Melvin's 2021-22 NHL Team Projections

[HockeyNightInAsia]

I see Vancouver doing much better as well, but there is no need to fret about the model results.

Every summer I do my own worksheet fantasy projections and before that I always make my rough team views, which I am sure is why everyone is making their own right now. . Someone like Dom is great but whenever I read his analysis I'd make my own soft-data adjustments. Models aren't gonna completely wipe out one bad season, even if it averages across three seasons. It's up to our personal views to see how much we account for that.

But models do speak. There must be a reason Nashville is ranked high. There must be a reason the model predicts Washington aging out while Pittsburgh not yet. Those model results could help inform us.

 

[Sinistril]

There must be a reason the model predicts Washington aging out while Pittsburgh not yet.

The reason could easily be a poorly specified model. Not even criticizing OP for his model. I just have advanced degrees in a field that has clung onto poorly specified models for generations so I am pretty hesitant to trust opaque models.

 

[Melvin]

The reason could easily be a poorly specified model. Not even criticizing OP for his model. I just have advanced degrees in a field that has clung onto poorly specified models for generations so I am pretty hesitant to trust opaque models.

"All models are wrong, some are useful"

 

[HockeyNightInAsia]

The reason could easily be a poorly specified model. Not even criticizing OP for his model. I just have advanced degrees in a field that has clung onto poorly specified models for generations so I am pretty hesitant to trust opaque models.

Well, you can interpret my response as chasing Melvin for an explanation for WSH vs PIT, so hey we could be at same level of criticism. .

 

[Melvin]

What would your rankings be if you removed goaltending?

We had this discussion last year about the volatility of goaltending and in your last year's rankings it's actually pretty interesting - you had Dallas #1 based on a huge goaltending boost that reversed this year but SJ right at the bottom based on a goaltending mess that did actually materialize.

Also how did you project LA's goaltending to get them at #28 at that position? I would be assuming that the excellent Cal Peterson would be getting 55-60 starts and be carrying the mail there as he did down the stretch last year.

OK this was really dumb. LA was 15th, not 28th. It was just a copy/paste error when I wrote the post. Thanks for catching it.

 

[Melvin]

Well, you can interpret my response as chasing Melvin for an explanation for WSH vs PIT, so hey we could be at same level of criticism. .

I don't know if I have a concrete explanation. Crosby/Malkin have not been caved in defensively the way Ovechkin has despite being the same age, they are better at drawing penalties, and Jarry/DeSmith project pretty well despite Jarry having a poor year last year.

 

[JAK]

@Melvin would you be doing a year end analysis so we can tell where your projections went wrong?

 

[Melvin]

minor update: I've removed Tuch as he is expected to miss the majority of the season. I still had him in Vegas's lineup when I wrote the post. This drops Vegas's differential down a little bit and there's a virtual tie for the top 3 spots.

 

[logan5]

I would sincerely like it if these people would tel me based on their own critical analysis where they have the Canucks ranked. Is it 20? Is it 10? Top 5? At least I’m willing to put it out there.

To the people who think I’m missing the mark, I’d like to know by how much you think I’m missing. You think the Canucks will be 18? A marginal difference not worth complaining about? You think they’ll be in the top 10 teams in the league? What?

Imo, the Canucks d isn't nearly as bad as people here think. I think it's average.

Our forward group is one of the best in the league, but on top of that, I am betting Pettersson takes a step forward and puts up close to 100 points. Even if Pettersson plays in the point per game range, and everybody plays as expected, the Canucks are an easy top 3 in the division, but I'm expecting a big year from Pettersson, so I will say 103 points and the Canucks finishing 8th overall.

edit- I think you meant goal differential rankings. Oops.

 

[RussianRacket]

Canucks will be a top 8 team.

 

[Melvin]

Imo, the Canucks d isn't nearly as bad as people here think. I think it's average.

Our forward group is one of the best in the league, but on top of that, I am betting Pettersson takes a step forward and puts up close to 100 points. Even if Pettersson plays in the point per game range, and everybody plays as expected, the Canucks are an easy top 3 in the division, but I'm expecting a big year from Pettersson, so I will say 103 points and the Canucks finishing 8th overall.

edit- I think you meant goal differential rankings. Oops.

Where do you have them ranked, and which teams do you have ahead of them?

 

[Melvin]

@Melvin would you be doing a year end analysis so we can tell where your projections went wrong?

That's the idea.

 

[Jimnastic]

For the people who are outraged at where the Canucks rank, where do you put them and who (other than Seattle) do you have behind them that I have ahead?

Like, 22nd is not that bad! They were 24th last year, and 19th in the year before that you guys think was some sort of massive success. I thought pretty much everyone would have them in the 15-20 zone, no? So I'm probably only slightly lower than most. And enough things could change in the coming months to bump them up a bit.

Interesting what the numbers say. But I am going to say that we will wind up being much higher than 22. I am going to predict we will be between 6 and 14 (unless there are major injuries).

As much as I wanted Benning to wait a year until all the garbage naturally fell of the Canuck's back, I think Benning has assembled a very balanced team. Unfortunately, we have done it by mortgaging our future. (almost no draft picks, or prospect pool, and increasingly painful cap hits going forward)

I think our 3 forward lines are going to be at least top 8. Petey is going to have much more room now that teams are going to have to deal with 3 scoring lines. Our fourth line should be solid. I look for scoring from 3 lines. And a lot of it, as the strength of our defence is going to be their offence capability. This year they are going to have a lot of players to make outlets to.

Our goaltending should be top 10.

The big question is how our defence is going to perform in our zone? Ever being the optimist, I think they are going to be a lot more effective than the haters expect. There is certainly the possibility that we are going to give up a lot of good chances. Demko was bloody brilliant on stopping quality chances last year. Halak is better than Holtby for back up...and they have Di Pietro if we have an injury.

So if we are as porous as the haters think....14th place. If our defence really gels, 6th.

 

[logan5]

Where do you have them ranked, and which teams do you have ahead of them?

I admit my methodology isn't as sophisticated as yours, so I am going to only stick to the Canucks. At the risk of looking foolish, with Pettersson being a 100 point player, I would rank the Canucks forward group as 5th best going into next season. In addition to Garland, the Canucks have added Podkolzin and Hoglander going into year 2. The offence is deep and very talented. The defence is average, but should produce lots of offence, with 3 point producing d men. I can see Hughes getting in the 70 to 80 point range.

Canucks are going to score a lot more than they get scored on. I will predict +30. That will be good for 8th best in the league. Same as the predicted finish in the overall standings.

 

[Paulinbc]

minor update: I've removed Tuch as he is expected to miss the majority of the season. I still had him in Vegas's lineup when I wrote the post. This drops Vegas's differential down a little bit and there's a virtual tie for the top 3 spots.

Vegas losing Tuch? IMO he was one of the drivers of that team. Lots of pressure on Lehner this year too.
Interesting.

 

[RobertKron]

I admit my methodology isn't as sophisticated as yours, so I am going to only stick to the Canucks. At the risk of looking foolish, with Pettersson being a 100 point player, I would rank the Canucks forward group as 5th best going into next season. In addition to Garland, the Canucks have added Podkolzin and Hoglander going into year 2. The offence is deep and very talented. The defence is average, but should produce lots of offence, with 3 point producing d men. I can see Hughes getting in the 70 to 80 point range.

Canucks are going to score a lot more than they get scored on. I will predict +30. That will be good for 8th best in the league. Same as the predicted finish in the overall standings.

How can you make a confident and precise ranking of the Canucks in isolation when you are ranking them against 31 other teams?

 

[MS]

I admit my methodology isn't as sophisticated as yours, so I am going to only stick to the Canucks. At the risk of looking foolish, with Pettersson being a 100 point player, I would rank the Canucks forward group as 5th best going into next season. In addition to Garland, the Canucks have added Podkolzin and Hoglander going into year 2. The offence is deep and very talented. The defence is average, but should produce lots of offence, with 3 point producing d men. I can see Hughes getting in the 70 to 80 point range.

Canucks are going to score a lot more than they get scored on. I will predict +30. That will be good for 8th best in the league. Same as the predicted finish in the overall standings.

There have been 3 seasons in the past 25 years where a defender has scored 80 points.

100 points makes Pettersson ~top-3 offensive producer in the NHL from a guy who has been a ~70 point player previously.

These things *might* happen but surely you can see that the odds of it are probably lower than of making a more reasonable projection?

If Pettersson scored 80 points and Hughes 65 that would be massive, but it's still 20% lower than your projection.

I'd also argue that given the effect we've seen wrist injuries have on Boeser and his shot, it's a hell of a dangerous game to just assume that Pettersson will skip past his serious wrist injury and be better than ever.

 

[VanillaCoke]

I'd like to add the wrist injuries to Mikheyev and Drouin seemed both to have significant impacts.

 

[logan5]

How can you make a confident and precise ranking of the Canucks in isolation when you are ranking them against 31 other teams?

I have a pretty good idea of how good the other teams are, but I cannot give a precise ranking for each team without studying each teams current roster, and I don't want to do that. Most people don't want to do that.

The 19/20 Canucks imo more accurately reflected what the team is/was. That year they were +10 in DIFF. 20/21 had so many absurd circumstances that you couldn't possibly judge the team from that season.

So when you look at the 19/20 team, then add Garland, Hoglander, Podkolzin, and Dickinson, and also add that our young guys are now a more mature group, this years forward group is vastly better. I think the defensive group is at least equal overall. You could argue the top pair was better than this years top pair, but the bottom pair of Rathbone and Poolman or Myers is far superior to Stecher and Benn, so overall our d is equal imo.

With those factors in mind, the Canucks goal differential will increase drastically from 19/20. I predicted +30.

 

[logan5]

There have been 3 seasons in the past 25 years where a defender has scored 80 points.

100 points makes Pettersson ~top-3 offensive producer in the NHL from a guy who has been a ~70 point player previously.

These things *might* happen but surely you can see that the odds of it are probably lower than of making a more reasonable projection?

If Pettersson scored 80 points and Hughes 65 that would be massive, but it's still 20% lower than your projection.

I'd also argue that given the effect we've seen wrist injuries have on Boeser and his shot, it's a hell of a dangerous game to just assume that Pettersson will skip past his serious wrist injury and be better than ever.

This is going to be a high scoring team. We have a deep and talented forward group, coupled with a defensive group that includes Hughes, OEL, and Rathbone. Even if Pettersson plays at the same level, this forward and defensive group pumps up his numbers by 10 points or so.

 

[MS]

I have a pretty good idea of how good the other teams are, but I cannot give a precise ranking for each team without studying each teams current roster, and I don't want to do that. Most people don't want to do that.

The 19/20 Canucks imo more accurately reflected what the team is/was. That year they were +10 in DIFF. 20/21 had so many absurd circumstances that you couldn't possibly judge the team from that season.

So when you look at the 19/20 team, then add Garland, Hoglander, Podkolzin, and Dickinson, and also add that our young guys are now a more mature group, this years forward group is vastly better. I think the defensive group is at least equal overall. You could argue the top pair was better than this years top pair, but the bottom pair of Rathbone and Poolman or Myers is far superior to Stecher and Benn, so overall our d is equal imo.

With those factors in mind, the Canucks goal differential will increase drastically from 19/20. I predicted +30.

This is going to be a high scoring team. We have a deep and talented forward group, coupled with a defensive group that includes Hughes, OEL, and Rathbone. Even if Pettersson plays at the same level, this forward and defensive group pumps up his numbers by 10 points or so.

You are making the classic 'optimistic fan' error in these sorts of projects where you're assuming everything that went great in prior years holds steady and everything that went wrong will be fixed by new moves. And then projecting exponential improvement on all young players, which doesn't happen.

As an example the 19-20 team had JT Miller and Tanner Pearson having massive outlier career seasons and combining for 140 points/82 GP. If they get to 100 this year, you'd take it. Alex Edler scored at an ES pace that year that none of our defenders are likely to match.

Likewise, Podkolzin and Hoglander are unlikely to contribute more than Virtanen and Leivo/Toffoli contributed that year, but you're counting them as 'major additions'.

People projected 'breakout to superstar!' in 19-20 for Pettersson. Didn't happen. Projected it again in 20-21. Didn't happen.

Our defense is very, very bad. The only way you can rationalize it as good is by point-counting with the assumption that 4 different guys all somehow play on the #1 PP unit.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

I admit my methodology isn't as sophisticated

Or exists at all, for that matter.

 

[logan5]

You are making the classic 'optimistic fan' error in these sorts of projects where you're assuming everything that went great in prior years holds steady and everything that went wrong will be fixed by new moves. And then projecting exponential improvement on all young players, which doesn't happen.

As an example the 19-20 team had JT Miller and Tanner Pearson having massive outlier career seasons and combining for 140 points/82 GP. If they get to 100 this year, you'd take it. Alex Edler scored at an ES pace that year that none of our defenders are likely to match.

Likewise, Podkolzin and Hoglander are unlikely to contribute more than Virtanen and Leivo/Toffoli contributed that year, but you're counting them as 'major additions'.

People projected 'breakout to superstar!' in 19-20 for Pettersson. Didn't happen. Projected it again in 20-21. Didn't happen.

Our defense is very, very bad. The only way you can rationalize it as good is by point-counting with the assumption that 4 different guys all somehow play on the #1 PP unit.

Are you trying to say this years forward group is not that much better, and won't score more? If that's the case I strongly disagree.

Maybe you are making the classic "pessimistic fan" error.

Virtanen was playing in a second line role most of the time. Garland is our second line RW now, which is a huge upgrade for our second line. That leaves Hoglander, Podkolzin, and Dickinson as our possible 3rd line. That is a vastly better 3rd line. There shouldn't be any doubt that our forward group is much deeper than the 19/20 team.

 

[logan5]

Or exists at all, for that matter.

That's your post? A personal insult. Good work.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

That's your post? A personal insult. Good work.

What's the insult? You yourself stated you can't be bothered to do the work, which is fair enough. There are things I'd like to explore but I don't have the time for. Nothing insulting about that at all.