Player Discussion Matt Murray (G) - 4 years, $6.25M AAV

[Tuna99]

It's a 4 year contract, by year three Chabot is 26, Tkachuk 24, Batherson 25, Norris 24, Brannstrom 24, JBD 23, Stuetzle and Sanderson 21,

The reality is it's not every year a top tier goalie becomes available, and you can lock them up, and there's value in having a solid goalie covering up for rookie mistakes, confidence is important for the kids.

Once the deal is done, Murray is still only 30, still lots of good years left if we want to re-sign him.

And lastly, we have to reach the floor while we introduce a tone of guys on their ELC. When guys like Anisimov and Gudbranson get cycled out for prospects, we need still need to reach the floor.

Is Murray A top flight goalie? Lots of people say he isn’t and when you look at the record you have to agree. The Cup are always there but his last two seasons have been below average and his underlying stats make you turn away

 

[Sweatred]

We shall see. Lets not derail another thread into White discussion though.

I'd be pissed if we signed Josh Anderson to that contract, it's very risky too. Hope for Anderson it turns out well as i like the player but hope for Mtl that it bites them in the ass because screw mtl.

Anyways, i like the Murray signing, but the nervous reactions are simply are reflection of the percieved risk. Its not hard to understand.

I’m a bit nervous too ... but it feels like the market cost with JM at 6 years, Talbot at 4, and Crawford for 2 years.... I think I like our deal as much as any of those.

 

[Micklebot]

Is Murray A top flight goalie? Lots of people say he isn’t and when you look at the record you have to agree. The Cup are always there but his last two seasons have been below average and his underlying stats make you turn away

He had the 10th best sv% of any starter last season. This year he sucked, but how is an .919sv% below average?

 

[JD1]

Murray is a tale of two goalies

Pre injury and post injury

In the history of this franchise we've never had anyone remotely close to his credentials locked up for 4 years of their prime

 

[GCK]

We shall see. Lets not derail another thread into White discussion though.

I'd be pissed if we signed Josh Anderson to that contract, it's very risky too. Hope for Anderson it turns out well as i like the player but hope for Mtl that it bites them in the ass because screw mtl.

Anyways, i like the Murray signing, but the nervous reactions are simply are reflection of the percieved risk. Its not hard to understand.

Mtl gave themselves some protection by not adding any SBs which makes the contract more buyout friendly.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Is Murray A top flight goalie? Lots of people say he isn’t and when you look at the record you have to agree. The Cup are always there but his last two seasons have been below average and his underlying stats make you turn away

Not sure where this “last couple years” thing I’ve seen everywhere comes from?
last year was not great for sure at .899 save percentage but the year before he played 50 games and had a .919
That’s top 10 out of 40+ goalies who played significant games.

 

[CapFriendly]

Thanks for the reference. CapFriendly does not have the LTIR. I guess it may occur soon.

Players can’t be placed on LTIR until the first day of the season.

Hi, saw this post and just wanted to clarify a few things:

I haven't seen the Dorion interview where he referenced LTIR, but since the team is not at the upper limit, an LTIR placement intended for cap relief won't occur, we would show Nilsson on the site as on IR, even if it is intended as a long term placement. The benefits of both would be the same for a team well below the upper limit: the player does not count towards the 23 player limit.

As for LTIR, there is an off-season LTIR; however, for the start of the season, teams can place players on LTIR the day before the season begins allowing them to become cap compliant to start the season.

 

[thammias]

I'm ok with the overpayment because I am happy with the term.

With a young team like ours I think having stability in the net is essential. Especially with Nilsson not being 100% having a rotating crew of him Hogberg and Gustavsson to see if the cream rises to the top would not be the ideal situation for a young team bound to make a lot of mistakes.

We now know who our Number 1 guy is going forward unless someone else plays lights out to unseat him.

 

[Xspyrit]

Bizarro World - Sens fans love giving Colin White $4.75 but giving Matt Murray$1.5 more @ $6.25 scares the crap out of them.

That's a first, I'm agreeing with you on a White related post.

We have to be consistent. If White at 4.75 is nothing dramatic then Murray at 6.25 is not too dramatic as well. And I think the 4 years is also reassuring because 7-8 years would be very stressful.

I don't think it' ll be very hard for White to earn his salary or at least close to it. Even in a sophomore season where he struggled with injury and consistency/efficiency, he still scored at a 30 pts pace... He will need to have seasons closer to his rookie season to be worth his contract but I don't think it'll be that hard as he matures and gains experience (he'll have to work on his body and get stronger though) and also as the team as whole gets better. But that's not my point

The point is that it'll be hard for Murray to be worth his contract because it is a more expensive salary and if he plays like last year it'll be a problem. However if he can get back to his first 2 years level or even just 2018-19, then he'll be worth even more than his CH. He has shown ELITE ability in the past, so while it could obviously not work out, it could also pay big time. Or he could be just a solid starter worth his contract. This could play out in many kind of ways, there's always risk when you significant players but that's a risk you have to take if you are running a NHL team.

 

[HSF]

Not sure where this “last couple years” thing I’ve seen everywhere comes from?
last year was not great for sure at .899 save percentage but the year before he played 50 games and had a .919
That’s top 10 out of 40+ goalies who played significant games.

One guy just spewing random stuff then the masses following

 

[Dionysus]

Great to have some stability in net! Hopefully Murray can find his form as a top 10 starter in the league, that would really help this young sens team turn the corner.

I think 4 years is just about right for term, 6.25 might be a bit high in comparison to other high end goalies, but it isn't a big deal for a team that is not going to be at the cap ceiling. Overall very exciting!

 

[The Lewler]

Bottom line is Ottawa managed to get an RFA with a high pedigree in his prime to sign an extension, and to a reasonable term and value .

Yes we all acknowledge the question marks , but you just signed a two time cup winning goalie at 26.

Could this go wrong ? Sure. But that’s just normal risk reward . The more I’ve pondered this , the more I like it.

But this is one of the biggest moves this franchise made in terms of adding , ever .

 

[Ice-Tray]

Did I read in here somewhere that there are people that would balk at singing a 25 year old Roy to that contract? Strange

This is a great signing in my opinion. Murray has a lot to prove, and will be tremendously happy with Ottawa for giving up assets to get him and give him a chance to redeem/revitalize/prove himself with a young hardworking team.

On the surface it looks like the perfect match for Murray and Ottawa on so many levels.

We should also be enjoying that the team is spending money on the guys they want to keep. Murray and Chabot are not small deals.

 

[TheDebater]

Murray is definitely a huge gamble, but most successful teams end up hitting it out of the park on at least one gamble. If Matt Murray can be "average" enough during the regular season for us to make the playoffs, then who would not be confident going in to the post-season with a two time cup winner back stopping their team?

 

[Tuna99]

He had the 10th best sv% of any starter last season. This year he sucked, but how is an .919sv% below average?

There’s risk in any move, I like the 4 year term and of course, if he’s awesome again I’m happy to be wrong. There were goalies I had ahead of
Murray, and he’s a calm guy and that’s good for a young team.

 

[GCK]

I’m not the biggest Matt Murray fan and I feel there’s some risk involved here but I find it fascinating how the Toronto centric media has gone from praising Murray as a great option for a number of teams to saying he is basically a below average reclamation project now that he is a Senator.

 

[The Lewler]

I’m not the biggest Matt Murray fan and I feel there’s some risk involved here but I find it fascinating how the Toronto centric media has gone from praising Murray as a great option for a number of teams to saying he is basically a below average reclamation project now that he is a Senator.

Shocked . Shocked I say .

Everyone to the Leafs , and if not , they suck .

 

[Cosmix]

The Athletic take on Murray:
"He was an elite goalie in his first two seasons, but in the three years since has been anything but, looking closer to replacement level due to two very rough seasons in 2017 and 2019. With his most recent season being his worst, it seems nearly unfathomable that Murray could fetch this kind of AAV. He should bounce back this season toward a more respectable save percentage and there’s always a chance he can regain his prior form – he’s still relatively young – but the cap hit still seems rather outlandish."

 

[Clamshells]

Ottawa has to simultaneously overpay if they want any chance to sign free agents, and get lambasted for overpaying free agents.

The true value of this contract won't be known until we see how he performs when this team is ready to compete.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

The Athletic take on Murray:
"He was an elite goalie in his first two seasons, but in the three years since has been anything but, looking closer to replacement level due to two very rough seasons in 2017 and 2019. With his most recent season being his worst, it seems nearly unfathomable that Murray could fetch this kind of AAV. He should bounce back this season toward a more respectable save percentage and there’s always a chance he can regain his prior form – he’s still relatively young – but the cap hit still seems rather outlandish."

the contract makes no sense. He’s the 7th highest paid goalie in the league

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Just glad they aren't rolling back Anderson. At least they're trying something that has a chance of success.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Is he not on his last year of his contract from Pittsburgh for the 2020-2021 season?

 

[GCK]

Is he not on his last year of his contract from Pittsburgh for the 2020-2021 season?

Nope. He was RFA

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Nope. He was RFA

Oh right my mistake. Thanks.

 

[Xspyrit]

the contract makes no sense. He’s the 7th highest paid goalie in the league

He has a 0.914 SV% since entering the league in 2015-16 (makes 6.25)

That's the same SV% as Carey Price since that season. Price makes 10.5
Also the same exact SV% as Jacob Markstrom who just signed at 6.0 (but 6 years). I'm totally fine with paying 0.25 more for 2 years less. Goalies are always one injury away from regressing big time, even more than skaters. It's extremely demanding physically.

Bobrovsky : 0.916 SV% (makes 10.0)
Vasilevsky (best goalie on the planet) : 0.919 SV% (makes 9.5)
Fleury : 0.915 SV% (makes 7.0)
Rask : 0.917 SV% (makes 7.0)
Gibson : 0.919 SV% (makes 6.4)

Matt Murray has proven he can be part of the Elite. Last year made his overall numbers drop significantly, he had 0.917 % prior last season

Started checking advanced stats.

2017-18 to 2019-20 (so the seasons people say Murray was "looking closer to replacement level" lol), among 64 goalies who played at least 2000 minutes (all strengths), Matt Murray :

- Ranked 11th in HD SV%
- Faced the 29th most HD shots against per 60
- Faced the 10th highest rush attempts per 60
- Faced the 22nd shorter average shot distance

Pittsburgh hasn't been a strong defensive team the last few years.