I think it'll have limited impact.
A lot of top players are going NCAA in any case, look at recent drafts, for 1-2 years.
And top players in the CHL often leave at 19 to the NHL so why would they go the college route?
And if you're still in the CHL in your D+2, you're going AHL rather than college when you turn 20.
It'll primarily help CHL players who aren't good enough to be drafted to get a college education on the cheap.
I have been starting to trend that it won’t affect the NHL that much either. But it will be significant for the AHL and ECHL. The problem may be in that you may, eventually, get more top guys who stay in school if the NIL money ever gets to a point where they make more staying there than what their two-way contract would be, and almost definitely for guys who sign AHL deals. That’s why you start to hear that schools may/would release players to play on tryouts after their seasons end, and then be able to return.
The top CHL prospects, likely won’t ever make it to the NCAA. There is a suggestion that the CHL will redo their transfer agreement to allow their top prospects to play longer in the AHL sooner, but be around for end of the season and playoffs. Among the questions I already have, how does really help the CHL to only have your meal-ticket players for half of the season. As I said, those types of guys are never seeing college hockey unless they hold out.
Does the door open for Europeans to play college? Even after playing pro?
What happens to the USHL and BCHL, and others? The BCHL left the Hockey Canada umbrella, and had teams leave the AJHL to joint them. Also had their only US team leave for the WHL. But their whole appeal was recruiting Canadian players who wanted to go to NCAA. USHL is very similar, but they’ve been trending that they’re starting to win over in recruiting. They managed to get Celebrini, Fantilli, Owen Power from Canada (all of them for the same team), they get some Europeans such as Levshunov. They are every bit equal to the CHL as a junior league to the point, with seemingly far less bureaucracy to the point where you hear rumors of a merger. But there’s going to be a lot of those guys squeezed out, and instead of going to college, may end up quitting the sport, so that’s not helpful.
USports may get gutted.
Very interesting story to watch play out of one is into the minutia of the sport.