Player Discussion Mika Zibanejad

[Leetch3]

I'll give you Eichel is younger but the last two seasons, including a Covid ridden 15 games where he had 3 points Mika is outproducing him.

Prorating it to an 82 game season Mika has 93 points pace and Eichel has an 88 point pace. And this is once again including 15 games where Mika had 3 points.

the argument for eichel over mika isn't short term though. if you are talking next year, obviously you keep mika who already has chemistry with our forwards and won't cost assets to get...but what about 6 years from now when mika is 34 and eichel is 30?

there are lots of reasons to not trade for eichel starting with the cost...but the age difference is really only a factor if you are looking toward the end of the contract

 

[SA16]

the argument for eichel over mika isn't short term though. if you are talking next year, obviously you keep mika who already has chemistry with our forwards and won't cost assets to get...but what about 6 years from now when mika is 34 and eichel is 30?

there are lots of reasons to not trade for eichel starting with the cost...but the age difference is really only a factor if you are looking toward the end of the contract

When Eichel is 30 and lying on the couch at home resting with a bad neck I think we might prefer Mika.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Is the player rebellion on pause as well?

Won't know for sure until Kakko sits for his summer interview with Finnish reporters.

 

[Ola]

Eichel was also on pace to score 8 goals this year in 82 games. He hasn't been able to bring his team close to the POs ever. I have big concerns for him just as I did with Brad Richards. I think he make the most sense for a solid strong team, that doesn't have top end ability. But I would be concerned about how he would do for a team like ours. Would he match-up well against the top lines around us?

I just don't think he is a good counter to guys like Barzal, Aho, even Crosby can be mentioned, Tampa's speed and so forth. If we were talking about like Barzal, I would be willing to go all in without any doubt. But Eichel just doesn't do it at all for me. JMHO.

 

[True Blue]

Yes, David

Whew...here you had me worried that the locker room was in complete disarray and there were signs for Knoblauch everywhere.

 

[SA16]

Can we stop using “on pace” like it means anything other than bad math?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Can we stop using “on pace” like it means anything other than bad math?

I think pro-rated numbers during a shortened season are fine.

Where I draw the line is someone saying "He was on pace for 30 goals" when he scored 29 in 75 due to an injury. But in a 56-game season, it's fine to pro-rate numbers to an 82-game season

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Can we stop using “on pace” like it means anything other than bad math?

Approximations are not bad math ...

 

[Rangeri]

So he is 29 when this contract ends. What kind of deal people are comfortable giving him?
I think that 5 x 9 is pretty fair considering current situation. If he nails next season maybe 6 years, but that is definitely max for me. Its very possible that we can challenge after these guys are done, so it's not like "heck it, we just give you 8 years, because there is no tomorrow"

And I think teams has to change this odd way that they are paying players top dollars when they are not even playing. Just so stupid to complain about contracts when you are handing them like candy. Pay them when they are young and if they are older, stop giving them term.

If Mika is still playing very good at 34-35, it's top dollars, but year by year.

 

[jay from jersey]

And right there is the catch 22. Any deal involving Eichel would very likely include one of those three. Just seems like too steep a price to get a player that doesn't add that much more than what Zbad is already doing in the same position.

Yea it’s definitely a tough call. But even if you lost 1 and the deal is made, the rangers would also most likely get a high end piece back for Zibby as the team dealing for him would want to extend him. Think stone situation. Maybe they get a more physical little less skilled guy and a 1st. I don’t know it’s a shitty situation. I love Zibby and he dominates the teams he should but I have my doubts with him when the ice becomes smaller in the playoffs as well. If he wants 6-7 years I don’t think that’s a pill I can swallow. He was great value on this deal and it was fun watching him take the next step. Also for everyone who brings up Eichel’s injury history, mikkas concussion/ injury history is not exactly stellar either. Like I said, this can’t even be entertained until Eichel comes back from neck surgery and proved he’s still Eichel. Not a shell of his former self

 

[SA16]

I think pro-rated numbers during a shortened season are fine.

Where I draw the line is someone saying "He was on pace for 30 goals" when he scored 29 in 75 due to an injury. But in a 56-game season, it's fine to pro-rate numbers to an 82-game season

Prorating numbers is never fine. Why would you assume a constant sh% and such? It's lazy and wrong.

 

[21]

Here's another Swedish trait; we're typically very loyal towards our group. If we have connections with people, we don't easily break our commitment unless forced to

Big OT warning:

You are right and this is actually the secret behind the Vikings as well.

Superhumans, no, I am sad to write this but there are no superhumans, only in the sagas. Super strong groups and loyalty is something else which do exist from time to time, ok, it helped a bit too with their strange religion and not being afraid of dying. ;-)

 

[Chimpradamus]

Eichel was also on pace to score 8 goals this year in 82 games. He hasn't been able to bring his team close to the POs ever. I have big concerns for him just as I did with Brad Richards. I think he make the most sense for a solid strong team, that doesn't have top end ability. But I would be concerned about how he would do for a team like ours. Would he match-up well against the top lines around us?

I just don't think he is a good counter to guys like Barzal, Aho, even Crosby can be mentioned, Tampa's speed and so forth. If we were talking about like Barzal, I would be willing to go all in without any doubt. But Eichel just doesn't do it at all for me. JMHO.

Yes, without any doubt I would also sign Barzal over Eichel. He has the driving quality that wins games. He's on a rival team, but I have to admit he's really efficient at what he does. He drives the play really well and was a godsend for the Islanders barn.

But, so has Zibanejad been. He is a hockey dictator on the ice when he's in his flow, it's as simple as that. Eichel doesn't just because he's a very skilled player. Eichel doesn't carry the line. That's what you want in a core player.

It's the mixture of qualities that matters. Eichel on the right team would be a star, say he would play in Pastrnak's role in Boston. He would probably outshine Pastrnak. Boston can afford that, NYR can't. That's also why I laughed when Buffalo signed Adam Hall, because it was such an outlandish mixture of the qualities the team actually needed. Their owners are terrible in the extent of their terrible GM signings. New York fans can at least be happy the team wasn't owned by owners like in Buffalo.

Big OT warning:

You are right and this is actually the secret behind the Vikings as well.

Superhumans, no, I am sad to write this but there are no superhumans, only in the sagas. Super strong groups and loyalty is something else which do exist from time to time, ok, it helped a bit too with their strange religion and not being afraid of dying. ;-)

Even bigger OT: This cultural trait of being very loyal is very easy to attain when the world you live in is a frozen wasteland. You quickly learn you need the help of others to survive and grow. It's also why I culturally think the Nordic nations were so quick to revolt and become protestants in the 30 year war in the 1600s. They couldn't submit to one monoteistic truth even after centuries of that rule and were very eager to change that in a grand war.

 

[Chimpradamus]

Kakko + Zibby + 1st for Eichel?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Prorating numbers is never fine. Why would you assume a constant sh% and such? It's lazy and wrong.

Because it's the best we've got? That's how forecasts are often done in the real world.

 

[duhmetreE]

"Immediately after the Swede began to snap out of it, mention was made that Zibanejad had reported to camp after losing dramatic amount of weight over the offseason. Our best information now indicates that No. 93 indeed had radically changed his diet between leaving last summer’s bubble in Toronto and reporting to New York in January. That may have been a factor."

It's hard to know what to make of Mika Zibanejad's Rangers season

 

[SA16]

Because it's the best we've got? That's how forecasts are often done in the real world.

They aren't. Usually you do current data + projected data/time * time remaining. How you calculate projected data is a different story but it's not just assume nothing changes. Ex. Assume we know a baseball player is a true talent 40 HR hitter. If he hits 20 HR in his first 40 games we should expect him to finish the year with 20+40/160*120 = 50 HR not 20/40*160 = 80 HR.

Why would we say Colin Blackwell is on pace for 25 goals? That's not true. Is he also on pace to shoot 20% or does that not count because it is a rate? It's just bad and lazy statistics to do it that way.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Prorating numbers is never fine. Why would you assume a constant sh% and such? It's lazy and wrong.

Because it is the only data we have to work with

 

[SnowblindNYR]

They aren't. Usually you do current data + projected data/time * time remaining. How you calculate projected data is a different story but it's not just assume nothing changes. Ex. Assume we know a baseball player is a true talent 40 HR hitter. If he hits 20 HR in his first 40 games we should expect him to finish the year with 20+40/160*120 = 50 HR not 20/40*160 = 80 HR.

Why would we say Colin Blackwell is on pace for 25 goals? That's not true. Is he also on pace to shoot 20% or does that not count because it is a rate? It's just bad and lazy statistics to do it that way.

Well there are players that are exceptions. Mika also wasn't on pace for 12 or so points this season. But Panarin this season and last season hasn't played a full season and has been on pace for roughly identical numbers. I work in FP&A and most of the forecasting is done using historical data and some is done using insight for sure. If you know what the shooting percentage would be that wouldn't be a forecast that would be an actual.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Because it is the only data we have to work with

That and prorating also provides perspective. If a player has 40 points in 60 games it's harder to know what to make of that considering we're using to thinking of production in terms of 82 game seasons.

 

[SA16]

Because it is the only data we have to work with

Prorating is not data. It is manipulating data.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Prorating is not data. It is manipulating data.

Every forecast is manipulating data. If you're not manipulating data it's called actuals.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Prorating is not data. It is manipulating data.

I never said it was. It's a projection.

 

[ElLeetch]

Kakko + Zibby + 1st for Eichel?

The cost to upgrade Zibby to Eichel is not Kakko and a 1st.

 

[Kaapo Bustfreniere]

The cost to upgrade Zibby to Eichel is not Kakko and a 1st.

Indeed. I do NOT even think Eichel is better than Mika. I am even inclined to say that Mika at this point in time is clearly the better player (excluding his postcovid form). So the only thing we would be paying for is the extra years on Eichel´s contract (and the extra peak years compared to Mika). That is how we should assess the price we are willing to pay for Eichel.

And in my eyes, the price I am willing to pay for that is quite low. And because Mika is never going to Buffalo (as he would never sign an extension there), that trade is never happening (at least not one that wouldn´t piss me off monumentally).