Mikhail Grabovski and Phil Kessel Snipes

[ponder]

Interactif, would you disagree with anything I say here?

Looking at playoff teams last year, Grabo would easily have been the #2 C on Chicago, Washington, Ottawa, Nashville (arguably #1), Phoenix (arguably #1) and Florida (arguably #1), and would arguably have been the #2 C on NYR, St. Louis, NJ and Philly. He's clearly a good #2 C, and good enough to be a #2 C on a contender, even if he isn't one of the absolutely elite #2 Cs (like Malkin, Zetterberg, Mike Richards, Kesler or Bergeron). I have him as a top 10 2nd line centre in the league last year, and he was better than a handful of 1st line centres as well.

He's not an elite #2 C, not one of those guys where you say "he'd be a #1 C on most other teams," but he's definitely a good #2 C. He would be a #2 C on many of the teams that made the playoffs last year. I really do not understand your obsession with bashing Grabo, he's one of the few positives on our team, and one of our best players.

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

Grabo's problem is consistency. If he wasn't so streaky, he could have easily been a 1st line player. He has the talent to go against other teams' top defenders and score.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Interactif, would you disagree with anything I say here?

He's not an elite #2 C, not one of those guys where you say "he'd be a #1 C on most other teams," but he's definitely a good #2 C. He would be a #2 C on many of the teams that made the playoffs last year. I really do not understand your obsession with bashing Grabo, he's one of the few positives on our team, and one of our best players.

Here is my list of contenders last year and the top 2 Center's on each team, as the list indicates he is not better than the vast majority of these center's. I know the usual suspects will come here and quickly point out his 51 points, not only do players on this list play on teams that require they play defence first, they bring more intangibles than Grabovski does. How many points would he get on Phoenix? Would he even be effective playing on one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, when he has twice padded his modest stats on twice 30th GA teams in his 4 years as a Leaf, and 29th GA last year. He could be a lateral replacement for Vermette but if you poll the main board any of the center's below against Grabo, he would be lucky to win 2x. He isn't the caliber of these guys. Heck he isn't better than Plekanec.

1-Van 1. Sedin 2. Kesler
2-NY R 1. Richards 2. Stepan
3-Pitt 1. Malkin 2. Crosby
4-St L 1. Backes 2. Berglund or Mcdonald (take your pick prior to Mcdonald's injury)
5-Boston 1.Krejci 2. Bergeron
6-Nashville 1. Legwand 2.Fisher
7-NJ 1. Zajac, 2 Henriques
8-Det 1. Datsyuk 2. Zetterberg
9-Phil 1. Giroux 2. Schenn
10-Chi 1. Toews. 2. Sharp/Bolland
1-SJ 1. Thornton 2. Couture
2-Phoenix 1. Hanzal 2. Vermette
13-LA 1. Kopitar 2. Richards

 

[ponder]

Here is my list of contenders last year and the top 2 Center's on each team, as the list indicates he is not better than the vast majority of these center's. I know the usual suspects will come here and quickly point out his 51 points, not only do players on this list play on teams that require they play defence first, they bring more intangibles than Grabovski does. How many points would he get on Phoenix? Would he even be effective playing on one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, when he has twice padded his modest stats on twice 30th GA teams in his 4 years as a Leaf, and 29th GA last year. He could be a lateral replacement for Vermette but if you poll the main board any of the center's below against Grabo, he would be lucky to win 2x. He isn't the caliber of these guys. Heck he isn't better than Plekanec.

1-Van 1. Sedin 2. Kesler
2-NY R 1. Richards 2. Stepan
3-Pitt 1. Malkin 2. Crosby
4-St L 1. Backes 2. Berglund or Mcdonald (take your pick prior to Mcdonald's injury)
5-Boston 1.Krejci 2. Bergeron
6-Nashville 1. Legwand 2.Fisher
7-NJ 1. Zajac, 2 Henriques
8-Det 1. Datsyuk 2. Zetterberg
9-Phil 1. Giroux 2. Schenn
10-Chi 1. Toews. 2. Sharp/Bolland
1-SJ 1. Thornton 2. Couture
2-Phoenix 1. Hanzal 2. Vermette
13-LA 1. Kopitar 2. Richards

You conveniently leave out teams like Nashville and Washington, showing your bias. You also show a pretty awful lack of knowledge about the league. For example, on Chicago you list Sharp/Bolland as the 2nd line C. Sharp played wing more or less exclusively last year, and he has literally not played centre full time since about 2007. Bolland has always been the 3rd line C. Last year Chicago had a revolving door all season long for the 2nd line C, giving the minutes to scrubs like Kruger, or trying to force Kane into the #2 C role when he's clearly way better suited to the wing. Anyone following that team would tell you that #2 C was a huge hole for them, Grabo would EASILY have been the 2nd line C on Chicago. As for Philly, Schenn was NOT their 2nd line C. Their top 4 centres were quite clearly Giroux/Briere/Couturier/Talbot, Schenn got spot minutes at C and on the wing through the season. As for St. Louis, there's no "take your pick," Andy McDonald has been a winger for years, it had nothing to do with his injury. On NJ, why do you always spell Henrique "Henriques"? There's no "s," and it's clearly not a typo as you spell it this way over and over again, my guess is that you've simply never watched him play. From this one post alone it's very clear that you don't really follow the NHL that closely, so why do you have such strong opinions?

Here's an actual list of playoff teams from last year on which Grabo would either have clearly been the 2nd line centre, or would arguably have been the 2nd line centre:

Clearly would have been the #2 C:
- Chicago (literally zero question, 2nd line C was easily their biggest hole last year)
- Washington (easily better than Mojo)
- Ottawa (easily better than Turris)
- Flordia (arguably the #1, easily the #2)
- Phoenix (easily #1 IMO, way better offensively than Hanzal, who is far better suited to a #2 role, but forced into the #1 role due to a lack of better options)

Arguably would have been the #2 C:
- Nashville (I think he's significantly better than Fisher and Legwand, and would be their #1 C, but I guess you could argue otherwise)
- NYR (I think he's better than Stepan, but you could argue otherwise)
- St. Louis (again arguable, this time with Berglund)
- NJ (an interesting case. They were playing Elias at C out of need because Zajac was hurt, normally he'd be a winger. It would come down to Zajac/Henrique/Grabo for the top 3 spots, and they're all at very similar levels. I could see him as anywhere from the #1 to #3 C)
- Philly (again, an interesting case. Briere is equally good at wing or C, if Grabo were on Philly last year I see him as the #2 C, with Briere moving to the wing)


Of the 16 playoff teams last year, I think he'd clearly be a 1st or 2nd line centre on 5, arguably a 1st or 2nd line centre on another 5, and wouldn't be the 2nd line centre on 6. Of the non-playoff teams, he would have been the 1st or 2nd line centre on every single one except Tampa (Lecavalier) and arguably Colorado (Grabo/ROR/Duchene would have been in a battle for the 2/3 spots).

Also, why do you keep saying "he's not even better than Plekanec" as if it's some sort of insult? Plekanec is a passable #1 C, and he would be an elite #2 C.

Again, virtually nobody is saying that Grabo is an ELITE #2 C, just that he's a GOOD #2 C. He would have been the #2 C on plenty of playoff teams, even the #1 C on some. He also would have been a #1 or #2 C on virtually every non playoff team.

 

[ponder]

I'm going to re-post this here, as it's relevant:

I'm just going to throw out a few stats for those who are interested. These stats are from www.behindthenet.ca, and I set a cutoff of 50+ games played per season to avoid players with small sample sizes.

2011/12:
- Grabo was 1st on the team in even strength on-ice corsi, by far. When Grabo was on the ice the Leafs had a corsi of 8.9, when he was off the ice our corsi was -6.0. This means that when he was on the ice the Leafs "outshot" their opponents by ~9 shots per 60 minutes, and when he was off the ice the Leafs were instead "outshot" by ~6 shots per 60 minutes. I put outshot in brackets, because corsi sums all shots directed at the net (shots on net, missed shots and blocked shots), not traditional shots on net. Basically, when Grabo was on the ice we dominated puck possession/zone time, when Grabo was off the ice we were dominated in terms of puck possession/zone time
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...36+37+38+39+40+47+48+49+50+51+52+53+54+55+56#
- Grabo was 2nd on the team in even strength +/- per 60 minutes. Only MacArthur was ahead of him, and MacArthur and Grabo generally played on the same line. Grabo and Mac were the only two Leafs with a positive even strength +/-
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...36+37+38+39+40+47+48+49+50+51+52+53+54+55+56#

2010/11:
- Grabo was again #1 on the leafs in ES on-ice corsi. 9.9 corsi when he was on the ice, -11.4 when he was off. The only Leafs with a positive corsi at all were Grabo and his linemates (Mac and Kulemin)
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...36+37+38+39+40+47+48+49+50+51+52+53+54+55+56#
- Grabo was #1 on the Leafs in ES +/- per 60 mins. The only Leafs with a positive +/- were Grabo and his linemates (Mac and Kulemin)
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...36+37+38+39+40+47+48+49+50+51+52+53+54+55+56#

2009/10:
- Grabo was #1 on the Leafs by far in ES on-ice corsi. 17.9 on, 4.3 off
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...36+37+38+39+40+47+48+49+50+51+52+53+54+55+56#
- Grabo was #1 on the Leafs by far in ES +/- per 60 mins. Only Grabo and Schenn had a positive ES +/-
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...36+37+38+39+40+47+48+49+50+51+52+53+54+55+56#


In one year you can write off corsi and +/- as an anomaly, but when Grabo is #1 on the team year in, year out in both corsi and +/- (with one season at #2 in +/-), that says something. For three years straight Grabo has ranked as our top 5 on 5 player, and it's obvious to see why when you watch him play. Extremely fast, fearless in terms of sacrificing the body to make plays, hustles like crazy all over the ice, has a very good shot, good hands, and is pretty dangerous with the puck in general. Even on some very bad Leafs teams, whenever Grabo is on the ice we consistently outshoot and outscore the opposition, and obviously when Grabo is off the ice we get badly outshot and outscored. He is a top notch even strength player, in my opinion a better player at even strength than anyone else on the Leafs (better than Kessel, Phaneuf and Lupul). He's not as great on the PP and PK, his strengths lie in his hustle, speed, and end to end play, while special teams are way more static and much more about positioning, but at even strength he's quite the player. Anyone ranking him as just an average #2 C has to watch this kid play more often, he'd be the best centre on quite a few teams in the league, and compared to #2 Cs he's behind only the elite. I don't think he's any worse than the 35th best centre in the league. As a #1 centre you might find his PP ability a bit lacking, but he's pretty ideal for the #2 role, which even strength play is the main focus (#2 centres tend to play on the 2nd, not the 1st PP unit).

Basically, this is very strong evidence that Grabo is the most effective even strength player on our team. Actually watching the Leafs backs this up as well, Grabo is a ball of energy out there, hustling his butt off while also displaying plenty of skill. He's good at retrieving the puck AND he's very dangerous with the puck. He's clearly one of the best players on our team, a fact that Leafs management agree with, as they just gave him a 5 year contract extension at $5.5 mil per year. Anyone watching the Leafs should be able to tell you that Grabo is one of the strong points of the team, Grabo at #2 C is one of the few things that we DON'T need to fix. I really cannot understand this negative obsession the odd posters have with Grabo, as if trading Grabo and replacing him with someone like Colborne or Kadri would actually improve our team, when in fact it would massively hurt our team.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I'm not going to quote you because really I have glanced at this smoke and mirror throw mud against the wall routine in hopes of bits sticking routine all too often.

Corsi stats do not prove if a player is a top 6 C, really it is tiring having to constantly point out how many great players rated low in corsi. But to point out just one part on how awful this stat is AGAIN, if a player misses an opposing net with a shot, his corsi went up. Proof it's a Terrible stat..Hope you guys learn and stop citing this nonsense. Plus the cut and paste jobs from pension puppets is not true dialogue.

Clearly would have been the #2 C:

- Chicago (literally zero question, 2nd line C was easily their biggest hole last year)

Maybe Bozak could fill in if this is the critaria of a good 2nd line C, certainly Plekanec can, and I would easily have Boland before Grabo. Nope, wrong.

- Washington (easily better than Mojo)

He is not better than Laich.

- Ottawa (easily better than Turris)

Were they a contender, or a middle to bottom feeder that got lucky last year?

- Flordia (arguably the #1, easily the #2)

Weiss and Goc are arguably better, certainly Weiss is. Plus they were not a contender last year.

- Phoenix (easily #1 IMO, way better offensively than Hanzal, who is far better suited to a #2 role, but forced into the #1 role due to a lack of better options)

Better offensively than Hanzal? Hanzal plays for one of the most defensive minded coach's in the NHL. Grabo is not a better player than Hanzal,

Arguably would have been the #2 C:
- Nashville (I think he's significantly better than Fisher and Legwand, and would be their #1 C, but I guess you could argue otherwise)

This one is truly delusional, much better, would love to see a poll on the main board. Silly homerish post. Fisher and Legwand are miles better than Grabo. Again they play for a defensive minded coach, and again comparing points or even strength points just shows a true lack of hockey knowledge.

- NYR (I think he's better than Stepan, but you could argue otherwise)
- St. Louis (again arguable, this time with Berglund)
- NJ (an interesting case. They were playing Elias at C out of need because Zajac was hurt, normally he'd be a winger. It would come down to Zajac/Henrique/Grabo for the top 3 spots, and they're all at very similar levels. I could see him as anywhere from the #1 to #3 C)
- Philly (again, an interesting case. Briere is equally good at wing or C, if Grabo were on Philly last year I see him as the #2 C, with Briere moving to the wing

I'm not going to go on, because this is just too silly, saying Grabo is just as good as the top 6 C's on Philly, NJ. STL, or NYR. There is no way he would win a poll or any GM would trade a top 6 C in that group for a center that has compiled 48-58 points on the 29th, and 30th worst GA 3 of the last 4 years. His Stats are not good for a fwd that played in a offence first team, with zero attention to defence. He should be getting more points than 51 when you play a system devoid of defence and all for offence. Put him with Hitchcock or Tippet, he's lucky to score 40 points.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I'm going to re-post this here, as it's relevant:

I ask you don't cut and paste again, really looks bad, that was one of the most erroneous, and slanted homerish posts I have read on this board since I've joined HF boards.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Goc is better than Grabo?

Hahaha

 

[Oiffub]

Man I watched them all, I miss hockey

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Goc is better than Grabo?

Hahaha

Notice you didn't try to argue that Weiss was better, maybe the masses are finally smartening up.

If Goc is the only one you disagree with, I won this part of the discussion.

One thing I do know Bozak was better than Grabo for parts of last year, even when Bozie lost Lupul. Unfortunately Grabo couldn't do what Bozie did, continue to produce when Lupul arguably the best all around fwd last year went down, produce when Kule went down.

Funny how a top 6 C on a contender to some here claim, can't produce when a 7 goal man goes down. It's almost comical.

 

[ponder]

I'm not going to quote you because really I have glanced at this smoke and mirror throw mud against the wall routine in hopes of bits sticking routine all too often.

Corsi stats do not prove if a player is a top 6 C, really it is tiring having to constantly point out how many great players rated low in corsi. But to point out just one part on how awful this stat is AGAIN, if a player misses an opposing net with a shot, his corsi went up. Proof it's a Terrible stat..Hope you guys learn and stop citing this nonsense. Plus the cut and paste jobs from pension puppets is not true dialogue.

Clearly would have been the #2 C:
Maybe Bozak could fill in if this is the critaria of a good 2nd line C, certainly Plekanec can, and I would easily have Boland before Grabo. Nope, wrong.


He is not better than Laich.


Were they a contender, or a middle to bottom feeder that got lucky last year?

Weiss and Goc are arguably better, certainly Weiss is. Plus they were not a contender last year.

Better offensively than Hanzal? Hanzal plays for one of the most defensive minded coach's in the NHL. Grabo is not a better player than Hanzal,

This one is truly delusional, much better, would love to see a poll on the main board. Silly homerish post. Fisher and Legwand are miles better than Grabo. Again they play for a defensive minded coach, and again comparing points or even strength points just shows a true lack of hockey knowledge.


I'm not going to go on, because this is just too silly, saying Grabo is just as good as the top 6 C's on Philly, NJ. STL, or NYR. There is no way he would win a poll or any GM would trade a top 6 C in that group for a center that has compiled 48-58 points on the 29th, and 30th worst GA 3 of the last 4 years. His Stats are not good for a fwd that played in a offence first team, with zero attention to defence. He should be getting more points than 51 when you play a system devoid of defence and all for offence. Put him with Hitchcock or Tippet, he's lucky to score 40 points.

I don't think you really "get" corsi. Corsi doesn't say "this player is the best," it's just a stat that is meant to estimate puck possession. The NHL doesn't measure puck possession, but it DOES measure all shots directed at the net. People have independently measured puck possession, and it correlated very well with shots directed at the net, more so than with any other stat. So corsi is the best stat that we have to measure puck possession when a player is on the ice, and by all reports it does it quite well.

In small sample sizes, I don't like to use team based stats (like corsi and +/-) to measure an individual's performance, there are just too many variables. But if a player is putting up better ES corsi and ES +/- than everone else on his team year after year, it's worth paying attention to. For three years straight, Grabo has consistently lead the Leafs in both ES corsi and ES +/-, often by wide margins (other than 1 year where he was 2nd in +/-). For three years straight, when Grabo is on the ice we have possession of the puck more than the opposition, and we outscore the opposition, more so than for any other Leaf. This is despite us having poor goaltending, poor team defence, and just being a weak team in general. Likewise, when Grabo is off the ice we get smashed in terms of both puck possession and +/-. You'd be foolish to ignore this, that's very strong evidence that Grabo is making a major impact for us at even strength. Simply watching the game completely backs this up as well, when Grabo is on the ice he's consistently having a very positive impact, buzzing all around the ice, recovering the puck, disrupting plays, and being dangerous offensively.

Obviously you think Grabo sucks. You think he's worse than Goc, worse than Hanzal, and way worse than guys like Fisher, Legwand and Bolland. I think he's way better than Goc, and a touch better than Hanzal, Fisher, Legwand and Bolland. He's not as good as guys like Plekanec and Krejci, but he's not THAT far off. I'm sure there are teams where he'd score less than he does on the Leafs, but there are also teams where he'd score more than he does on the Leafs. It's not like he's a 1 dimensional player who only puts up points, you make it sound like he's Kyle Wellwood or Sam Gagner. What makes Grabo a good player is his combination of great speed, good skill, excellent hustle, fearlessness (zero hesitation going to danger areas or taking hits to make plays), and his commitment to pressuring the puck and being in the thick of the play all over the ice. I personally think defensive minded coaches would love him because he's all hustle.

As I mentioned before, I don't think he's an elite #2 C. He is however a good one, solidly above average. He'd be the #2 C (or occasionally even the #1 C) on roughly half the playoff teams last year, and he'd be the #2 or #1 C on almost all non-playoff teams. On a Leafs team full of holes, Grabo is one of the few players where we can look and say "yeah, we have that position filled with a good player, no need to search for an upgrade." An upgrade at #2 C is pretty much at the bottom of our list of priorities.

I also strongly believe that he's one of the best players on the Leafs (top 4, along with Kessel, Lupul and Phaneuf), and that the main reason we don't play him with Kessel is that we'd be a 1 line team, and way too easy to shut down. All teams need at least 2 lines that are a threat to score, and Kessel and Grabo (and to a lesser extent Lupul) are really the only forwards who can consistently create offence out of nothing. If we put Kessel, Grabo and Lupul on the same line, our 2nd line would be beyond useless. Kulemin/Bozak/Mac would have been atrocious. Kessel and Lupul can score just fine with Bozak as their centre, but take Grabo off the 2nd line and the 2nd line becomes impotent.

 

[ponder]

Notice you didn't try to argue that Weiss was better, maybe the masses are finally smartening up.

If Goc is the only one you disagree with, I won this part of the discussion.

One thing I do know Bozak was better than Grabo for parts of last year, even when Bozie lost Lupul. Unfortunately Grabo couldn't do what Bozie did, continue to produce when Lupul arguably the best all around fwd last year went down, produce when Kule went down.

Funny how a top 6 C on a contender to some here claim, can't produce when a 7 goal man goes down. It's almost comical.

I'm not sure you understand the concept of variance. Yeah, Grabo had a rough end to the season, with 3 points in 10 games after Kulemin went down. However, earlier in the season he had similar cold streaks with Kulemin IN the lineup. From mid November to mid December, Grabo put up 3 points in 11 games. In February he went on a streak of 1 point in 9 games. All players go on hot streaks and cold streaks, that's just the nature of hockey. Sometimes the bounces go your way, sometimes they don't. Grabo putting up 3 points in 10 games after Kulemin went down means nothing, that's a standard cold streak that Grabo (and all players) go through regardless of who is in the lineup.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I don't think you really "get" corsi. Corsi doesn't say "this player is the best," it's just a stat that is meant to estimate puck possession. The NHL doesn't measure puck possession, but it DOES measure all shots directed at the net. People have independently measured puck possession, and it correlated very well with shots directed at the net, more so than with any other stat. So corsi is the best stat that we have to measure puck possession when a player is on the ice, and by all reports it does it quite well.

In small sample sizes, I don't like to use team based stats (like corsi and +/-) to measure an individual's performance, there are just too many variables. But if a player is putting up better ES corsi and ES +/- than everone else on his team year after year, it's worth paying attention to. For three years straight, Grabo has consistently lead the Leafs in both ES corsi and ES +/-, often by wide margins (other than 1 year where he was 2nd in +/-). For three years straight, when Grabo is on the ice we have possession of the puck more than the opposition, and we outscore the opposition, more so than for any other Leaf. This is despite us having poor goaltending, poor team defence, and just being a weak team in general. Likewise, when Grabo is off the ice we get smashed in terms of both puck possession and +/-. You'd be foolish to ignore this, that's very strong evidence that Grabo is making a major impact for us at even strength. Simply watching the game completely backs this up as well, when Grabo is on the ice he's consistently having a very positive impact, buzzing all around the ice, recovering the puck, disrupting plays, and being dangerous offensively.

Well we agree then with the bolded, corsi advanced stats should not be a determining factor in player comparisons. If anything you didn't mention it is a team stat more than an individual stat as It also measures shot at the net to the shot differential while a player was on the ice. This includes not just goals and shots on goal, but also shots that miss the net, and in some formulations, blocked shots. It's no wonder why Clarke Macarthur had such a high corsi number in 10-11 season. Team stat not invidual, lots of variations, do you not agree with this?

As for puck possession, it is only relevant for teams that play a puck possession game, like Detroit or Vancouver. Why Datsyuk is often rated high when Corsi is mentioned, though it's another thing to have Teddy Purcell rated high in corsi thus why this stat is so debatable. Regardless when people cite corsi stats, it is merely an attempt to gain a discussional advantage. Really I think and most hockey people would agree, they are hardly conclusive to a player's worth. Grabovski is a player that loves to have the puck, I and others have stated he often hogs the puck, and this is one of the reasons why he would not mesh well on the #1 line on the Leafs. Not because it would reduce the #2C line's effectiveness, but it would reduce Kessel's and Lupul's output. When I read quotes like this:

If we put Kessel, Grabo and Lupul on the same line, our 2nd line would be beyond useless.

I really question what you have been watching these past 4 years, since Grabo is not a gifted playmaker, but rather a goal scoring center. Can you imagine a line with these 3, who's going to be the 3rd man high with all 3 pressing the play for scoring opportunites? Kessel? Lupul? 2 of the most gifted offensive fwds on the team? It would be a defensive nightmare. Really illogical, something I hope you will think about. Reason why Bozak is a good fit on this line, just as Kulemin is a positive for Grabo and Macarthur, they are often the last men standing as the defensive consciences of their lines. Something you Grabo guys never seem to grasp. Putting 3 scorers on one line with conflicting styles is rarely the answer as some believe.