Player Discussion Marner

[Evilhomer]

zero chance he's coming.

There is no reason to believe he would even consider Toronto. Has no connection to the city at all.

 

[sunstersun]

Unfortunately the vast majority of the haters around here are saying:
a) Marner is bad even in the regular season - these guys are suffering and should be ignored
b) Marner is a superstar in the regular season but Nylander crushes him in the playoffs - these people ignore defensive play
c) Marner is going to be too expensive - it's not Marners fault that Nylander is overpaid, move Nylander nothing is impossible

You don't get rid of your superstar best defensive forward because you messed up on Nylander.

A) No one really makes this argument except to argue he's a bit overrated in the regular season as demonstrated by Matthews playing perfectly fine(or better) without the greatest player maker or whatever.

B) is such a soft argument you can't even make it sound better with all the framing in the world. Marner is not a defensive god in the playoffs either with the amount of giveaways and pucks over the net.

C) Nylander has a NMC, we can't force his hand. Marner is the odd man out contract wise.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

You don't get rid of your superstar best defensive forward because you messed up on Nylander.

Actually you have to.
If you were Tre, are you going to put yourself in cap hell forever. Dubas lived that and it failed.

Sadly, especially if you want to keep JT, moving on from Marner is mandatory.

I want to pretend we just need to move on from JT.
But I am *NOT* overpaying Marner.
So he's probably walking, but I think Tre is not going to have the guts to move on from Marner.

C) Nylander has a NMC, we can't force his hand. Marner is the odd man out contract wise.

Essentially this is it.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

If winger defense is so important, why wouldn't we just spend it on a defenseman? 12M+ for an offensive position who scores 30-35G is not enough. You could have two top 4D for that in their prime. Or a centre. Anything other than a winger

 

[666]

What about the last two series? What about those stats. I watched those games. Marner was dogwater.

Then look it up and post the results. The problem will be a very small sample size as these are already a bit low.

Here is the last two seasons. Samples size pretty low. It's even better for Marner. If you want to remove the Tampa series then you're just trying to confirm some stupid agenda.

Player	GP	TOI	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Mitchell Marner	18​	293.3​	2.66​	1.43​	65.00​
Auston Matthews	16​	276.8​	2.38​	1.95​	55.00​
John Tavares	18​	260.5​	2.3​	2.53​	47.62​
William Nylander	15​	244.6​	2.45​	2.94​	45.45​

 

[666]

C) Nylander has a NMC, we can't force his hand. Marner is the odd man out contract wise.

It's been done before. Again you don't blame Marner for Nylander's overpay.
Are you aware that rumours have it that Laf is going to $8x8. Even Nylander isn't overpaid in that case.
Between the cap rising, JT and other contracts expiring and Nylander's possibility to play center, we can definitely afford both of them.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

If winger defense is so important, why wouldn't we just spend it on a defenseman? 12M+ for an offensive position who scores 30-35G is not enough. You could have two top 4D for that in their prime. Or a centre. Anything other than a winger

YES !!!! please.

It's been done before. Again you don't blame Marner for Nylander's overpay.

Tre picked nylander over marner. Signing Nylander was always going to put keep Marner at risk. The transaction was completed.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Swayman and the Bruins were far apart weeks ago too.

I don't care if the media says they are far apart, it means very little.

They also need him to want to come here and outbid every other team for his services.

I think the most likely scenario is he re-signs in Colorado, the next most likely scenario is he signs somewhere else, and then the least likely scenario is he signs here.

It would be gross if the Leafs didn't sign or trade for anyone in hopes that Ratanen became available and then he signed somewhere else.

Why is the least likely scenario that he signs here? This makes no sense at all, not to me anyway. Are we now the most undesirable place to play in the entire league?

The Leafs won't risk letting Marner leave with the hope of signing Rantanen. It would be so far outside the risk profile for this franchise.

I'm not saying let him leave hoping for whatever. I'm saying since playoff Marner is nowhere near as good as regular season Marner, wait until after the playoffs are over before making a decision.

 

[IPS]

Unfortunately the vast majority of the haters around here are saying:
a) Marner is bad even in the regular season - these guys are suffering and should be ignored
b) Marner is a superstar in the regular season but Nylander crushes him in the playoffs - these people ignore defensive play
c) Marner is going to be too expensive - it's not Marners fault that Nylander is overpaid, move Nylander nothing is impossible

You don't get rid of your superstar best defensive forward because you messed up on Nylander.

Superstar best defensive player in NHL history*

 

[IPS]

If winger defense is so important, why wouldn't we just spend it on a defenseman? 12M+ for an offensive position who scores 30-35G is not enough. You could have two top 4D for that in their prime. Or a centre. Anything other than a winger

Because it's not that important, hence why teams aren't breaking the bank on wingers based on their defensive ability.

Defensive systems in today's NHL are incredibly refined. As long as your winger is pressuring the points, positinoing themselves well for the breakout, and back checking well, you don't need your wingers to be some defensive savant. People are pretending like Mitch is prime Zetterberg or Hossa with the way they talk about his defensive game and he's just f***ing not.

 

[francis246]

Actually you have to.
If you were Tre, are you going to put yourself in cap hell forever. Dubas lived that and it failed.

Sadly, especially if you want to keep JT, moving on from Marner is mandatory.

I want to pretend we just need to move on from JT.
But I am *NOT* overpaying Marner.
So he's probably walking, but I think Tre is not going to have the guts to move on from Marner.


Essentially this is it.

Situations are different now. Dubas tried to do this during a flat cap and refused to adjust. The cap is actually increasing. So they could make it work if Marner’s number is reasonable. Would I suggest it? probably not I do think it’s time to change things up. So I wouldn’t even be in favour of letting Marner walk to then go around and sign Rantanen. Don’t think it changes anything, your cap distribution is still way off and you are taking the risk that Rantanens production falls off coming to Toronto.

It’s hard because you can’t know the future so every move is risky.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Superstar best defensive player in NHL history*

Don't forget that he's also well liked in the dressing room. Not sure if that's because of his personality or his mom's brownie recipe but either way, it makes him very valuable or so I've been told.

 

[francis246]

Said no one ever.
Cmon.
they were buddies.
Dubas was more of a Marner Fanboy than ACC1224 et. al.

I think a lot of people are way off this. I don’t believe Dubas or Keefe for that matter were Mitch’s biggest fans. I think Mitch is a Shanahan guy tbh.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Situations are different now. Dubas tried to do this during a flat cap and refused to adjust. The cap is actually increasing. So they could make it work if Marner’s number is reasonable. Would I suggest it? probably not I do think it’s time to change things up. So I wouldn’t even be in favour of letting Marner walk to then go around and sign Rantanen. Don’t think it changes anything, your cap distribution is still way off and you are taking the risk that Rantanens production falls off coming to Toronto.

It’s hard because you can’t know the future so every move is risky.

Yeah imagine if Rantanen's playoff production fell off to Marner levels. You're right, that would be terrible.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

It’s hard because you can’t know the future so every move is risky.

not changing is the riskiest move of all.

 

[notbias]

Why is the least likely scenario that he signs here? This makes no sense at all, not to me anyway. Are we now the most undesirable place to play in the entire league?

Because the Leafs are competing against multiple other teams most likely, and one of them being his current team who has almost a year to negotiate...

Common sense says we are not the most likely landing spot for him, all other suitors combined have a better chance.

And if you want to use some sort of data, just look at how many star players in their prime leave their team, far more stay.

The add in that we are competing against other teams and it becomes less likely.

I don't know how you can possibly come to the conclusion that we'd be a likely landing spot, especially with Colorado in the race.

I'm not saying the Leafs are undesirable, just that the field has an edge over the Leafs.

 

[francis246]

not changing is the riskiest move of all.

No it’s not. Not even close. You at least know what you’re getting. Moving on from him isn’t the hard part. It’s identifying how you will now spend that money. You have to hit. If they don’t, you are screwed. You are not gaining assets or a player by letting him walk. Which means you have to spend that money in UFA or use additional assets to get a player with that cap space from another team.

I think people are so hell bent on change you are not thinking about how this can go terribly wrong for the organization. The depth in UFA is not there. The time to make the move was after MTL. At least then you could have moved Marner for other good assets. Again I’m not saying it’s not impossible but it’s going to be extremely difficult.

 

[Antropovsky]

That’s not even what happened. At least get your facts straight. Marner’s camp was asked by Jonas Siegel if they would be open to a trade after the Florida series. Marner’s camp said Marner would consider a move if asked. I believe Dubas was on the trade Marner train. But ultimately he was never asked.

I can’t recall the year but the organization decided to try and move Nylander before resigning him. They didn’t like the deals they were offered. The organization has never proactively tried to trade Marner and maybe that’s part of the issue at the end of the day.

Ironic you're talking about getting facts straight. Wasn't it you who claimed a relative working for the Leafs told you Nylander wasnt talking to Marner when he said 'quit crying bro' to Marner on the bench? And then you followed that up with a story that didn’t even make sense to the situation, like it supposedly happened after a power play and during a TV break?

Also, Marner didn’t need to approve a trade after the Florida series. The Leafs had until July 1st to move him without needing his approval. From what we know, Shanahan and Treliving told the core four they weren’t going anywhere. So why would Marner’s camp be telling reporters he’d consider a move? Especially when:

1) Marner was visibly pissed when reporters asked if a core four member should be moved after those results.
2) He didn’t have to approve a trade,he could've been traded to any team before July 1.
3) He told reporters that management assured him the core four was staying intact.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

You at least know what you’re getting.

First round exits.

From what we know, Shanahan and Treliving told the core four they weren’t going anywhere.

Thankfully he has to be gone after this year. If Pelley re-ups him, Pelley should be fired.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Unfortunately the vast majority of the haters around here are saying:
a) Marner is bad even in the regular season - these guys are suffering and should be ignored
b) Marner is a superstar in the regular season but Nylander crushes him in the playoffs - these people ignore defensive play
c) Marner is going to be too expensive - it's not Marners fault that Nylander is overpaid, move Nylander nothing is impossible

You don't get rid of your superstar best defensive forward because you messed up on Nylander.

Some odd takes.

Ignoring the fact that 'haters' is an Ad Hominem, you say the "vast majority" say "Marner is bad even in the regular season", but you also say the "vast majority" say "Marner is a superstar in the regular season".

Marner's defensive play in the playoffs has not been stellar and Nylander's has improved, particularly over the last couple of years, so the defensive difference is smaller.

Yes, Nylander is overpaid, but at least partly because Marner was overpaid on his last contract (not Marner's fault, but a fact nevertheless). Yes, Marner will (likely) be too expensive, even if he doesn't want more than Nylander: two $11M wingers isn't ideal. Actually the best argument for keeping Marner at anything more than $10M would be if Nylander transitions to 2C.

"Superstar" and "best defensive forward" are opinions at best and likely exaggerations.

 

[francis246]

Ironic you're talking about getting facts straight. Wasn't it you who claimed a relative working for the Leafs told you Nylander wasnt talking to Marner when he said 'quit crying bro' to Marner on the bench? And then you followed that up with a story that didn’t even make sense to the situation, like it supposedly happened after a power play and during a TV break?

Also, Marner didn’t need to approve a trade after the Florida series. The Leafs had until July 1st to move him without needing his approval. From what we know, Shanahan and Treliving told the core four they weren’t going anywhere. So why would Marner’s camp be telling reporters he’d consider a move? Especially when:

1) Marner was visibly pissed when reporters asked if a core four member should be moved after those results.
2) He didn’t have to approve a trade,he could've been traded to any team before July 1.
3) He told reporters that management assured him the core four was staying intact.

Not a relative. Also if you actually watched the Amazon series it supports everything I was told. The three of them had been arguing about set plays the entire night. Even Nylander himself said it had to do with a set play that didn't work out. And no I said that the initial arguments started during a TV break. They originally tried that set play on a power play earlier in the game and then tried it again when keefe loaded up the lines prior to the captured blow up. There are also now people who have posted videos lip reading what Matthews said and he was yelling at Nylander about Nylander giving him some shitty passes. So I do believe that the information I was told was correct. Nylander was moreso talking to Matthews in that moment (Stop Crying Bro - directed at Matthews, not Marner), but was also speaking in general terms that these guys always complain and bitch about everything (Marner was included in that). Hence why the Matthews audio isn't out. The team was never going to let that Matthews audio be released.

Direct Quote from Siegels article after the playoff series against boston in May. When he says last summer that was after the Florida series right? So what the hell are you talking about?

“ He finished with three points in seven games against the Bruins. He wasn’t the offensive difference-maker the Leafs needed him to be, especially early in the series when Nylander was absent.

He might be just as ready for a change as the Leafs are. He was prepared for the possibility last summer.”

Absent extension talks, and the possibility of a long-term future in Toronto, he might be convinced to accept a trade elsewhere.”

 

[Hellcat]

What is wrong with you people? Obsessed with points regardless of defense. Over and over and over.

Last 3 playoffs 5v5, sample is a bit small but the picture it paints is clear.

Player	GP	TOI	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Mitchell Marner	25​	383.8​	3.13​	1.72​	64.5​
Auston Matthews	23​	381.2​	2.83​	2.05​	58.1​
John Tavares	25​	348.8​	2.06​	2.24​	48.0​
William Nylander	22​	328.0​	2.20​	2.56​	46.2​
Mikko Rantanen	38​	638.8​	3.01​	2.63​	53.3​

Marner beats everyone at GF and GA even Matthews.
Rantanen is even worse than Nylander defensively.

Don't you people watch the games?

..but but what are Mitch's stats games 5 through 7 ... (sarcasm)

 

[Gary Nylund]

Because the Leafs are competing against multiple other teams most likely, and one of them being his current team who has almost a year to negotiate...

Common sense says we are not the most likely landing spot for him, all other suitors combined have a better chance.

And if you want to use some sort of data, just look at how many star players in their prime leave their team, far more stay.

The add in that we are competing against other teams and it becomes less likely.

I don't know how you can possibly come to the conclusion that we'd be a likely landing spot, especially with Colorado in the race.

I'm not saying the Leafs are undesirable, just that the field has an edge over the Leafs.

Even is dogs against the field to sign him, we might still be the first choice for him after COL (which if true, would make us the most likely landing spot for him if he becomes UFA), no need to make it sound like such a long shot that he would want to come here and play with Matthews.

 

[francis246]

Some odd takes.

Ignoring the fact that 'haters' is an Ad Hominem, you say the "vast majority" say "Marner is bad even in the regular season", but you also say the "vast majority" say "Marner is a superstar in the regular season".

Marner's defensive play in the playoffs has not been stellar and Nylander's has improved, particularly over the last couple of years, so the defensive difference is smaller.

Yes, Nylander is overpaid, but at least partly because Marner was overpaid on his last contract (not Marner's fault, but a fact nevertheless). Yes, Marner will (likely) be too expensive, even if he doesn't want more than Nylander: two $11M wingers isn't ideal. Actually the best argument for keeping Marner at anything more than $10M would be if Nylander transitions to 2C.

"Superstar" and "best defensive forward" are opinions at best and likely exaggerations.

we do have to break the cycle of people getting overpaid because of the last contract of a direct comparable on the team. So if for that reason alone I would support walking away from Marner. If it comes out his ask is astronomical, I'd be in full support of walking away. This off-season will be very interesting. Could you see a sign and trade, where Marner gets his 8 year with Toronto to get the extra year of money and then he is traded to his preferred destination after the playoffs?

 

[Hellcat]

A) No one really makes this argument except to argue he's a bit overrated in the regular season as demonstrated by Matthews playing perfectly fine(or better) without the greatest player maker or whatever.

B) is such a soft argument you can't even make it sound better with all the framing in the world. Marner is not a defensive god in the playoffs either with the amount of giveaways and pucks over the net.

C) Nylander has a NMC, we can't force his hand. Marner is the odd man out contract wise.

Same argument can be made that the Leafs actually perform better without Austin in the lineup - Points % with Austin .636 / without .643 , does this mean we should trade Austin? Maple Leafs Record With And Without Auston Matthews | StatMuse

The Leafs have a considerably poorer record without Mitch than with him Maple Leafs Record With And Without Mitch Marner | StatMuse

Mitch has the same three letters as Nylander (NMC) make but for some reason we can force Mitch's hand but we cant force Nylander's? Why would we want to with either player anyway?

Maybe @666 is on to something, more to a player than just points?