NHL Talk Miscellaneous NHL Discussion CIX: Processing a Tremendous Amount of Insane Information

[freakydallas13]

Most teams fail. Only 1 of 32 succeed if winning the Cup is your standard.

If most teams fail, then stop using "X team failed" arguments in favour of whatever roster building strategy you are trying to push.

 

[deadhead]

If most teams fail, then stop using "X team failed" arguments in favour of whatever roster building strategy you are trying to push.

I've said repeatedly I'm not pushing any strategy.

To me, there are a number of possible strategies, their success is probably a combination of competent implementation and luck.

I have no idea Briere will succeed, but as long as they're patient, accumulate assets it's not a "failure." That is, if in 3 years they're a bottom ten team, they'll have lots of assets for the new GM.

So my measure is whether they continue to add assets and build for the future (1st and 2nd rd picks and young prospects). As long as they don't end the rebuild prematurely and start burning assets for older veterans, I'm happy. Mistakes are inevitable, so go with "safety in numbers."

And I'm patient within those parameters. Whether they trade Risto at the TDL or next summer is irrelevant if your target season is 2027-28.

 

[freakydallas13]

I've said repeatedly I'm not pushing any strategy.

To me, there are a number of possible strategies, their success is probably a combination of competent implementation and luck.

I have no idea Briere will succeed, but as long as they're patient, accumulate assets it's not a "failure." That is, if in 3 years they're a bottom ten team, they'll have lots of assets for the new GM.

So my measure is whether they continue to add assets and build for the future (1st and 2nd rd picks and young prospects). As long as they don't end the rebuild prematurely and start burning assets for older veterans, I'm happy. Mistakes are inevitable, so go with "safety in numbers."

And I'm patient within those parameters. Whether they trade Risto at the TDL or next summer is irrelevant if your target season is 2027-28.

You're not pushing any strategy? Literally two of your posts ago in this thread you are talking about ideal team construction and used the Rangers as a counter example.

I feel like I'm having a stroke here.

 

[Lord Defect]

Basically there was a mini-Dead Puck Era for a few years that they happened to be built and coached perfectly for. League offense and playstyle coincidentally regressed in a way that benefitted them. It would be like if everyone suddenly started doing stuff that gave the Flyers a weird advantage that was unforseeable.

So the other teams just stop showing up?
You know what, I’ll take an asterisk next to the cup at this point

 

[freakydallas13]

I think the model isn't the style of play but team construction:

1) you need one superstar

2) you need to build quality depth

3) you need good goalies

I've said repeatedly I'm not pushing any strategy.

These posts are like 90 minutes apart, come on man.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

... and Frost would still miss

you shoulda said Ghost you coward...

 

[deadhead]

You're not pushing any strategy? Literally two of your posts ago in this thread you are talking about ideal team construction and used the Rangers as a counter example.

I feel like I'm having a stroke here.

I used the Rangers to show that merely picking high wasn't enough, you need both good scouting and luck.

Don't count on landing a McDavid, you may get one or two shots at an elite player even in a tank, Nico is a very good center but he's not elite. Any viable strategy has to be more than pick high for five or six years and hope you don't miss.

Point wasn't HOW you get there, but what you want to get.

 

[freakydallas13]

I used the Rangers to show that merely picking high wasn't enough, you need both good scouting and luck.

Don't count on landing a McDavid, you may get one or two shots at an elite player even in a tank, Nico is a very good center but he's not elite. Any viable strategy has to be more than pick high for five or six years and hope you don't miss.

Point wasn't HOW you get there, but what you want to get.

Believe it or not, but by telling people which strategy to avoid ("you can't just pick high every year") you are actually pushing a strategy. You can't say "I'm not telling you want to do, I'm only telling you what not to do" and pretend you have the high ground here. That's bush league, do better.

Just be consistent is all I'm asking. You want to include the Rangers as a counter example? Great. Do it. But also include all the examples that disprove your point. Otherwise you're just cherry picking and working with an incomplete data set to push your own narrative.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I used the Rangers to show that merely picking high wasn't enough, you need both good scouting and luck.

Don't count on landing a McDavid, you may get one or two shots at an elite player even in a tank, Nico is a very good center but he's not elite. Any viable strategy has to be more than pick high for five or six years and hope you don't miss.

Point wasn't HOW you get there, but what you want to get.

There's a reason the well managed teams are the "lucky" ones and all the badly managed teams are the "unlucky" ones.

Luck is irrelevant. If you're competent and you make a series of good moves, bad luck gets fixed and left in the rear view in short order. If you're managed like the Flyers, though, they compound bad luck with bad decisions and vice versa. And then lament their "bad luck" while pretending good teams are merely lucky.

 

[ponder719]

Kaapo Krako.

That is all.

 

[deadhead]

There's a reason the well managed teams are the "lucky" ones and all the badly managed teams are the "unlucky" ones.

Luck is irrelevant. If you're competent and you make a series of good moves, bad luck gets fixed and left in the rear view in short order. If you're managed like the Flyers, though, they compound bad luck with bad decisions and vice versa. And then lament their "bad luck" while pretending good teams are merely lucky.

No. Luck is always relevant. Though as Branch Rickey said: "Luck is the residue of design."
The world is stochastic in nature, the best you can do is improve your odds.

 

[Beef Invictus]

No. Luck is always relevant. Though as Branch Rickey said: "Luck is the residue of design."
The world is stochastic in nature, the best you can do is improve your odds.

"Luck is the residue of design" affirms my point. It's a thing you make yourself. It's impact is a reflection of your own processes. The Flyers' residue is garbage, hence their luck is garbage. It's all part of the same bowl of incompetence.

 

[Sombastate]

Wtf are the Rangers doing? They're gonna get a better pick than us haha

 

[WolfOfBroadStreet14]

Lmaooo Drury

 

[CutOnDime97]

NYR propaganda?

 

[freakydallas13]

KK traded for scraps, good pick up for the Seattle Krakonen

NYR propaganda?

Lmao, suuuuure Drury. Not related to his comments, got it.

Propaganda is the one field the Flyers excel at, and this is some shit tier propaganda cover up going on.

 

[Cody Webster]

I thought trades didnt happen until the deadline or in the off-season?

 

[renberg]

I thought trades didnt happen until the deadline or in the off-season?

So I’ve been told. This year has more desperation happening than in past ones.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Kakko’s draft position is still doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Seattle got him for cheap & he is a decent bottom of the lineup player in current form. But at this point you're counting on a pretty sizable leap in development that just isn’t very likely at his age.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Three trades in one night?!

 

[CerpinTaxt]

Kakko’s draft position is still doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Seattle got him for cheap & he is a decent bottom of the lineup player in current form. But at this point you're counting on a pretty sizable leap in development that just isn’t very likely at his age.

Risto says hold my 800 game development (and he still sucks)

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Three trades in one night?!

When GMs get it in their head that there's a trade freeze period upcoming, they tend to get busy.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

That’s Former Flyers Trade Target Justin Barron to you, thank you very much.

 

[Magua]

Kakko’s draft position is still doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Seattle got him for cheap & he is a decent bottom of the lineup player in current form. But at this point you're counting on a pretty sizable leap in development that just isn’t very likely at his age.

Probably not. But they paid a fine price for what he is. It’s basically impossible to lose this trade. Stranger things have happened. Maybe he’s Bennett, maybe he’s perma-plateaued. I’m very much OK with continually taking low risk bets like this over trading comparable value for Erik Johnson and re-signing Seeler. I think it’s somewhat fitting it’s an expansion team that acquired him.

That’s Former Flyers Trade Target Justin Barron to you, thank you very much.

Their Giroux target. Maybe they preferred him to Tippett! Even the trades they don’t make showcase they don’t know what they’re looking for. Do we ever get reports of the Flyers being in on a good target?

 

[ponder719]

Basically there was a mini-Dead Puck Era for a few years that they happened to be built and coached perfectly for. League offense and playstyle coincidentally regressed in a way that benefitted them. It would be like if everyone suddenly started doing stuff that gave the Flyers a weird advantage that was unforseeable.

I'm here for a sudden "goals by gingers count as 3" rule.