Minnesota Wild General Discussion XIX

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71games GF 263 fantastic, GA 222 so far. we will finish over 240GA which i think is terrible. i blame the D, others blame the goaltending. suter / soucy / cole better than goligoski / kulikov / merrill / benn. feel free to prove me wrong. ps calgary only 178GA!
Ok
 
71games GF 263 fantastic, GA 222 so far. we will finish over 240GA which i think is terrible. i blame the D, others blame the goaltending. suter / soucy / cole better than goligoski / kulikov / merrill / benn. feel free to prove me wrong. ps calgary only 178GA!

We have.
 
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71games GF 263 fantastic, GA 222 so far. we will finish over 240GA which i think is terrible. i blame the D, others blame the goaltending. suter / soucy / cole better than goligoski / kulikov / merrill / benn. feel free to prove me wrong. ps calgary only 178GA!
calgary has markstrom.
 
71games GF 263 fantastic, GA 222 so far. we will finish over 240GA which i think is terrible. i blame the D, others blame the goaltending. suter / soucy / cole better than goligoski / kulikov / merrill / benn. feel free to prove me wrong. ps calgary only 178GA!
Minnesota is sitting 16th overall for GA (218). They are mid-pack.
 
The team is at 94 points right now. They are currently 8th all-time in franchise history if the season ended today. however, there are still 11 games to go. So if they roughly win 50% of their remaining games, they will finish likely tied with the franchise point record. Further elaboration: Wild currently has 44 wins, which is tied for 5th in franchise history. The most ever are 49 back in the 106 point season.

I'm usually late to the game with stats (not that they really matter), but some I am mildly excited to see the records get eclipsed finally.

Kaprizov:
Tied for most goals in a season (42)
Most Points in a season (89)
7th for most PP goals in a season (12) with the record at 15 by Rolston in 2005-06
Most ESP in a season (64)

Zuccarello:
Tied for most assists in a season (50)

Team:
6 Players over 20 goals (Foligno, Ek, Zucs, Fiala, Hartman, Kap)
2 players have played every game (Fiala/Hartman)
Most of the "starting lineup" players are hovering between 56-69
 
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71games GF 263 fantastic, GA 222 so far. we will finish over 240GA which i think is terrible. i blame the D, others blame the goaltending. suter / soucy / cole better than goligoski / kulikov / merrill / benn. feel free to prove me wrong. ps calgary only 178GA!
Ok. I'm operating under the assumption that xGF% is the best indicator of long-term success or failure. Looking at pairings (200+ minutes together), this is what we're looking at for xGF%:

Pairings:

21-22 D Pairings:
Goligoski-Spurgeon 56.3%
Brodin-Dumba 56%
Kulikov-Merrill 52.8%
Kulikov-Benn 42.2% (I wish the best for him as a person, but Benn really drags the D corps down)

20-21 D Pairings:
Suter-Spurgeon 56%
Brodin-Dumba 51.4%
Cole-Soucy 50.2%

There was less pairing juggling going on last year (likely due to more injuries this year) but overall the D-pairings this year have been as good or better than last year's. When there's stability (no injuries) 21-22's defensemen appear to be slightly better. If this is true, it means that the higher goals for is either due to overall team defense, or the goaltenders under-performing vs. last year.


Individuals:

Looking at the players individually, we see that the juggling has really effected their numbers:

21-22
Spurgeon 55%
Goligoski 51.3%
Dumba 49.3%
Brodin 48.1%
Middleton 48%
Merrill 42.5%
Kulikov 42%
Benn 39.1%

20-21
Spurgeon 53.1%
Suter 51.5%
Dumba 50.8%
Brodin 50.1%
Soucy 49.3%
Cole 47.9%

We see here that Goligoski has effectively replaced Suter, in spite of all the criticism against him. Spurgeon has actually been better this season. Everyone else has stumbled, which seems at odds with the d-pairing numbers which had the same players in them, yet higher %'s. I think this is probably explained by the sheer amount of d-pair juggling. None of those "bad" pairings have reached 200+ minutes. This further reinforces that the d-corps this year has been struggling mostly when there are injuries, leading to disruption of chemistry, and worse players playing (sorry Benn).


Goaltenders:

Finally, we need to look at the goaltenders. For this we'll use Goals Saved Above Expected. Higher numbers are better.

21-22
Talbot -5.4 (44 games)
Kahkonen 0.6 (most of this comes from his time with the Wild, 30 total games, 25 with Wild)
Fleury -15.5 (most of this comes from his time with Chicago, 50 total games, 5 with Wild)

20-21
Talbot -2.2 (33 games)
Kahkonen -13.1 (24 games)

Kahkonen was actually better this year, but played a smaller % of the games. Talbot has played a larger percentage of the games, and has been worse. Overall, I'd say it's near a wash.

Conclusion: The Wild rank 17th in GA this year, and ranked 15th last year, so... yeah, they're no better or worse defensively, really. Since Evason took over, they have played a more offensive game and, with the same goalies, they have been relatively equal in GA (relative to the rest of the league) each year regardless of personnel. Claiming one D-corps vs the other was better looks to be mostly a matter of personal preference at this point.

Oh, I should probably mention, all stats were collected from MoneyPuck.
 
Last edited:
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This is where the stats become deceiving by looking at just one stat (xgf% here). It doesn't account for usage (ToI, QoT, QoO, zone FO starts, etc.)

I could just as easily use 5v5 +/- for last season to say Soucy/Cole where MN's best d-pair (+17); and Brodin/Dumba was MN's worst pair (-2). It makes a very incomplete picture by just using 1 stat.

Simply put: where you start and who you play with/against matters.
 
This is where the stats become deceiving by looking at just one stat (xgf% here). It doesn't account for usage (ToI, QoT, QoO, zone FO starts, etc.)

I could just as easily use 5v5 +/- for last season to say Soucy/Cole where MN's best d-pair (+17); and Brodin/Dumba was MN's worst pair (-2). It makes a very incomplete picture by just using 1 stat.

Simply put: where you start and who you play with/against matters.
This is definitely true. I have also used rebound shots allowed as a way to mention the Wild's D-corps ability to limit 2nd chances in the past (I mention this only to say I understand other metrics are required for complete analysis). I just don't have the time to go into multiple metrics, even though doing so would be the objectively correct way to go about it. At that point, I might as well start turning it into a blog and getting paid for it.
 
According to Norwegian media, Zucc is having a baby! And it’s not 97’s…

Source: Tv2
Congratulations to Zucc and his girlfriend.
I am happy for the couple. Didn't knew he even had a girlfriend. Well well, Norway starving for hockey Dna.
But, let's go Wild.
 
Last edited:
Projections with 10 games to go:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kaprizov[/TD]
[TD]81[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zuccarello[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fiala[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hartman[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eriksson Ek[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foligno[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spurgeon[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boldy[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gaudreau[/TD]
[TD]76[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Goligoski[/TD]
[TD]74 [/TD]
[TD]2 [/TD]
[TD]31 [/TD]
[TD]33 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodin[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dumba[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greenway…[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kulikov[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Merrill[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duhaime[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Per 82 games:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kaprizov[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zuccarello[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fiala[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boldy[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hartman[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spurgeon[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eriksson Ek[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foligno[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gaudreau[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Goligoski[/TD]
[TD]3 [/TD]
[TD]35 [/TD]
[TD]38 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dumba[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodin[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greenway…[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kulikov[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Merrill[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duhaime[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Last edited:
The stat that stands out the most for that list is only 2 players haven't missed a game (yet) this year.
 
Projections with 10 games to go:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kaprizov[/TD]
[TD]81[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zuccarello[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fiala[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hartman[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eriksson Ek[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foligno[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spurgeon[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boldy[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gaudreau[/TD]
[TD]76[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Goligoski[/TD]
[TD]74 [/TD]
[TD]2 [/TD]
[TD]31 [/TD]
[TD]33 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodin[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dumba[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greenway…[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kulikov[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Merrill[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duhaime[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Per 82 games:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kaprizov[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zuccarello[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fiala[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boldy[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hartman[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spurgeon[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eriksson Ek[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foligno[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gaudreau[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Goligoski[/TD]
[TD]3 [/TD]
[TD]35 [/TD]
[TD]38 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dumba[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodin[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greenway…[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kulikov[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Merrill[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duhaime[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Pretty crazy that Zucc is on pace to match Gaborik's former point record, even with the missed games.
 
The blues forward group on paper is very deep. They don’t have the high-end scoring of Kaprizov or Zuccarello, but they’ve got quite a few Fiala-level producers (some slightly better). Kyrou, Thomas, Tarasenko a ppg or better. Schenn, Perron and Buchnevich are close to a ppg. O’Rielly, Barbashev and Saad producing at 60+p paces. Faulk, Krug, Parayko make up a string top 3. It will be a great series. We need home ice
 
The blues forward group on paper is very deep. They don’t have the high-end scoring of Kaprizov or Zuccarello, but they’ve got quite a few Fiala-level producers (some slightly better). Kyrou, Thomas, Tarasenko a ppg or better. Schenn, Perron and Buchnevich are close to a ppg. O’Rielly, Barbashev and Saad producing at 60+p paces. Faulk, Krug, Parayko make up a string top 3. It will be a great series. We need home ice
Perron just seems to plug away, year after year. Massively underrated player.
I think a lot of people thought Tarasenko was finished.
 
Projections with 10 games to go:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kaprizov[/TD]
[TD]81[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zuccarello[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fiala[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hartman[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eriksson Ek[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foligno[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spurgeon[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boldy[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gaudreau[/TD]
[TD]76[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Goligoski[/TD]
[TD]74 [/TD]
[TD]2 [/TD]
[TD]31 [/TD]
[TD]33 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodin[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dumba[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greenway…[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kulikov[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Merrill[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duhaime[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Per 82 games:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kaprizov[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Zuccarello[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fiala[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boldy[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hartman[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spurgeon[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eriksson Ek[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foligno[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gaudreau[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Goligoski[/TD]
[TD]3 [/TD]
[TD]35 [/TD]
[TD]38 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dumba[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brodin[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Greenway…[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kulikov[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Merrill[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duhaime[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Last 10 games, Kap has 9 goals and 4 assists. If he keeps that pace he will finish with 51 goals, 53 assists, 104 points.
Last 20 games, Kap has 18 goals and 8 assists. If he keeps that pace, he will finish with 51 goals, 53 assists, 104 points.

I'll trust his very consistent pace and predict he finishes with 51 goals, 53 assists, 104 points. ;)
 
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