Player Discussion Marner

[notDatsyuk]

What are the real leverage team had with superstar, sit them until deadline to sign, taking a risk that can hurt you and maybe making you make you miss the playoff... They did with Nylander and did they really worked?!?!

The only leverage was to compare with player in the team...

They did with Nylander and got him to sign for 6.9.
They didn't with Marner and he signed for 10.9.

It certainly looks like it worked!

 

[sunstersun]

It really won't be much different. Same brain dead comments all day every day.

Funny how it's easy to claim now it's the same brain dead comments yet during the Boston series you may as well been a ghost talking about Marner lmao.

That's when there were "Fresh" comments about Marner based on facts and evidence.

It must be so much easier to mudslug when time passes.

Too bad Marner has too long of a dogshit trackrecord in the playoffs for this comment to phase anyone.

 

[Hellcat]

Awesome player we are lucky to have him - The Tree

 

[Gary Nylund]

Awesome player we are lucky to have him - The Tree

Good player, but not worth his cap hit - no GM ever.
Good player, wish he didn't go AWOL after game 86 - no GM ever.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Awesome player we are lucky to have him - The Tree

Pumping his trade value!

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Less Filling!

Tastes Great!

 

[Gary Nylund]

Miller Lite's nothing special IMO but those commercials were great!

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Miller Lite's nothing special IMO but those commercials were great!

Agree 2/2.

 

[Gabriel426]

Why would I think they are overrated? All were paid much less than Marner on their post ELC contracts. 2/3 play the harder and more valuable center position. All have majorly outproduced Marner in playoffs.

Point will have made 50 million in the past 6 years, while Marner made 65 million. That is 30% less than Marner over the same 6 years.

Point actually outproduced Marner in 2019 (their contract years) too. Point had 92 points and paced 96 while Marner had 94.

Point of course has blown Marner out of the water in the playoffs. Weve been fortunate to see Tampa in the playoffs and ive always been impressed with Points compete level. While Marners compete has been bad.

Point is also faster or quicker and play with more grit.

It is a reason why Point is one of the players already in Team Canada.

Still remembered a few years back when I said Barkov and Point are better players than MM and were mocked at by some that MM is much better and I don’t know talents. Then in just a few years, both of them won rounds and Cups plus one of them were picked ahead of MM to represent Canada by a group of people who I believe have more hockey knowledge than anyone on this board.

 

[Legion34]

They didn't. That's been shown to you multiple times. Evidence of teams considering context is all around us. That's why, for example, we tend to see inflationary impacts on contracts in situations where players are driving their own levels of production in difficult situations (ex. Eichel, Nash, etc.) and deflationary impacts on contracts in situations where players are benefitting from a superior player (ex. Point, Backstrom, etc.).

We also see teams consider the impact of opportunity discrepancies outside of a player's control on raw points all the time. That's why McDavid wasn't counted as just a ~50 point player in his first year, or Heatley as a ~25 point player in his 3rd. That's why Eichel and Nash weren't counted as just ~55 point players when they signed. That's why everybody doesn't have their contracts plummet after shortened seasons. Etc. That's why you're boosting Rantanen's numbers up, in this very discussion, as you refuse to make the same considerations for Marner.

You're making a lot of demands for the most obscure direct comparables and examples of unprecedented situations, because you know that's not what this is about. It takes understanding production metrics, how they are formed, and what they mean. It takes understanding the correlations and driving factors and considerations behind contracts. It takes having an understanding of the history of contracts and where players belong. Marner is right in the cap hit percentage range and ranking range that he belongs.

You want to ignore the elephant in the room, and pretend that the only thing that matters is points.

Marner: 224 points, 10.9m x 6 years
Crosby: 222 points, 14.1m x 5 years

Oh, wait! Not like that! It's actually all about points per game! That's all that matters!

Marner: 0.93 P/GP, 10.9m x 6 years
Nash: 0.62 P/GP, 11.3m x 5 years

Oh, no, no, no! Not like that either! Pretend you didn't see that! It's actually goals! They're super dee duper special because I said so. It's all that matters!

Marner: 67 goals, 10.9m x 6 years
Eichel: 48, 10.9m x 8 years

No wait! Forget that! Goals per game! Final change! That's all that matters!

Matthews: 0.53 G/GP, 11.6m x 5 years
McDavid: 0.36 G/GP, 13.6m x 8 years

You're just picking and choosing whatever suits your argument in the moment, but there's no actual evidence or consistency behind it. Rantanen wasn't even the closest statistically to Marner. If anything, he's closer to an example of compensation being misaligned from raw statistical production because it became disconnected from their impacts. By P/GP, I believe the closest would be Heatley, with a 0.02 difference, and pretty comparable contracts (9.4m x 3 years vs. 10.9m x 6 years).

I showed you a direct comparable. Rantanen. You made up a bunch of irrelevant stats about different areas of the game that somehow make him better. Except in reality. He wasn’t.
“This goalie was better 55/60 minutes and impacted the game for longer…. But they had the exact same stats”. It’s just silly.

I have no idea what any of these comparables are.

1.) point was a bridge.
2.) Nash got paid because he won the rocket. GOALS matter most. Like I said
3.) heatley was top goal scorer.
4.) as I said players raw totals count most over contract. But if a player gets injured and is going up. Clearly pro rating counts

Marner showed inflationary stats going from 60 pts to 90 pts when paired with a 2 time hart finalist center. That’s entirely against your point.

Again. Marner had no where near the goals/resume of those players.
Marner showed the highest inflation when he got JT

You are just proving that goals matter more.

There is one comparable in that list.
Rantanen. You cant show anything close to him.

Comparing rocket/hart winners to Marner and rantanen is embarrassing.

 

[ACC1224]

Point is also faster or quicker and play with more grit.

It is a reason why Point is one of the players already in Team Canada.

Still remembered a few years back when I said Barkov and Point are better players than MM and were mocked at by some that MM is much better and I don’t know talents. Then in just a few years, both of them won rounds and Cups plus one of them were picked ahead of MM to represent Canada by a group of people who I believe have more hockey knowledge than anyone on this board.

Strange flex.
You're welcome to your opinion but there is nothing proving your opinion correct.

 

[DarkKnight]

He isn't getting traded lol. Berube is spitting facts.

Signed by Christmas is my bet.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Strange flex.
You're welcome to your opinion but there is nothing proving your opinion correct.

Strange comment - nobody's opinion can be proven correct, that's why they're called opinions, as opposed to facts.

The observant student will notice however, that he did provide several facts which seem to support his opinion, unless you think cups and being picked to represent Canada aren't worth anything?

 

[Gabriel426]

Strange flex.
You're welcome to your opinion but there is nothing proving your opinion correct.

okay.

The fact that Point and Barkov won rounds and Cups ain’t facts anymore?
The fact that Point is chosen to represent Canada along with Mack, Sid, Makar, Marchand and McD as the first 6 players over MM and the other Canadians are not facts?

Both facts showed Point and Barkov are better player than MM.

But you do you

 

[Antropovsky]

Point is also faster or quicker and play with more grit.

It is a reason why Point is one of the players already in Team Canada.

Still remembered a few years back when I said Barkov and Point are better players than MM and were mocked at by some that MM is much better and I don’t know talents. Then in just a few years, both of them won rounds and Cups plus one of them were picked ahead of MM to represent Canada by a group of people who I believe have more hockey knowledge than anyone on this board.

I didnt realize Point was already chosen, while Marner hasnt been. Pretty telling.

I remember the same about certain board members. The list of Players that Marner was easily better than was certainly long, and included, Barkov, Aho, Rantanen, Point, Tkatchuk and Eichel.

 

[ACC1224]

okay.

The fact that Point and Barkov won rounds and Cups ain’t facts anymore?
The fact that Point is chosen to represent Canada along with Mack, Sid, Makar, Marchand and McD as the first 6 players over MM and the other Canadians are not facts?

Both facts showed Point and Barkov are better player than MM.

But you do you

They are both great players, playing on great teams it’s not surprising they’ve won rounds and cups.
I think most assume he was added to Team Canada because of Cooper.

 

[arso40]

They are both great players, playing on great teams it’s not surprising they’ve won rounds and cups.
I think most assume he was added to Team Canada because of Cooper.

Maybe maybe not ,there similar in size and play point just the better goal scorer and the more proven player on the biggest stage

 

[ACC1224]

Maybe maybe not ,there similar in size and play point just the better goal scorer and the more proven player on the biggest stage

Yep he’s turned into a great player, better than the experts thought he would.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I showed you a direct comparable. Rantanen. You made up a bunch of irrelevant stats about different areas of the game that somehow make him better. Except in reality. He wasn’t.
“This goalie was better 55/60 minutes and impacted the game for longer…. But they had the exact same stats”. It’s just silly.
I have no idea what any of these comparables are.
1.) point was a bridge.
2.) Nash got paid because he won the rocket. GOALS matter most. Like I said
3.) heatley was top goal scorer.
4.) as I said players raw totals count most over contract. But if a player gets injured and is going up. Clearly pro rating counts
Marner showed inflationary stats going from 60 pts to 90 pts when paired with a 2 time hart finalist center. That’s entirely against your point.
Again. Marner had no where near the goals/resume of those players.

So Heatley is a "top goalscorer" because one season, he got the 6th most goals - the 110th highest goal total this century.
But Marner is not a "top playmaker" despite one season, getting the 3rd most primary assists - the 10th highest primary assist total this century?

And thus, because you just randomly decided against all evidence that goals are uniquely special, it is impossible to compare Marner to the player who is closest to him in P/GP and has a really comparable contract that breaks down your whole argument? Wow, how convenient for you! Oh, we can't look at any of those other players that hurt your argument either? Because... you randomly decided so? Convenient again! Oh, we can only look at specifically Rantanen? That seems kind of odd, but at least we can dig deep and really analyze them and surrounding context to understand their quality and value, right? Oh, we're only allowed to look at the specific stat that you say we can? Hmm...

Sounds a bit like you're starting to realize how easily the house of cards you're selling falls apart.

But at least you're consistent, right? Only real stats! Real stats only! Never ever account for the impact of any opportunity discrepancies! Never!
Oh, what's that? #4 on your list? "Clearly pro rating counts".
Ah, clearly! Clearly! Clearly we should account for differences in opportunity differences outside of a player's control, right?
If McDavid doesn't have an opportunity to play those games, his raw point total isn't going to properly represent his impact when he's there, compared to those who get to play 82.
That's important because the correlation because games and raw production is really high. So clearly, if there were a different player - let's call them Marner - that had a opportunity discrepancy outside of his control, that also had an insanely high correlation with raw production, then clearly we should account for it, right? To be consistent.
You can't dismiss one and use the other. They're the same thing.

You didn't give a direct comparable. You gave a lesser comparable, and are now trying to argue that we should ignore all critical information and pretend that the frequentness of a team's special teams time somehow makes him equal, not how they actually perform. Marner started putting up more points during his second season when he stopped being jerked around, and put up one of the best pre-signing seasons in post-ELC history when he started being treated like the star he'd always been, and put in situations more similar to his peers. That doesn't help your argument. And it's pretty ridiculous that you're attempting to put Marner down for his linemates in one season, when he drove and was the best player on every line he was on, while the likes of Rantanen always played second fiddle and fed off superior players throughout their entire ELC.

Marner was one of the best young players of this century. He absolutely earned what he got. It was consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts, and he continues to earn it.

 

[Gabriel426]

They are both great players, playing on great teams it’s not surprising they’ve won rounds and cups.
I think most assume he was added to Team Canada because of Cooper.

Who assume it is due to Cooper?
Bc I have not heard anyone creditable said that Point is added as one of the first 6 players due to Cooper. It is a compliment to Point as Winner and Great player more than anything. Don’t understand why you have to downplay it. The list of Canadian players who didn’t get chosen for these 6 spots on Team Canada, include D Toews(Cup Winner), Stone(Cup Winner), Ekblad(Cup Winner), Stammer(Cup Winner), Barzal, Johnson, Hyman, Reinhart(Cup Winner), and the list goes on. There are great players that didn’t get chosen yet, no need to play down on players who already made the team.

Also Leafs, according to some is a pretty strong team and yet, they just couldn’t get out of the first round.

Don’t down play other great players when our Leafs BetaChokers- AM, MM, Willie and JT can’t get it done. As Leafs been the only team in the League that could ice THREE 10mil plus players, and the only team in the league in the Cap era that had three of the top seven highest paying forwards playing in their prime for 4-5yrs.

 

[thusk]

They did with Nylander and got him to sign for 6.9.
They didn't with Marner and he signed for 10.9.

It certainly looks like it worked!

He signed at 7 with a 22 goal 61 pts season high.
vs
marner 26 goal 94 pts...

Nylander was closer of what we could expect of knies this season than Marner when he resigned

 

[ACC1224]

Who assume it is due to Cooper?
Bc I have not heard anyone creditable said that Point is added as one of the first 6 players due to Cooper. It is a compliment to Point as Winner and Great player more than anything. Don’t understand why you have to downplay it. The list of Canadian players who didn’t get chosen for these 6 spots on Team Canada, include D Toews(Cup Winner), Stone(Cup Winner), Ekblad(Cup Winner), Stammer(Cup Winner), Barzal, Johnson, Hyman, Reinhart(Cup Winner), and the list goes on. There are great players that didn’t get chosen yet, no need to play down on players who already made the team.

Also Leafs, according to some is a pretty strong team and yet, they just couldn’t get out of the first round.

Don’t down play other great players when our Leafs BetaChokers- AM, MM, Willie and JT can’t get it done. As Leafs been the only team in the League that could ice THREE 10mil plus players, and the only team in the league in the Cap era that had three of the top seven highest paying forwards playing in their prime for 4-5yrs.

Not down playing anything but it’s not unreasonable to think when deciding on the last player to name Cooper took his own player.

 

[Confucius]

I think there might be something to this. Apparently Berube has said that Domi should shoot more (just one shot through 3 games IIRC) which suggests that you might be on to something.

According to the new technology the NHL uses, Domi’s shot is 10% weaker than Marner’s. Maybe that’s why he doesn’t shoot.

https://theleafsnation.com/news/nhl-edge-toronto-maple-leafs-fastest-skaters-hardest-

Hardest shot (in MPH)​

		Shot Speed
1	Matthews	91.43
2	Nylander	89.81
3	Liljegren	85.02
4	Rielly	84.88
5	Bertuzzi	84.73
6	Giordano	82.51
7	McCabe	81.83
8	Minten	81.39
9	Knies	81.21
10	Klingberg	80.77
11	Gregor	80.24
12	Jarnkrok	80.23
13	Tavares	79.11
14	Marner	77.87
15	Brodie	75.41
16	Holmberg	72.69
17	Domi	70.59
18	Reaves	69.20
19	Kampf	61.21

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not down playing anything but it’s not unreasonable to think when deciding on the last player to name Cooper took his own player.

You wouldn't be saying that if it was the Leafs coach who chose Marner for Canada though amirite?

 

[IPS]

Who assume it is due to Cooper?
Bc I have not heard anyone creditable said that Point is added as one of the first 6 players due to Cooper. It is a compliment to Point as Winner and Great player more than anything.

No it can't possibly be because they believe Point is the better player. Absolutely unfathomable.