NHL Talk Miscellaneous NHL Discussion CIX: Processing a Tremendous Amount of Insane Information

[thedjpd]

MacKINNON

He's only one of the top few players in the NHL. It's about damn time we spell his name correctly.

Also, the fact that the Avs traded Duchene is one of the big reasons that they became what they did. The Flyers organization would NEVER do that.

They literally did by trading Carter and Richards.

 

[renberg]

I heard a rumor, and it is an interesting one, that Bedard is not happy in Chicago and wants out. It was one of the reasons that Richardson was let go. If he waits one more season to sign an extension, he'll be an RFA. There will be teams that will bid up to nab him if he does that.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The point is tanking is a fool's errand, to be successful, with the lottery, you have to be as lucky as NJ who landed the #1 pick twice. Or you can be the Flyers who landed the #2 pick twice and ended up with JVR and Patrick.

Never gamble.

 

[freakydallas13]

"Tanking is a fool's errand, not like my strategy that relies even more on on luck"

 

[deadhead]

St Louis wins one Cup, makes POs three more seasons - fluke
Colorado wins one Cup, made POs two more seasons, this year?
Both never got past the 2nd rd after their Cup.

Only 3 teams win multiple Cups the last couple decades:
TB - two high picks in Stamkos and Hedman (Stamkos was injured for one Cup)
CHI - two high picks in Toews and Kane
LA - #4-2007 Hickey, Doughty #2-2008 (Kopitar was #11), #5-2009 B Schenn

Flyers have Michkov, best bet is keep drafting goalies, top five goalie will cover a multitude of sins.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

St Louis wins one Cup, makes POs three more seasons - fluke
Colorado wins one Cup, made POs two more seasons, this year?
Both never got past the 2nd rd after their Cup.

You’re not dumb. There’s no reason to play it.

Flyers have Michkov, best bet is keep drafting goalies, top five goalie will cover a multitude of sins.

There’s exactly one Goalie who’s consistently top 5 in the world. One on the planet. Just draft another one of those guys probably isn’t a plan.

 

[freakydallas13]

St Louis wins one Cup, makes POs three more seasons - fluke
Colorado wins one Cup, made POs two more seasons, this year?
Both never got past the 2nd rd after their Cup.

Only 3 teams win multiple Cups the last couple decades:
TB - two high picks in Stamkos and Hedman (Stamkos was injured for one Cup)
CHI - two high picks in Toews and Kane
LA - #4-2007 Hickey, Doughty #2-2008 (Kopitar was #11), #5-2009 B Schenn

Flyers have Michkov, best bet is keep drafting goalies, top five goalie will cover a multitude of sins.

Colorado has been crushed by injuries and is still a decent goaltender away from being a top team, is close to competing even now and still has one of the best players in the world.

St. Louis is an aging team that gets worse every year, that will be in cap hell soon, and has no easy fix.

But yeah, totally the same.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The point is tanking is a fool's errand, to be successful, with the lottery, you have to be as lucky as NJ who landed the #1 pick twice. Or you can be the Flyers who landed the #2 pick twice and ended up with JVR and Patrick.

The strategy is less important than the implementation.
Either you can scout and develop players or any strategy is doomed to fail unless you're extremely lucky.

Tanking combined with ensuing competent roster building is the most reliable formula for success. Full stop.

Pointing at terribly managed teams failing does not disprove this. In fact, it only serves to condemn the Flyers for attempting a rebuild with obviously failed managers. This is why step 1 for a successful rebuild has to be the Flyers firing every single person currently on this list:

Official Philadelphia Flyers Website | Philadelphia Flyers

The official National Hockey League website including news, rosters, stats, schedules, teams, and video.

www.nhl.com

You replace every one of them with people who know how this sport actually works, then you let them build. Those people are too incompetent to ascend even to an Edmonton level.

 

[pit]

Only 3 teams win multiple Cups the last couple decades:
TB - two high picks in Stamkos and Hedman (Stamkos was injured for one Cup)
CHI - two high picks in Toews and Kane
LA - #4-2007 Hickey, Doughty #2-2008 (Kopitar was #11), #5-2009 B Schenn

Pittsburgh says hi.

In the cap era, those 4 teams have won 10 of the 19 Cups and were in the finals without winning 3 times.

That doesn't account for the Bruins and they won one Cup with 2 more finals appearances or other teams with a Cup win and a finals appearance like Detroit, Florida or Vegas.

One and done in the Finals is more the exception than the rule.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

There’s also a big problem with quoting the Kings in any meaningful arguments. That specific advantage is long gone. You can’t replicate it.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Never gamble.

He and the Flyers would gather around a Craps table, play all the long odds bets, lose everything, and then declare that craps clearly is the most unwinnable game out there.

Meanwhile the opposite is true. But they were just doing it wrong.

Teams like Montreal, Philly, Buffalo, and Edmonton running in and doing everything wrong does not prove that doing things the right way doesn't work.

 

[Beef Invictus]

There’s also a big problem with quoting the Kings in any meaningful arguments. That specific advantage is long gone. You can’t replicate it.

The Kings also won with Lombardi considering actively blowing it, followed by him successfully blowing it shortly after. Their specific modus operandi happened to align perfectly with a shift in the sport that favored how they were built and played, too. That shift went the opposite way and they didn't even try to adapt. Pretending you can build like that deliberately is silly.

It's like citing the Blues as a meaningful model you can recreate. They're what, the only team that has ever won following their model? And it was one-off contention.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

He and the Flyers would gather around a Craps table, play all the long odds bets, lose everything, and then declare that craps clearly is the most unwinnable game out there.

Meanwhile the opposite is true. But they were just doing it wrong.

Teams like Montreal, Philly, Buffalo, and Edmonton running in and doing everything wrong does not prove that doing things the right way doesn't work.

So my wife one time asked me to teach her how to gamble on something not ridiculously tilted toward the house. She basically wanted to be able to go to the casino if friends are going and enjoy herself. I went with craps because of the low house advantage and table action. 3 minutes in, she said, “This is just 6 sided die math, isn’t it?” and has never been back since.

But yes, the Flyers would bet Hard 6s and 8s all night.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So my wife one time asked me to teach her how to gamble on something not ridiculously tilted toward the house. She basically wanted to be able to go to the casino if friends are going and enjoy herself. I went with craps because of the low house advantage and table action. 3 minutes in, she said, “This is just 6 sided die math, isn’t it?” and has never been back since.

But yes, the Flyers would bet Hard 6s and 8s all night.

God I hope people understand how well thought out this is in terms of almost having the right idea but then completely botching it.

We've done it! We are in position to get The Talent!


***Drafts Middle Six/Pairing Ceilings Who Are Long Shots***

 

[freakydallas13]

He and the Flyers would gather around a Craps table, play all the long odds bets, lose everything, and then declare that craps clearly is the most unwinnable game out there.

Meanwhile the opposite is true. But they were just doing it wrong.

Teams like Montreal, Philly, Buffalo, and Edmonton running in and doing everything wrong does not prove that doing things the right way doesn't work.

Side note, but Craps is about tied with the best odds game in the casino with Baccarat, depending on the exact Baccarat rules the casino uses.

Great analogy though, 10/10.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The Kings two biggest outside acquisitions (Carter & Richards) that helped get them over the hump were both signed to contracts that aren’t legal in today’s CBA. They got those on much cheaper cap hits than they should have been because of the long term dummy years attached to them to drive the cap hit down.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Shit, now I want to teach my wife craps, but she will become addicted to it. I know this. It is a risk. She'd never actually gambled before, and we started betting on random nonsense using Blackjack and a very simple version of 5 card poker without any draws, just what you're dealt is what you get for speed, and after she won a bunch of my Skittles I could see the gambling addiction taking hold in her eyes. She wants to go to a Casino now

 

[deadhead]

You’re not dumb. There’s no reason to play it.



There’s exactly one Goalie who’s consistently top 5 in the world. One on the planet. Just draft another one of those guys probably isn’t a plan.

Neither is tanking. Flyers are good at developing goalies. It's probably their strongest suit.

Tanking would require trading half the team, it's hard to be so bad you have a shot (not a guarantee) at #1. And most years, what you're getting from #2-5 is a good player, not a franchise player. After trading half the team (your better young players) you'll not only have to get lucky enough to land a franchise player, you'll also need to rebuild the team you traded away to tank.

Most of the teams that are SC contenders didn't do it by tanking, they did it by consistently finding solid players outside the top ten, both later in the 1st rd and in the draft, or trading for them.

Edmonton drafted #6 Gagne, #10 Paajarvi, #1 Hall, #1 RNH, #1 Yakupov, #7 Nurse, #3 Draitsail, #1 McDavid, #4 Puljujarvi, #10 Bouchard, #8 Broberg, missed the POs 12 of 13 years, then took 5 more years to lose in the SC finals. Took (4) 1st rd picks to hit the jackpot.

You can do the same exercise with Toronto, which has yet to get past the 2nd round.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

We compared the Avs to the Blues now?

While i'm here, who did those Blues teams lose to around their Cup time frame in the playoffs?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Shit, now I want to teach my wife craps, but she will become addicted to it. I know this. It is a risk. She'd never actually gambled before, and we started betting on random nonsense using Blackjack and a very simple version of 5 card poker without any draws, just what you're dealt is what you get for speed, and after she won a bunch of my Skittles I could see the gambling addiction taking hold in her eyes. She wants to go to a Casino now

I have The Email of things I saw in my time working for RANCH that I have sent out many, many times for anyone that gets the starry eyes.

Just be sure to point out the degens. They won't be hard to find.

 

[ponder719]

There’s also a big problem with quoting the Kings in any meaningful arguments. That specific advantage is long gone. You can’t replicate it.

Finding an incredibly stupid team to gift you the last remaining piece of your Cup winner? That's no sure bet, but it is replicable.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I have The Email of things I saw in my time working for RANCH that I have sent out many, many times for anyone that gets the starry eyes.

Just be sure to point out the degens. They won't be hard to find.

I've seen how instantly someone can get hooked. You can see it hit them. It's wild.



Edit: Anyway, another way Craps is a great analogy for all this is that there are play styles known as The Wrong Way and The Hard Way, so yeah. Yeahhhhhhh

 

[BernieParent]

I mean "maybe we'll get lucky" has worked out great for the Flyers the last 50 years, so obviously we should keep doing that.

"You never know."

Yes, yes we do.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Neither is tanking. Flyers are good at developing goalies. It's probably their strongest suit.

Tanking would require trading half the team, it's hard to be so bad you have a shot (not a guarantee) at #1. And most years, what you're getting from #2-5 is a good player, not a franchise player. After trading half the team (your better young players) you'll not only have to get lucky enough to land a franchise player, you'll also need to rebuild the team you traded away to tank.

Most of the teams that are SC contenders didn't do it by tanking, they did it by consistently finding solid players outside the top ten, both later in the 1st rd and in the draft, or trading for them.

Edmonton drafted #6 Gagne, #10 Paajarvi, #1 Hall, #1 RNH, #1 Yakupov, #7 Nurse, #3 Draitsail, #1 McDavid, #4 Puljujarvi, #10 Bouchard, #8 Broberg, missed the POs 12 of 13 years, then took 5 more years to lose in the SC finals. Took (4) 1st rd picks to hit the jackpot.

You can do the same exercise with Toronto, which has yet to get past the 2nd round.

I hate the way these things are phrased by both sides.

My position is always and forever this -- All progress made by your org as a result of players who will still solidly be in their prime when you're next ready to contend is good. All progress made by others would be better served taking another route.

It's not about tanking or not. It is about locking into a core on the same timeline.

 

[Beef Invictus]

And we are already two years behind on doing that with Michkov.