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Player Discussion: Mikhail Sergachev - Part 2

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We have to resign him priority one. We never had a young defenseman that talented at his age. Hedman was still learning the ropes then. I am not saying his full ceiling his higher or lower than Hedman's ceiling. He has the potential to be a true #1 like Hedman.
 
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I didn't buy into him having #1 potential until last/this year, mainly because his D game took such a dramatic shift. I figured he would improve defensively, but there were nights this season when he was dominant. With all the trouble we've had drafting top tier defensemen (since Hedman, obviously) it's nice that this one somewhat fell into our laps.
 
TheGreatOutlaw said:
We have to resign him priority one. We never had a young defenseman that talented at his age. Hedman was still learning the ropes then. I am not saying his full ceiling his higher or lower than Hedman's ceiling. He has the potential to be a true #1 like Hedman.
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It wasn’t going to be easy with a rising cap and it’s definitely not going to be easy with a flat one. We have to hope that he wants to stay in Tampa and that he’s willing to take a cheap one-year deal and bet that the cap will go up again after next season. Which isn’t impossible, but if one of the teams with plenty of cap space offers him a longterm deal commensurate with what he would only be hoping to get with a potentially increased cap next year he’ll be hard-pressed to turn it down.
 
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Sergachev can certainly be bridged for 3 years around 4.5 to 5 and that still allows Tampa to bridge Cirelli and probably Cernak as well. If Sergachev demands a contract similar to Provorov, it could still be possible to sign him long term and bridge Cirelli, but Cernak is then likely traded with no room left.
 
JTBF81 said:
Sergachev can certainly be bridged for 3 years around 4.5 to 5 and that still allows Tampa to bridge Cirelli and probably Cernak as well. If Sergachev demands a contract similar to Provorov, it could still be possible to sign him long term and bridge Cirelli, but Cernak is then likely traded with no room left.
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Frankly I’ll be ecstatic if we can somehow manage to keep Serg and Cirelli; keeping Cernak on top of them is highly unlikely unless both Serg and Cirelli are willing to take substantially less than they could get elsewhere to stay in Tampa.

A lot of people assumed that Blake Coleman was brought in to be Killorn’s replacement, and he may well end up being that, but I think BriseBois is also looking at him as a potential replacement for Cirelli if we’re priced out of keeping both of our key RFAs (as much as I would hate to lose Cirelli IMO you have to go with the future 1D over the superb 2C.) Coleman doesn’t have Tony’s offensive acumen but he can replace the defensive and PK contributions we’d be losing, and between the expansion draft and a potential cap increase we’d likely be able to resign him when his contract’s up. Hopefully it won’t come to that but it was going to be difficult before the cap flattened and nearly impossible now unless one of our NTC forwards is willing to waive.
 
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AndreRoy said:
Frankly I’ll be ecstatic if we can somehow manage to keep Serg and Cirelli; keeping Cernak on top of them is highly unlikely unless both Serg and Cirelli are willing to take substantially less than they could get elsewhere to stay in Tampa.

A lot of people assumed that Blake Coleman was brought in to be Killorn’s replacement, and he may well end up being that, but I think BriseBois is also looking at him as a potential replacement for Cirelli if we’re priced out of keeping both of our key RFAs (as much as I would hate to lose Cirelli IMO you have to go with the future 1D over the superb 2C.) Coleman doesn’t have Tony’s offensive acumen but he can replace the defensive and PK contributions we’d be losing, and between the expansion draft and a potential cap increase we’d likely be able to resign him when his contract’s up. Hopefully it won’t come to that but it was going to be difficult before the cap flattened and nearly impossible now unless one of our NTC forwards is willing to waive.
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There's very little chance Tampa is losing either Cirelli or Sergachev. Coleman is very likely gone after next year and in no way is he a replacement for Cirelli. Brisebois can definitely resign all 3 for 11-12 million, Serg between 4.5-5, Cirelli for 4-4.5 and Cernak between 2-2.5. All of these #'s on their bridges are very much in line to what they are worth based on production and comparables to other bridge deals, both in Tampa and around the league. By trading or using a compliance buy out on 2 of Killorn, Gourde and Johnson, Tampa has enough room, with a flat cap, to still ice a 21 or 22 player roster. The lineup could look something like this:
Stamkos-Point-Kucherov(24.75)
Coleman-Cirelli-Palat(11.35)
Johnson-Stephens-ABB/Volkov/Joseph(6.8)
Maroon-Verhaeghe-Goodrow(2.8)
46.5 with a 13th F at 800k
Hedman-Rutta(9.3)
McD-Cernak(9.25)
Serg-Foote(5.675)
Masin/Gaunce/Schenn as a #7
24.955
Vasilevskiy(9.5)
McElhinney(1.3)
10.8
With this 22 player roster they are approximately 750k over a cap of 81.5. I have little doubt a cap expert like JBB and his team can find a way to shave that or just run 21 if necessary. Tampa recoups good pick and/or prospect value out of Killorn, either CBO's one of Gourde/Johnson or convinces one to waive and gets some value, Paquette goes for a 3rd or 4th and Coburn maybe they have to throw something in. Coburn is the only piece that could be tricky in terms of value and the ntc, but if Cernak does get traded I guess he stays as 3LD or the #7 and Serg moves to 1 or 2RD with Rutta and Foote on that side as well. Rutta may not be resigned, but given that he was very solid defensively before the injury and likely comes in cheaper than Coburn or Bogosian, I would attempt to sign him again.
 
Tampa could also try to keep Coleman after next year since one of Palat or Johnson could be moved via trade or expansion draft, so depending how he does that is possible. I also based Cirelli's bridge on a cap % comparable to what Killorn, Palat and TJ took on their bridges, around 5% of the then cap. Cirelli at 4.25x3 is definitely a reasonable number.
 
JTBF81 said:
There's very little chance Tampa is losing either Cirelli or Sergachev. Coleman is very likely gone after next year and in no way is he a replacement for Cirelli. Brisebois can definitely resign all 3 for 11-12 million, Serg between 4.5-5, Cirelli for 4-4.5 and Cernak between 2-2.5. All of these #'s on their bridges are very much in line to what they are worth based on production and comparables to other bridge deals, both in Tampa and around the league. By trading or using a compliance buy out on 2 of Killorn, Gourde and Johnson, Tampa has enough room, with a flat cap, to still ice a 21 or 22 player roster. The lineup could look something like this:
Stamkos-Point-Kucherov(24.75)
Coleman-Cirelli-Palat(11.35)
Johnson-Stephens-ABB/Volkov/Joseph(6.8)
Maroon-Verhaeghe-Goodrow(2.8)
46.5 with a 13th F at 800k
Hedman-Rutta(9.3)
McD-Cernak(9.25)
Serg-Foote(5.675)
Masin/Gaunce/Schenn as a #7
24.955
Vasilevskiy(9.5)
McElhinney(1.3)
10.8
With this 22 player roster they are approximately 750k over a cap of 81.5. I have little doubt a cap expert like JBB and his team can find a way to shave that or just run 21 if necessary. Tampa recoups good pick and/or prospect value out of Killorn, either CBO's one of Gourde/Johnson or convinces one to waive and gets some value, Paquette goes for a 3rd or 4th and Coburn maybe they have to throw something in. Coburn is the only piece that could be tricky in terms of value and the ntc, but if Cernak does get traded I guess he stays as 3LD or the #7 and Serg moves to 1 or 2RD with Rutta and Foote on that side as well. Rutta may not be resigned, but given that he was very solid defensively before the injury and likely comes in cheaper than Coburn or Bogosian, I would attempt to sign him again.
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Compliance buyouts aren’t happening so your scenario would require somebody to waive his full NTC; like I said, if that happens we’re probably good but that’s a huge “IF”.

You’re also assuming nobody accepts an offer from another team - yeah, it’s rare, but these are also unprecedented circumstances and with no idea what the cap will be doing over the next several years our RFAs are going to be hard-pressed to turn down a good offer from a team with the cap space to make them one.
 
AndreRoy said:
Compliance buyouts aren’t happening so your scenario would require somebody to waive his full NTC; like I said, if that happens we’re probably good but that’s a huge “IF”.

You’re also assuming nobody accepts an offer from another team - yeah, it’s rare, but these are also unprecedented circumstances and with no idea what the cap will be doing over the next several years our RFAs are going to be hard-pressed to turn down a good offer from a team with the cap space to make them one.
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And you are assuming no cbo or cap relief is happening, I can play that game too. It's also much more likely that, even without a cbo, Tampa convinces a player to waive an ntc than losing one of them to an offer sheet(which, even if they happen, likely come from a dumpster fire franchise in a worse location and with much higher tax rates that they would very likely decline). Furthermore, Tampa could match an OS and still keep both, they'd just have to be willing to trade Cernak in that case. Teams, well at least ones that have competent management like Tampa, don't let rising young talent like Serg and Cirelli leave during their prime Cup window. Cernak may become a casualty, that is certainly possible, but not Serg or Cirelli.
 
JTBF81 said:
And you are assuming no cbo or cap relief is happening, I can play that game too. It's also much more likely that, even without a cbo, Tampa convinces a player to waive an ntc than losing one of them to an offer sheet(which, even if they happen, likely come from a dumpster fire franchise in a worse location and with much higher tax rates that they would very likely decline). Furthermore, Tampa could match an OS and still keep both, they'd just have to be willing to trade Cernak in that case. Teams, well at least ones that have competent management like Tampa, don't let rising young talent like Serg and Cirelli leave during their prime Cup window. Cernak may become a casualty, that is certainly possible, but not Serg or Cirelli.
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I hope you’re right; I just don’t see it being that easy.
 
BowDownToVasilevskiy said:

Saw Sergachev trending on Twitter in Canada, I think it was because of this article.
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Why would Sergachev sign an offersheet with a team that didn't give him a full chance to show what he can do before they traded him? If Sergachev signs an offersheet it won't be in Montreal especially with Bergervin still there, the guy who traded him.
 
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HoseEmDown said:
Why would Sergachev sign an offersheet with a team that didn't give him a full chance to show what he can do before they traded him? If Sergachev signs an offersheet it won't be in Montreal especially with Bergervin still there, the guy who traded him.
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I don't think he would sign an offer sheet there either. He seems to enjoy Tampa and is good friends with Vasilevskiy and Kucherov.
 
Five Alarm Fire said:
Sergy is an active guy on social media, I've been following him throughout quarantine.

40% of NHL influencers play for us :laugh:
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It's so funny to see him fishing off the bridge. There are trucks and SUVs and all sorts of vehicles you'd expect to be there and then his... BMW or whatever it is.
 
How Bergevin still has a job is beyond me.

The only guy bending over backwards to play there is Ilya Kovalchuk.

If Sergachev decides he's willing to entertain offer sheets, I have biiiig doubts Montreal will make the best offer, let alone be the team he decides to play for.
 
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DFC said:
How Bergevin still has a job is beyond me.

The only guy bending over backwards to play there is Ilya Kovalchuk.

If Sergachev decides he's willing to entertain offer sheets, I have biiiig doubts Montreal will make the best offer, let alone be the team he decides to play for.
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Have you seen his purple pants? Those have to count for something.
 
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