Max Pacioretty: 5 on 5 beast

[That Habs Fan]

Making a very very strong case for the captainship.

I usually don't like the idea of giving the C to your top point getter, but in this case he plays like a Captain.

 

[Seb]

4 on 5 beast as well.

 

[cajmonkey]

Such a complete player and he's only going to get better.

 

[Habsfan2731]

I think he'll be Captain, he's taken more then one incredible step forward in all aspects of his game on the ice & his leadership off the ice, I'm glad to see him getting recognized.

 

[sharks9]

He should be getting at least some Selke votes this year. Not that I think he should win it, but he's been a beast defensively and deserves some recognition for it.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Such a complete player and he's only going to get better.

He's currently 5th in ES goals since 2012 according to stats.hockeyanalysis.com

But he's also tied for 74th for ES assists. That's not all that great to be honest, and I find it hard to classify a guy as a "complete player" if he's missing playmaking abilities

 

[januaryrose]

He's currently 5th in ES goals since 2012 according to stats.hockeyanalysis.com

But he's also tied for 74th for ES assists. That's not all that great to be honest, and I find it hard to classify a guy as a "complete player" if he's missing playmaking abilities

The guy makes Dale Weise and David Desharnais score a bunch of goals, what more do you want to prove his playmaking abilities?

 

[radicalcenter]

He's currently 5th in ES goals since 2012 according to stats.hockeyanalysis.com

But he's also tied for 74th for ES assists. That's not all that great to be honest, and I find it hard to classify a guy as a "complete player" if he's missing playmaking abilities

He's been almost exclusively playing with Desharnais in that time period or aka Mr. I refuse to take a shot.

In the ten or so games he played with Galchenyuk, he showed that he is also an excellent playmaker

 

[HarrisonFord]

The guy makes Dale Weise and David Desharnais score a bunch of goals, what more do you want to prove his playmaking abilities?

He's been almost exclusively playing with Desharnais in that time period or aka Mr. I refuse to take a shot.

In the ten or so games he played with Galchenyuk, he showed that he is also an excellent playmaker

He's actually barely played with Weise this year. He's actually only played about 55% of the time with Desharnais this season as well. He's played a lot with Gallagher actually.

 

[Sidney BrOSSby*]

The guy makes Dale Weise and David Desharnais score a bunch of goals, what more do you want to prove his playmaking abilities?

I may be wrong, but I believe the original poster was thinking along the lines of him being worthy of "the C".

 

[FireBurningBin]

He's actually barely played with Weise this year. He's actually only played about 55% of the time with Desharnais this season as well. He's played a lot with Gallagher actually.

I think his argument regarding Weise was his ability to increase his goalscoring substantially when played with him. His influence on Galchenyuk's goalscoring when they were paired together was also quite interesting.

When he was drafted Max actually used to be more of a playmaker, and only until his last AHL season did he really develop a habit for scoring. I assume he doesn't pass as much anymore given both his linemates' (lack of) scoring ability and the extent we rely on him to score goals, as after Max, Galchenyuk and Plekanec are our best shooters, who of course are more playmakers in their own right.

 

[januaryrose]

He's actually barely played with Weise this year. He's actually only played about 55% of the time with Desharnais this season as well. He's played a lot with Gallagher actually.

He's barely played with Weise, yes, but Weise IS scoring goals when playing with Patches. Wich is something he's barely doing otherwise.

 

[HarrisonFord]

I may be wrong, but I believe the original poster was thinking along the lines of him being worthy of "the C".

Oh, well in terms of being the C, I definitely agree that Pacioretty is probably the best choice for the C

I think his argument regarding Weise was his ability to increase his goalscoring substantially when played with him. His influence on Galchenyuk's goalscoring when they were paired together was also quite interesting.

When he was drafted Max actually used to be more of a playmaker, and only until his last AHL season did he really develop a habit for scoring. I assume he doesn't pass as much anymore given both his linemates' (lack of) scoring ability and the extent we rely on him to score goals, as after Max, Galchenyuk and Plekanec are our best shooters, who of course are more playmakers in their own right.

While I would agree with you, I would also point out that when not playing with Pacioretty, his most often played with teammate is Manny Malholtra

Hmm, that's interesting. He seemed to have the point distribution of a playmaker until 2010-2011, and then outside of the lockout season, it was always more goals than assists. Who knows, maybe he'd pass more if he had better shooting linemates to play with

 

[eklunds source]

Compare the +/- with his teammates and linemates and that's where you can see the value of the +/- stat.

No, there is no value. It is a reflection of goaltender performance, in front of them and behind them.

Also, players can affect the SV% of a goaltender and that's the very reason why SV% cannot be used as the be-all and end-all argument when comparing goaltenders.

That is blatantly false. I don't know where you invented that idea but it's been pretty well documented for years that it's untrue.

Defensemen still have no control over save percentage

The 10% of players with the most extreme negative impact in their first two seasons end up having no impact on average over the next two seasons. In contrast the 10% of players with the most extreme positive impact in their first two seasons end up with a positive of about +0.005, less than 20% of the impact the previous two seasons.

Ultimately, defenders fail in being able to sustainably improve or worsen their goaltender’s save percentage. The model only explains 2.6% of the outputs.

The uncontrollability of on-ice save percentage

A R2 of 0.0002 is essentially non-existent. You are likely to make a stronger correlation blindfolded and putting dots on there at random.

Well what about relative save percentage then? Again we see a pattern that mirrors randomness. It is almost 50% likely that a player who had a positive or negative effect will see the opposite the following season.

Save percentage variability regression

Over a three-year span, it doesn't matter whether a forward sees his team stop 94% or 90% of the shots with him on the ice at 5-on-5; either way, the best guess for how he'll do in the next three years is league average. If there are differences between players in their ability to influence the opponents' shooting percentage, those differences are much less than whatever other random factors come into play.

It doesn't even pass the "common sense" test - the worst on-ice save percentage of the Boston Bruins is Patrice Bergeron (0.890) and the best is David Pastrnak (0.982). If you think that Patrice Bergeron is somehow causing Rask to play worse than an AHL backup, while the rookie Pastrnak is assisting Boston goalies in playing an order of magnitude better than any Vezina winner ever, then sure, maybe players can affect save percentage in that world.

I don't disagree with your point, but this is complete BS. Ask Francis Bouillon, Mike Weaver, Alexei Emelin, Tom Gilbert and Bryan Allen how they impacted Price's Sv % in the last two years, they'll teach you a few tricks.

Price's sv% with Markov on the ice over the past 3 years (2012-2015):
0.936 (elite)
0.912 (well below league avg)
0.940 (elite)

Price's sv% with Emelin over the past 3 years:
0.934 (elite)
0.911 (well below league avg)
0.936 (elite)

Price's sv% with Gilbert on the ice this year: 0.942 (elite)

random. not something players can affect.

 

[HarrisonFord]

He's barely played with Weise, yes, but Weise IS scoring goals when playing with Patches. Wich is something he's barely doing otherwise.

While I obviously can't look up any examples of scoring chances that Patches set Weise up for that he just missed, from the goals that Weise has scored since being put with DD and Patches:

1. Pacioretty shoots the puck blindly from the far corner, it trickles through Rask, Weise taps it in.

2. Pacioretty shoots the puck from the point, Weise puts the rebound past Kinkaid.

3. Pacioretty tips puck into the Isles end, Plekanec grabs it, feeds a streaking Weise who re-directs it past Halak

4. Pacioretty makes a nice pass from the corner to a streaking Weise who beats Kinkaid


The rest of Weise's goals were scored without Patches getting an assist, and I dont believe they were on the same line either

 

[Dharvey33]

Paciorretty is a pure sniper with wheels. That's what he is. Basically a bigger Kessel but more responsible in his own zone. He is complete but he is not a power forward.

He has success when he shoots the puck instead of deeking and never stop moving his feet. In this particular area he is probably a top 5 goal scorer in the league.

Put him with a guy like Backstrom, Malkin, Getzlaf, Giroux and he hits 50 goals.

 

[ARSix]

The 70% GF is basically the result of a massive 105+ PDO, so that's just smoke and mirrors (or a lot of it is). But everything else is totally true. Guy's awesome.

 

[tony d]

Patches is pretty good. Easily one of the top 10-15 wingers in the game right now.

 

[radicalcenter]

He's actually barely played with Weise this year. He's actually only played about 55% of the time with Desharnais this season as well. He's played a lot with Gallagher actually.

The guy I responded too was talking about the last 4 years...

 

[Mrb1p]

No, there is no value. It is a reflection of goaltender performance, in front of them and behind them.


That is blatantly false. I don't know where you invented that idea but it's been pretty well documented for years that it's untrue.

Defensemen still have no control over save percentage


The uncontrollability of on-ice save percentage


Save percentage variability regression



It doesn't even pass the "common sense" test - the worst on-ice save percentage of the Boston Bruins is Patrice Bergeron (0.890) and the best is David Pastrnak (0.982). If you think that Patrice Bergeron is somehow causing Rask to play worse than an AHL backup, while the rookie Pastrnak is assisting Boston goalies in playing an order of magnitude better than any Vezina winner ever, then sure, maybe players can affect save percentage in that world.



Price's sv% with Markov on the ice over the past 3 years (2012-2015):
0.936 (elite)
0.912 (well below league avg)
0.940 (elite)

Price's sv% with Emelin over the past 3 years:
0.934 (elite)
0.911 (well below league avg)
0.936 (elite)

Price's sv% with Gilbert on the ice this year: 0.942 (elite)

random. not something players can affect.

Obviously youre not taking into account that quality of competition changes with the save percentage and you're pretty much only looking at a stats out of context. Don't do numbers if you can't do them right.

 

[habamillions]

Guess who has the second most EV goals in the last 4 years? I doubt many of you would have guessed.

However, I have been blown away by his defensive play this year. Once again yesterday, he stopped at least 2 2 on 1's with his backchecks and the goal he scored started in the defensive zone.

I am usually not a fan of the +/- but his +22 is good for 5th in the league. The second best on the team is Weise at +11.

His 5 on 5 GA/60 min is 1.358 (team avg is 1.94)
His GF% is 70.5% (team is 56.2%)

He is a big reason why the Habs are the 4th best team at 5 on 5 this season. Of course, having Carey Price helps as well.

he plus minus is laughable

 

[cajmonkey]

He's currently 5th in ES goals since 2012 according to stats.hockeyanalysis.com

But he's also tied for 74th for ES assists. That's not all that great to be honest, and I find it hard to classify a guy as a "complete player" if he's missing playmaking abilities

Did you not watch him with Vanek last year? And Chucky this year?


Everyone forgets how good his playmaking can be because he's always putting the puck in the net.

 

[PuckSeparator]

He's been amazing the last 2 seasons, but his defensive play this year has been even better.

Crazy how he places himself in a position for a breakaway so often!

It's called being a cheetah

 

[Nicko999]

It's called being a cheetah

It's called having a nose for scoring goals. All offensive players do that.

He usually speeds up for the breakaway only when we have possession of the puck.

 

[sharks9]

It's called being a cheetah

It's called guarding the point which is what wingers are supposed to do.