Player Discussion Marner

[ZEBROA]

the truth is none of the Core Four have truly showed up when the season was on the line.

Whataboutism...

Some think his money elsewere can make us better overall, some dont.

I think it can make us better , but i would not bet on it. Need to be managed realy carefull in that case. Is he a fantastic player , hell yeah. But in think he could be mentaly stronger.

 

[ACC1224]

OK so Point was picked because he is on Coopers team and he is a C... whooptee doo..... If you are Marner and are picked 20th, who cares. More than likely most players would prefer to spend some R & R on the beach vs play in a meaningless cash cow for the NHL. Honestly who freaking cares?



Word salad .... thanks...

I don't think this is true at all. Players are very excited to represent their country and play in this thing. It's been way too long and many have never had the opportunity.

 

[thewave]

I’m not saying MM deserves to be in the top 6 or whatever. The top 6 thing is irrelevant today it’s more of a marketing thing. They named 5 forwards and one dman. There’s a few dman I would have committed to before point. But I do think Points relationship with Cooper does play a huge factor into it. Coaches will always choose their guys. I coached high level youth sport and then was fortunate enough to coach both the provincial team and youth national team. I went to bat for a few of my players to be on both the provincial and youth national while I was on those coaching staffs. I trusted those players.

We also have anecdotal evidence from the lightning organization that this kind of stuff matters to the players. It mattered so much that St. Louis requested a trade.



Just a horrible take. Not even worth a response.

Top 6 is important. He is seeking to be like a top 2 Winger as far as pay goes.

Reality is even right now. Nylander and Domi at 4 and 5 points respectively matching MMs 5 pts have a +6 vs MM +2.

Mitch is still throwing the puck away to avoid contact. Yes he is getting some points in bunches and looking good. The question again will be is he playoff good or legitimately a top 2 winger asking for I imagine what he feels is a fair 12m+ ask.

This thread really comes down to Leafs fans vs Marner stans. They are two different beasts.

 

[DarkKnight]

Love Marner’s gsme so far this year. Easily the best Pker too, great defensively, smart, quick decisions. Encouraging play on the wall as well, more engaged there, nobody expects dominance, just get dirty. He’s buying into Berube’s approach, and the coach seems to love him, trust him, probably because he isn’t some jaundiced obsessive with nothing else to do but tear the guy down.

Great start, keep it up.

 

[Hellcat]

I don't think this is true at all. Players are very excited to represent their country and play in this thing. It's been way too long and many have never had the opportunity.

It's the All Star break by another name, there is a world of difference in wanting to play for your country in the Olympics and playing for your country in a meaningless NHL All Star gimmic, it's well known that the vast majority of players want the R & R time during the break vs playing in an All Star game.

 

[Hellcat]

What are you, 9 years old? I went to bed ... chief.

You're constantly abrasive, condescending, going off on weird tangents ... I hate to break it to you but that's the opposite of "logical thought process".

LOL... you're asking me if I'm 9 years old? Who is the person who is isolating 3 games each year and making an all encompassing statement about a players value?

You still haven't answered my questions, I suppose if you cant defend your position, abandon it? Priceless.

I'm only abrasive to poorly though out absolute statements that deserve scrutiny, if you can't take the heat Chief....

Yes he is getting some points in bunches and looking good.

Elite stars tend to do that ...

 

[thewave]

LOL... you're asking me if I'm 9 years old? Who is the person who is isolating 3 games each year and making an all encompassing statement about a players value?

You still haven't answered my questions, I suppose if you cant defend your position, abandon it? Priceless.

I'm only abrasive to poorly though out absolute statements that deserve scrutiny, if you can't take the heat Chief....



Elite stars tend to do that ...

That's fine. I want him to be good. I was one of the first here to say he is looking quicker than last season. The thing is I am a Leafs fan and so just like I can say with a straight face that the 11.5m WN got was a overpay, MM even at 11m or any more will also be an overpay and it matters.

Obviously more cap means more depth and depth is winning in the NHL

The pain will come when paying MM to twirl comes at the expense of Knies or other depth that breaks through. Like. Sorry Stolarz, we ain't got that extra million the other guy is offering. MM ate it up and we need to make a team here.

 

[GoonieFace]

Love Marner’s gsme so far this year. Easily the best Pker too, great defensively, smart, quick decisions. Encouraging play on the wall as well, more engaged there, nobody expects dominance, just get dirty. He’s buying into Berube’s approach, and the coach seems to love him, trust him, probably because he isn’t some jaundiced obsessive with nothing else to do but tear the guy down.

Great start, keep it up.

Agreed, he has played very well so far. Definitely looks more willing to fight for those loose pucks. The whole team has bought in so far, let’s hope they keep it up. Fear is a still a great motivator I guess

 

[francis246]

Top 6 is important. He is seeking to be like a top 2 Winger as far as pay goes.

Reality is even right now. Nylander and Domi at 4 and 5 points respectively matching MMs 5 pts have a +6 vs MM +2.

Mitch is still throwing the puck away to avoid contact. Yes he is getting some points in bunches and looking good. The question again will be is he playoff good or legitimately a top 2 winger asking for I imagine what he feels is a fair 12m+ ask.

This thread really comes down to Leafs fans vs Marner stans. They are two different beasts.

No this thread doesn’t come down to that. And if you’re level of thinking is that binary then idk what to tell you.

I like Marner because he is a Toronto Maple Leaf. Not because he is Mitch Marner. The moment Marner is not a leaf I will not care for him as much if at all. It was the same thing for me once Kadri was traded and once JVR left for UFA. I believe this is true for a majority of people.

Additionally no one knows what Marner is seeking right now. This go around things have been quiet. For all we know he might be willing to take 11.5 to stay a leaf. Everything you’ve said is speculative and nothing based on any true knowledge of the negotiation.

 

[ACC1224]

It's the All Star break by another name, there is a world of difference in wanting to play for your country in the Olympics and playing for your country in a meaningless NHL All Star gimmic, it's well known that the vast majority of players want the R & R time during the break vs playing in an All Star game.

This isn't an All Star game, not even close and players will see this as giving themselves an inside track on going to the Olympics.

Love Marner’s gsme so far this year. Easily the best Pker too, great defensively, smart, quick decisions. Encouraging play on the wall as well, more engaged there, nobody expects dominance, just get dirty. He’s buying into Berube’s approach, and the coach seems to love him, trust him, probably because he isn’t some jaundiced obsessive with nothing else to do but tear the guy down.

Great start, keep it up.

If we're being honest he's been the best forward all around to start the season.

 

[thewave]

No this thread doesn’t come down to that. And if you’re level of thinking is that binary then idk what to tell you.

I like Marner because he is a Toronto Maple Leaf. Not because he is Mitch Marner. The moment Marner is not a leaf I will not care for him as much if at all. It was the same thing for me once Kadri was traded and once JVR left for UFA. I believe this is true for a majority of people.

Additionally no one knows what Marner is seeking right now. This go around things have been quiet. For all we know he might be willing to take 11.5 to stay a leaf. Everything you’ve said is speculative and nothing based on any true knowledge of the negotiation.

OK but don't be shocked when Knies or Stolarz has to go because of another stupid overpay. You only get one in this league and we are carrying 3 right now.

WN MM JT all overpays right now.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

He has his flaws, but this is the best he has looked in a few years.

 

[Antropovsky]

But guys, the one year he played with Tavares he scored like 45 goals.

Ignoring that's the one year Tavares was actually elite with the Leafs before a headlong dive into regression.

Meanwhile Matthews did better last year without Marner on his line lmao.

Tavares also had 84 points the year before with thr Islanders, just 4 points less than 2019 with Leafs.

Of course he's going to need to score more playing with Marner.... he certainly wasn't going to teach 80+ points getting assists with Marner lol.like a blogger noted about Tavares, he can pass or shoot and he ls able to adapt that ability around the strengths of his linemates.

Additionally, Tavares was taking less reps vs other teams best defensive players because Matthews line was getting them. Research has proven that quality of competition matter, just not as much as quality if linemates.

so 4 more points playing with Leags vs previous year wirh Islanders, while also facing the oppositions best players less. Not to mention other motivating factors such as playing for his hometown team (playing in front if family and friends) for a team with no captain (trying to win the C of his hometown team and original 6 franchise). Etc

And your correct, his effectiveness with Marnered plummeted the next year according to advanced stats and the eye test.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

He has his flaws, but this is the best he has looked in a few years.

AAV / term ?

It's about money.

I'd sign 9.5 x 8. Mitch won't.

Maybe if we entirely move on from JT, then we could sign him. To me, Marner is the cap casualty.

Does anyone know the WAR (Wins above Replacement) for Marner ?

How many wins / year would be lose by moving on from him ?

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

AAV / term ?

It's about money.

I'd sign 9.5 x 8. Mitch won't.

Maybe if we entirely move on from JT, then we could sign him. To me, Marner is the cap casualty.

Does anyone know the WAR (Wins above Replacement) for Marner ?

How many wins / year would be lose by moving on from him ?

I wouldn't give him a penny more than Nylander (even then, I think that's a slight overpay)

I'm not advocating for keeping him by any means, but he does look better...

 

[thusk]

Tavares also had 84 points the year before with thr Islanders, just 4 points less than 2019 with Leafs.

Of course he's going to need to score more playing with Marner.... he certainly wasn't going to teach 80+ points getting assists with Marner lol.like a blogger noted about Tavares, he can pass or shoot and he ls able to adapt that ability around the strengths of his linemates.

Additionally, Tavares was taking less reps vs other teams best defensive players because Matthews line was getting them. Research has proven that quality of competition matter, just not as much as quality if linemates.

so 4 more points playing with Leags vs previous year wirh Islanders, while also facing the oppositions best players less. Not to mention other motivating factors such as playing for his hometown team (playing in front if family and friends) for a team with no captain (trying to win the C of his hometown team and original 6 franchise). Etc

And your correct, his effectiveness with Marnered plummeted the next year according to advanced stats and the eye test.

1- Matthews wasn't played vs top opposition line ( except maybe some away game leafs didn't had control of it) He started to play those matchup when he played full time with Marner like in 2020-2021...

2- the 1st year with marnerJt had carreer high 33 goal and 27 assist at 5v5. His carreer high before was 19 goal and 48 pts... So kept basically same amount of pass and almost number of goal

 

[sunstersun]

He has his flaws, but this is the best he has looked in a few years.

"Show me the money."

"Show me the postseason."

1- Matthews wasn't played vs top opposition line ( except maybe some away game leafs didn't had control of it) He started to play those matchup when he played full time with Marner like in 2020-2021...

2- the 1st year with marnerJt had carreer high 33 goal and 27 assist at 5v5. His carreer high before was 19 goal and 48 pts... So kept basically same amount of pass and almost number of goal

What were Marner's stats playing with Tavares last year?

 

[thusk]

"Show me the money."

"Show me the postseason."



What were Marner's stats playing with Tavares last year?

Don't have it, just know marner had 13 pts playing with jt at ES. jt had 7 pts alongside marner. Together at 5v5 they had been in for 11 GF vs 6 GA. Pretty incomplete but don't have those data

 

[Antropovsky]

Don't have it, just know marner had 13 pts playing with jt at ES. jt had 7 pts alongside marner. Together at 5v5 they had been in for 11 GF vs 6 GA. Pretty incomplete but don't have those data

With Tavares, 2.4 p/60 in 225 mins 5v5. Would put him about 30th overall in league. Not great for a small winger, bad in the playoffs, amongst the highest paid forwards, on a high scoring gram with alot of offensively talented forwards.

With Matthews 3.0 p/60 in 720 mins 5v5.

 

[sunstersun]

No this thread doesn’t come down to that. And if you’re level of thinking is that binary then idk what to tell you.

I like Marner because he is a Toronto Maple Leaf. Not because he is Mitch Marner. The moment Marner is not a leaf I will not care for him as much if at all. It was the same thing for me once Kadri was traded and once JVR left for UFA. I believe this is true for a majority of people.

Additionally no one knows what Marner is seeking right now. This go around things have been quiet. For all we know he might be willing to take 11.5 to stay a leaf. Everything you’ve said is speculative and nothing based on any true knowledge of the negotiation.

I hope the Leafs don't keep Marner at 11.5.

What a terrible deal in 2018. What a terrible deal in 2024.

At least with Nylander there's upside. Marner has stagnated around 30 goals 90 points since signing his awful contract.

Why does Marner deserve more than Willy? Last two seasons offensively Willy has been better with potential upside. Isn't 40/40 or 40/57 better than 30/60?

This is on top of the fact Nylander is our best postseason performer with notable clutch moments and insane play driving, while Marner is known for pucks over the net and giveaways in the postseason.

Marner in actually is a 9.5 player at best factoring in postseason limitations.

 

[REALTALK81]

I'm in the minority on this. Believe Marner should get what Nylander is getting. One gets more goals, the other is more defensively sound and plays in every situation. I think Tavares contract should be greatly reduced or removed all together for next season which will free up valuable cap space.

 

[sunstersun]

I'm in the minority on this. Believe Marner should get what Nylander is getting. One gets more goals, the other is more defensively sound and plays in every situation. I think Tavares contract should be greatly reduced or removed all together for next season which will free up valuable cap space.

Plays in every situation? Like this?



Or this ?




Show me the top 3 goals of Marner in the postseason that you think are the "play driving" type in clutch situations.

Here's 3 Willy goals.









Marner's goals in the postseason.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No. you gave cherry picked stats. And personal valuations that you could not prove had anything to do with contracts based on your knowledge of history.
You also didn’t show the full picture. If Marner had all kinds of extra 28% 50% more “production”
In all of these areas, how did he end up with less real and prorated goals and 15 more Real and virtually identical points pace.
He has to be really lacking in other areas then “opportunity” to end up behind in the real world in goals

It's wild that you're talking about "cherry picked stats" when I'm both using (12 in my original comparison alone) and trying to get you to consider a wider range of statistics, and you're refusing to consider anything that isn't the couple stats you arbitrarily picked out. It's wild that you're talking about the "big picture", when I've asked you to look at context, and the bigger picture of contracts and comparables and how Marner slots in, while you demand that we use only one specific comparable in one specific way and ban any context that isn't game number. It's wild that you're talking about proving and supporting things, when I am literally the only one who has done that, and all you do is ignore or dismiss it.

You want the full picture? Sure. Let's break down their entire production so you can see. At time of signing:

Marner.....: 241 GP, 133 points at 5v5, 11 points at 6v5/3v3, ..8 EN points, 65 points at 5v4, 4 points at 5v3, 3 PK points
Rantanen: 239 GP, 108 points at 5v5, 11 points at 6v5/3v3, 12 EN points, 70 points at 5v4, 8 points at 5v3, 0 PK points

And for goals:

Marner.....: 241 GP, 45 goals at 5v5, 2 goals at 6v5/3v3, 4 EN goals, 14 goals at 5v4, 1 goals at 5v3, 1 PK goals
Rantanen: 239 GP, 40 goals at 5v5, 2 goals at 6v5/3v3, 6 EN goals, 29 goals at 5v4, 3 goals at 5v3, 0 PK goals

So how did Rantanen overcome Marner being better at everything to shrink the significant production gap between them and pull ahead in goals?
As we can see, it's exclusively putting pucks into an empty net, and the PP.

Is it because he is better at those things? Nope! He just benefitted from being on the team that got the most PP opportunities in the league (instead of the 27th) and being gifted a lot of additional time in really high scoring game states where time has an insanely high correlation with raw production! And in the case of goals, being the trigger man on the PP, instead of the set up man. It's literally all opportunity that has nothing to do with him, masking his relative deficiencies in ability, performance, and production level.

Double the 5v3 production? You guessed it! Just over double the 5v3 ice time!
Couldn't even keep up at 5v4. Had 39% more 5v4 time, and yet only manages 8% more raw production.
And you think that works in their favour?

While Marner was off using his minutes to help his team on the PK, Rantanen was off getting bonus points in the highest scoring game states, and you expect people to believe that GMs and agents are ignoring stuff like that in negotiations? Come on now. People aren't fools. Know what's hilarious? Marner even had a better penalty differential than Rantanen!

 

[Gary Nylund]

LOL... you're asking me if I'm 9 years old? Who is the person who is isolating 3 games each year and making an all encompassing statement about a players value?

You still haven't answered my questions, I suppose if you cant defend your position, abandon it? Priceless.

I'm only abrasive to poorly though out absolute statements that deserve scrutiny, if you can't take the heat Chief....

1)
I go to bed, wake up to find you mocking me for "scurrying away", yes that sounds like the kind of obnoxious comment that's worthy of ridicule. I had to go to the hospital this morning and got back a little while ago, are you going to mock for me that as well?

2)
I have made no "all encompassing statements" about Marner or anyone else. I always look at the big picture which is more that just "3 games each year". You have repeated this nonsense a number of times.

I labelled your original post nonsense, because that's what it was. My position is the same as it's been for some time now, Marner's a fine player for about 86 games a year, then he's mediocre at best. Plus he seems to be trending down, considering he was pretty bad the last two playoff series we played, both of which we lost. Based on the big picture, I don't think Marner's worth 11 million, maybe 9 or so and that's generous considering the premium I place on the playoffs. If I evaluated him based on only "those 3 games" (though season before last it was 8 games, not 3), then I'd say he's worth a lot less than that but that's not what I do, I look at all of it, the good, the bad and the ugly and I say he's worth maybe 9M.

You want "answers" for your original nonsensical post, fine. Here are my answers.

Yes conflate, do you need me to define that word for you?

No, I don't, and it's this kind of pointless insult that does nothing but pollute this forum and make you look like a bit of a ... I won't say it.

So we are back to this stupidity where the Low Information Fan Club, cherry picks 3 games to gauge a players value?

Some BS, and more insults.

If you only win the last three games of a playoff series can you win the series?

This is a dumb question.

Can I pick McDavid's worse 3 playoff games last year and say he is a choker, is that how we play the game?

This is another dumb question.

I think the rules are we are supposed to gauge Marner on his worse 3 games and gauge every other player on the totality of their career?

What rules? This is another dumb question.

Blah blah blah regular season? Can you make the playoffs if you are the 9th seeded club?

And yet another dumb question.

When you dismiss all the things that make Marner an elite player and only focus on 3 his worse games each year sure he's pretty shitty, paint whatever grossly partial picture you want cupcake.

I always look at the big picture, and have always acknowledged what a fine player he is most of the times. So once again, more lies and insults from you.

Cherry pick, gaslight, be ignorantly illogically stubborn - do what every your little heart desires, it makes you no less wrong ... Chief.

And more insults.

As I said earlier, I'm interested in honest discussion and exchanging thoughts and ideas. You seem to prefer trading insults so I suggest you either start behaving better or stop bothering me.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Yes, teams have limited leverage when it comes to their superstars.
No, there is no evidence that contracts are constrained or inflated by internal contracts, let alone unrelated ones.
We never had any contracts to even attempt to constrain anything with anyway. They were better than everybody else. They didn't care.

Who to believe, you or his agent?

Ferris told First Up that Marner looked to Maple Leafs centres Auston Matthews and John Tavares as comparable contracts while he negotiated, rather than comparing himself to players around the league.

"Absolutely. That is one of the factors that you bring into it, that there is a comparison of players on his team, his teammates," Ferris said.