Melvin
21/12/05
I was going to wait a bit, but I see that other projections are already coming out so I feel like doing mine.
I started a thread about this last year but I ran into a myriad of problems. First, I didn't do a good job keeping rosters up to date, and then I got banned from the forums, and also I changed jobs a few times and moved back to Canada, and just sort of abandoned the project. So I'm going to try again!
My overall methodology is covered in the old thread so I won't go over it again, other than to say a few things:
1) I have identified and fixed a number of bugs in my code, including one that was causing all the numbers to be so low across the board.
2) I am keeping the rosters up to date, basically just going to CapFriendly every day and adding any new signings. Thus these rankings are still somewhat in flux and I might post like weekly updates or something if anyone cares or if there is some big transaction that moves the needle somewhere.
3) All RFA's are projected to be with their teams. So Pettersson/Hughes ARE included for the Canucks.
4) Various players are assumed out for the season until I hear otherwise: Tuukka Rask, Shea Weber, Oscar Klefbom, Jonathan Toews, Micheal Ferland, etc are not included in projections. If some new info pops up that indicates they will play this season, then I will update. Please feel free to post that for me in this thread.
5) Bear in mind I am projecting goal differential and ranking the teams based on goal differential. I have not, at this point, taken the schedule into account and run any actual simulations.
I think that's it. Goal differential is calculated by considering the rosters, projecting ice time of all the players, and constructing ES/PP/PK rates separately taking into account the penalty drawing/taking rates of the players involved (and their ice time.) If you want more details on the methodology see the linked thread from last year. Oh, and I am just looking at regulation time, and not empty netters or silly things like that.
I have done my best to estimate usage but in some cases, especially with the goaltending, usage isn't 100% clear so feel free to chime in on anything you know that I may not (like what in the f*** Philadelphia is doing in net.)
OK, one last thing. There is still 2 months before the season starts and if say some Jack Eichel player were to Jack Eichel be traded like Jack Eichel for example, Jack Eichel, then I can update these (although ...... well, you'll see where Buffalo is already.)
THE RANKINGS
1. VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
ES Offense: 1st
ES Defense: 23rd
PP: 3rd
PK: 5th
Goaltending: 5th
Overall Goal Differential: +40
I've seen some consternation that Vegas has had a bad off-season but the numbers love Robin Lehner, don't see goaltending being an issue and still love the team's offense. They should still be a force.
2. COLORADO AVALANCHE
ES Offense: 12th
ES Defense: 1st
PP: 1st
PK: 18th
Goaltending: T-20th
Overall Goal Differential: +38
Not a lot separating #1 from #2. The numbers prefer Vegas offense but Colorado defense. Francouz is probably underrated as he's a 31-year-old goalie with limited NHL data who didn't play last year, so that could be a wild card, not that they really need one.
3. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
ES Offense: 2nd
ES Defense: 21st
PP: 8th
PK: 4th
Goaltending: 1st
Overall Goal Differential: +38
Hey, what can I say. I don't like it either. Goaltending, 1st? The Leafs? Well, yeah. Mrazek and Campbell both project extremely well, and I am assuming 50/50 usage for now. Much with the rest of the roster, people tend to evaluate goalies based on star power of their starter, but if you look at the last 4 or 5 years, the team with the best goaltending has been a team with an effective tandem of goalies that basically split time (Bishop/Khudobin, Greiss/Lehner, etc.) This IMO works better (in the regular season) than having 1 elite guy and 1 scrub, but we'll get to Tampa Bay.
4. SEATTLE KRAKEN
ES Offense: 19th
ES Defense: 8th
PP: 12th
PK: 3rd
Goaltending: 3rd
Overall Goal Differential: +18
Uh oh. I'm gonna get heat for this one. Just to be perfectly clear, this is not based on the success of Vegas. The numbers know nothing about this. It is true that some players are likely overrated because they are selected from very good teams and it's unclear if they will be as effective on a new team, but I don't have a great way to control for this (if anyone has some opinions on how one can approach that problem, please post them. I can go into greater detail of why it's an issue.)
As it stands, Seattle looks like a very good, well-rounded team with middling offense but with great overall ES play and excellent goaltending. Say what you will about the Grubauer signing (I thought it was strange as well,) but there is no denying that Grubauer/Driedger should be a terrific tandem next year and their overall defensive play should make up for their relatively weak offense. But we'll see! Part of the reason I am posting so much detail is so I can analyze easily what specifically was off once the season concludes.
One last thing. Note that the overall goal differential took a big drop between 3 and 4 here. There is a bit of a gap in what looks like the elite-3 and the next tier.
5. CAROLINA HURRICANES
ES Offense: 5th
ES Defense: 10th
PP: 2nd
PK: 30th
Goaltending: T-20th
Overall Goal Differential: +15
Hmmm. So they let 25 year old Nedeljkovic go and are rolling with two 32 year olds with a heavy injury history. This could really go a lot of ways. Either they run a solid 50/50 tandem and both Andersen and Raanta excel under a lighter workload, or it could completely implode on them. The numbers are not too impressed, but the rest of the team is undeniably very good and sees them as a top team even if the goaltending ends up not working out, which means if the goalies actually do play well then they could be elite-tier.
6. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
ES Offense: 6th
ES Defense: 5th
PP: 23rd
PK: 7th
Goaltending: 17th
Overall Goal Differential: +13
Say what? back-to-back cups and they are in 6th? Well, yes, you see, this is regular season rankings. Let me explain. In the playoffs, you can just play Andrei Vasilivskiy in every game, and that works fine. It works quite fine, just ask them! But in the regular season, you need two goalies. Tampa more or less decided that they don't give a f*** about this and are willing to punt 15 games every year when they don't use Vasilivskiy, because they can still just get to the playoffs and then roll him every game. Last year they started Curtis McIlhinney 12 times and went 4-6-2 in those games. They appear set up to do a similar thing this time around, with their second goalie being 36 year old Brian Elliott. No really, look it up if you don't believe me. Starting Elliott 20 times could well prevent them from being a 1st place team in the regular season, but I am guessing that they literally don't care even the smallest amount.
7. PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
ES Offense: 26th
ES Defense: 6th
PP: 4th
PK: 29th
Goaltending: 15th
Overall Goal Differential: +7
Getting long in the tooth, but Pittsburgh still has a solid enough team with a potent PP. They feel to me like the least-changed team in the league, but Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev are losses, and are kind of on the thin line between elite teams and middling teams right now.
8. NEW YORK ISLANDERS
ES Offense: 4th
ES Defense: 17th
PP: 32nd
PK: 8th
Goaltending: 8th
Overall Goal Differential: +6
The Islanders are a team that always seems to be off my radar. Are they good now? When did that happen? Weirdly while they are projected to have a great ES offense, they have the worst PP projection in the league. It is at this point that I should clarify something When I say "worst PP" I really mean "fewest PP goals." I think PP% is actually one of the most overrated stats in the sport. The amount of PP goals you score is a function of both your power play efficiency and the rate at which you draw penalties, and I feel like the latter of these is always ignored. But a team that is elite at drawing penalties and has an OK PP will score more than a team that is very bad at drawing penalties and has a good PP, and at the end of the day it's the number of goals you score that wins you games, not the "efficiency." Who gives a f*** about your efficiency if you get 13 PP's in a game, you know?
OK, that was a bit of a rant. My point is that while NYI has a good, deep offense, they are somewhat lacking in top-end firepower, and they have the worst penalty-drawing rates in the league. Those two things combine for them to score the fewest # of PP goals regardless of how """efficient""" they might be at it.
The rest of the team is fine, whatever.
9. NASHVILLE PREDATORS
ES Offense: 21st
ES Defense: 11th
PP: 14th
PK: 17th
Goaltending: 6th
Overall Goal Differential: +4
How is Nashville just, like, always right here? We have reached the Nashville zone of teams. You know Nashville. They are quite good even though you've never heard of any of their players, but they are probably not elite. OK, that's not really true this time around. There are some *names* on this team. Matt Duchene! Ryan Johansen! These guys have been HFBoards favorites for years. Too bad they are not really all that good, and the teams strengths as usual are built around strong team defense and goaltending. Now, the numbers kinda hate David Rittich, so usage could be a factor here. Last year, Saros (who is good) played about 65% of minutes and I'm projecting about the same, but he might end up being more like 75% with Rittich as the #2 instead of Rinne. Please chime in if you have thoughts on this, as it would probably bump them up a bit.
10. DALLAS STARS
ES Offense: 7th
ES Defense: 14th
PP: 29th
PK: 6th
Goaltending: 18th
Overall Goal Differential: +2
The line between the top tier and the middle tier is somewhere around here I feel. Dallas is a fairly well-rounded team that plays well at ES, but like NYI doesn't draw a lot of penalties and doesn't have a ton of top-end firepower on their PP. Like Pittsburgh, they are getting pretty old and it remains to be seen how effective Tyler Seguin will be after missing almost all of last season and putting up a disappointing 50 points the season before that.
11. BOSTON BRUINS
ES Offense: 27th
ES Defense: 3rd
PP: 16th
PK: 27th
Goaltending: 10th
Overall Goal Differential: +1
Losing David Kreijci hurts, and as mentioned before I am assuming that Tuukka Rask will not be returning, and I am projecting Ullmark/Swayman at about 50/50 usage after consulting with some Bruins fans (don't worry, I showered after.) Swayman is a young goalie who was fantastic in 10 games last year (.945 Sv%,) but ... it's 10 games. Ullmark's numbers have been quite poor for years, so it will be interesting to see how that shakes out. It's the Bruins, so, I'm sure Swayman will start 70 games with a .938% and win the Vezina. My model just doesn't understand this. Hey, did you guys realize that Patrice Bergeron is now 36 years old? So at least there's that.
12. NEW YORK RANGERS
ES Offense: 23rd
ES Defense: 13th
PP: 6th
PK: 31st
Goaltending: 8th
Overall Goal Differential: 0
What a weird team. I actually don't have that much to say about them. They have a pretty elite PP unit and draw an OK number of penalties. The defense is really good but not necessarily deep. The offense is probably under-rated because the system has no knowledge of how good Kaapo Kakko and Alex Lafrieniere are supposed to be. A breakout from those two would obviously have a massive impact.
13. FLORIDA PANTHERS
ES Offense: 8th
ES Defense: 9th
PP: 11th
PK: 22nd
Goaltending: 25th
Overall Goal Differential: -2
Basically two questions here. One, how good is Spencer Knight? Two, how much will Spencer Knight play and how much playing time will they need to give to the $10,000,000 man? Knight is projected conservatively because the system knows nothing of NCAA performance, and I have their usage as 50/50 right now pending better information. If Knight is the real deal and steals the majority of the playing time from Bobrovsky, they will be higher than this.
14. CALGARY FLAMES
ES Offense: 11th
ES Defense: 7th
PP: 20th
PK: 21st
Goaltending: 22nd
Overall Goal Differential: -4
This is obviously pending any Matthew Tkachuk trade that comes out. As of this writing I am projecting Tkachuk with Calgary. Losing him would be tough, but he does take a lot of penalties so might help their PK out a bit. I don't know what to say about Calgary. They still have a good defensive team despite losing Gio, but Markstrom was disappointing last year and they need a bounce-back. A lot of their young guns didn't really pan out and now Gaudreau is 28 and has probably had his best seasons already. Still, they should be good enough to challenge for a playoff spot in the Pacific.
15. EDMONTON OILERS
ES Offense: 3rd
ES Defense: 30th
PP: 9th
PK: 12th
Goaltending: 26th
Overall Goal Differential: -4
Welp. I think we are solidly in "bubble team territory" now. This was my biggest surprise when working on this, as I thought Edmonton was going to come out lower. There is no denying their offensive power, but also the terrible defense. This has been Edmonton for years. If you're wondering about the Penalty Killing, it's the same thing I said above about the PP. Their PK unit is not necessarily going to be "good," but they actually don't really take a ton of penalties so it doesn't burn them too much. The 12th place ranking refers to the total times they get scored on on the PK, not the rate at which they kill the penalties they take.
16. NEW JERSEY DEVILS
ES Offense: 9th
ES Defense: 12th
PP: 19th
PK: 24th
Goaltending: 18
Overall Goal Differential: -4
Ah. Yep. They are a team! They have some very team-like qualities, in particular their team-ness, which is very teamy. I do have Tatar and Hamilton on here, and they project pretty well. Are Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier going to bust out? Is Mackenzie Blackwood actually good? I don't know! Moving on!
17. WINNIPEG JETS
ES Offense: 30th
ES Defense: 28th
PP: 17th
PK: 15th
Goaltending: 2nd
Overall Goal Differential: -6
Wait are those rankings real? *double-checks.* Yes? Huh. This is the most surprising entry for me so far, as Winnipeg comes out as a very poor ES team with middling special teams and elite goaltending. It's basically just Hellebuyck that is preventing them from being a bad team according to these numbers. I am not sure I agree with this so I will be very interested to see how this one plays out.
18. MINNESOTA WILD
ES Offense: 18th
ES Defense: 2nd
PP: 25th
PK: 13th
Goaltending: 30th
Overall Goal Differential: -8
Hey hey, it's the Wild. The offense is bad, the defense is good, the PP bad, the PK good, the goaltending ... bad? Surprisingly the numbers are not actually so good for Kahkonen, which is maybe why Seattle didn't take him. Cam Talbot is Cam Talbot. Mats Zuccarello is still a lizard.
19. MONTREAL CANADIENS
ES Offense: 15th
ES Defense: 4th
PP: 30th
PK: 19th
Goaltending: 22nd
Overall Goal Differential: -8
This isn't a surprise is it? I was more bullish than most on them last year, so after a Stanley Cup Finals appearance I now have to be the bear. I mean, I don't know, they're okay. Shea Weber is gone. Carey Price is ???? They do have Cole Caufield who is underrated by the system most likely, but I think this is a middling team that most expect to be a middling team.
20. SAN JOSE SHARKS
ES Offense: 16th
ES Defense: 18th
PP: 7th
PK: 32nd
Goaltending: 10th
Overall Goal Differential: -9
This one, on the other hand, might seem like a surprise as I've seen a lot of people put them at the very bottom. But why? They are pretty decent at ES and as old as Karlsson and Burns are, they still provide a formidable threat on the PP. Unfortunately they take a lot of penalties and their PKing is not the same as it used to be. And yes, I am assuming Evander Kane is on the team and not suspended for whatever.
Most importantly, they have been absolutely sunk in recent years by completely terrible goaltending and while Reimer-Hill is not the sexiest of tandems, it should be an improvement.
21. ST. LOUIS BLUES
ES Offense: 20th
ES Defense: 19th
PP: 22nd
PK: 20th
Goaltending: 13th
Overall Goal Differential: -10
Another team that I don't have much to say about. They are just kinda bad all around? I am assuming Terasenko plays although I'm not even completely sure what the situation is with him. Brandon Saad seems like an OK addition but the forwards kinda fall off fairly quickly, and the same is true of the defenders. I don't know what to think of Binnington, really, but for what it's worth the model still likes him.
22. VANCOUVER CANUCKS
ES Offense: 28th
ES Defense: 26th
PP: 5th
PK: 26th
Goaltending: 10th
Overall Goal Differential: -12
Finally. Good grief. I was really starting to sweat if they didn't pop up soon. This team looks like the team from two seasons ago, where ES play was very poor but the PP and the goaltending kept them afloat. People think this offense is so good but I think fail to realize just how much of the scoring comes from the PP; I was tracking it and at one point something like 40% of their goals came on their PP, leading the league by a lot. The Canucks are very good at drawing penalties, and have added another very good forward in Garland who also draws penalties at a high rate. Their PP should be very good, but at ES they have not been great at generating offense for years now, and it is because despite the firepower, it is hard to score when the puck is in your zone.
Unlike two seasons ago, the Canucks do not have Tanev/Edler, but instead have Myers/OEL, which looks like a total train-wreck. Hughes struggled defensively last year (I have a generous bounce-back projected) but no matter what some people say, Poolman and Hamonic are not Chris Tanev. Dickinson has some very good numbers and should be an improvement on Jay Beagle, but this still looks, on paper, like a team that will be spending a lot of time in their own end and relying on the PP to score goals, as well as on Demko/Halak to bail them out of trouble. Another concern is injuries, as Petey has to be seen as something of a risk at this point, and any team that spends so much time blocking shots and defending is bound to pile up the injuries, something that I thought the Canucks had learned by now.
There's no doubt that the top-six of Petey-Hog-Boeser-Horvat-Miller-Garland is very solid, but if you can't get the puck out of your own zone it doesn't much matter.
23. WASHINGTON CAPITALS
ES Offense: 14th
ES Defense: 24th
PP: 18th
PK: 12th
Goaltending: 24th
Overall Goal Differential: -13
Hey, you thought my Canucks projection was bad. What the hell is this? The team lost young goalie Vitek Vanecek to Seattle and then immediately traded to get him back, so I'm not entirely sure what the plan is in net, but between him and Samsonov the goaltending is a little suspect, with potential to be great as both players are young without much data to go from. The goalies are the only young part of this team. Is it ... a big secret that Alex Ovechkin is just kinda bad at this point? And they don't have a single defender under contract who is under 30. In fact, they barely have any forwards that are under 30, with Tom Wilson being the baby of the group. This might be the year where it crashes down on them and people declare the "window" over, if it wasn't already.
24. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
ES Offense: 17th
ES Defense: 32nd
PP: 27th
PK: 9th
Goaltending: 6th
Overall Goal Differential: -14
So like, are they going for it this year? Is that the plan? Cause like, Marc-Andre Fleury can work some magic, but this team still looks like it kinda sucks? For the record, this projection is without Jonathan Toews, as the team still hasn't given a timeline on his return. I'm not sure that's a big difference maker at this point. This looks like a team that will give up a lot of shots and chances, so best of luck to Mr. Fleury in his future endeavours.
25. OTTAWA SENATORS
ES Offense: 13th
ES Defense: 20th
PP: 13th
PK: 14th
Goaltending: 28th
Overall Goal Differential: -15
You know, this team might not be so bad if they would stop believing in Matt Murray. Based on what I've read, the plan is still to go forward with him as #1. Surprisingly, the roster comes out as pretty middling until their goaltending just tanks it. Also, Michael Del Zotto, huh? Good luck with that.
26. LOS ANGELES KINGS
ES Offense: 13th
ES Defense: 20th
PP: 13th
PK: 14th
Goaltending: 15th
Overall Goal Differential: -16
It wouldn't totally surprise me to see LA do better than this. Subjectively, I kinda like their team more than the system does. But ... also I see its point, this team still looks kinda old and bad. Jonathan Quick probably won't get that much playing time but he is so terrible that even getting the usage he did last year will do damage. Only two more years left on that contract!
27. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
ES Offense: 10th
ES Defense: 16th
PP: 21st
PK: 10th
Goaltending: 32nd
Overall Goal Differential: -19
Another team that looks like it is kinda middling, except ... good f***ing God that goaltending. Carter Hart was an absolute disaster last year, so your solution is Martin Jones? One would certainly hope that Hart can rebound and get back to the potential he had a couple years ago, but if he continues to struggle this could get ugly. Again. Like ... he put up an 877 on a team where even Brian Elliott put up an 889, you know? Eight Seven Seven. I ... don't have anything more to say.
28. COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
ES Offense: 31st
ES Defense: 22nd
PP: 26th
PK: 2nd
Goaltending: 27th
Overall Goal Differential: -20
At some point we have crossed into the bad team territory. People think Seattle has a bad offense, what do they think of Columbus? Hey, maybe Patrik Laine will show up this year. That would be cool.
29. DETROIT RED WINGS
ES Offense: 25th
ES Defense: 31st
PP: 31st
PK: 16th
Goaltending: 4th
Overall Goal Differential: -25
One of my favorite stats last seasons was that for an exceedingly long time, their leading scorer (in terms of points) had 0 goals. Hronek ended up with 2 goals by the end of the season, but, still, I have never seen that before. Nedeljkovic was a nice addition and Greiss has always had good numbers, but those guys aren't going to score any goals. Probably? Pius Suter was a decent under-the-radar addition too, he might score a few goals.
30. ANAHEIM DUCKS
ES Offense: 29th
ES Defense: 29th
PP: 28th
PK: 23rd
Goaltending: 13th
Overall Goal Differential: -26
And now the teams that are bad at everything. I feel for John Gibson. He was a very good goalie for a few years and I don't think anyone noticed because it was basically completely wasted. I don't know if I want to be paying him 6.4M for the next six seasons, all things considered, but maybe he becomes a trade target for a good team at some point. Boy, this is a bad team. They also only seem to have five defenders under contract? So I guess their offseason isn't done.
31. ARIZONA COYOTES
:coyotes2
ES Offense: 24th
ES Defense: 25th
PP: 24th
PK: 1st
Goaltending: 31st
Overall Goal Differential: -27
I have overrated this stupid team like 30 years in a row and I'm tired of it, so I'm happy to see where they came out this time. Every time I try some exercise like this I end up with Arizona winning the division and then they go on a team retreat to the woods where they encounter a witch that curses every player to literally never be able to score any goals until the moment he leaves Arizona. Now I have them as being awful across the board so I'm sure Phil Kessel will somehow be a 40 goal scorer again and they'll win the division with Jay Beagle and Loui Eriksson as co-MVPs. By the way, I AM assuming Beagle and Eriksson play, as I haven't heard otherwise to this point. How hilarious is it that I actually have them as the top PK team in the league? I'm not even going to look into that. Whatever, nothing I say about this team is ever true.
32. BUFFALO SABRES
ES Offense: 32nd
ES Defense: 15th
PP: 15th
PK: 28th
Goaltending: 28th
Overall Goal Differential: -38
... and yeah, still assuming a full season of Jack Eichel. So that's not good. Can you believe that Jeff Skinner contract? Six more years of $9M, and he scored 7 goals last year in 53 games. Woof. And we thought Eriksson was bad. Hell, that's worse than OEL. Kind of amazing how garbage this team is, all things considered. And with what's going on with Eichel, it's all just very sad. Also, apparently Craig Anderson still has a job. Who knew?
CONCLUSION
I am posting this for feedback, so please feel free to tell me where you disagree and ask me for a deeper dive into anything you think looks wonky. I am sure there are still some things I'm not considering or possibly some things I've implemented wrong. Please try to keep your feedback constructive and leave your "you just rank them there because you hate so-and-so" stuff at the door. I have put a *lot* of effort into this and did so without any knowledge of what the final output would be.
I fully anticipate bumping this thread after the season to evaluate no matter how bad it looks. We learn by evaluation of errors, no other way.
I started a thread about this last year but I ran into a myriad of problems. First, I didn't do a good job keeping rosters up to date, and then I got banned from the forums, and also I changed jobs a few times and moved back to Canada, and just sort of abandoned the project. So I'm going to try again!
My overall methodology is covered in the old thread so I won't go over it again, other than to say a few things:
1) I have identified and fixed a number of bugs in my code, including one that was causing all the numbers to be so low across the board.
2) I am keeping the rosters up to date, basically just going to CapFriendly every day and adding any new signings. Thus these rankings are still somewhat in flux and I might post like weekly updates or something if anyone cares or if there is some big transaction that moves the needle somewhere.
3) All RFA's are projected to be with their teams. So Pettersson/Hughes ARE included for the Canucks.
4) Various players are assumed out for the season until I hear otherwise: Tuukka Rask, Shea Weber, Oscar Klefbom, Jonathan Toews, Micheal Ferland, etc are not included in projections. If some new info pops up that indicates they will play this season, then I will update. Please feel free to post that for me in this thread.
5) Bear in mind I am projecting goal differential and ranking the teams based on goal differential. I have not, at this point, taken the schedule into account and run any actual simulations.
I think that's it. Goal differential is calculated by considering the rosters, projecting ice time of all the players, and constructing ES/PP/PK rates separately taking into account the penalty drawing/taking rates of the players involved (and their ice time.) If you want more details on the methodology see the linked thread from last year. Oh, and I am just looking at regulation time, and not empty netters or silly things like that.
I have done my best to estimate usage but in some cases, especially with the goaltending, usage isn't 100% clear so feel free to chime in on anything you know that I may not (like what in the f*** Philadelphia is doing in net.)
OK, one last thing. There is still 2 months before the season starts and if say some Jack Eichel player were to Jack Eichel be traded like Jack Eichel for example, Jack Eichel, then I can update these (although ...... well, you'll see where Buffalo is already.)
THE RANKINGS
1. VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
ES Offense: 1st
ES Defense: 23rd
PP: 3rd
PK: 5th
Goaltending: 5th
Overall Goal Differential: +40
I've seen some consternation that Vegas has had a bad off-season but the numbers love Robin Lehner, don't see goaltending being an issue and still love the team's offense. They should still be a force.
2. COLORADO AVALANCHE
ES Offense: 12th
ES Defense: 1st
PP: 1st
PK: 18th
Goaltending: T-20th
Overall Goal Differential: +38
Not a lot separating #1 from #2. The numbers prefer Vegas offense but Colorado defense. Francouz is probably underrated as he's a 31-year-old goalie with limited NHL data who didn't play last year, so that could be a wild card, not that they really need one.
3. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
ES Offense: 2nd
ES Defense: 21st
PP: 8th
PK: 4th
Goaltending: 1st
Overall Goal Differential: +38
Hey, what can I say. I don't like it either. Goaltending, 1st? The Leafs? Well, yeah. Mrazek and Campbell both project extremely well, and I am assuming 50/50 usage for now. Much with the rest of the roster, people tend to evaluate goalies based on star power of their starter, but if you look at the last 4 or 5 years, the team with the best goaltending has been a team with an effective tandem of goalies that basically split time (Bishop/Khudobin, Greiss/Lehner, etc.) This IMO works better (in the regular season) than having 1 elite guy and 1 scrub, but we'll get to Tampa Bay.
4. SEATTLE KRAKEN
ES Offense: 19th
ES Defense: 8th
PP: 12th
PK: 3rd
Goaltending: 3rd
Overall Goal Differential: +18
Uh oh. I'm gonna get heat for this one. Just to be perfectly clear, this is not based on the success of Vegas. The numbers know nothing about this. It is true that some players are likely overrated because they are selected from very good teams and it's unclear if they will be as effective on a new team, but I don't have a great way to control for this (if anyone has some opinions on how one can approach that problem, please post them. I can go into greater detail of why it's an issue.)
As it stands, Seattle looks like a very good, well-rounded team with middling offense but with great overall ES play and excellent goaltending. Say what you will about the Grubauer signing (I thought it was strange as well,) but there is no denying that Grubauer/Driedger should be a terrific tandem next year and their overall defensive play should make up for their relatively weak offense. But we'll see! Part of the reason I am posting so much detail is so I can analyze easily what specifically was off once the season concludes.
One last thing. Note that the overall goal differential took a big drop between 3 and 4 here. There is a bit of a gap in what looks like the elite-3 and the next tier.
5. CAROLINA HURRICANES
ES Offense: 5th
ES Defense: 10th
PP: 2nd
PK: 30th
Goaltending: T-20th
Overall Goal Differential: +15
Hmmm. So they let 25 year old Nedeljkovic go and are rolling with two 32 year olds with a heavy injury history. This could really go a lot of ways. Either they run a solid 50/50 tandem and both Andersen and Raanta excel under a lighter workload, or it could completely implode on them. The numbers are not too impressed, but the rest of the team is undeniably very good and sees them as a top team even if the goaltending ends up not working out, which means if the goalies actually do play well then they could be elite-tier.
6. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
ES Offense: 6th
ES Defense: 5th
PP: 23rd
PK: 7th
Goaltending: 17th
Overall Goal Differential: +13
Say what? back-to-back cups and they are in 6th? Well, yes, you see, this is regular season rankings. Let me explain. In the playoffs, you can just play Andrei Vasilivskiy in every game, and that works fine. It works quite fine, just ask them! But in the regular season, you need two goalies. Tampa more or less decided that they don't give a f*** about this and are willing to punt 15 games every year when they don't use Vasilivskiy, because they can still just get to the playoffs and then roll him every game. Last year they started Curtis McIlhinney 12 times and went 4-6-2 in those games. They appear set up to do a similar thing this time around, with their second goalie being 36 year old Brian Elliott. No really, look it up if you don't believe me. Starting Elliott 20 times could well prevent them from being a 1st place team in the regular season, but I am guessing that they literally don't care even the smallest amount.
7. PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
ES Offense: 26th
ES Defense: 6th
PP: 4th
PK: 29th
Goaltending: 15th
Overall Goal Differential: +7
Getting long in the tooth, but Pittsburgh still has a solid enough team with a potent PP. They feel to me like the least-changed team in the league, but Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev are losses, and are kind of on the thin line between elite teams and middling teams right now.
8. NEW YORK ISLANDERS
ES Offense: 4th
ES Defense: 17th
PP: 32nd
PK: 8th
Goaltending: 8th
Overall Goal Differential: +6
The Islanders are a team that always seems to be off my radar. Are they good now? When did that happen? Weirdly while they are projected to have a great ES offense, they have the worst PP projection in the league. It is at this point that I should clarify something When I say "worst PP" I really mean "fewest PP goals." I think PP% is actually one of the most overrated stats in the sport. The amount of PP goals you score is a function of both your power play efficiency and the rate at which you draw penalties, and I feel like the latter of these is always ignored. But a team that is elite at drawing penalties and has an OK PP will score more than a team that is very bad at drawing penalties and has a good PP, and at the end of the day it's the number of goals you score that wins you games, not the "efficiency." Who gives a f*** about your efficiency if you get 13 PP's in a game, you know?
OK, that was a bit of a rant. My point is that while NYI has a good, deep offense, they are somewhat lacking in top-end firepower, and they have the worst penalty-drawing rates in the league. Those two things combine for them to score the fewest # of PP goals regardless of how """efficient""" they might be at it.
The rest of the team is fine, whatever.
9. NASHVILLE PREDATORS
ES Offense: 21st
ES Defense: 11th
PP: 14th
PK: 17th
Goaltending: 6th
Overall Goal Differential: +4
How is Nashville just, like, always right here? We have reached the Nashville zone of teams. You know Nashville. They are quite good even though you've never heard of any of their players, but they are probably not elite. OK, that's not really true this time around. There are some *names* on this team. Matt Duchene! Ryan Johansen! These guys have been HFBoards favorites for years. Too bad they are not really all that good, and the teams strengths as usual are built around strong team defense and goaltending. Now, the numbers kinda hate David Rittich, so usage could be a factor here. Last year, Saros (who is good) played about 65% of minutes and I'm projecting about the same, but he might end up being more like 75% with Rittich as the #2 instead of Rinne. Please chime in if you have thoughts on this, as it would probably bump them up a bit.
10. DALLAS STARS
ES Offense: 7th
ES Defense: 14th
PP: 29th
PK: 6th
Goaltending: 18th
Overall Goal Differential: +2
The line between the top tier and the middle tier is somewhere around here I feel. Dallas is a fairly well-rounded team that plays well at ES, but like NYI doesn't draw a lot of penalties and doesn't have a ton of top-end firepower on their PP. Like Pittsburgh, they are getting pretty old and it remains to be seen how effective Tyler Seguin will be after missing almost all of last season and putting up a disappointing 50 points the season before that.
11. BOSTON BRUINS
ES Offense: 27th
ES Defense: 3rd
PP: 16th
PK: 27th
Goaltending: 10th
Overall Goal Differential: +1
Losing David Kreijci hurts, and as mentioned before I am assuming that Tuukka Rask will not be returning, and I am projecting Ullmark/Swayman at about 50/50 usage after consulting with some Bruins fans (don't worry, I showered after.) Swayman is a young goalie who was fantastic in 10 games last year (.945 Sv%,) but ... it's 10 games. Ullmark's numbers have been quite poor for years, so it will be interesting to see how that shakes out. It's the Bruins, so, I'm sure Swayman will start 70 games with a .938% and win the Vezina. My model just doesn't understand this. Hey, did you guys realize that Patrice Bergeron is now 36 years old? So at least there's that.
12. NEW YORK RANGERS
ES Offense: 23rd
ES Defense: 13th
PP: 6th
PK: 31st
Goaltending: 8th
Overall Goal Differential: 0
What a weird team. I actually don't have that much to say about them. They have a pretty elite PP unit and draw an OK number of penalties. The defense is really good but not necessarily deep. The offense is probably under-rated because the system has no knowledge of how good Kaapo Kakko and Alex Lafrieniere are supposed to be. A breakout from those two would obviously have a massive impact.
13. FLORIDA PANTHERS
ES Offense: 8th
ES Defense: 9th
PP: 11th
PK: 22nd
Goaltending: 25th
Overall Goal Differential: -2
Basically two questions here. One, how good is Spencer Knight? Two, how much will Spencer Knight play and how much playing time will they need to give to the $10,000,000 man? Knight is projected conservatively because the system knows nothing of NCAA performance, and I have their usage as 50/50 right now pending better information. If Knight is the real deal and steals the majority of the playing time from Bobrovsky, they will be higher than this.
14. CALGARY FLAMES
ES Offense: 11th
ES Defense: 7th
PP: 20th
PK: 21st
Goaltending: 22nd
Overall Goal Differential: -4
This is obviously pending any Matthew Tkachuk trade that comes out. As of this writing I am projecting Tkachuk with Calgary. Losing him would be tough, but he does take a lot of penalties so might help their PK out a bit. I don't know what to say about Calgary. They still have a good defensive team despite losing Gio, but Markstrom was disappointing last year and they need a bounce-back. A lot of their young guns didn't really pan out and now Gaudreau is 28 and has probably had his best seasons already. Still, they should be good enough to challenge for a playoff spot in the Pacific.
15. EDMONTON OILERS
ES Offense: 3rd
ES Defense: 30th
PP: 9th
PK: 12th
Goaltending: 26th
Overall Goal Differential: -4
Welp. I think we are solidly in "bubble team territory" now. This was my biggest surprise when working on this, as I thought Edmonton was going to come out lower. There is no denying their offensive power, but also the terrible defense. This has been Edmonton for years. If you're wondering about the Penalty Killing, it's the same thing I said above about the PP. Their PK unit is not necessarily going to be "good," but they actually don't really take a ton of penalties so it doesn't burn them too much. The 12th place ranking refers to the total times they get scored on on the PK, not the rate at which they kill the penalties they take.
16. NEW JERSEY DEVILS
ES Offense: 9th
ES Defense: 12th
PP: 19th
PK: 24th
Goaltending: 18
Overall Goal Differential: -4
Ah. Yep. They are a team! They have some very team-like qualities, in particular their team-ness, which is very teamy. I do have Tatar and Hamilton on here, and they project pretty well. Are Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier going to bust out? Is Mackenzie Blackwood actually good? I don't know! Moving on!
17. WINNIPEG JETS
ES Offense: 30th
ES Defense: 28th
PP: 17th
PK: 15th
Goaltending: 2nd
Overall Goal Differential: -6
Wait are those rankings real? *double-checks.* Yes? Huh. This is the most surprising entry for me so far, as Winnipeg comes out as a very poor ES team with middling special teams and elite goaltending. It's basically just Hellebuyck that is preventing them from being a bad team according to these numbers. I am not sure I agree with this so I will be very interested to see how this one plays out.
18. MINNESOTA WILD
ES Offense: 18th
ES Defense: 2nd
PP: 25th
PK: 13th
Goaltending: 30th
Overall Goal Differential: -8
Hey hey, it's the Wild. The offense is bad, the defense is good, the PP bad, the PK good, the goaltending ... bad? Surprisingly the numbers are not actually so good for Kahkonen, which is maybe why Seattle didn't take him. Cam Talbot is Cam Talbot. Mats Zuccarello is still a lizard.
19. MONTREAL CANADIENS
ES Offense: 15th
ES Defense: 4th
PP: 30th
PK: 19th
Goaltending: 22nd
Overall Goal Differential: -8
This isn't a surprise is it? I was more bullish than most on them last year, so after a Stanley Cup Finals appearance I now have to be the bear. I mean, I don't know, they're okay. Shea Weber is gone. Carey Price is ???? They do have Cole Caufield who is underrated by the system most likely, but I think this is a middling team that most expect to be a middling team.
20. SAN JOSE SHARKS
ES Offense: 16th
ES Defense: 18th
PP: 7th
PK: 32nd
Goaltending: 10th
Overall Goal Differential: -9
This one, on the other hand, might seem like a surprise as I've seen a lot of people put them at the very bottom. But why? They are pretty decent at ES and as old as Karlsson and Burns are, they still provide a formidable threat on the PP. Unfortunately they take a lot of penalties and their PKing is not the same as it used to be. And yes, I am assuming Evander Kane is on the team and not suspended for whatever.
Most importantly, they have been absolutely sunk in recent years by completely terrible goaltending and while Reimer-Hill is not the sexiest of tandems, it should be an improvement.
21. ST. LOUIS BLUES
ES Offense: 20th
ES Defense: 19th
PP: 22nd
PK: 20th
Goaltending: 13th
Overall Goal Differential: -10
Another team that I don't have much to say about. They are just kinda bad all around? I am assuming Terasenko plays although I'm not even completely sure what the situation is with him. Brandon Saad seems like an OK addition but the forwards kinda fall off fairly quickly, and the same is true of the defenders. I don't know what to think of Binnington, really, but for what it's worth the model still likes him.
22. VANCOUVER CANUCKS
ES Offense: 28th
ES Defense: 26th
PP: 5th
PK: 26th
Goaltending: 10th
Overall Goal Differential: -12
Finally. Good grief. I was really starting to sweat if they didn't pop up soon. This team looks like the team from two seasons ago, where ES play was very poor but the PP and the goaltending kept them afloat. People think this offense is so good but I think fail to realize just how much of the scoring comes from the PP; I was tracking it and at one point something like 40% of their goals came on their PP, leading the league by a lot. The Canucks are very good at drawing penalties, and have added another very good forward in Garland who also draws penalties at a high rate. Their PP should be very good, but at ES they have not been great at generating offense for years now, and it is because despite the firepower, it is hard to score when the puck is in your zone.
Unlike two seasons ago, the Canucks do not have Tanev/Edler, but instead have Myers/OEL, which looks like a total train-wreck. Hughes struggled defensively last year (I have a generous bounce-back projected) but no matter what some people say, Poolman and Hamonic are not Chris Tanev. Dickinson has some very good numbers and should be an improvement on Jay Beagle, but this still looks, on paper, like a team that will be spending a lot of time in their own end and relying on the PP to score goals, as well as on Demko/Halak to bail them out of trouble. Another concern is injuries, as Petey has to be seen as something of a risk at this point, and any team that spends so much time blocking shots and defending is bound to pile up the injuries, something that I thought the Canucks had learned by now.
There's no doubt that the top-six of Petey-Hog-Boeser-Horvat-Miller-Garland is very solid, but if you can't get the puck out of your own zone it doesn't much matter.
23. WASHINGTON CAPITALS
ES Offense: 14th
ES Defense: 24th
PP: 18th
PK: 12th
Goaltending: 24th
Overall Goal Differential: -13
Hey, you thought my Canucks projection was bad. What the hell is this? The team lost young goalie Vitek Vanecek to Seattle and then immediately traded to get him back, so I'm not entirely sure what the plan is in net, but between him and Samsonov the goaltending is a little suspect, with potential to be great as both players are young without much data to go from. The goalies are the only young part of this team. Is it ... a big secret that Alex Ovechkin is just kinda bad at this point? And they don't have a single defender under contract who is under 30. In fact, they barely have any forwards that are under 30, with Tom Wilson being the baby of the group. This might be the year where it crashes down on them and people declare the "window" over, if it wasn't already.
24. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
ES Offense: 17th
ES Defense: 32nd
PP: 27th
PK: 9th
Goaltending: 6th
Overall Goal Differential: -14
So like, are they going for it this year? Is that the plan? Cause like, Marc-Andre Fleury can work some magic, but this team still looks like it kinda sucks? For the record, this projection is without Jonathan Toews, as the team still hasn't given a timeline on his return. I'm not sure that's a big difference maker at this point. This looks like a team that will give up a lot of shots and chances, so best of luck to Mr. Fleury in his future endeavours.
25. OTTAWA SENATORS
ES Offense: 13th
ES Defense: 20th
PP: 13th
PK: 14th
Goaltending: 28th
Overall Goal Differential: -15
You know, this team might not be so bad if they would stop believing in Matt Murray. Based on what I've read, the plan is still to go forward with him as #1. Surprisingly, the roster comes out as pretty middling until their goaltending just tanks it. Also, Michael Del Zotto, huh? Good luck with that.
26. LOS ANGELES KINGS
ES Offense: 13th
ES Defense: 20th
PP: 13th
PK: 14th
Goaltending: 15th
Overall Goal Differential: -16
It wouldn't totally surprise me to see LA do better than this. Subjectively, I kinda like their team more than the system does. But ... also I see its point, this team still looks kinda old and bad. Jonathan Quick probably won't get that much playing time but he is so terrible that even getting the usage he did last year will do damage. Only two more years left on that contract!
27. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
ES Offense: 10th
ES Defense: 16th
PP: 21st
PK: 10th
Goaltending: 32nd
Overall Goal Differential: -19
Another team that looks like it is kinda middling, except ... good f***ing God that goaltending. Carter Hart was an absolute disaster last year, so your solution is Martin Jones? One would certainly hope that Hart can rebound and get back to the potential he had a couple years ago, but if he continues to struggle this could get ugly. Again. Like ... he put up an 877 on a team where even Brian Elliott put up an 889, you know? Eight Seven Seven. I ... don't have anything more to say.
28. COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
ES Offense: 31st
ES Defense: 22nd
PP: 26th
PK: 2nd
Goaltending: 27th
Overall Goal Differential: -20
At some point we have crossed into the bad team territory. People think Seattle has a bad offense, what do they think of Columbus? Hey, maybe Patrik Laine will show up this year. That would be cool.
29. DETROIT RED WINGS
ES Offense: 25th
ES Defense: 31st
PP: 31st
PK: 16th
Goaltending: 4th
Overall Goal Differential: -25
One of my favorite stats last seasons was that for an exceedingly long time, their leading scorer (in terms of points) had 0 goals. Hronek ended up with 2 goals by the end of the season, but, still, I have never seen that before. Nedeljkovic was a nice addition and Greiss has always had good numbers, but those guys aren't going to score any goals. Probably? Pius Suter was a decent under-the-radar addition too, he might score a few goals.
30. ANAHEIM DUCKS
ES Offense: 29th
ES Defense: 29th
PP: 28th
PK: 23rd
Goaltending: 13th
Overall Goal Differential: -26
And now the teams that are bad at everything. I feel for John Gibson. He was a very good goalie for a few years and I don't think anyone noticed because it was basically completely wasted. I don't know if I want to be paying him 6.4M for the next six seasons, all things considered, but maybe he becomes a trade target for a good team at some point. Boy, this is a bad team. They also only seem to have five defenders under contract? So I guess their offseason isn't done.
31. ARIZONA COYOTES
:coyotes2
ES Offense: 24th
ES Defense: 25th
PP: 24th
PK: 1st
Goaltending: 31st
Overall Goal Differential: -27
I have overrated this stupid team like 30 years in a row and I'm tired of it, so I'm happy to see where they came out this time. Every time I try some exercise like this I end up with Arizona winning the division and then they go on a team retreat to the woods where they encounter a witch that curses every player to literally never be able to score any goals until the moment he leaves Arizona. Now I have them as being awful across the board so I'm sure Phil Kessel will somehow be a 40 goal scorer again and they'll win the division with Jay Beagle and Loui Eriksson as co-MVPs. By the way, I AM assuming Beagle and Eriksson play, as I haven't heard otherwise to this point. How hilarious is it that I actually have them as the top PK team in the league? I'm not even going to look into that. Whatever, nothing I say about this team is ever true.
32. BUFFALO SABRES
ES Offense: 32nd
ES Defense: 15th
PP: 15th
PK: 28th
Goaltending: 28th
Overall Goal Differential: -38
... and yeah, still assuming a full season of Jack Eichel. So that's not good. Can you believe that Jeff Skinner contract? Six more years of $9M, and he scored 7 goals last year in 53 games. Woof. And we thought Eriksson was bad. Hell, that's worse than OEL. Kind of amazing how garbage this team is, all things considered. And with what's going on with Eichel, it's all just very sad. Also, apparently Craig Anderson still has a job. Who knew?
CONCLUSION
I am posting this for feedback, so please feel free to tell me where you disagree and ask me for a deeper dive into anything you think looks wonky. I am sure there are still some things I'm not considering or possibly some things I've implemented wrong. Please try to keep your feedback constructive and leave your "you just rank them there because you hate so-and-so" stuff at the door. I have put a *lot* of effort into this and did so without any knowledge of what the final output would be.
I fully anticipate bumping this thread after the season to evaluate no matter how bad it looks. We learn by evaluation of errors, no other way.
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