On this note, I came here to share a wonderful Athletic Article that shows that McDavid is currently playing at peak Lemieux levels. It's paywalled, so I'll add some choice quotes too (bold and Mcjesus pic added by me) :
Even if McDavid doesn't reach the Stanley Cup Final, has he played well enough to earn the Conn Smythe?
theathletic.com
"Connor McDavid is in god mode.
There are plenty of other ways to describe it from “he looks like he’s in his own personal beer league” to “he can literally do whatever he wants out there” — but godly feels the most apt. We are all mere mortals, bearing witness to an ascent towards a previously unfathomable level of excellence. If the rest of the NHL is here on Earth, Connor McDavid is in another universe right now. In these playoffs, he has simply been otherworldly.
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We could stop at points and call it a day. McDavid has 25 already in just 11 games. It’s a mark that already ranks 22nd in the salary cap era with every single player ahead of him playing 20 games or more. His 2.27 points-per-game is the highest of any player to play 10 or more games with the next closest (after teammate Leon Draisaitl this year) being Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby in 2017-18 with 1.75. In fact, there have only been two other instances where a player had a higher points-per-game average: Wayne Gretzky in 1982-83 (2.38) and Wayne Gretzky in 1984-85 (2.61).
McDavid is the first player in 30 years to average over two points per game in the playoffs, with the last being Mario Lemieux in 1991-92 who also had 2.27 points per game. It’s something that’s only been done six other times in the modern era.
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And that’s all while being no slouch defensively either with the Oilers enjoying a strong positive impact in their own end whenever McDavid is on the ice.
He’s doing it all.
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Among games tracked this season, McDavid earned nearly 31 primary shot contributions per 60, meaning a shot or a primary shot assist. In the playoffs, he’s upped that to 41. During the season he carried the puck into the zone 19 times per 60. In the playoffs that shot up to 22 per 60.
In the playoffs, the competition gets tougher and each game becomes more of a grind, yet somehow McDavid has been able to do even more with the puck anyways.
Rather than conform to playoff style hockey, he’s forcing other teams to play his game and just try to stop him in the process. So far, they have failed at every turn.
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For GSVA specifically, the aim is to combine McDavid’s astonishing production with his immaculate play-driving ability into one number that’s easy to compare across players and seasons. McDavid having the most productive playoffs in over three decades and the best play-driving numbers in the analytics era means his total value is going to be high. Stupid high.
Consider what follows to be a value limit for a single player over a 10-game stretch… until McDavid breaks it again that is.
Again, let’s start with some context.
On a per-82 game basis, an average NHL forward is worth almost one win. A top-line forward is worth around two wins and an elite forward is worth around three wins.
A Hart Trophy winner is worth somewhere between four-to-seven wins depending on the season and McDavid himself is projected to be a six-win player. In his best season, the 2021 campaign where he won the Hart Trophy unanimously, McDavid was on pace to be worth seven wins.
In these playoffs, McDavid has already earned 1.5 wins of value in just 11 games —
an 82-game pace of 11.2 wins. Eleven wins. ELEVEN! That’s nearly twice as much value as he was projected to earn which is already an incredibly high bar. Playoff McDavid is basically Double McDavid which feels absolutely ridiculous to write and yet absolutely spot-on while watching him.
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On average, the best NBA player has been worth 18.5 wins over the last five years which is
twice as good as a top 30 player and 6.3 times better than an average NBA player.
McDavid’s playoff pace on the other hand is 2.7 times better than a top-20 forward (to account for the difference in league size) and a staggering 11.9 times better than an average NHL forward. The relative difference is astonishing — it’s McDavid vs. The World.
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The Conn Smythe is not a Stanley Cup Final award, it’s an award for playoff MVP. That means all the playoffs and, at this point, it’s already becoming difficult to imagine anyone catching McDavid.
Historically, he’s actually already done enough.
In 11 games McDavid has already put up 1.5 wins of value, as mentioned previously. The average Conn Smythe winner? They put up 1.1 wins throughout the
entire postseason. McDavid’s 1.5 wins already rank seventh since 2008, 0.47 wins away from the best playoff season by a skater according to GSVA (
Nikita Kucherov in 2019-20 at 1.97 wins).
If McDavid makes it to the third round, something his team currently has an 84 percent chance of doing,
he’ll have a very strong chance of surpassing that mark set by Kucherov before even making it to the Stanley Cup Final. If he does and his team doesn’t make it, should that really be a deterrent? Should he not still be considered for the playoff MVP for what he did for three rounds — nearly singlehandedly carrying a team that far when not many figured they could?
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The best and brightest players have that innate drive to go above and beyond, willing their team to victory. You can see it in spurts sometimes, like a shooting star. But McDavid’s postseason has felt like a full-on meteor shower, a continuous wave of cosmic light that keeps you in sustained awe.
There are plenty of ways to describe how McDavid is playing in this post-season, but very few feel like they’re truly doing him justice. He’s an indescribable talent in this sport and already one of the greatest this game has ever seen. Right now, we’re watching him create his magnum opus.
Enjoy it."
(hope I didn't paste too much to run afoul of board rules - there's still half an article of insane stats there!)
hfboards.mandatory.com
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