McMullet's Final Top-62 Rankings + Write-Ups for Each Player

[ConnorMcMullet]

Thing is Guhle and Schneider should kinda be back to back as there's not much separation between them. Size, skill and upside are all close. For me though both are top 15 talents vs everyone other than bobs list has them outside the 1st round usually. This list at least has Sanderson and Guhle close as they're basically identical players but some will have 30+ spots between them which says to me they either don't watch or don't have a clue how to scout players.

I just think Schneider has one of the highest floors in the draft class and could be ready to step in on an NHL 3rd pairing as soon as next year. In my viewings he's come across as a much smarter player than Guhle. Yes, he's a late birthday, but there's only a few months separating them. Their upsides may be similar, but I think there's more risk attached to Guhle.

I do agree that people putting 30+ spots between Sanderson and Guhle/Schneider are missing something.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Nice Job

Its a good list. I don't agree with a few things. I'll comment on the first only.

I don't think Quinn is a top 10 pick. 11-15 ok .. not top 10.
Same for Gunler
I'd almost switch Jarvis and Zary but at least one is too low and the other too high imo
Askarov is criminally low for a prospect ranking. IMO he belongs up there in the top 10. He may not go there but what he has achieved puts him there in relation to other prospects.


Overall pretty good.

Yeah, I could be swayed to change my opinion on Askarov. I don't dislike him, I just don't know how properly to judge a goalie's talent and don't like to take goalies high in the draft unless I am absolutely convinced they will pan out. So if someone could convince me on Askarov I would move him up on my list.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Not almost for me, I'd completely flip them. What is Zary expected to improve? I can see Jarvis adding muscle and maybe getting even faster.

Why can't Zary also add muscle and get faster?

Zary plays a more well-rounded game and I think his offense is more translatable. Jarvis puts up a lot of his offense on the rush.

I do really like Jarvis though.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Curious how you think Sanderson “lacks a physical element” and Bordeleau needs to work on his defense.


Sanderson is a punishing hitter, finishes checks, clears the crease, intense compete level along boards, opponents bounce off him. Rarely gets outmuscled. Rarely. He’s not on Kleven’s meanness level but several Canadian-based outlets are pushing the narrative that Sanderson needs to get stronger/physical. If anyone needs to do that it’s Drysdale. Sanderson proved his physicality big time in the NCAA portion.

Bordeleau and Yoder are the PK centers, Bordeleau is used on the 5-on-3 PK as well and takes the significant majority of the big late/close draws. Backchecks, covers slot.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Yeah, I could be swayed to change my opinion on Askarov. I don't dislike him, I just don't know how properly to judge a goalie's talent and don't like to take goalies high in the draft unless I am absolutely convinced they will pan out. So if someone could convince me on Askarov I would move him up on my list.

Askarov "maybe" the best goalie prospect coming out of Russia for a very long time.
2018-19 Played 31 games in the MHL at 16 .921 Sv%
2019-20 He's the only 17 y/o playing in the VHL (> 1 game) 18 gp ,, kinda like the AHL to the NHL only to the KHL. .921 Sv%
Represented Russia at the U18 Worlds as a 16 y/o winning a Silver .916 Sv% Best Goalie award
Represented Russia at the U20 Worlds as a 17 y/0 winning a Silver .877 Sv%
Represented Russia at the 2019 Hlinka Gretxky as a 17 y/o (just) winning Gold .960 Sv% .. stole the tournament imo MVP
Represented Russia at the 2018-19 WJAC as a 16 y/o winning Silver .954 Sv %
Represented Russia at the 2018 U17 Worlds as a 16 y/o winning gold .948 Sv%

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Curious how you think Sanderson “lacks a physical element” and Bordeleau needs to work on his defense.

Sanderson lacking a physical element was in comparison to Schneider. I'm sure you agree Schneider is the more physical player than Sanderson. Not saying Sanderson isn't physical, sorry if I worded that poorly.

Bordeleau plays pk, is good on the dot, and I like his compete level, but his defensive results were plain bad this year. His team allowed on average 41.35% more goals against when he was on the ice than when he wasn't.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Askarov "maybe" the best goalie prospect coming out of Russia for a very long time.
2018-19 Played 31 games in the MHL at 16 .921 Sv%
2019-20 He's the only 17 y/o playing in the VHL (> 1 game) 18 gp ,, kinda like the AHL to the NHL only to the KHL. .921 Sv%
Represented Russia at the U18 Worlds as a 16 y/o winning a Silver .916 Sv% Best Goalie award
Represented Russia at the U20 Worlds as a 17 y/0 winning a Silver .877 Sv%
Represented Russia at the 2019 Hlinka Gretxky as a 17 y/o (just) winning Gold .960 Sv% .. stole the tournament imo MVP
Represented Russia at the 2018-19 WJAC as a 16 y/o winning Silver .954 Sv %
Represented Russia at the 2018 U17 Worlds as a 16 y/o winning gold .948 Sv%

That's all impressive.

But to be convinced on him I need to be confident that his technique and playing style will translate to the NHL. There are goalies every year with great numbers (not saying Askarov isn't on another level) that don't pan out at all. If someone can show me what makes Askarov a great goalie in terms of his technique I could be swayed to put him higher.

 

[majormajor]

Why can't Zary also add muscle and get faster?

Zary plays a more well-rounded game and I think his offense is more translatable. Jarvis puts up a lot of his offense on the rush.

I do really like Jarvis though.

Zary just looks like a finished product. Maybe he can add about 10 lbs of muscle, but he's already big. And I tend to think he benefits a lot from playing on a great line. He doesn't create nearly as much as Jarvis.

 

[landy92mack29]

Zary just looks like a finished product. Maybe he can add about 10 lbs of muscle, but he's already big. And I tend to think he benefits a lot from playing on a great line. He doesn't create nearly as much as Jarvis.

Zary creates way more than Jarvis does. Has a better shot, vision, hands, defensively, physically and intangible elements. Only thing Jarvis has on him is being a slightly better skater. When watching the games Zary is dangerous every time he touches the ice where Jarvis is invisible for periods at a time then will have a few good shifts to get his points. Jarvis does have a intriguing upside but has a long way to go in improving every aspect of his game to become a nhler.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Zary just looks like a finished product. Maybe he can add about 10 lbs of muscle, but he's already big. And I tend to think he benefits a lot from playing on a great line. He doesn't create nearly as much as Jarvis.

Being physically developed doesn't mean you're done developing.

As @landy92mack29 said, Zary has much more of an impact on a shift-to-shift basis than Jarvis does. Jarvis is what I would describe as opportunistic. He pounces on loose pucks and carries the puck on the rush at every chance he has by being faster than his peers. That's going to have a harder time translating than Zary's possession-supporting game.

 

[majormajor]

Zary creates way more than Jarvis does. Has a better shot, vision, hands, defensively, physically and intangible elements. Only thing Jarvis has on him is being a slightly better skater. When watching the games Zary is dangerous every time he touches the ice where Jarvis is invisible for periods at a time then will have a few good shifts to get his points. Jarvis does have a intriguing upside but has a long way to go in improving every aspect of his game to become a nhler.

Zary is a complete package, but I didn't see him having better hands or vision than Jarvis. I've also seen a lot of invisible shifts from Jarvis where he just has a few great shifts and piles up points, but those are really him doing it and making big contributions. It's not like he's playing on the best line in the WHL. He definitely has further to go than Zary to be NHL ready, but I don't see Zary becoming a top liner in the NHL or even a Horvat. That Horvat comp depends on Zary getting a lot more powerful and I can't know for sure, I'm just wondering if he's already built up close to his maximum strength.

 

[majormajor]

Being physically developed doesn't mean you're done developing.

As @landy92mack29 said, Zary has much more of an impact on a shift-to-shift basis than Jarvis does. Jarvis is what I would describe as opportunistic. He pounces on loose pucks and carries the puck on the rush at every chance he has by being faster than his peers. That's going to have a harder time translating than Zary's possession-supporting game.

That's maybe where we end up on different pages here. I see Jarvis as still being faster than most NHLers, and getting faster. Zary could be totally bland at the NHL level, I'm not sure if he can get any kind of edge. Being fully built and physically stronger than your CHL peers but not stronger than your NHL peers is something to be cautious about.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

That's maybe where we end up on different pages here. I see Jarvis as still being faster than most NHLers, and getting faster. Zary could be totally bland at the NHL level, I'm not sure if he can get any kind of edge. Being fully built and physically stronger than your CHL peers but not stronger than your NHL peers is something to be cautious about.

The thing is Zary doesn't dominate because of his strength. Not at all. He's one of the smartest players in the draft along with being very skilled which is why he's producing so well.

But yeah, agree to disagree.

 

[landy92mack29]

Yeah Zary dominates on a possession style more because of his IQ+very high compete level than pure strength. Zary also has some of the best hands in the draft which makes players look silly regularly. He still has a frame that can put on 20ish pounds of muscle where Jarvis is quite slight so for him to stay agile he really can't put on much more weight

 

[Whileee]

Zary has a laboured skating style - very hunched over. I am in the camp of those that wonder if he has the same room for further development as some other forwards in that tier.

Also, according to Mitch Brown's tracking, Zary has very mediocre results in transition (based on 10 games). That's an important area for a C in the NHL now.

 

[Raskolnikow]

First of all: Great work, Connor! Often enough you see people posting draft lists without any explanations. I don't even read those. For me it is really refreshing to see when someone makes the effort to actually explain his rankings and to deliver his own scouting reports. The tiers you built are also helpful.

Some thoughts:

- I like that you put Mercer eight spots higher than in your last list. He is one of my favourite prospects. I see his future as a right wing in the top6.
- Like the aggressive ranking of Rodion Amirov. He has it all. Also like that you think high of Khusnutdinov, Gushchin and Pashin.
- I have Stützle at 5 right now. He has more flash than guys like Raymond and Rossi but I see their games translating better to the NHL.
- Zary, Mysak and Schneider I have a bit lower. Zary and Schneider have a high floor but not a great ceiling IMO. And I tend to think the same about Mysak. He seems to be a polarzing prospect in that regard. Some see a lot of untapped potential in him, I don't. I think he lacks offensive creativity, but he is a sure bet to bet a middle six winger who hustles, skates well and has a good shot.
- Two prospects I am higher on: Tristen Robins and Kasper Simontaival. Robins was killing it in the second half of the season with 54 points in 33 games. He is super smart, gritty and dedicated to getting better. Simontaival is risky but he has unreal skill. He already improved his two way game and could be a major steal at 54. I would pick him way higher as I have a soft spot for those boom-or-bust-types.
- Mitchell Miller should at least be a honourable mention.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

First of all: Great work, Connor! Often enough you see people posting draft lists without any explanations. I don't even read those. For me it is really refreshing to see when someone makes the effort to actually explain his rankings and to deliver his own scouting reports. The tiers you built are also helpful.

Some thoughts:

- I like that you put Mercer eight spots higher than in your last list. He is one of my favourite prospects. I see his future as a right wing in the top6.
- Like the aggressive ranking of Rodion Amirov. He has it all. Also like that you think high of Khusnutdinov, Gushchin and Pashin.
- I have Stützle at 5 right now. He has more flash than guys like Raymond and Rossi but I see their games translating better to the NHL.
- Zary, Mysak and Schneider I have a bit lower. Zary and Schneider have a high floor but not a great ceiling IMO. And I tend to think the same about Mysak. He seems to be a polarzing prospect in that regard. Some see a lot of untapped potential in him, I don't. I think he lacks offensive creativity, but he is a sure bet to bet a middle six winger who hustles, skates well and has a good shot.
- Two prospects I am higher on: Tristen Robins and Kasper Simontaival. Robins was killing it in the second half of the season with 54 points in 33 games. He is super smart, gritty and dedicated to getting better. Simontaival is risky but he has unreal skill. He already improved his two way game and could be a major steal at 54. I would pick him way higher as I have a soft spot for those boom-or-bust-types.
- Mitchell Miller should at least be a honourable mention.

Thanks!

Yeah, I really like the Russian forwards this draft. Not so much the Russian defensemen.

Mysak is an interesting one. I don't see all that much offensive potential either, probably not 1st-line offensive forward upside. But he's one of the best PKers I've ever seen for a guy his age and has great tools. If you land a very good 2-way 2nd line forward with speed and PKing ability in the teens/20s, you should be very happy.

My point remains pretty much the same for Zary and Schneider. I'm not sure I see 1C or 1D potential, but if you land a very good 2C or 2nd pairing D in the teens you made a great pick. I think Zary and Schneider are two of the safest bets in the draft to get there.

I really like Robins and I think at 51 I have him pretty high. Most rankings have in the 70s or 80s.

I love Simontival's skill and I had him higher in my last list. If he hits his potential he could make me look stupid, but I don't think it's very likely he does. But yeah, I wouldn't mind taking a swing on a boom-bust guy like him earlier than I have him ranked just because of the upside.

I am quite high on Mitchell Miller. I forgot to list him as an honourable mention. Johannesson, Knazko, and Miller are my favourite defensemen that went unranked in my top-62.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That's all impressive.

But to be convinced on him I need to be confident that his technique and playing style will translate to the NHL. There are goalies every year with great numbers (not saying Askarov isn't on another level) that don't pan out at all. If someone can show me what makes Askarov a great goalie in terms of his technique I could be swayed to put him higher.

I am not the guy to give you technicals on goaltenders. I subscribe to the stop the fn puck school. I wonder how Dominik Hasek would respond.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Sanderson lacking a physical element was in comparison to Schneider. I'm sure you agree Schneider is the more physical player than Sanderson. Not saying Sanderson isn't physical, sorry if I worded that poorly.

Bordeleau plays pk, is good on the dot, and I like his compete level, but his defensive results were plain bad this year. His team allowed on average 41.35% more goals against when he was on the ice than when he wasn't.

Don’t know if Schneider is more physical. Seems pretty equal to me although Schneider looks for bigger hits in open ice more frequently whereas Sanderson is more physical in tight areas. Either way physicality is not lacking in either player.

Also, Bordeleau being on the ice for a chunk of goals against doesn’t mean he’s weak or a liability on an individual level. Unless you can pinpoint specific deficiencies in his game (positioning, read/react issues, laziness, etc) one should assume his defensive game is more than adequate since coaches at multiple levels entrusted him with key defensive roles. Besides, the NTDP was a very good defensive team this year.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Don’t know if Schneider is more physical. Seems pretty equal to me although Schneider looks for bigger hits in open ice more frequently whereas Sanderson is more physical in tight areas. Either way physicality is not lacking in either player.

Also, Bordeleau being on the ice for a chunk of goals against doesn’t mean he’s weak or a liability on an individual level. Unless you can pinpoint specific deficiencies in his game (positioning, read/react issues, laziness, etc) one should assume his defensive game is more than adequate since coaches at multiple levels entrusted him with key defensive roles. Besides, the NTDP was a very good defensive team this year.

Lack of strength and aggression as well as occasionally cheating for offense were, in my opinion, the main causes for Bordeleau's defensive woes this year. Nothing that can't be fixed though. And if a player's results aren't there you can absolutely make assumptions about their game, even if you can't pinpoint specific deficiencies. At some point the results need to come no matter how good a player looks during the game.

 

[thrillhous]

@Isaac Nootin

Any particular reason you gave this article a 1-star rating?

If true that is a childish move.

Nice list and write up CMM, I enjoyed it.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Lack of strength and aggression as well as occasionally cheating for offense were, in my opinion, the main causes for Bordeleau's defensive woes this year. Nothing that can't be fixed though. And if a player's results aren't there you can absolutely make assumptions about their game, even if you can't pinpoint specific deficiencies. At some point the results need to come no matter how good a player looks during the game.

Don’t see how strength and aggression have anything to do with defensive play. Those fall under physicality, no?

Defensive play has to do with reads, positioning, backcheck/forecheck, activity off the puck, and most importantly — usage. The NTDP had multiple two-way types but Appert consistently summoned Bordeleau for so many critical late/close situations...and the NTDP played a ton of close games.

If he was irresponsible flying the zone his coach would cut down his dzone role in close games rather than expand it.

I know you Didn't have time or room to expound on each player but those two snap assessments surprised me.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Don’t see how strength and aggression have anything to do with defensive play. Those fall under physicality, no?

Defensive play has to do with reads, positioning, backcheck/forecheck, activity off the puck, and most importantly — usage. The NTDP had multiple two-way types but Appert consistently summoned Bordeleau for so many critical late/close situations...and the NTDP played a ton of close games.

If he was irresponsible flying the zone his coach would cut down his dzone role in close games rather than expand it.

I know you Didn't have time or room to expound on each player but those two snap assessments surprised me.

Yes, but physicality is what allows players to gain control of loose pucks, knock players off the puck, etc.

Maybe I should have been more specific in my write-up for him.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Good looking list

 

[Outofbodyinhungary]

I don't see enough upside to justify a 1st-round pick. I see his ceiling as a complimentary 2nd/3rd line scorer. Nice player to have but I'd prefer to swing on someone with higher upside early on in the draft.

Eh I guess I see more brock boeser in his game. A solid 55-60 pt guy. A 1st liner on a weak team and a second liner on a string team. One of the youngest players in the draft and will continue to fill out. Better 2 way ability than people think, was shutting down top scorers from Russia, Sweden and USA last hlinka Gretzky cup alongside Oleksii Myklukha. While I see a guy like Peterka to max out as a Carl hagelin. A 2nd liner on a bad team and a 3rd liner on a good team.