Player Discussion Mike Matheson

[Mrb1p]

This is a great post, it's a shame everyone will ignore it because it goes against their entrenched opinions.

The question remains where on earth are you going to replace what Matheson provides for $4.8 mil? Some of the boneheads on this board have tried to sell me that Arber Xhekaj would be a better option than Mike Matheson because that's the high level hockey knowledge we're blessed with on this site.

Totally agree that MM will need to be replaced, it's just not that easy because Xhekaj, Struble or some Hague guy are not the answer. Maybe Adam Engstrom could continue his growth and we get an answer there. Otherwise I don't think our cap structure is gonna allow us to sign a true replacement. Won't stop the usual suspects from crying a river and then floating down it together though.

We don't need to replace him, there's already two players better than him on the team and they are LDs.

Also Xhekaj had marginally better results than Matheson all over the board in the last two years:

It might be a good time to develop Xhekaj, start to use him on the PK and give him some minutes, who knows, we might even have a better player than what he is currently, which is about a similar player to what Matheson currently is.

Then we can use the 4.8 millions to get an actual vet that can play on the right side, instead of a vet that has to be coddled by one of our two 22 and 21 years old Ds to be not even adequate.

 

[Habs]

We don't need to replace him, there's already two players better than him on the team and they are LDs.

Also Xhekaj had marginally better results than Matheson all over the board in the last two years:

View attachment 1048248

It might be a good time to develop Xhekaj, start to use him on the PK and give him some minutes, who knows, we might even have a better player than what he is currently, which is about a similar player to what Matheson currently is.

Then we can use the 4.8 millions to get an actual vet that can play on the right side, instead of a vet that has to be coddled by one of our two 22 and 21 years old Ds to be not even adequate.

I bet they trade Arbs for a total wussy on the backend, just watch. A 2 way 'local boy' , 5'10 180lb 34yr old guy who's always dreamed of playing in Montreal.

 

[koivalev]

Hidden in plain sight

Lol they blocked shots at pretty much the same rate as any other top penalty kill pairing, had the 6th highest xGA/60 (with Islanders, SJS, Calgary, Detroit, and NJD being the only teams with a top PK pairing having a higher xGA/60). The only reason New Jersey had a good penalty kill? An elite 2nd wave PK, and Markstrom playing out of his mind just like Dobeš and Primeau did.

When Savard and Matheson were on the PK, Montreal's goalies had 3.16 GSAX/60 which is bonkers, and not a result of shot blocking, since their ~30 shots blocked/60 (as a PK unit) is pretty much middle of the pack for top pairing PK units. They're middle of the pack for high danger chances against/60, but the difference is they have the 3rd highest on-ice save% of any of the top units in the league.

This is evident from last year as well, except we didn't get bailed out by exceptional goaltending (Monty was decent but our backups were very much not). Because of that, and because of Matheson and Savard's league highest 12.01 xGA/60, we were 24th in PK%.

Matheson and Savard weren't some elite PKing unit, they're a pretty bad one that happened to get bailed out by exceptional goaltending this year.

 

[Miller Time]

Lol they blocked shots at pretty much the same rate as any other top penalty kill pairing, had the 6th highest xGA/60 (with Islanders, SJS, Calgary, Detroit, and NJD being the only teams with a top PK pairing having a higher xGA/60). The only reason New Jersey had a good penalty kill? An elite 2nd wave PK, and Markstrom playing out of his mind just like Dobeš and Primeau did.

When Savard and Matheson were on the PK, Montreal's goalies had 3.16 GSAX/60 which is bonkers, and not a result of shot blocking, since their ~30 shots blocked/60 (as a PK unit) is pretty much middle of the pack for top pairing PK units. They're middle of the pack for high danger chances against/60, but the difference is they have the 3rd highest on-ice save% of any of the top units in the league.

This is evident from last year as well, except we didn't get bailed out by exceptional goaltending (Monty was decent but our backups were very much not). Because of that, and because of Matheson and Savard's league highest 12.01 xGA/60, we were 24th in PK%.

Matheson and Savard weren't some elite PKing unit, they're a pretty bad one that happened to get bailed out by exceptional goaltending this year.

Habs defense bailed out by.... Checks notes... Caiden Primeau's stellar NHL goaltending.

If that's your take, so be it

 

[Miller Time]

I bet they trade Arbs for a total wussy on the backend, just watch. A 2 way 'local boy' , 5'10 180lb 34yr old guy who's always dreamed of playing in Montreal.

Why are you hating on Frankie Bouillon & Robidas?

Jokes aside, Arbs has a long way to go to be as effective as either of them were in their early 30's.

 

[koivalev]

Habs defense bailed out by.... Checks notes... Caiden Primeau's stellar NHL goaltending.

If that's your take, so be it

Do you understand statistics and sample sizes? Primeau didn't play much, but he didn't let in a single high danger chance in on the PK. Of any goalies with 5 games or more played, him and Dobeš were 5th and 3rd respectively in GSAX/60.

At even strength, Primeau was quite literally league worst in that stat. It just so happens that he got hot on the PK.

Primeau had a really weird season where he was absolutely elite on the PK, but was league worst at even strength in low danger s% above expected, 4th worst in medium, and in the bottom 1/3rd in high danger.

On the PK though? Lights out. Had nothing to do with Savard and Matheson, but in a 5 game sample size anything can happen.

 

[Miller Time]

Do you understand statistics and sample sizes? Primeau didn't play much, but he didn't let in a single high danger chance in on the PK. Of any goalies with 5 games or more played, him and Dobeš were 5th and 3rd respectively in GSAX/60.

At even strength, Primeau was quite literally league worst in that stat. It just so happens that he got hot on the PK.

Primeau had a really weird season where he was absolutely elite on the PK, but was league worst at even strength in low danger s% above expected, 4th worst in medium, and in the bottom 1/3rd in high danger.

On the PK though? Lights out. Had nothing to do with Savard and Matheson, but in a 5 game sample size anything can happen.

Do you understand hockey?

less time in front of stat sheets and more time getting familiar with the sport might help in your assessment. That you can't see the obvious hidden in your stat collection speaks to that. This ain't Moneyball lol

 

[koivalev]

Do you understand hockey?

less time in front of stat sheets and more time getting familiar with the sport might help in your assessment. That you can't see the obvious hidden in your stat collection speaks to that. This ain't Moneyball lol

Please tell me the hidden that wasn't explained by every stat I just posted. Why did we go from the 24th worst PK to the 6th best when nothing changed but our goalies' performance?

 

[Miller Time]

Please tell me the hidden that wasn't explained by every stat I just posted. Why did we go from the 24th worst PK to the 6th best when nothing changed but our goalies' performance?

"nothing changed but our goalies performance" is probably a good place to start in questioning the gaps in your analysis. SInce you enjoy stats so much, go take a peak at what other material variables changed year over year in the habs PK. some quite obvious ones should jump out at you quite quickly

then perhaps looking at other factors that might be constant as the goalies change aside from each of them showing a statistical bump on the PK not mirrored in the rest of their play.

stats without context are not of any value and make for some very poor assessments

 

[koivalev]

"nothing changed but our goalies performance" is probably a good place to start in questioning the gaps in your analysis. SInce you enjoy stats so much, go take a peak at what other material variables changed year over year in the habs PK. some quite obvious ones should jump out at you quite quickly

then perhaps looking at other factors that might be constant as the goalies change aside from each of them showing a statistical bump on the PK not mirrored in the rest of their play.

stats without context are not of any value and make for some very poor assessments

What changed? Savard and Matheson went from the lower xGA/60 to 6th lowest. Does that account for it? Or is it that their on ice save % went from 19th to 3rd?

 

[Miller Time]

What changed? Savard and Matheson went from the lower xGA/60 to 6th lowest. Does that account for it? Or is it that their on ice save % went from 19th to 3rd?

Personnel & deployment.

 

[koivalev]

Personnel & deployment.

They were getting top PK minutes in 2023-24 as well. Is it all in the forwards? Or is it that Primeau, for example, literally had a higher sv% on the PK than he did at even strength?

 

[Miller Time]

They were getting top PK minutes in 2023-24 as well. Is it all in the forwards? Or is it that Primeau, for example, literally had a higher sv% on the PK than he did at even strength?

Funny that you think it's "either/or"... Also funny that you don't consider the impact of actual time (go back and look at the D deployment), nor the impact of year over year consistency/familiarity.

Again, gotta ground your stay pack within the context of the sport. Names and numbers on a sheet don't capture the full picture of humans problem solving in the real world.

 

[koivalev]

Funny that you think it's "either/or"... Also funny that you don't consider the impact of actual time (go back and look at the D deployment), nor the impact of year over year consistency/familiarity.

Again, gotta ground your stay pack within the context of the sport. Names and numbers on a sheet don't capture the full picture of humans problem solving in the real world.

They had quite literally the exact same deployment this year and last year, except for how many games Savard played each year (2:40 a game last year, 2:41 this year).

I will give Matheson a bit of credit though - Savard very clearly negatively impacted things when he was on the ice with him (9.86 xGA/60 with Savard on the ice vs 8.59 without - still not good, but better). Same is true for last year, with 12.01 with him on the ice vs 8.99 without.

Hard to compare across pairings obviously since they typically face PP1 whereas our 2nd wave usually faces PP2 and will often start on the fly rather than with a face-off in our end. That being said, those rates fall dramatically (9.86 to 5.91) without either of them on the ice (alternatively titled the "Guhle" effect).

Regardless, Matheson would not be difficult to replace on the PK (Struble and Guhle could take his minutes), and Savard's impact could be recreated with pretty much anyone who can fog a mirror.

 

[Habs]

Why are you hating on Frankie Bouillon & Robidas?

Jokes aside, Arbs has a long way to go to be as effective as either of them were in their early 30's.

I have a feeling they are going to give him away and we lose all regular season toughness in our own end. Struble isn't an answer, we got Hutson, MM.. nobody really to go into the corners with an ounce of hesitation. I think we are going to regress if they don't fix the backend, even Fatsos departure is going to hurt the team this year. We are a small blueline , Reinbacher is making the team this year either. What do you think? They should trade for some D this year?

 

[sampollock]

Trade him

 

[koivalev]

I have a feeling they are going to give him away and we lose all regular season toughness in our own end. Struble isn't an answer, we got Hutson, MM.. nobody really to go into the corners with an ounce of hesitation. I think we are going to regress if they don't fix the backend, even Fatsos departure is going to hurt the team this year. We are a small blueline , Reinbacher is making the team this year either. What do you think? They should trade for some D this year?

No need to shit on the guy with nicknames, but his departure will do anything but hurt the team, he was (well, should have been) unplayable last year

 

[Sorinth]

They had quite literally the exact same deployment this year and last year, except for how many games Savard played each year (2:40 a game last year, 2:41 this year).

I will give Matheson a bit of credit though - Savard very clearly negatively impacted things when he was on the ice with him (9.86 xGA/60 with Savard on the ice vs 8.59 without - still not good, but better). Same is true for last year, with 12.01 with him on the ice vs 8.99 without.

Hard to compare across pairings obviously since they typically face PP1 whereas our 2nd wave usually faces PP2 and will often start on the fly rather than with a face-off in our end. That being said, those rates fall dramatically (9.86 to 5.91) without either of them on the ice (alternatively titled the "Guhle" effect).

Regardless, Matheson would not be difficult to replace on the PK (Struble and Guhle could take his minutes), and Savard's impact could be recreated with pretty much anyone who can fog a mirror.

Two seasons ago they rarely practiced special teams because MSL wanted the focus to be on 5on5 play. And then last summer spoke about how the upcoming season he was going to give more of a focus on special teams during the year. That's the most likely reason we saw an improvement with our special teams, we started to actually work on them.

 

[koivalev]

Two seasons ago they rarely practiced special teams because MSL wanted the focus to be on 5on5 play. And then last summer spoke about how the upcoming season he was going to give more of a focus on special teams during the year. That's the most likely reason we saw an improvement with our special teams, we started to actually work on them.

And that would account for the reduction in xGA, but that pairing was still 6th worst in the league. The biggest change, by far, is the goaltending they received when they were on the ice.

 

[Sorinth]

And that would account for the reduction in xGA, but that pairing was still 6th worst in the league. The biggest change, by far, is the goaltending they received when they were on the ice.

xGA is inherently flawed because the stat only cares about where the shot was taken from and not how much cross ice passing there was or whether the goalie is being screened, etc... So it's entirely possible to end up with a high xGA while doing a good job at preventing cross ice passing, or by helping keep the front of the net clear.

It's just not reliable enough for what you are trying to use it for.

 

[koivalev]

xGA is inherently flawed because the stat only cares about where the shot was taken from and not how much cross ice passing there was or whether the goalie is being screened, etc... So it's entirely possible to end up with a high xGA while doing a good job at preventing cross ice passing, or by helping keep the front of the net clear.

It's just not reliable enough for what you are trying to use it for.

And that would be fair if Montembeault's PK stats had changed much, but beyond the expected reduction in HDCA/60, they really didn't. In fact, he let in goals at a higher rate this year than he did last year.

The difference is, last year Allen and Primeau (ESPECIALLY Allen) were some of the worst goalies in the league on the PK (-1.52 and -1.01 GSAA/60). This year? Dobeš and Primeau at 0.98 and 1.03 GSAA/60 respectively.

If it were structural you'd expect the same to hold true for Montembeault, except he went from 1.23 GSAA/60 last year to -0.41 this year. If xGF was unreliable, you'd expect him to hold his numbers at the very least, but his went down (and same for high danger GSAA - Allen and Primeau were awful last year, Monty was great - this year, Monty wasn't very good, Dobeš and Primeau were great).

The improvement in systems brought our xGA/60 down, but only to 6th worst rather than league worst for our top unit.

 

[Sorinth]

If xGF was unreliable, you'd expect him to hold his numbers at the very least

No I wouldn't

 

[koivalev]

No I wouldn't

If the system implemented was the reason our PK got so good all of a sudden (and not our league highest high danger save% and 2nd highest save% on the PK), then you'd think the xGF stat would be flawed in that it didn't take into account the passing or anything before the shot, and yet Monty's numbers got significantly worse, while our backups were lights out.

Montreal got better on the PK obviously (as evidenced by our xGA/60 going from league worst to 7th worst overall), but the massive jump is because our goalies saved like 12 goals more than they should have on aggregate than they should have (which would put us right back in the mid 20s).

Maybe there's some brilliance to the system that I didn't see, but it looked a lot like me like we were giving up a ton of chances and getting bailed out, and the stats back that.

(To standardize, the average team is at ~2.2 goals saved above expected on the PK, which includes those in the negatives. Montreal is at over 12.)

 

[Miller Time]

I have a feeling they are going to give him away and we lose all regular season toughness in our own end. Struble isn't an answer, we got Hutson, MM.. nobody really to go into the corners with an ounce of hesitation. I think we are going to regress if they don't fix the backend, even Fatsos departure is going to hurt the team this year. We are a small blueline , Reinbacher is making the team this year either. What do you think? They should trade for some D this year?

I hope you're wrong about their valuation of X... And, I think the contract they gave him last year & his overall usage suggests you underestimate their perception of his value.

If they do trade him, I'd bet it's for a massive relative return (for a 6-7 dman)... Doubt he'd be "given away".

Id love for us to acquire a legit top 4 RD if the right deal or signing is there, but I also wouldn't force the issue.

If all we do is swap Savard for RB (or Mailloux, whomever wins the spot in camp) in our top 7, I think we'll be relatively unchanged in terms of D performance.
While Savard brought more to the team than many credit him for, he was not very effective at ES.

Hutson, Guhle, Strubble & Xhekaj all should be a bit stronger next season. Plateaus and setbacks are possible, but at their age, as a group they should represent a net improvment year over year.

Carrier getting a full camp on top of his quick adjustment last year should also equate to a bit of improvement.

Matheson could well benefit from Guhle/Hutson further alleviating his workload.

Hutson Guhle
Matheson Carrier
Xhekaj Strubble
RB/Mailloux

That's not a bad status quo and affords the team the luxury of being patient rather than needing to overpay in a summer where demand will be up considerably.

 

[dcyhabs]

Hes not even a top 4 D on this team, can we stop lying?

So he’s third pairing but playing 25 minutes per game? I agree the habs were short of a good top 4 this year, and Matheson might not be top 4 on better teams, but he’s playing top minutes on the habs. Trying go get current players to take those minutes will expose a bunch of guys. If they trade him for a better D, fine. If they acquire enough D that he is superfluous, fine. For the moment the team needs his minutes.