Player Discussion Marner

[Gary Nylund]

According to the new technology the NHL uses, Domi’s shot is 10% weaker than Marner’s. Maybe that’s why he doesn’t shoot.

https://theleafsnation.com/news/nhl-edge-toronto-maple-leafs-fastest-skaters-hardest-

Hardest shot (in MPH)​

		Shot Speed
1	Matthews	91.43
2	Nylander	89.81
3	Liljegren	85.02
4	Rielly	84.88
5	Bertuzzi	84.73
6	Giordano	82.51
7	McCabe	81.83
8	Minten	81.39
9	Knies	81.21
10	Klingberg	80.77
11	Gregor	80.24
12	Jarnkrok	80.23
13	Tavares	79.11
14	Marner	77.87
15	Brodie	75.41
16	Holmberg	72.69
17	Domi	70.59
18	Reaves	69.20
19	Kampf	61.21

I doubt Domi did this sort of analysis/research and decided to shoot less. There's also more to shot quality than speed.

In any case, one shot in 3 games is clearly too low, the coach said he wants him to shoot more so I imagine he'll do just that. He once scored 28 goals, the season before last he scored 20, I think Marner and Domi both can shoot well enough to score more than they did last season.

 

[IPS]

I didnt realize Point was already chosen, while Marner hasnt been. Pretty telling.

I remember the same about certain board members. The list of Players that Marner was easily better than was certainly long, and included, Barkov, Aho, Rantanen, Point, Tkatchuk and Eichel.

I remember some had quite a cow when Marchand was picked as one of the first six as well. Old boy club, favoritism reasons, chemistry reasons, etc... But just completely unfathomable that they may just view him as a better player.

 

[Legion34]

So Heatley is a "top goalscorer" because one season, he got the 6th most goals - the 110th highest goal total this century.
But Marner is not a "top playmaker" despite one season, getting the 3rd most primary assists - the 10th highest primary assist total this century?

And thus, because you just randomly decided against all evidence that goals are uniquely special, it is impossible to compare Marner to the player who is closest to him in P/GP and has a really comparable contract that breaks down your whole argument? Wow, how convenient for you! Oh, we can't look at any of those other players that hurt your argument either? Because... you randomly decided so? Convenient again! Oh, we can only look at specifically Rantanen? That seems kind of odd, but at least we can dig deep and really analyze them and surrounding context to understand their quality and value, right? Oh, we're only allowed to look at the specific stat that you say we can? Hmm...

Sounds a bit like you're starting to realize how easily the house of cards you're selling falls apart.

But at least you're consistent, right? Only real stats! Real stats only! Never ever account for the impact of any opportunity discrepancies! Never!
Oh, what's that? #4 on your list? "Clearly pro rating counts".
Ah, clearly! Clearly! Clearly we should account for differences in opportunity differences outside of a player's control, right?
If McDavid doesn't have an opportunity to play those games, his raw point total isn't going to properly represent his impact when he's there, compared to those who get to play 82.
That's important because the correlation because games and raw production is really high. So clearly, if there were a different player - let's call them Marner - that had a opportunity discrepancy outside of his control, that also had an insanely high correlation with raw production, then clearly we should account for it, right? To be consistent.
You can't dismiss one and use the other. They're the same thing.

You didn't give a direct comparable. You gave a lesser comparable, and are now trying to argue that we should ignore all critical information and pretend that the frequentness of a team's special teams time somehow makes him equal, not how they actually perform. Marner started putting up more points during his second season when he stopped being jerked around, and put up one of the best pre-signing seasons in post-ELC history when he started being treated like the star he'd always been, and put in situations more similar to his peers. That doesn't help your argument. And it's pretty ridiculous that you're attempting to put Marner down for his linemates in one season, when he drove and was the best player on every line he was on, while the likes of Rantanen always played second fiddle and fed off superior players throughout their entire ELC.

Marner was one of the best young players of this century. He absolutely earned what he got. It was consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts, and he continues to earn it.

It’s just easier to admit you are wrong

1.) no one said Marner wasn’t a great playmaker. You have provided NO evidence that primary assists lead to higher contracts.
2.) you are trying to compare 15 years and CBAs apart to Marner with Hartley and Nash who got paid based on goals and ignoring a direct comparable. Miko

3.) you are making up an “opportunity discrepancy” which is just odd. Raw and total production matters more. But yes in case of injury etc it is taken into account.

Points per game is recognized and openly talked about and used (on a secondary level) in websites and analysis. “Opportunity descrepancy” is not quantifiable and an excuse.

4.) even in marners best season. He still had less goals and similar points.

you have still not provided a single instance where 2 compare able stats players at the same time has an 18% descrepancy in salary based on “opportunities” or something.

This is pretty unhinged. It’s all simple. Marners production did not warrant 18%’more than rantanen.

Even taking out Marners 8 game advantage

Marner scored 26 goals and 94 pts
Miko R. Scored 31 goals and 87 pts

In marners star year when he finally got to be what he was supposed to be. They were close in points.

You can believe Marner is better. You can believe he was held down. You cannot prove Marner had any tangible or quantifiable reason to get 18% more

 

[thewave]

According to the new technology the NHL uses, Domi’s shot is 10% weaker than Marner’s. Maybe that’s why he doesn’t shoot.

https://theleafsnation.com/news/nhl-edge-toronto-maple-leafs-fastest-skaters-hardest-

Hardest shot (in MPH)​

		Shot Speed
1	Matthews	91.43
2	Nylander	89.81
3	Liljegren	85.02
4	Rielly	84.88
5	Bertuzzi	84.73
6	Giordano	82.51
7	McCabe	81.83
8	Minten	81.39
9	Knies	81.21
10	Klingberg	80.77
11	Gregor	80.24
12	Jarnkrok	80.23
13	Tavares	79.11
14	Marner	77.87
15	Brodie	75.41
16	Holmberg	72.69
17	Domi	70.59
18	Reaves	69.20
19	Kampf	61.21

So we have 2 legit shooters with a shot on the team. It makes sense

 

[notDatsyuk]

He signed at 7 with a 22 goal 61 pts season high.
vs
marner 26 goal 94 pts...

Nylander was closer of what we could expect of knies this season than Marner when he resigned

Which wasn't the point - they didn't sign him right away.

 

[Antropovsky]

They are both great players, playing on great teams it’s not surprising they’ve won rounds and cups.
I think most assume he was added to Team Canada because of Cooper.

Cooper? You mean the same Cooper that Marner fans always cite to argue he's a top forward, based on some positive interview comments by Cooper? Funny how those comments didn’t translate into action, considering Marner didn’t even make the first cut for Cooper’s team. Lol.

 

[notDatsyuk]

It’s just easier to admit you are wrong

1.) no one said Marner wasn’t a great playmaker. You have provided NO evidence that primary assists lead to higher contracts.
2.) you are trying to compare 15 years and CBAs apart to Marner with Hartley and Nash who got paid based on goals and ignoring a direct comparable. Miko

3.) you are making up an “opportunity discrepancy” which is just odd. Raw and total production matters more. But yes in case of injury etc it is taken into account.

Points per game is recognized and openly talked about and used (on a secondary level) in websites and analysis. “Opportunity descrepancy” is not quantifiable and an excuse.

4.) even in marners best season. He still had less goals and similar points.

you have still not provided a single instance where 2 compare able stats players at the same time has an 18% descrepancy in salary based on “opportunities” or something.

This is pretty unhinged. It’s all simple. Marners production did not warrant 18%’more than rantanen.

Even taking out Marners 8 game advantage

Marner scored 26 goals and 94 pts
Miko R. Scored 31 goals and 87 pts

In marners star year when he finally got to be what he was supposed to be. They were close in points.

You can believe Marner is better. You can believe he was held down. You cannot prove Marner had any tangible or quantifiable reason to get 18% more

Since he won't do it, I'll offer you the one tangible reason Marner got 18% more.

Dubas.

 

[Hellcat]

Good player, but not worth his cap hit - no GM ever.
Good player, wish he didn't go AWOL after game 86 - no GM ever.

This is typical from low information fans, AWOL no, middling yes, he is a PPG player over the last 3 playoffs. Perhaps an opportunity for the LIFC, dont conflate the words elite and middling.

Not worth his cap hit? He has the 2nd most regular season points out of any player drafted his draft year or later. The only player who has more, Connor McDavid.

Fortunately for us, our GM knows more about hockey than the low information fan club.

Cooper? You mean the same Cooper that Marner fans always cite to argue he's a top forward, based on some positive interview comments by Cooper? Funny how those comments didn’t translate into action, considering Marner didn’t even make the first cut for Cooper’s team. Lol.

And? What benefit is it to make the first cut? If he is the last player picked, is he still on the team?

 

[Hellcat]

According to the new technology the NHL uses, Domi’s shot is 10% weaker than Marner’s. Maybe that’s why he doesn’t shoot.

https://theleafsnation.com/news/nhl-edge-toronto-maple-leafs-fastest-skaters-hardest-

Hardest shot (in MPH)​

		Shot Speed
1	Matthews	91.43
2	Nylander	89.81
3	Liljegren	85.02
4	Rielly	84.88
5	Bertuzzi	84.73
6	Giordano	82.51
7	McCabe	81.83
8	Minten	81.39
9	Knies	81.21
10	Klingberg	80.77
11	Gregor	80.24
12	Jarnkrok	80.23
13	Tavares	79.11
14	Marner	77.87
15	Brodie	75.41
16	Holmberg	72.69
17	Domi	70.59
18	Reaves	69.20
19	Kampf	61.21

Hard shots dont necessarily correlate to an elite goals scorer, the guy who has the record for the hardest shot never exceeded 28 goals. You want a heavy shot and/or accurate shot.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You cannot prove Marner had any tangible or quantifiable reason to get 18% more

I did at the beginning of this conversation, in pretty simple terms:

Marner produced 7% better in overall production (10% no EN).
Marner produced 11% better in overall primary production (15% no EN).
Marner produced 28% better at 5v5.
Marner produced 46% better at 5v5 primary production.
Marner produced 24% better on the PP.
Marner produced 13% better on the PP in primary production.
Marner also brought PK impacts, while Rantanen didn't.
You're making a distinction on goals that historically doesn't exist, and the only reason Rantanen even has more goals is because he was set up as the triggerman on Mackinnon's PP, while Marner was the playmaker of his. Marner scored goals better than Rantanen in every other game state.
A 17.8% bigger contract is certainly reasonable.

If you want to dismiss playmakers, and ignore all critical information, contract history, comparables, and context to pretend that Marner was overpaid and player contracts are determined by the PP time of teams instead of how the players perform, that's your choice. It's clear that you're not listening and I can't help you. I hope other people in this thread gained a better understanding of why his contract is what it is, and that you'll reflect on some of this information in time.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This is typical from low information fans, AWOL no, middling yes, he is a PPG player over the last 3 playoffs. Perhaps an opportunity for the LIFC, dont conflate the words elite and middling.

Not worth his cap hit? He has the 2nd most regular season points out of any player drafted his draft year or later. The only player who has more, Connor McDavid.

Fortunately for us, our GM knows more about hockey than the low information fan club.

dont conflate the words elite and middling - LMAO sure chief, whatever you way.

Speaking of words, what I said was that he goes AWOL after 86 games chief. All these words from you and you didn't even address that point. Might want to read posts more carefully before posting nonsense.

Regular season blah blah blah, yes Marner's very good in the regular season, I think everyone agrees on that. Thanks for letting everyone know you're with the majority on this one.

 

[Legion34]

I did at the beginning of this conversation, in pretty simple terms:

If you want to dismiss playmakers, and ignore all critical information, contract history, comparables, and context to pretend that Marner was overpaid and player contracts are determined by the PP time of teams instead of how the players perform, that's your choice. It's clear that you're not listening and I can't help you. I hope other people in this thread gained a better understanding of why his contract is what it is, and that you'll reflect on some of this information in time.

You cannot provide a single peice of historical evidence that those micro stats you personally hold as important have any bearing on contract valuation.

You are parsing out cherry picked stats that did not lead to overall actual production

and saying it leads to higher pay. You have no proof. You can believe he was more impressive or more important or better.

You can’t prove that your preferences have anything to do with contracts

 

[Hellcat]

okay.

The fact that Point and Barkov won rounds and Cups ain’t facts anymore?
The fact that Point is chosen to represent Canada along with Mack, Sid, Makar, Marchand and McD as the first 6 players over MM and the other Canadians are not facts?

Both facts showed Point and Barkov are better player than MM.

But you do you

Point and Barkov won more rounds than Nylander and Matthews too, so Point and Barkov are better than Nylander and Matthews? While we are at it lets follow your logic, Lorentz has won more rounds and cups than Matthews, Marner and Nylander, so Lorentz is better than, Matthews, Marner and Nylander.

So you think where people are picked indicates who is a better player? Michael Henrich was picked 158 spots before Pavel Datsyuk, so based on your indisputable logic, Michael Henirch is better than Pavel. Where a player is drafted is a stupid way to gauge his value to a team, especially in a Country on Country best on best. These kind of drafts, politics as much as what you need, come into play. Afterall you are only drafting against yourself, it's not like if you dont pick a player, he will be picked by another country... picked 1st or 20th it does not matter.

But you do you, no matter how shakey your premise is.

 

[Gabriel426]

Not down playing anything but it’s not unreasonable to think when deciding on the last player to name Cooper took his own player.

You are building your own narrative.

Team Canada will send more than 6 players to 4 Nations.

Point and any other Cooper fav can be selected afterwards.

You can’t possibly believe what you just wrote in that Point is picked over all the other Canadian players due to playing for Cooper.

 

[Hellcat]

dont conflate the words elite and middling - LMAO sure chief, whatever you way.

Speaking of words, what I said was that he goes AWOL after 86 games chief. All these words from you and you didn't even address that point. Might want to read posts more carefully before posting nonsense.

Regular season blah blah blah, yes Marner's very good in the regular season, I think everyone agrees on that. Thanks for letting everyone know you're with the majority on this one.

Yes conflate, do you need me to define that word for you?

So we are back to this stupidity where the Low Information Fan Club, cherry picks 3 games to gauge a players value? If you only win the last three games of a playoff series can you win the series? Can I pick McDavid's worse 3 playoff games last year and say he is a choker, is that how we play the game? I think the rules are we are supposed to gauge Marner on his worse 3 games and gauge every other player on the totality of their career?

Blah blah blah regular season? Can you make the playoffs if you are the 9th seeded club?

When you dismiss all the things that make Marner an elite player and only focus on 3 his worse games each year sure he's pretty shitty, paint whatever grossly partial picture you want cupcake. Cherry pick, gaslight, be ignorantly illogically stubborn - do what every your little heart desires, it makes you no less wrong ... Chief.

 

[thusk]

Which wasn't the point - they didn't sign him right away.

dud they realli signed nylanderat a lower salary for this reason? not sure

 

[Hellcat]

You are building your own narrative.

Team Canada will send more than 6 players to 4 Nations.

Point and any other Cooper fav can be selected afterwards.

You can’t possibly believe what you just wrote in that Point is picked over all the other Canadian players due to playing for Cooper.

He can pick Point 1st or 20th, in the end Point is going to be on the team, just like Marner is going to be on the team. If Point is not picked in the first group after winning multiple cups with Cooper, it would be a sign of disrespect, so as a coach you want to give players on your team the warm and fuzzies. It's a small gesture that goes a long way in the locker room. Point is the best Canadian playing on TB, of course he is going to pick Point in the first group.

Do you really think Point is a better player than Beddard, Stamkos, etc. ?

 

[ACC1224]

You are building your own narrative.

Team Canada will send more than 6 players to 4 Nations.

Point and any other Cooper fav can be selected afterwards.

You can’t possibly believe what you just wrote in that Point is picked over all the other Canadian players due to playing for Cooper.

You are building your own narrative.

Team Canada will send more than 6 players to 4 Nations.

Point and any other Cooper fav can be selected afterwards.

You can’t possibly believe what you just wrote in that Point is picked over all the other Canadian players due to playing for Cooper.

Maybe you’ve never been part of a team but all things equal a coach will always choose his own player over another teams player.
I’m sure he knows it’s important to Point.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You have no proof.

I gave you plenty. You chose to ignore everything that wasn't your specific stat and your specific comparable and your specific preferences, while providing nothing to justify your positions. There is clearly nothing to be gained from further discussion.

 

[thewave]

I gave you plenty. You chose to ignore everything that wasn't your specific stat and your specific comparable and your specific preferences, while providing nothing to justify your positions. There is clearly nothing to be gained from further discussion.

I haven't seen you give any. Stop lying. Show the proof

 

[Legion34]

I gave you plenty. You chose to ignore everything that wasn't your specific stat and your specific comparable and your specific preferences, while providing nothing to justify your positions. There is clearly nothing to be gained from further discussion.

No. you gave cherry picked stats. And personal valuations that you could not prove had anything to do with contracts based on your knowledge of history.

You also didn’t show the full picture. If Marner had all kinds of extra 28% 50% more “production”
In all of these areas, how did he end up with less real and prorated goals and 15 more
Real and virtually identical points pace.

He has to be really lacking in other areas then “opportunity” to end up behind in the real world in goals

 

[notDatsyuk]

Maybe you’ve never been part of a team but all things equal a coach will always choose his own player over another teams player.
I’m sure he knows it’s important to Point.

The corollary to that is that a coach picking his own player over another does not necessarily mean all things are equal.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes conflate, do you need me to define that word for you?

So we are back to this stupidity where the Low Information Fan Club, cherry picks 3 games to gauge a players value? If you only win the last three games of a playoff series can you win the series? Can I pick McDavid's worse 3 playoff games last year and say he is a choker, is that how we play the game? I think the rules are we are supposed to gauge Marner on his worse 3 games and gauge every other player on the totality of their career?

Blah blah blah regular season? Can you make the playoffs if you are the 9th seeded club?

When you dismiss all the things that make Marner an elite player and only focus on 3 his worse games each year sure he's pretty shitty, paint whatever grossly partial picture you want cupcake. Cherry pick, gaslight, be ignorantly illogically stubborn - do what every your little heart desires, it makes you no less wrong ... Chief.

LOL what a bunch of nonsense.