Minnesota Wild General Discussion 2024-25

[Dr Jan Itor]

For my job, I think a lot about the value of things. Dumb people don't worry at all about the cost-to-value of anything but, equally bad, a lot of people worry about overpaying for stuff, and call it a day. The thing is, you can absolutely overpay for something and still win, as long as that thing is really high-quality - but it's a long-term approach and doesn't always work in the short term (but sometimes still does). With the NHL cap going up, I got thinking about it, and I wonder how close the reality of markets and technologies matches up with NHL player quality and contract costs.

What I'm getting at is, is it ok to drastically overpay for a Rantanen (or another good quality 1st liner), as long as you don't overpay for a 2nd-4th liner? What are your thoughts on this? Would a team become too top-heavy, or is that skill level required to win in today's NHL rather than winning by committee?

*edit* I think the real trap is overpaying for a borderline 1st liner. Brock Nelson, Brock Boeser, and Jamie Benn are good players, but they're not players you should overpay for this off-season. They'll command enough cap to hamstring your other efforts without bringing enough to the table. That's my theory anyway.

I've always had the contention that it's mostly pointless to have "bargain" contracts if you're not going to weaponize them to bring in high-end talent, even if you have to overpay a bit. I was saying this when it looked like Konecny might be in play and people were scoffing at anything over $8M for him.

Obviously you still have to keep your eye on the future for guys like Buium and Yurov, if things end going really well for them, you don't want to trap yourself when it comes to their 2nd deals.

 

[DANOZ28]

i just want to say good on both of you for speaking common sense. the world lacks people born with it!

 

[AKL]

I've always had the contention that it's mostly pointless to have "bargain" contracts if you're not going to weaponize them to bring in high-end talent, even if you have to overpay a bit. I was saying this when it looked like Konecny might be in play and people were scoffing at anything over $8M for him.

Obviously you still have to keep your eye on the future for guys like Buium and Yurov, if things end going really well for them, you don't want to trap yourself when it comes to their 2nd deals.

I've always thought the best way to weaponize the cap space you get from bargain contracts is to bring in more good players, rather than overpay the same amount of good players.

If you have 6 bargain contracts and 6 overpaid good players, it's a wash.

If you have 4 bargain contracts and 8 properly paid good players, that's a great team.

 

[Webster]

Zuccarello = bargain contract.

But yeah...he's tired now, these two weeks off will do him good.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I've always thought the best way to weaponize the cap space you get from bargain contracts is to bring in more good players, rather than overpay the same amount of good players.

If you have 6 bargain contracts and 6 overpaid good players, it's a wash.

If you have 4 bargain contracts and 8 properly paid good players, that's a great team.

What about a properly paid good player vs. an overpaid great player?

Zuccarello = bargain contract.

But yeah...he's tired now, these two weeks off will do him good.

Literally nobody asked.

 

[Webster]

Literally nobody asked.

Asked what? I'm just saying.

 

[AKL]

What about a properly paid good player vs. an overpaid great player?

I think in general it's better to never overpay anyone, but if Kaprizov is overpaid by 1M that's obviously fine, as an example.

Overall the point is more that I'd like to use the cap we get from bargain contracts to do stuff like have a #2 D on our second pair, or have a 2nd line wing on the third line, while still having guys in the appropriate roles playing above them.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think in general it's better to never overpay anyone, but if Kaprizov is overpaid by 1M that's obviously fine, as an example.

Overall the point is more that I'd like to use the cap we get from bargain contracts to do stuff like have a #2 D on our second pair, or have a 2nd line wing on the third line, while still having guys in the appropriate roles playing above them.

Then the question is, can you attain those players in the roles above that at market prices?

And obviously fairly paid, overpaid and underpaid are all subjective anyway, so it's not like there's a hard and fast answer.

 

[AKL]

Then the question is, can you attain those players in the roles above that at market prices?

And obviously fairly paid, overpaid and underpaid are all subjective anyway, so it's not like there's a hard and fast answer.

Well it's the goal anyway. If it was easy everyone would do it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Well it's the goal anyway. If it was easy everyone would do it.

Ok, let's consider actual names and numbers.

We currently have:
JEE at $5.25M
Boldy at $7M
Faber at $8.5M

Let's say you believe, based on your own internal market assessment, each of these players to be $1M below market, so $3M total.

Let's also say that we have the opportunity to not only re-sign Kaprizov this summer for $14M per year, but also to sign Rantanen in UFA at $14M per year. However, your market assessment for both of those players is $12.5M. So both players at $14M each would be $1.5M overpaid each, or $3M total.

Do you not find it a viable course of action to sign the Kaprizov and Rantanen contracts, knowing that they might be "overpaid" in order to keep + bring in 2 elite level talents, if the end result of these 5 players together is technically a wash in your own internal market assessment? With the consequence of not giving Kaprizov and Rantanen $14M each meaning that you now don't have both.

 

[AKL]

Ok, let's consider actual names and numbers.

We currently have:
JEE at $5.25M
Boldy at $7M
Faber at $8.5M

Let's say you believe, based on your own internal market assessment, each of these players to be $1M below market, so $3M total.

Let's also say that we have the opportunity to not only re-sign Kaprizov this summer for $14M per year, but also to sign Rantanen in UFA at $14M per year. However, your market assessment for both of those players is $12.5M. So both players at $14M each would be $1.5M overpaid each, or $3M total.

Do you not find it a viable course of action to sign the Kaprizov and Rantanen contracts, knowing that they might be "overpaid" in order to keep + bring in 2 elite level talents, if the end result of these 5 players together is technically a wash in your own internal market assessment? With the consequence of not giving Kaprizov and Rantanen $14M each meaning that you now don't have both.

I think it's viable, I just don't think it's ideal. Ideal would be bringing in both at 12.5 and then signing a 3M third liner to play on the fourth line.

But yeah if the alternative to both at 14 is neither at all, it's better to give both 14.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think it's viable, I just don't think it's ideal. Ideal would be bringing in both at 12.5 and then signing a 3M third liner to play on the fourth line.

But yeah if the alternative to both at 14 is neither at all, it's better to give both 14.

This is all I was saying. Especially since I'm guessing Rantanen (for example) at $12.5M would have multiple would-be suitors.

 

[Waiver Draft]