Player Discussion: Mikhail Sergachev - Part 2

[2020 Cup Champions]

7 forwards have NTC all ready so unless you can convince one to waive, then you're leaving Cirelli available for expansion.

On defence, hedman McDonagh and serg seem obvious but that leaves cernak and foote available.

This team is losing someone good regardless.
But it makes a lot more sense to try and move one of the lesser forwards with ntc if they will allow it, to gain cap rather than sergachev. That way you can protect Pirelli and gain cap room. Gourde?

On the trade board, IIRC, it was clarified that in Vegas expansion draft that NMCs, not NTCs, were required to be protected (the logic being that the draft wasn't made up of "trades").

 

[LightningStrikes]

On the trade board, IIRC, it was clarified that in Vegas expansion draft that NMCs, not NTCs, were required to be protected (the logic being that the draft wasn't made up of "trades").

This is true. NMCs (if not waived) must be protected, NTCs not.

Source: Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules same as Golden Knights followed

All players with no movement clauses at the time of the draft, and who decline to waive those clauses, must be protected and will be counted toward their team's applicable protection limits.

 

[The Macho King]

7 forwards have NTC all ready so unless you can convince one to waive, then you're leaving Cirelli available for expansion.

On defence, hedman McDonagh and serg seem obvious but that leaves cernak and foote available.

This team is losing someone good regardless.
But it makes a lot more sense to try and move one of the lesser forwards with ntc if they will allow it, to gain cap rather than sergachev. That way you can protect Pirelli and gain cap room. Gourde?

We're going 4-4 - Stamkos-Kucherov-Point-Cirellie; Hedman-Sergachev-McDonagh-Cernak. There's no decision here unless JBB expects McD to fall off a cliff for the last four years of his contract and leaves him exposed.

 

[Rschmitz]

At this point I think the best option come the expansion draft might be to expose McDonagh and pay Seattle not to take him. You don't want to lose Cirelli, Cernak, Foote, or Sergachev. If Killorn continues to play the way he has, that's an easy decision to make if you're Seattle. Or they may take TJ or Palat, all good players but nothing that is going to force our hand to deal off a blue chip prospect.

I wouldn't outright dismiss the idea of trading Sergachev though. No question he has tremendous value, but if he wants an insane contract this summer, JBB has to kick the tires to see what's out there.

 

[Rschmitz]

We're going 4-4 - Stamkos-Kucherov-Point-Cirellie; Hedman-Sergachev-McDonagh-Cernak. There's no decision here unless JBB expects McD to fall off a cliff for the last four years of his contract and leaves him exposed.

Agreed. If Seattle doesn't want to make a trade, and McD is still a solid #1/#2, this is the protection list that you go with.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

At this point I think the best option come the expansion draft might be to expose McDonagh and pay Seattle not to take him. You don't want to lose Cirelli, Cernak, Foote, or Sergachev. If Killorn continues to play the way he has, that's an easy decision to make if you're Seattle. Or they may take TJ or Palat, all good players but nothing that is going to force our hand to deal off a blue chip prospect.

I wouldn't outright dismiss the idea of trading Sergachev though. No question he has tremendous value, but if he wants an insane contract this summer, JBB has to kick the tires to see what's out there.

Sergachev is a no go seriously. He's getting better every day, & I don't think the kid can ask crazy money, he's a RFA on his first pro contract. He has a limited leverage at the moment. Unless he wins the Conn Symthe trophy or something. We're not there yet tho, by a long shot.

McD is the guy I would expose because of his age and well-being of the franchise on the long term, not his current contribution. There's a hard decision to make still; no matter how you spin it.

 

[AndreRoy]

With our current roster the obvious expansion plan is as follows:

- Stamkos (NMC)
- Kucherov (NMC)
- Point
- Cirelli

- Hedman (NMC)
- Sergachev
- McDonagh
- Cernak

- Vasilevskiy

There are two factors likely to change that equation. The first is our cap situation this summer, particularly as it relates to retaining Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak. Serg and Cirelli have both played themselves into good-sized contracts, and while Cirelli strikes me as the type to follow Point’s example and take less money to stay in Tampa, Serg doesn’t. So we may well be forced to choose between them. And even if we can somehow afford them both we would have to pinch pennies elsewhere in the lineup to do so, which could mean that Cernak might become a casualty in an effort to save an extra million or so.

The second factor is that we’re going to see an extra year of McDonagh and (assuming he’s still here) Cernak, along with Foote’s rookie season; that in turn will impact our decision as to which of them is worth protecting. Is McDonagh starting to decline? Has Cernak bounced back to the form of his rookie season or is that looking like an aberration? What does Foote look like?

There are certainly other factors that will come into play, including our 2021 cap situation and the continuing play of both our higher-priced veteran forwards and any expansion-eligible rookies. But ultimately the biggest impact on our expansion plans will come from what happens this summer with our RFAs and which of our defensemen look to be a part of our core moving forward; the forwards are a secondary concern as we can easily protect all the ones that truly matter.

 

[These Are The Days]

These expansion rules are f***ing crap... Every team in the history of ever got to protect like 8 forwards alone and now that's all we can hope to protect in total skaters leaving all of guys like Palat, Johnson, Gourde and Killer exposed

 

[BoltzManConstant]

With our current roster the obvious expansion plan is as follows:

- Stamkos (NMC)
- Kucherov (NMC)
- Point
- Cirelli

- Hedman (NMC)
- Sergachev
- McDonagh
- Cernak

- Vasilevskiy

There are two factors likely to change that equation. The first is our cap situation this summer, particularly as it relates to retaining Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak. Serg and Cirelli have both played themselves into good-sized contracts, and while Cirelli strikes me as the type to follow Point’s example and take less money to stay in Tampa, Serg doesn’t. So we may well be forced to choose between them. And even if we can somehow afford them both we would have to pinch pennies elsewhere in the lineup to do so, which could mean that Cernak might become a casualty in an effort to save an extra million or so.

The second factor is that we’re going to see an extra year of McDonagh and (assuming he’s still here) Cernak, along with Foote’s rookie season; that in turn will impact our decision as to which of them is worth protecting. Is McDonagh starting to decline? Has Cernak bounced back to the form of his rookie season or is that looking like an aberration? What does Foote look like?

There are certainly other factors that will come into play, including our 2021 cap situation and the continuing play of both our higher-priced veteran forwards and any expansion-eligible rookies. But ultimately the biggest impact on our expansion plans will come from what happens this summer with our RFAs and which of our defensemen look to be a part of our core moving forward; the forwards are a secondary concern as we can easily protect all the ones that truly matter.

All of this is a good take. But I think there's the possibility that we will have identified another young forward or two that we want to protect by the end of next season (Joseph, ABB, Stephens, ??).

At the end of the day, I don't think the protected list is going to be too critical. My money is on us incentivizing Seattle to take either Johnson or Palat -- frees up cap space, and keeps the rest of the roster intact. And for Seattle, either one seems like a talented, quality veteran presence I'd like to have on an expansion team. Obviously they'd rather have Kuch, Point, Heddy, Stammer, Serg, Cirelli or Vasy than either of those two, but there's no version of the protected list that will expose any of those guys.

edit: I probably should've include Gourde with Palat and TJ on someone we might try to push Seattle into taking. And I should note that my assumption is that Killer will be gone this coming offseason.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I'd protect Foote before Cernak. At least I would like to see if Cernak can bounce back a little better and if Foote continues to grow.

 

[Sky04]

Exposing McDonagh is stupid, he would easily be their best defenseman and you don't give up an asset like that for free. McDonagh eats up the most ice time on team after Hedman, while his offensive numbers have dipped that's an incredible workload to replace.

Value wise we might protect Foote over Cernak because there are more "Cernak's" available league wide and there's a higher chance they target one of our forwards in Gourde, Palat or Johnson over him. Either way JBB has to work Seattle into taking one of the forwards even if it includes an incentive trade, especially Gourde or Johnson who provide the least value at their caphits and easiest to replace.

 

[Byrddog]

7 forwards have NTC all ready so unless you can convince one to waive, then you're leaving Cirelli available for expansion.

On defence, hedman McDonagh and serg seem obvious but that leaves cernak and foote available.

This team is losing someone good regardless.
But it makes a lot more sense to try and move one of the lesser forwards with ntc if they will allow it, to gain cap rather than sergachev. That way you can protect Pirelli and gain cap room. Gourde?

I am pretty sure you have the option of exposing those with NTC's to expansion but you must protect NMC's someone correct me if I am wrong. Reguardless you have to protect Heddy and Mac or Heddy and Sergi if you want expose Mac then you protect Foote and Cernak you have to protect Stammer, Kuch, Point and one more forward So you are going to lose a good piece. Trade Sergi and you can protect an additional forward So Cirelli and Killer would be my guess then They take Palat or maybe Yanni another thing could play into it is moving Point from a cap standpoint that would make sense if the staff feel that Cirelli can slide into that spot. Point will break the bank with his next contract or will walk this is why I was not in favor of that bridge contract. Instead of paying Point 8 mil for 7 years he is getting 6.7 now and will probably get 9.5 to 10 after the bridge. I do not think we pay him that but there will be some team out there that will. It is going to be interesting to see how it shakes out but a big dollar player will be gone in 3 years but when will the move be made?

 

[LightningStrikes]

JBB could still work out a deal like Y did with Vegas for Garrison. I’m not too concerned with the expansion draft.

 

[Rschmitz]

Sergachev is a no go seriously. He's getting better every day, & I don't think the kid can ask crazy money, he's a RFA on his first pro contract. He has a limited leverage at the moment. Unless he wins the Conn Symthe trophy or something. We're not there yet tho, by a long shot.

McD is the guy I would expose because of his age and well-being of the franchise on the long term, not his current contribution. There's a hard decision to make still; no matter how you spin it.

That's no true any more, look at the RFA signings last offseason. We will be looking at 7M AAV for Sergachev, and probably 5M for Cirelli.

 

[Sky04]

I am pretty sure you have the option of exposing those with NTC's to expansion but you must protect NMC's someone correct me if I am wrong. Reguardless you have to protect Heddy and Mac or Heddy and Sergi if you want expose Mac then you protect Foote and Cernak you have to protect Stammer, Kuch, Point and one more forward So you are going to lose a good piece. Trade Sergi and you can protect an additional forward So Cirelli and Killer would be my guess then They take Palat or maybe Yanni another thing could play into it is moving Point from a cap standpoint that would make sense if the staff feel that Cirelli can slide into that spot. Point will break the bank with his next contract or will walk this is why I was not in favor of that bridge contract. Instead of paying Point 8 mil for 7 years he is getting 6.7 now and will probably get 9.5 to 10 after the bridge. I do not think we pay him that but there will be some team out there that will. It is going to be interesting to see how it shakes out but a big dollar player will be gone in 3 years but when will the move be made?

??? Move Point and then what? You guna find us another #1 C who will be 25 years old and less than 9m?

 

[EXTRAS]

I am pretty sure you have the option of exposing those with NTC's to expansion but you must protect NMC's someone correct me if I am wrong. Reguardless you have to protect Heddy and Mac or Heddy and Sergi if you want expose Mac then you protect Foote and Cernak you have to protect Stammer, Kuch, Point and one more forward So you are going to lose a good piece. Trade Sergi and you can protect an additional forward So Cirelli and Killer would be my guess then They take Palat or maybe Yanni another thing could play into it is moving Point from a cap standpoint that would make sense if the staff feel that Cirelli can slide into that spot. Point will break the bank with his next contract or will walk this is why I was not in favor of that bridge contract. Instead of paying Point 8 mil for 7 years he is getting 6.7 now and will probably get 9.5 to 10 after the bridge. I do not think we pay him that but there will be some team out there that will. It is going to be interesting to see how it shakes out but a big dollar player will be gone in 3 years but when will the move be made?

I feel like you would make fear based reactionary moves as a GM. You don't trade a 90+ pt 23 year old center and 40+ PT 21 year old dman who is gonna be a top pairing guy to fit under the cap. You have a lot of other less core pieces you move first.

 

[Byrddog]

I feel like you would make fear based reactionary moves as a GM. You don't trade a 90+ pt 23 year old center and 40+ PT 21 year old dman who is gonna be a top pairing guy to fit under the cap. You have a lot of other less core pieces you move first.

One of the two are going? You can not fit Kuch, Point, Stammer, Heddy, Mac, Sergi, and Vasi in 22-23 if these guys average 8.5 mil which is going to be realistic your almost at 60 mil in 7 players. The remainder of the team is going to be ELC's and 1 mil scrubs. No supporting bottom nine No Cirelli, no Yanni, No Killer no Palat no Johnny you become the post cup Hawks

 

[CupsOverCash]

JBB could still work out a deal like Y did with Vegas for Garrison. I’m not too concerned with the expansion draft.

We have been pretty good at figuring out solutions to whatever cap issues we seem to have. I feel good about it going forward I guess until they give me reason not to. However we will likely have to lose somebody that we dont want to at some point. Just the nature of the business.

 

[Hoek]

These expansion rules are ****ing crap... Every team in the history of ever got to protect like 8 forwards alone and now that's all we can hope to protect in total skaters leaving all of guys like Palat, Johnson, Gourde and Killer exposed

It was the previous rules that were crap. These guys are paying $500 million for an NHL team, not an AHL one.

 

[Boltswin]

It was the previous rules that were crap. These guys are paying $500 million for an NHL team, not an AHL one.

They’re not paying me (us) squat and they are taking one of my (our) Bolts

 

[JoVel]

It was the previous rules that were crap. These guys are paying $500 million for an NHL team, not an AHL one.

Yep. Everyone thought Vegas would be a lottery team but when they started winning games they started whining about the expansion rules. It's not their fault the league is filled with dumb GM's who decided to gift them their good players.

 

[Sky04]

Yep. Everyone thought Vegas would be a lottery team but when they started winning games they started whining about the expansion rules. It's not their fault the league is filled with dumb GM's who decided to gift them their good players.

I agree as well, the old rules were stupid and left expansion teams to sit in mediorcity for years on end. Vegas expansion was more than fair, if you go back and look at the time of the draft, that roster was unanimously laughed at and then 2 weeks into the season their "best player" fled to Russia. It's revisionist history to think Vegas was dealt a good hand, the biggest thing that influenced their SCF season wasn't even roster related, it was hiring a great coach.

 

[These Are The Days]

It was the previous rules that were crap. These guys are paying $500 million for an NHL team, not an AHL one.

While true back in the day, it's not going to be the case anymore. 20+ years ago when expansion was all the rage, save for a few truly great stars from places like the USA, Sweden, Finland, Russia and the former Republic of Czechoslovakia, it was Canada and then everyone else. The whole world had so much catching up to do. But now we're getting more quality players from more countries now than ever before. I feel like teams can be protected as they were before and the expansion teams will still get good players. It's no one's responsibility to make sure the expansion team is good. If you wanna do that then abolish the draft lottery and get over the stupid Alex Daigle thing from 1993 already. That way if the new team is bad they can build properly via the draft. LA, Pitt and Chicago and their 8 championships since 2008 have proven it can be done.

But I digress: the rules are the rules. At this point I'm just whining about them and need to shut it.

In a semi-related note: This why I laugh at Brett Hull dismissing the DPE as a consequence of talent dilution. Every time there's been an expansion scoring went UP. Naw bro. The first hockey game I ever watched was his Dallas Stars team with like 5 HHOF'ers on it vs the Devils with like another 4 HHOF'ers on it in the 1999 SCF. It was the most boring thing could have ever imagined. Scoring went down because I watched Dallas dump the puck in and Marty Brodeur swat it back the puck down the ice before the forecheck could even get there in a world where a 2 line pass was illegal. Thank God for the Mighty Ducks movies because if it wasn't for them I might've thought hockey was crap forever because of the DPE and never gave it a chance.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

That's no true any more, look at the RFA signings last offseason. We will be looking at 7M AAV for Sergachev, and probably 5M for Cirelli.

There's no way in this world that Sergachev earns more in his deal than Point.

I would try to sign him to an extension like Hedman's. That was 4 x 5 years, maybe a bit more with current salary cap. 4.5 x 5

 

[Rschmitz]

There's no way in this world that Sergachev earns more in his deal than Point.

I would try to sign him to an extension like Hedman's. That was 4 x 5 years, maybe a bit more with current salary cap. 4.5 x 5

That simply isn’t going to happen if Sergachev ends the year at his current pace. Sergachev has much better production than Hedman at the end of his ELC and RFAs are treated much differently. 5-6M minimum on a 3 year deal and it’ll be pushing 7M on 5+ years.