Player Discussion Matthew Knies | Built for the Playoffs

[ToneDog]

1st are magic beans. Knies is a 23 year old PWF with a shitload more upside. Trading him would be utterly Pejorative Slured.

You are getting a mix of firsts and blue chip prospects like Hage and Reinbacher. Hage and Reinbacher are both top 10 picks. Both fill areas of need and Leafs are deep on the LW. You got to give to get.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

God we were talking about trading Knies for the #2 or #4 overall picks! Not the centre piece being a freaking WINGER taken in the 2nd round and two 1sts probably at pick 25 each!

Blacklist Treliving, oh my god what an absolute moron. There is zero silver lining there its just a bunch of quantity.

 

[cyris]

When he is good, he is really good but he does not drop the mitts, inflict pain or intimidate like Tom Wilson. IMO he falls somewhere above Bert and below Wilson. Solid player but hard to turn down the right 4 firsts for him. Hage + Reinbacher and 2 firsts is a no brainer for me but I doubt Habs are that desperate to acquire him.

Reinbacher is not trending well at all. He looks injury prone has a bad knee and wasn’t even the best D prospect on Laval last season.
If you ignore draft position people wouldn’t me nearly that high on him

 

[ToneDog]

Although I hate his age, he fits the Matthews timeline well enough.

Not sure I like the price tag though. Detroit going to want a lot.

Rather target Thomas than Larkin. I don't think Leafs are willing to trade what it will take to acquire either. Habs and Canes should be all over one of them.

 

[cyris]

You are getting a mix of firsts and blue chip prospects like Hage and Reinbacher. Hage and Reinbacher are both top 10 picks. Both fill areas of need and Leafs are deep on the LW. You got to give to get.

Who cares where they were drafted. Hage has progressed decently as a prospect but Reinbacher hasn’t.
He has had serious injuries as a prospect and no one should value him as a top 10 pick at this point.

 

[Aashir]

Rather target Thomas than Larkin. I don't think Leafs are willing to trade what it will take to acquire either. Habs and Canes should be all over one of them.

Agreed, Thomas costs Knies+ tbh and I don’t know if we have the assets to do that.

Knies for Larkin would he 1 for 1 for me, and I doubt DET does a deal without a Center coming back, or it heing multiple pieces so they can parlay that into EP40 or something

 

[ToneDog]

Reinbacher is not trending well at all. He looks injury prone has a bad knee and wasn’t even the best D prospect on Laval last season.
If you ignore draft position people wouldn’t me nearly that high on him

Honestly, I would prefer Dobson if that is even possible. Otherwise I'd be asking for their top two prospects and two firsts. Seems a bit rich to me but some think it is not enough for Knies.

 

[Aashir]

Honestly, I would prefer Dobson if that is even possible. Otherwise I'd be asking for their top two prospects and two firsts. Seems a bit rich to me but some think it is not enough for Knies.

I think it’s partly a “Montreal tax”

2 A prospects and 2 firsts is good value for knies, but trading him in division to a rival and watching him tear us and others up has us wanting even more

Not to mention the original deal is based on a winger and “some other prospect” most likely not reinhacher or hage

 

[cyris]

Honestly, I would prefer Dobson if that is even possible. Otherwise I'd be asking for their top two prospects and two firsts. Seems a bit rich to me but some think it is not enough for Knies.

We definitely need to set the price much higher than the rumoured return. It’s quite simple, they really want Knies but we don’t want to trade him.
If they want to make us an offer impossible to say no to cool and if not then we get to keep a player we never wanted to be rid of in the first place. They want this player a hell of a lot more than we want to move him.
You can see this based off how pissed their GM and fans are it didn’t happen.

 

[Brobust]

When he is good, he is really good but he does not drop the mitts, inflict pain or intimidate like Tom Wilson. IMO he falls somewhere above Bert and below Wilson. Solid player but hard to turn down the right 4 firsts for him. Hage + Reinbacher and 2 firsts is a no brainer for me but I doubt Habs are that desperate to acquire him.

Not dropping the mitts is not a qualifier. That kind of thinking would make Harbour Jackass one of the more valuable players in the league. Knies is a complementary top line player who can physically impose himself and make plays. This fantasy trade of Hage + Reinbacher didn't even exist, and if it did it still wouldn't be enough.

 

[cyris]

I think it’s partly a “Montreal tax”

2 A prospects and 2 firsts is good value for knies, but trading him in division to a rival and watching him tear us and others up has us wanting even more

Not to mention the original deal is based on a winger and “some other prospect” most likely not reinhacher or hage

“2 firsts” means nothing. There is a drastically different value to first round picks depending on where they end up.
Montreal’s first this year is 29th. It’s likely to be late next year too.
The first Tre allegedly turned down for OEL ended up as the 15oa. Both Montreal 1st likely don’t get you that pick. In the difference between Knies value and OEL’s a good but not blue chip prospect?

 

[LeafGrief]

You are getting a mix of firsts and blue chip prospects like Hage and Reinbacher. Hage and Reinbacher are both top 10 picks. Both fill areas of need and Leafs are deep on the LW. You got to give to get.

Two good players under 25, one who has not played an NHL shift yet, is not “deep at LW”. Were we deep at C this year with Matthews, JT, and whoever the heck else we had?

You do have to give to get. I’d give up Knies for Harley from Dallas. But trading him for 25 OA picks and some guys who have never played an NHL game is preposterous. “A mix” is the first clue that this is a bad idea, why are we so keen to give up the best player in a trade when that guy is 23 and signed to term???????

I just don’t get this one bit. I’d trade every single other rostered player and prospect we have before Knies.

 

[kb]

Keep 'em all and moving Matthews instead makes a lot more sense to me.

It really makes no sense, it's seems personal for you apparently. Why bottom out when you don't have your own picks?

Can we loop back to that fact?

 

[TheRumble]

I'm actually of the opinion that first round picks from Montreal aren't actually a bad deal if they're unprotected. It'd be a calculated risk.

The team had an incredible season last year but has a lot of yellow flags:

- They had the highest shooting percentage in the league
- Dobes had a crazy playoff run. He had an over .900 save percentage on high danger shots, that is basically Hasek at the 98 Olympics
- In terms of shot metrics they were a middling team and actually were slightly outshot. In the playoffs they were dummied in like every game
- The Atlantic is going to be highly competitive next year: Florida is too old to be rebuilding, they're going for it. Ditto for Tampa. Boston doesn't need to tank, they have us. Ottawa and Buffalo just made the playoffs they're not tanking. We literally cannot tank as we have no picks. Detroit is in an awkward spot due to the ages of Raymond and Seider but they're probably not gonna be a good team with no 1C. So 7 of the 8 teams are not tanking, only a max of 5 can make the playoffs. There's a non-zero chance Montreal misses.
- The risk of course, how good will Montreal's young players be next year: Demidov, Hutson, Reinnbacher, Slaf and Dobes are all young enough to take big steps next year.

The only thing that makes me reluctant on the trade is I don't know how good Montreal's non-premium prospects are.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I'm actually of the opinion that first round picks from Montreal aren't actually a bad deal if they're unprotected. It'd be a calculated risk.

The team had an incredible season last year but has a lot of yellow flags:

- They had the highest shooting percentage in the league
- Dobes had a crazy playoff run. He had an over .900 save percentage on high danger shots, that is basically Hasek at the 98 Olympics
- In terms of shot metrics they were a middling team and actually were slightly outshot. In the playoffs they were dummied in like every game
- The Atlantic is going to be highly competitive next year: Florida is too old to be rebuilding, they're going for it. Ditto for Tampa. Boston doesn't need to tank, they have us. Ottawa and Buffalo just made the playoffs they're not tanking. We literally cannot tank as we have no picks. Detroit is in an awkward spot due to the ages of Raymond and Seider but they're probably not gonna be a good team with no 1C. So 7 of the 8 teams are not tanking, only a max of 5 can make the playoffs. There's a non-zero chance Montreal misses.
- The risk of course, how good will Montreal's young players be next year: Demidov, Hutson, Reinnbacher, Slaf and Dobes are all young enough to take big steps next year.

The only thing that makes me reluctant on the trade is I don't know how good Montreal's non-premium prospects are.

Even the 20s picks get undersold in terms of what they can get you. The main argument against them is that we could have had similar teens/20s picks selling off pieces we won’t miss like OEL or retaining on McMann and Laughton + bundling them together. McMann+Laughton @ 50%, Roy, OEL, Carlo @50% would have yielded the same 4 mid-late 1sts, maybe more. If we turned those picks into either 2x Cowan + 2x Danford or bundled them into a Thomas/Dobson tier prime aged upgrade I think we’d be happy with that return. I’d be not happy but probably ok with that return for Knies, what I’d be pissed about is that we had to spend our best unique trade chip on it instead of just intelligently liquidating our nice-to-have vets on short deals.

 

[Stephen]

I think it’s partly a “Montreal tax”

2 A prospects and 2 firsts is good value for knies, but trading him in division to a rival and watching him tear us and others up has us wanting even more

Not to mention the original deal is based on a winger and “some other prospect” most likely not reinhacher or hage

Montreal has to lose the trade in spectacular overpay fashion for this Knies trade to make sense for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

They want Knies. There's no pressure point to move Knies. We don't want to move him.

The trade has to not only benefit us tremendously, but hurt them and be a net negative as a division and forever rival for this to ever make sense.

We have to play for keeps as an organization and it starts off the ice.

 

[notbias]

1st are magic beans, especially since the Habs are a top10 team who just went to the conference finals. Knies is a 23 year old PWF with a shitload more upside. Trading him would be utterly Pejorative Slured.

I don't understand this logic...

You don't want "magic beans" and then you are referencing potential Knies may never hit... it sums up the whole thread.

But what's the point of trading him for a quantity package of lesser assets they could individually acquire by moving other, lesser pieces? If the team wants a want a couple late 1sts trade oel and Carlo.

It just strikes me as a massive missed opportunity

I think Knies is fairly overrated. I'd rather they grab Zharovsky (whatever his name is) cause his potential is pretty high, and then can move the 1sts for good young pieces, and you also now have $8 million in cap space (grab Tuch as a Knies replacement, I don't know).

I just think it is smart asset management to take the overpayment.

If Knies has this much value, I just hope they shop him around and hear some offers, I saw something like the 4th + Rinzel too... take that and run.

 

[Stephen]

Even the 20s picks get undersold in terms of what they can get you. The main argument against them is that we could have had similar teens/20s picks selling off pieces we won’t miss like OEL or retaining on McMann and Laughton + bundling them together. McMann+Laughton @ 50%, Roy, OEL, Carlo @50% would have yielded the same 4 mid-late 1sts, maybe more. If we turned those picks into either 2x Cowan + 2x Danford or bundled them into a Thomas/Dobson tier prime aged upgrade I think we’d be happy with that return. I’d be not happy but probably ok with that return for Knies, what I’d be pissed about is that we had to spend our best unique trade chip on it instead of just intelligently liquidating our nice-to-have vets on short deals.

There's an illogical wrinkle in the exchange rate between picks and prospects and player trades in the NHL economy where it seems like you can trade lower value roster players for relatively better futures haul. You'd never be able to trade McMann, Laughton, Roy and get yourself a Matthew Knies level young player with star potential, but their raw picks value approaches something of a Knies overpay.

What does that tell me? If you need to retool and acquire draft capital, the best way to do it is to just scoop up middle class NHL veteran talent and sell it off at the trade deadline to manufacture assets. The Daniel Winnik method. It makes no sense to exchange a dollar for 4 quarters. It's almost debatable if it's worth 5 quarters.

 

[RoadWarrior]

It really is a mind numbing logic when you consider the fact that at the TDL, the prospect of even retaining our 2026 1st was far fetched, let alone getting the 1st overall pick.

At this current point I don't know if you can return the Knies relationship to what it once was. This is such a damaging report. To know you were traded but had it nixed due to clerical incompetence is beyond unacceptable. It's almost as damaging as the trade itself.

I just don't see how you recover that relationship. Brad may not be here anymore, but he would have needed board approval to make that move and KP represents the board in that room. Keith Pelly is still the head of this snake. There is no way Matthew can feel any sort of comfort going forward. Truly a failure of the highest degree. Not enough heads have rolled for this f*** up TBH.

No matter what happens with 23, I will always cheer for that dude. There's absolutely no way he didn't know about what was going on at the TDL to end the year, and he never dragged his feet or bitched about it. Continued to play through injury despite his moron GM and ownership group having a deal in place to move him. What a pro

The ownership fired the GM who attempted the trade.

Relationship fixed.

No mention of trades from Chayka.

The trade was the brainchild of Kent Hughes not leafs ownership and certainly not the intellectually challenged Brad.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I don't understand this logic...

You don't want "magic beans" and then you are referencing potential Knies may never hit... it sums up the whole thread.



I think Knies is fairly overrated. I'd rather they grab Zharovsky (whatever his name is) cause his potential is pretty high, and then can move the 1sts for good young pieces, and you also now have $8 million in cap space (grab Tuch as a Knies replacement, I don't know).

I just think it is smart asset management to take the overpayment.

If Knies has this much value, I just hope they shop him around and hear some offers, I saw something like the 4th + Rinzel too... take that and run.

Let’s trade the proven top 6 player and unicorn power forward for a couple of mystery boxes…yeah! That always works out.

Late firsts and a russian prospect is not overpayment. The quality of competition in the KHL has been declining for years now so his stats are exaggerated.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It really makes no sense, it's seems personal for you apparently. Why bottom out when you don't have your own picks?

Can we loop back to that fact?

Who said anything about bottoming out? What fact?

You seem confused. Maybe you're in love with Matthews so it's personal for you and that's why you're having trouble keeping your facts straight?

 

[arso40]

Everyone is tradable but the returning package needs to good. Ideally fleecing the other team, lol.

If you are trading the best player in the deal, you better make sure the returning package makes sense can have a good chance of being close if not better than the player you sending out.

Look at both Rantanen deal. Rantanen is by far the best player in that deal. But both Necas and Stankoven are proving that they are not too far behind than Rantanen, plus both players fits into the team system.

Imagine if we could have traded Marner and didn’t get forced to take Roy in a sign and trade

 

[Stephen]

The ownership fired the GM who attempted the trade.

Relationship fixed.

No mention of trades from Chayka.

The trade was the brainchild of Kent Hughes not leafs ownership and certainly not the intellectually challenged Brad.

The way Kent Hughes talked about Marner and Toronto being a cautionary tale in his bizarre season ending conference should mean we don't work with Montreal on any business. There's no incentive to hand over a potential finishing piece who might be a power forward for a long time in this league to a rival that talks shit about you like that.

 

[LeafGrief]

I don't understand this logic...

You don't want "magic beans" and then you are referencing potential Knies may never hit... it sums up the whole thread.



I think Knies is fairly overrated. I'd rather they grab Zharovsky (whatever his name is) cause his potential is pretty high, and then can move the 1sts for good young pieces, and you also now have $8 million in cap space (grab Tuch as a Knies replacement, I don't know).

I just think it is smart asset management to take the overpayment.

If Knies has this much value, I just hope they shop him around and hear some offers, I saw something like the 4th + Rinzel too... take that and run.

Brother, you understand the difference of magic beans/potential between a 23 year old with 29g and 66p seasons, and guys who’ve never played an NHL game. You’re allowed to think he’s overrated, but this is pretty basic hockey logic.

 

[Martin Skoula]

There's an illogical wrinkle in the exchange rate between picks and prospects and player trades in the NHL economy where it seems like you can trade lower value roster players for relatively better futures haul. You'd never be able to trade McMann, Laughton, Roy and get yourself a Matthew Knies level young player with star potential, but their raw picks value approaches something of a Knies overpay.

What does that tell me? If you need to retool and acquire draft capital, the best way to do it is to just scoop up middle class NHL veteran talent and sell it off at the trade deadline to manufacture assets. The Daniel Winnik method. It makes no sense to exchange a dollar for 4 quarters. It's almost debatable if it's worth 5 quarters.

Yeah if you take any of the most rare/expensive player profiles (prime aged 1RD, big two-way 1C, PPG+ PWF wing with term), the most expensive deals for the best of the best at those positions are the same return you’d get selling off 2-4 deadline rental premium grinders.

Hughes, Karlsson, Seth Jones (the first time), Eichel, Tkachuk, Pronger, etc are all hardcapped at roughly 4-5x late 1st value. I get most of them had extenuating circumstances and trade protection so it wasn’t a full auction on them but still, they should not be worth the same price as selling off 4 grinders we barely noticed being gone.

It’s baffling that no one is doing a Domi/Bertuzzi 1 year overpay and flipping them at 50% every year, it’s free money.