Frankly I’ll be ecstatic if we can somehow manage to keep Serg and Cirelli; keeping Cernak on top of them is highly unlikely unless both Serg and Cirelli are willing to take substantially less than they could get elsewhere to stay in Tampa.
A lot of people assumed that Blake Coleman was brought in to be Killorn’s replacement, and he may well end up being that, but I think BriseBois is also looking at him as a potential replacement for Cirelli if we’re priced out of keeping both of our key RFAs (as much as I would hate to lose Cirelli IMO you have to go with the future 1D over the superb 2C.) Coleman doesn’t have Tony’s offensive acumen but he can replace the defensive and PK contributions we’d be losing, and between the expansion draft and a potential cap increase we’d likely be able to resign him when his contract’s up. Hopefully it won’t come to that but it was going to be difficult before the cap flattened and nearly impossible now unless one of our NTC forwards is willing to waive.
There's very little chance Tampa is losing either Cirelli or Sergachev. Coleman is very likely gone after next year and in no way is he a replacement for Cirelli. Brisebois can definitely resign all 3 for 11-12 million, Serg between 4.5-5, Cirelli for 4-4.5 and Cernak between 2-2.5. All of these #'s on their bridges are very much in line to what they are worth based on production and comparables to other bridge deals, both in Tampa and around the league. By trading or using a compliance buy out on 2 of Killorn, Gourde and Johnson, Tampa has enough room, with a flat cap, to still ice a 21 or 22 player roster. The lineup could look something like this:
Stamkos-Point-Kucherov(24.75)
Coleman-Cirelli-Palat(11.35)
Johnson-Stephens-ABB/Volkov/Joseph(6.8)
Maroon-Verhaeghe-Goodrow(2.8)
46.5 with a 13th F at 800k
Hedman-Rutta(9.3)
McD-Cernak(9.25)
Serg-Foote(5.675)
Masin/Gaunce/Schenn as a #7
24.955
Vasilevskiy(9.5)
McElhinney(1.3)
10.8
With this 22 player roster they are approximately 750k over a cap of 81.5. I have little doubt a cap expert like JBB and his team can find a way to shave that or just run 21 if necessary. Tampa recoups good pick and/or prospect value out of Killorn, either CBO's one of Gourde/Johnson or convinces one to waive and gets some value, Paquette goes for a 3rd or 4th and Coburn maybe they have to throw something in. Coburn is the only piece that could be tricky in terms of value and the ntc, but if Cernak does get traded I guess he stays as 3LD or the #7 and Serg moves to 1 or 2RD with Rutta and Foote on that side as well. Rutta may not be resigned, but given that he was very solid defensively before the injury and likely comes in cheaper than Coburn or Bogosian, I would attempt to sign him again.