recent top tier player on the same team. They got paid. I showed you a recent top tier player on another team. They got paid. I showed you a recent top tier center/winger hybrid. They got paid. I showed you a top tier winger. They got paid. And then I showed you 9 more wingers that Colorado reportedly valued Rantanen less than. There are even more. Because while Rantanen is a good player, he's not actually as good as you've pretended he is.
 
Marner camp apparently not wanting to negotiate until after the season is an interesting development. If Marner has a poor playoff, that gives the Leafs a much bigger out to not re-sign him.

Marner be playing with fire.
Hard to believe they are that dumb or that confident in Marner lighting it up in the playoffs. Odds are he flames out. Can't see him getting through the grind of 2 playoff rounds, let alone 3 or 4.
 
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Hard to believe they are that dumb or that confident in Marner lighting it up in the playoffs. Odds are he flames out. Can't see him getting through the grind of 2 playoff rounds, let alone 3 or 4.
Honestly, it won’t matter what happens in the playoffs. They will re-sign him. Of course, unless he chooses to leave
 
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Honestly, it won’t matter what happens in the playoffs. They will re-sign him. Of course, unless he chooses to leave
Yeah that's what I think as well. I mean I would hope there would some dollar amount where they draw the line and say no, hard to have confidence in that being the case though. But it might not matter, if he keeps fizzling out after 86 games it doesn't matter whether his cap hit is 12 or 14 million, either would be a massive anchor that makes playoff success even more unlikely than it already is.

Not bending over for him would at least be a small uptick in the org's level of self respect, better than nothing I guess. But yeah, I don't think we're getting even that much. Nothing left to do but hope against hope that Marner somehow finds a way to be effective in playoff style hockey.
 
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Some of the Ballard years were better than this. When we beat NYI in the playoffs, that was one the high points of my 50+ years following this team and this core hasn't even come close to doing something like that. We also had guys like Sittler, Salming and a few others that were warriors and you never had to even think about their desire to win and win or lose, you could be proud of the team.

That said, in the 80's things went completely off the rails ...
Hired rookie GM Gord Stellick. Shanny hires rookie GM Dubas. Pretty much says it all.
 
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Marner camp apparently not wanting to negotiate until after the season is an interesting development. If Marner has a poor playoff, that gives the Leafs a much bigger out to not re-sign him.

Marner be playing with fire.

I don't think Marner or his camp cares. There's zero downside to it from his perspective. If he has a good playoffs and they still lose, he has the Maple Leafs by the balls. If he performs well and the Maple Leafs succeed, he has the maple leafs by the balls. If he performs poorly and the team wants to move on, no body cares. He still will get a more than what he's making now in UFA. People already want him gone anyways. People won't be mad at him, they'll be happy he's gone but they'll be mad at management for not trading him at peak value. So from a player perspective, there is no bad scenario for him. He's in a really good situation.

*IN B4 people start bashing me. I'm just providing a perspective. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with his positioning.
 
I don't think Marner or his camp cares. There's zero downside to it from his perspective. If he has a good playoffs and they still lose, he has the Maple Leafs by the balls. If he performs well and the Maple Leafs succeed, he has the maple leafs by the balls. If he performs poorly and the team wants to move on, no body cares. He still will get a more than what he's making now in UFA. People already want him gone anyways. People won't be mad at him, they'll be happy he's gone but they'll be mad at management for not trading him at peak value. So from a player perspective, there is no bad scenario for him. He's in a really good situation.

*IN B4 people start bashing me. I'm just providing a perspective. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with his positioning.
Not 100% accurate IMO, but close.

I think he really wants to stay in Toronto so if he ends up elsewhere, that's the downside. But he's filthy rich, whatever happens he'll still be filthy rich, if he keeps playing he'll be even more rich and if he really doesn't want to play elsewhere, he's rich enough to just retire if the Leafs don't sign him so yeah, worst case scenario for a multi millionaire is pretty sweet no matter what.
 
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I don't think Marner or his camp cares. There's zero downside to it from his perspective. If he has a good playoffs and they still lose, he has the Maple Leafs by the balls. If he performs well and the Maple Leafs succeed, he has the maple leafs by the balls. If he performs poorly and the team wants to move on, no body cares. He still will get a more than what he's making now in UFA. People already want him gone anyways. People won't be mad at him, they'll be happy he's gone but they'll be mad at management for not trading him at peak value. So from a player perspective, there is no bad scenario for him. He's in a really good situation.

*IN B4 people start bashing me. I'm just providing a perspective. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with his positioning.
The only way Leafs do not resign him is if he flames out in the playoffs and the fans put enough pressure on the team to force them to move on. Even then, there is no guarantee they do not stay the course.

It could signal the return of Waffles. LOL.
 
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Not 100% accurate IMO, but close.

I think he really wants to stay in Toronto so if he ends up elsewhere, that's the downside. But he's filthy rich, whatever happens he'll still be filthy rich, if he keeps playing he'll be even more rich and if he really doesn't want to play elsewhere, he's rich enough to just retire if the Leafs don't sign him so yeah, worst case scenario for a multi millionaire is pretty sweet no matter what.

I think that he really wants to stay in Toronto thing is so overrated. All the players want to stay, but when faced with the decision to leave, they'll be okay. Zach Hyman really wanted to stay in Toronto, Nazem Kadri really wanted to stay. Phil and Dion both really wanted to stay and didn't want to leave. But guess what!? Once they made the move they got over it. The same would be true for Marner, the idea that marner will never be as happy as when he was a leaf is crazy. and it feels like it's something we just tell ourselves to make ourself feel better about the situation.
 
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I think that he really wants to stay in Toronto thing is so overrated. All the players want to stay, but when faced with the decision to leave, they'll be okay. Zach Hyman really wanted to stay in Toronto, Nazem Kadri really wanted to stay. Phil and Dion both really wanted to stay and didn't want to leave. But guess what!? Once they made the move they got over it. The same would be true for Marner, the idea that marner will never be as happy as when he was a leaf is crazy. and it feels like it's something we just tell ourselves to make ourself feel better about the situation.
Not crazy at all, in fact I'd say calling it crazy is crazy.

Growing up in this town, the capital of the hockey work a player dreams of winning the cup here. If he goes elsewhere, that dream is dead. Of course he'll get over it, but thinking he'll be happy about it is well ... crazy.

Not sure how this would make me "feel better about the situation", all I care about is winning and I think him leaving would be good thing in that regard.
 
Hired rookie GM Gord Stellick. Shanny hires rookie GM Dubas. Pretty much says it all.
Dubas’ inability to get team friendly deals, despite having all the leverage, we are still dealing with that, and for that reason he is one of the worst GM’s we’ve ever had. No results, overpaid pampered culture and no farm system or picks. A disaster by any measure.
 
Not crazy at all, in fact I'd say calling it crazy is crazy.

Growing up in this town, the capital of the hockey work a player dreams of winning the cup here. If he goes elsewhere, that dream is dead. Of course he'll get over it, but thinking he'll be happy about it is well ... crazy.

Not sure how this would make me "feel better about the situation", all I care about is winning and I think him leaving would be good thing in that regard.

to each their own. I understand what you're saying but I don't think it's that deep. do you honestly believe zach hyman is upset cause he made the finals with the oilers instead of the leafs? i'm sure he probably thinks about what it would be like if he did it with the leafs, but would it cause unhappiness? meh not so sure of that.
 

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